It has certainly been a while since I’ve last done one of
these. I took somewhat of an unintentional hiatus to try and figure out what
the heck I’m doing with my life (spoiler alert: still don’t know). Since we
last met, I graduated college and had to decide between going to graduate
school or go to the work force. To any younger folks reading this let me give
you a pro tip if you’re deciding between the two: commit to one. Don’t do what
I did and see what would happen, just go after what you want to do. Which somewhat
circles back to why I’m bringing this back. I was disappointed in myself that I
couldn’t regularly keep up to date with this blog through my senior year as
this is something that I do enjoy to kill time. Part of it was lack of said
time (as has been notorious in the past), and there was a part of me that felt
a lack of confidence in providing accurate analysis. Well, this is what I
(sorta kinda) went to school for and it showed up this past year in my classes
finally. Being able to accurately data mine statistics and see how they play
out ended up being my biggest final project for one of my classes. Projecting
baseball playoffs, specifically.
Insert convenient transition here. Yup, the All-Star break
in baseball was last week, marking the de-facto halfway point of the
season, despite most teams playing closer to 90 than 80 games, but whatever,
baseball is weird. Readers that have been with me through day one (S/O to those
readers) will know that projections at the All-Star break is something I’ve
done every year, and this year will be no different. However we’re going
another level deeper of analysis thanks to what I learned in my class, woohoo!
So, as usual, we’re going to look at historical trends of teams and how much
better/worse they perform after the break, because that seems to be working
well as shown in Exhibit A, last year’s results:
Projected
|
Actual
|
Pred Spread
|
Abs
|
Real Gain
|
|
Yankees
|
85-77
|
84-78
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
Rays
|
74-88
|
68-94
|
6
|
6
|
-6
|
Red Sox
|
88-74
|
93-69
|
-5
|
5
|
13
|
Blue Jays
|
89-73
|
89-73
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
Orioles
|
88-74
|
89-73
|
-1
|
1
|
1
|
White Sox
|
79-83
|
78-84
|
1
|
1
|
-8
|
Indians
|
89-73
|
94-67
|
-4.5
|
4.5
|
11
|
Tigers
|
82-80
|
86-75
|
-4.5
|
4.5
|
8
|
Royals
|
80-82
|
81-81
|
-1
|
1
|
-4
|
Twins
|
66-96
|
59-103
|
7
|
7
|
-20
|
Rangers
|
91-71
|
95-67
|
-4
|
4
|
10
|
Athletics
|
75-87
|
69-93
|
6
|
6
|
-11
|
Mariners
|
79-83
|
86-76
|
-7
|
7
|
9
|
Angels
|
77-85
|
74-88
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
Astros
|
81-81
|
84-78
|
-3
|
3
|
-1
|
Braves
|
66-96
|
68-93
|
-2.5
|
2.5
|
2
|
Mets
|
84-78
|
87-75
|
-3
|
3
|
6
|
Phillies
|
83-79
|
71-91
|
12
|
12
|
-14
|
Nationals
|
91-71
|
95-67
|
-4
|
4
|
10
|
Marlins
|
82-80
|
79-82
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
-4
|
Cubs
|
89-73
|
103-58
|
-14
|
14
|
27
|
Cardinals
|
86-76
|
86-76
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
Pirates
|
78-84
|
78-83
|
-0.5
|
0.5
|
-8
|
Brewers
|
75-87
|
73-89
|
2
|
2
|
-5
|
Reds
|
67-95
|
68-94
|
-1
|
1
|
-1
|
Padres
|
75-87
|
68-94
|
7
|
7
|
-13
|
Rockies
|
74-88
|
75-87
|
-1
|
1
|
-4
|
Giants
|
93-69
|
87-75
|
6
|
6
|
-12
|
Dodgers
|
90-72
|
91-71
|
-1
|
1
|
9
|
Diamondbacks
|
73-89
|
69-93
|
4
|
4
|
-10
|
League Average
|
0.016666667
|
3.816666667
|
|||
The “Projected” record is the record that my methods came up
with, “Actual” being what the team’s actual record was. “Pred Spread” is the
games over or under estimated from my model compared to their actual records,
positive numbers mean the model overstated, negative being understated. “Abs”
is just the absolute value of those numbers for the league average. And “Real
Gain” is the total games above .500 added/lost from their All-Star break
records (which I have thrown out last year’s info to make room for this year,
sorry). So for example I’ll pick on the Dodgers since they’re right down here:
Projected to go 90-72, actually went 91-71, which meant that my model
understated their record by 1 game (-1), absolute value of -1 is 1 (because
math), and their real gain of 9 means that they were 11 games above .500 at the
All-Star break if they ended the season 20 games over (again, math).
