Saturday, October 22, 2016

Being Rated is Overrated



I really do apologize for not posting as regularly as I did last year (apparently according to my post log, it's been about a month since the last one! (The Illinois game it seems)). This year has been a bit busy in terms of academics and trying to figure out what I want to do with my life that this just kind of slid down the priorities list. But don’t worry, I’m hopefully foreseeing that we’ll be back on a weekly basis starting this week. With that said I should probably do a giant recap. 

Giant Recap:

Nebraska is off to it’s best start since 2001 where they went 11-2 with a Heisman winner and almost national championship aspirations, and well, that’s looking pretty plausible right now (ok maybe not the national championship part). With Nebraska’s schedule, 11-2 is very doable at the moment, considering the current speed bumps are going at Wisconsin and at Ohio State….in back to back weeks. But we’ll hit those bumps next week and discuss further then. But let's take a tiny transition and take a look at this...just let this sink in for a minute (or two, I get ranty in a second)


Brief Intermission/Rest of the World In College Football:
 
I’ll also go ahead and take my brief “rest of the world in college football” tangent here as I’ll go on to discuss some of the rankings, which will eventually circle back to Nebraska and the recap. Which yes, I’ll also say that I will not be having any of my formulated rankings because I just do not have the time and it’s already what, week 8? Yeah not happening. Maybe I’ll give my personal rankings, maybe. But right now I need to take a deep breath. And laugh.


These AP voters man (insert multiple laughing cry emojis here). Who’s bright idea was it to put Tennessee as a 1) National Contender? 2) SEC Championship Contender? 3) Top 10 Team? 4) Top 15 Team? These are the kinds of problems I wanted to tackle/laugh at when I started doing this, and that is debunking all of these god damn overrated teams (actually also to help prove that there could very well be an SEC bias). And I don't even need my numbers to point out the disaster that has been Tennessee! My biggest issue with the AP rankings is that they start with pre-season rankings when we have minimal data on how a team will perform. We can generate a general idea based on returning starters and etc, but if the damage is enough then there are some pretty bold claims that are made in the preseason and I’ll highlight two of them as each go their own way:

Firstly, Washington was a preseason Top 15. This was a bold move as the only thing we could’ve known about Washington at the time was that last year they started trending in the right direction, and did not lose very many players (and of those that they did lose, were not superstars by any means), and their coach is the great mastermind Chris Petersen. “Who’s Chris Petersen?” *points to Boise State 2006-2013* that beauty is Chris Petersen. He put a program on the map and dared the AP voters to rank a mid-major team on his VERY FIRST YEAR. (which they are currently struggling to grasp that concept with Western Michigan this year). He’s a wizard I say! Now it took him a bit with Washington, with taking half of his career losses in three years at Washington alone. But look where Washington is at now, undefeated with a Heisman contender. I’ll ignore the fact that the Pac-12 has become wide open with Oregon falling off the face of the earth after they came to Nebraska and with Stanford finally realizing they’re overrated (McCaffery can only do so much! He has an undisclosed injury but I'm going to bet it's a back injury for carrying Stanford for the last few seasons) But it’s what Washington has done with the cake made of Pac-12 teams. Just absolutely devoured them. While it was a bold claim to say that in the preseason, is more so accurate now.

And secondly…my good ol’ friends from Tennessee (Kids and those with innocent eyes may want to fast forward these next three paragraphs, this gets a little NSFW. When you stop seeing excessive caps lock, you're safe. Tl;dr Tennessee is overrated). Oh man. Where do I begin. They’ve been overrated for years and I've appropriately hated them for years because no one fricken realizes how overrated they are!!! ESPECIALLY THESE FRICKEN AP VOTERS! “Huh they had a pretty meh season last year and the team isn’t changing much, they could maybe be an 8-4 team I guess…fuck it let’s put them Top 10” WHYYYYYYYYYY?!?!?!?!!? Why why why whywhwhwywhwhwhwhwhy. NAME ME ONE TIME IN RECENT HISTORY THAT TENNESSEE WAS ACTUALLY GOOD. The difference between Washington and Tennessee here in this instance is that Washington had some momentum towards the end of last year, and some current respect.  Tennessee was just a blind eye on the SEC bias from these damn AP voters. 