So, now to address the league average to show how close I
was. I like the number .0167 for the Pred Spread average to show that all else
equal, we we’re fairly spot on, if not a little generous. Sadly I can’t take
credit for that because that is not quite how it works, hence the absolute
value. The average of the absolute value is 3.8167, which means that overall,
we were about 4 games off, one way or another. For a whole league and a season that’s
162 games long, I’ll take it. Obviously being 4 games off in a tight division
can be life or death, like in the AL East for example. The Blue Jays and
Orioles finished 4 games back of the Red Sox for the division title. As also
evident, we projected that the Blue Jays would be the division winner, but narrowly,
one game over the Red Sox and Orioles. That’s where further analysis comes in.
We can’t just rely on historic trends to project a team’s record. By projecting
that the division would be separated by 1 game and 3 teams HAS TO call for
further analysis, which led me to call that yes, all three of those teams are
highly likely to be going to the playoffs whether it be by winning the division
or via the wild card.
Cue my class project, and attempting to predict for this
year. Too long; don’t want to explain version: I created three different
decision tree models, one model using every hitting statistic available on
baseballreference.com (great resource by the way), one model using every
pitching statistic, and one model including EVERYTHING (which was close to 60
variables, which when initially doing the project I was against, but I didn’t
like how the first two models turned out so I said fuck it. For science,
right?) Well turns out that giant ass combined model ended up being the most
accurate. Who knew. The Hitting model was most inaccurate, Pitching was the
most stingy in terms of “allowing” fewer teams in the playoffs. So real
briefly, here’s the teams that each of those three models say are near-locks
for the playoffs:
Hitting Model: Astros, Rays, Nationals, Dodgers, Yankees,
Mariners, Marlins, Reds, Tigers, Brewers, Mets, Indians, Athletics
Pitching Model: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox,
Yankees, Rockies, Royals, Brewers, Cardinals (barf), Rangers
Combined Model: Dodgers, Indians, Yankees, Brewers, Astros
As you can see, Hitting allows the most teams into the
playoffs, because we can quickly debunk most of those teams, namely lol’ing at
the Reds, Tigers, Mets and Athletics. Good for them to make the list at least
right? The Pitching model honestly isn’t much better right now, however I’d say
that the Royals, Rangers, and Cardinals have a more legitimate chance of making
the playoffs (rubs fingers with soap after typing ‘Cardinals into playoffs’).
Naturally, if you see your team on both the Hitting and Pitching models,
shocker, they’re going to be on the Combined model, but also looking hella good
this year. These four teams are the Dodgers (most likely winner of NL West),
Indians (most likely winner of AL Central), Yankees (Possible winner of AL East,
easy contender for wild card), and the Brewers (Possible winner of NL Central,
possible contender for wild card. More on that later). “But hey dude, what
about the Astros? They’re on the list too.” Great observation! The way my
Combined model ended up working is by progressing through the following checks:
1st: Pitching. Namely ERA+, which is a team’s adjusted ERA after
factoring in the different ballparks they play in. 100 is average, and higher
the better. Combined model wants >106 (which is the same criteria that the
Pitching model asks for). If a team passes that check, then they go to the same
Hitting model check of an OPS+ > 98, which is exactly the same as ERA+,
except it tracks a team’s OPS. HOWEVER, a saving grace of the Combined model (or
an additional stingy check, depending how you look at it) is that if the 1st
ERA+ check is failed, the 2nd check is OPS+ again, except the
qualifying value is 104, which makes it a bit harder to pass. This shows that
while yes pitching is a great indicator of a playoff team, we can expect torrid
offenses to do well also. Which is why the Astros pass in this case, despite
not being predicted on the Pitching model.
That was a lot longer than I was hoping it to be, so props
if you read all of that mumbo jumbo. But let’s get to the fun part. The
real-time standings, and some real-time analysis and potential biases that
hopefully yall love me for providing. The computer might like a Dodgers v
Astros World Series, but will it shake up that way? This time around, I’ll be
giving a break of the division as a whole, and then a snip-it of each team.
Additionally, I went ahead and calculated remaining strengths of schedule to
see if that will play out, and it probably will (This was done by taking the
winning percentages of teams and multiplying them out based on how many games
they play with said team). As a whole, every division except the NL West has
back logged their divisional games, meaning that roughly, the last 3 to 5
series a team will play, will be an in-division team, which could shake things
up considerably come September.
(Standings are as of entering July 18th)
AL East:
Leader: Boston Red Sox by 2 games on the Rays, 3.5 on the
Yankees
Projected Winner: Red Sox by 1-3 games over the Yankees and
Rays
Once again, the AL East is the most competitive division in
baseball, with the last place teams (Orioles and Blue Jays) only 8.5 games back
of the Red Sox, very much in striking distance if things play out nicely. This
year’s edition features the Yankees comeback (if you want to call it one), and
the Rays being relevant in place of the Blue Jays and Orioles last year. Not to
slander the Blue Jays and Orioles by any means, it is just simply not their
year this year. Regardless of who wins, I still expect at least one wild card
to come from the East, very likely the East will get two again this year the
way the rest of the AL could be shaping up.
Boston Red Sox
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in East, 5th Easiest in AL, 12th Easiest in MLB)
Just as dominate as they were last year, with some minor concerning holes in the starting rotation. Great offense, great bullpen, and good-enough defense, but Price hasn’t exactly been all that they’ve been hoping to be, and outside of Sale, it has been pretty up and down in the rotation. The Red Sox also just dumped Pablo Sandoval, so maybe there is some rocky weather ahead with the organization? They just need to maintain the ship well enough to get out of the AL East. Problem is, unless they correct those issues, they won’t be going for vengeance.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in East, 5th Easiest in AL, 12th Easiest in MLB)
Just as dominate as they were last year, with some minor concerning holes in the starting rotation. Great offense, great bullpen, and good-enough defense, but Price hasn’t exactly been all that they’ve been hoping to be, and outside of Sale, it has been pretty up and down in the rotation. The Red Sox also just dumped Pablo Sandoval, so maybe there is some rocky weather ahead with the organization? They just need to maintain the ship well enough to get out of the AL East. Problem is, unless they correct those issues, they won’t be going for vengeance.
Tampa Bay Rays
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in East, 6th Easiest in AL, 13th Easiest in MLB)
A surprise this year, but a welcome one. The Rays have been quietly good this year behind consistent hitting and starting pitching. It’s just a shame that their bullpen is trash. Beyond the strength of their schedule, the Rays also have A LOT of back-to-back four game series’ with very little rest. Could that play a factor? Maybe. The bigger question for the Rays revolves around their “ace” Archer and whether or not the Rays will trade him off at the deadline. If they keep him, then they need to be making that playoff push a bit more aggressively. If they sell him, can his replacement do well enough to maintain what the Rays have going to still get into the playoffs? If they can stick around the Yankees, the Rays should be able to snipe one of those wild card spots.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in East, 6th Easiest in AL, 13th Easiest in MLB)
A surprise this year, but a welcome one. The Rays have been quietly good this year behind consistent hitting and starting pitching. It’s just a shame that their bullpen is trash. Beyond the strength of their schedule, the Rays also have A LOT of back-to-back four game series’ with very little rest. Could that play a factor? Maybe. The bigger question for the Rays revolves around their “ace” Archer and whether or not the Rays will trade him off at the deadline. If they keep him, then they need to be making that playoff push a bit more aggressively. If they sell him, can his replacement do well enough to maintain what the Rays have going to still get into the playoffs? If they can stick around the Yankees, the Rays should be able to snipe one of those wild card spots.