For shits and giggles, let’s explain why the fuck not Tennessee real quick though based on what they’ve done and how well that’s worked out for the AP voters this year. FIRST GAME OF THE YEAR, at home versus App State, not exactly a class A team but their mid-major status knows no bounds as they’ve transitioned from the FCS levels a few years ago. Tennessee…supposed SEC/National contender, FIRST GAME, FIRST EASY FOE, AT FLIPPING HOME, NEEDED OVERTIME. But wait! Here’s the kicker! Tennessee was the team that FORCED overtime because App State was slightly incompetent in their last drive, but they had more than their fair share of attempts to win that game that Tennessee should be ashamed of. They got away with one there. Appropriately they get a drop out of the Top 10, but the way the AP works (which I’ll bitch about further here in a minute after I get done bitching about Tennessee), we get to see that Tennessee is back in the Top 10 after a few weeks of struggling. They now host Ohio, not Ohio State, just regular old Ohio, another decent mid-major team, and struggle to beat them by a possession. Nothing from the AP. They actually went up because how the AP is designed. Now we get to see them go to Georgia, again not exactly high caliber, but a very manageable game for a supposed Top 10 team. Needed a fricken Hail Mary to win. Next week, hosting Texas A&M, down by quite a bit, A&M was about ready to put the hammer down, but Fumbling at the 1 Yard Line disease seemed to hit their locker room, and I’ll give some credit to Tennessee for driving it down the field to force overtime, BUT THEY SHOULDN’TVE. THEY HAD SEVEN, COUNT EM, SEEEEVVVVVEEEEEEEN TURNOVERS IN THAT GAME! SHOULDN'TVE BEEN CLOSE! Fortunately A&M put them in their place after 2OT. 

BUT HEY WERE THE AP VOTERS WE CAN DO WHATEVER THE EF WE WANT SO WE’LL KEEP TENNESSEE IN THE TOP 10 FOR WHEN THEY PLAY ALABAMA. BECAUSE RATINGS RIGHT? And I’ll admit I like Saban and Bama unlike a lot of the country, but even if I wasn’t an ok fan, I’m SUPER GLAD, that they put Tennessee where they belong. In the fucking trash. Last I checked a Top 10 matchup should not be a 30 some point blow out…especially when the team getting blown out is the home team. Fucking pathetic. Wait wait, don’t believe me? FACT CHECK: Michigan vs. Wisconsin, @ Michigan, only lost by a touchdown. Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, @ Wisconsin this time, only lost by a touchdown but this went into OT. THAT’S HOW YOU DO A TOP 10 MATCHUP (and now I’m scared for Wisconsin but again we’ll get there in a week)

(Squeamish eyes can look now) *sigh* Ok. Rant over. But let’s go back to these AP voters. They go off of preseason rankings and just move teams up or down a few spots accordingly. They DO NOT shake the boat as often as they should. Tennessee should have never ever been a Top 10 team, they have ZERO quality wins and I'll categorize losing to A&M in 2OT as a quality loss, but everyone knows that it should'ntve been. The fact that it took a merciless beat down by Alabama in Knoxville for the AP voters to finally realize what they have done is just sad. Tennessee is a Top 20 team sure, but they’re not. That. Good.

Back to the Recap:

Getting back on topic though is Nebraska and that picture above, and the fact that well, they’re not exactly a Top 10 team either. The only good win Nebraska has was against Oregon and they’ve quickly diminished the value of that victory (barely lost to an ok Colorado team, blown out by both Washingtons, one of which was at home). The only reason Nebraska made it to the Top 10 is because all the AP voters do is bump teams up for winning and bump them down for losing accordingly. They have very minimal accountability for quality of wins and losses. The only ok thing the AP voters have done is keep Wisconsin in the Top 10 despite 2 losses. When you lose to Ohio State and Michigan by a touchdown each (and take one of those teams into overtime) I'd say that's still worthy of Top 10 consideration, in fact I'd put Wisconsin above Nebraska, because well, next week....hahahah that'll be fun right? 

The offense has looked alright, playing Indiana wasn’t their best showing but that’s what you get when Westerkamp, Carter, and Ozigbo are all injured (and I think Moore saw limited action?) The defense however is really stepping up in a big way. The run defense has always been solid, but the pass defense is actually getting their shit together (yay), and probably at the best time of the season as Nebraska is hitting the meat of their schedule. But that's the issue. Nebraska can't have too many of these "struggle bus" games against Indiana, and sorta kinda Northwestern. Like yeah they were on the road buuuuuuuttttt stillllll.......

The Big Red Breakdown:

So Purdue. Or don't. Whatever. Nebraska fielded a JV team against them on the road last year and got their booty's handed to. This year revenge HAS to be on the minds of the team and every Nebraska fan because losing to Purdue is absolutely unacceptable regardless what kind of players they're playing. Ok well at least I'm expecting some merciless revenge beat down, because why not take some frustrations out on Purdue? Basically what I'm also saying is that if Nebraska wants some legitimacy in being a Top 10 team, they need to beat the living daylights out of Purdue today. Nebraska can't afford any more "close-ish" games. Worth noting that Purdue is playing for something as they fired their head coach recently...apparently. Gotta get that "signature win" to attract coaches to coach...Purdue....lol

Nebraska O vs Purdue D: Advantage Nebraska. Still a bit banged up, no Westerkamp, not sure how the other injuries are holding up. But still this is Purdue...

Nebraska D vs Purdue O: Edge Nebraska. So this is the one category I'll actually give credit to Purdue, they have a fairly lit offense. Sure Nebraska's D has stepped up, but the pass defense will be tested a bit more by a fairly successful gun-slinging offense in Purdue 

Special Teams: Advantage Nebraska. RIP Foltz

Prediction: Nebraska 52, Purdue 20 <--At least it needs to be around this ballpark if Nebraska wants to feel good going into Wisconsin