New York Yankees
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in East, 3rd Hardest in AL, 3rd Hardest in MLB)
The young Yankees have taken the league by storm. Except they fell flat on their asses in June and skidded down from a couple games up in the lead, to third in their division. They have to learn how to deal with adversity right? Adversity meaning a dry spell anyway. But it doesn’t get easier for the Yankees as they have the 3rd hardest schedule remaining. Their offense is unquestioned, and their bullpen is still dominating. Unfortunately, the problem with the Yankees is an inconsistent starting rotation. Tanaka is a bust (fight me), Pineda is overrated and out for the year anyway according to reports, Sabathia is their only bright spot, and everyone else just kind of gets spot starts, whether it is good or bad. It is not going to get easier for the Yankees if they want to hang on to a wild card spot. I hear there’s a team in the Central that could use a fallout such as this inevitable one.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in East, 3rd Hardest in AL, 3rd Hardest in MLB)
The young Yankees have taken the league by storm. Except they fell flat on their asses in June and skidded down from a couple games up in the lead, to third in their division. They have to learn how to deal with adversity right? Adversity meaning a dry spell anyway. But it doesn’t get easier for the Yankees as they have the 3rd hardest schedule remaining. Their offense is unquestioned, and their bullpen is still dominating. Unfortunately, the problem with the Yankees is an inconsistent starting rotation. Tanaka is a bust (fight me), Pineda is overrated and out for the year anyway according to reports, Sabathia is their only bright spot, and everyone else just kind of gets spot starts, whether it is good or bad. It is not going to get easier for the Yankees if they want to hang on to a wild card spot. I hear there’s a team in the Central that could use a fallout such as this inevitable one.
Toronto Blue Jays
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in East, 4th Hardest in AL, 5th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Blue Jays. Injuries left and right, and just hasn’t been able to get it together. Don’t expect a late playoff push from these guys this year, on to next year!
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in East, 4th Hardest in AL, 5th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Blue Jays. Injuries left and right, and just hasn’t been able to get it together. Don’t expect a late playoff push from these guys this year, on to next year!
Baltimore Orioles
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in East, 5th Hardest in AL, 10th Hardest in MLB)
Not quite as RIP as the Blue Jays, as the Orioles will be getting their shut down closer back soon, but still inconsistent hitting and spotty starting pitching has sort of already dug a hole for the Orioles. Being 8.5 back in a tight division is still pretty impressive, and if the pieces fall correctly, they can get back into the wild card race, but I’m not putting my money on them.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in East, 5th Hardest in AL, 10th Hardest in MLB)
Not quite as RIP as the Blue Jays, as the Orioles will be getting their shut down closer back soon, but still inconsistent hitting and spotty starting pitching has sort of already dug a hole for the Orioles. Being 8.5 back in a tight division is still pretty impressive, and if the pieces fall correctly, they can get back into the wild card race, but I’m not putting my money on them.
AL Central:
Leader: Cleveland Indians by 1.5 games on the Twins, 3 on
the Royals
Projected Winner: Indians by 5-7 games on the Royals
The AL Central has drawn some similarities to the NL Central
in the fact that their runaway team hasn’t exactly ran away with the division.
The Indians entered the season as a favorite to make it back into the World
Series and completely obliterate the AL Central. But that hasn’t been the case
in the first half. It took a while for the Indians to even establish dominance
as a division leader away from the Twins, and they’re only 2.5 games up right
now against that chippy squad. But it’s not the Twins that the Indians need to
worry about…
Cleveland Indians
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in Central, 4th Easiest in AL, 11th Easiest in MLB)
The good news for the Indians, is that yes, they pretty much have a cake schedule to hopefully pad their Central lead is they are more than likely playoff bound. Like the Indians of last year, there aren’t many holes to poke through. Fairly consistent hitting, great pitching and a great bullpen. Just don’t get injured and maybe you can give the Astros a run for their money. It would be more concerning if the Indians fell apart with their fairly simple schedule.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in Central, 4th Easiest in AL, 11th Easiest in MLB)
The good news for the Indians, is that yes, they pretty much have a cake schedule to hopefully pad their Central lead is they are more than likely playoff bound. Like the Indians of last year, there aren’t many holes to poke through. Fairly consistent hitting, great pitching and a great bullpen. Just don’t get injured and maybe you can give the Astros a run for their money. It would be more concerning if the Indians fell apart with their fairly simple schedule.
Minnesota Twins
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in Central, 6th Hardest in AL, 11th Hardest in MLB)
So here is the thing with the Twins. Two years ago they turned in a decent record, which I was semi hopeful that they would turn that into success that year. Well that was not the case. Alright so last year should be promising right? RIGHT? Ehh nope. Worst record in the AL. So let’s try again this year??? This is the same core that was around two years ago, so naturally I’m expecting them to collapse as they did two years ago. They’re quietly consistent, like the Rays are this year. Except I have less hope for the Twins to figure things out like the Rays might be able to. Which means…….
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in Central, 6th Hardest in AL, 11th Hardest in MLB)
So here is the thing with the Twins. Two years ago they turned in a decent record, which I was semi hopeful that they would turn that into success that year. Well that was not the case. Alright so last year should be promising right? RIGHT? Ehh nope. Worst record in the AL. So let’s try again this year??? This is the same core that was around two years ago, so naturally I’m expecting them to collapse as they did two years ago. They’re quietly consistent, like the Rays are this year. Except I have less hope for the Twins to figure things out like the Rays might be able to. Which means…….
Kansas City Royals
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in Central, 7th Easiest in AL, 14th Easiest in MLB) ….the Royals are the real threat to the Indians in the Central, and a potential threat to the AL East for sniping one of the wild card spots away from them should the Rays or Yankees (or both) collapse. The Royals got hot at the right time entering the All-Star break by tearing the month of June a new one. The question becomes is can they put it together for at least a wild card run? Their bullpen is still scary, their starting pitching has woken up, they just need the bats to finally roll out of bed in order to make a solid case for the playoffs.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in Central, 7th Easiest in AL, 14th Easiest in MLB) ….the Royals are the real threat to the Indians in the Central, and a potential threat to the AL East for sniping one of the wild card spots away from them should the Rays or Yankees (or both) collapse. The Royals got hot at the right time entering the All-Star break by tearing the month of June a new one. The question becomes is can they put it together for at least a wild card run? Their bullpen is still scary, their starting pitching has woken up, they just need the bats to finally roll out of bed in order to make a solid case for the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in Central, 2nd Hardest in AL, 2nd Hardest in MLB) RIP Tigers. Sell sell sell. Not even Verlander can save their grace. Which if I were the Tigers, I’d consider selling Verlander. He’s lost his magic. The Tigers are only good for a few key upsets here and there to help other teams fighting for a division race, not necessarily their own cause though.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in Central, 2nd Hardest in AL, 2nd Hardest in MLB) RIP Tigers. Sell sell sell. Not even Verlander can save their grace. Which if I were the Tigers, I’d consider selling Verlander. He’s lost his magic. The Tigers are only good for a few key upsets here and there to help other teams fighting for a division race, not necessarily their own cause though.
Chicago White Sox
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest overall)
RIP White Sox. They’ve already begun selling by shipping Quintana 8 miles north in Chicago traffic (thank you by the way), what other prospects can the White Sox bring in as they begin the hunt for their future? (Weren’t the White Sox supposed to be good a few years ago…?)
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest overall)
RIP White Sox. They’ve already begun selling by shipping Quintana 8 miles north in Chicago traffic (thank you by the way), what other prospects can the White Sox bring in as they begin the hunt for their future? (Weren’t the White Sox supposed to be good a few years ago…?)
AL West:
Leader: Houston Astros by a fuck ton over everyone
Projected Winner: Do I even need to? Astros by 10+ games
over the Angels and Rangers
What was supposed to be a competitive division has turned
into Astro’s batting practice as they are a whopping 16.5 games up on the
Rangers with no signs of slowing down. It’s just a matter of who can break out
for a wild card chance at this point.
Houston Astros
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in West, Easiest in AL, 4th Easiest in MLB)
What’s even more alarming is that there is zero reason the Astros will slow down (Unless you are an Astros fan, then this is hilariously great news to hear). The only hole I can think of to poke through would be their starting rotation (and maybe their bullpen. Can’t use the bullpen if the starter pitches out the game *temple tap*). They’ve been a bit injured there, but once they’re at full strength, yikes. Again, just don’t get injured and the Astros should be good to go for the playoffs, and even the World Series, simply by just murdering baseballs.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in West, Easiest in AL, 4th Easiest in MLB)
What’s even more alarming is that there is zero reason the Astros will slow down (Unless you are an Astros fan, then this is hilariously great news to hear). The only hole I can think of to poke through would be their starting rotation (and maybe their bullpen. Can’t use the bullpen if the starter pitches out the game *temple tap*). They’ve been a bit injured there, but once they’re at full strength, yikes. Again, just don’t get injured and the Astros should be good to go for the playoffs, and even the World Series, simply by just murdering baseballs.
Texas Rangers
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in West, 7th Hardest in AL, 14th Hardest in MLB)
The Rangers were my preseason pick to win the division and I guess someone decided to tell the Astros. Realistically though, the Rangers are one bullpen away from being great again. While they can be competitive, they are not my pick to lurk in the wild card spots. Joey Gallo looks good though, finally.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in West, 7th Hardest in AL, 14th Hardest in MLB)
The Rangers were my preseason pick to win the division and I guess someone decided to tell the Astros. Realistically though, the Rangers are one bullpen away from being great again. While they can be competitive, they are not my pick to lurk in the wild card spots. Joey Gallo looks good though, finally.
Los Angeles Angels
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in West, 2nd Easiest in AL, 5th Easiest in MLB)
And no it’s not because of the Angels easy schedule. The Angels have better potential to crack at the wild card, because much like the Rays, they’ve been quietly consistent. It’s always the quiet teams that grab your attention at the last minute. The better thing with the Angels too, is that the noise people can hear, has been without Trout for much of the first half. And they’re still around .500, impressive! Let’s just work on that pitching, Trout can’t do EVERYTHING.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in West, 2nd Easiest in AL, 5th Easiest in MLB)
And no it’s not because of the Angels easy schedule. The Angels have better potential to crack at the wild card, because much like the Rays, they’ve been quietly consistent. It’s always the quiet teams that grab your attention at the last minute. The better thing with the Angels too, is that the noise people can hear, has been without Trout for much of the first half. And they’re still around .500, impressive! Let’s just work on that pitching, Trout can’t do EVERYTHING.
Seattle Mariners
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in West, 8th Hardest in AL, 16th Hardest in MLB)
It always seems like the Mariners are one piece away from being relevant, and each year it has been a different piece. This year it has been a lack of pitching altogether. Yes yes I know they’ve been injured in that department, but let’s start looking to be more of a complete team next time, ok Mariners?
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in West, 8th Hardest in AL, 16th Hardest in MLB)
It always seems like the Mariners are one piece away from being relevant, and each year it has been a different piece. This year it has been a lack of pitching altogether. Yes yes I know they’ve been injured in that department, but let’s start looking to be more of a complete team next time, ok Mariners?
Oakland Athletics
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in West, 3rd Easiest in AL, 8th Easiest in MLB)
RIP Athletics. I don’t care what the Hitting Model says, you ain’t going anywhere. Sell Gray to the Cubs pls.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in West, 3rd Easiest in AL, 8th Easiest in MLB)
RIP Athletics. I don’t care what the Hitting Model says, you ain’t going anywhere. Sell Gray to the Cubs pls.
AL Wild Card:
Leaders: Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) and New York Yankees, 5 games
up on the Twins, 1.5 on the Mariners, 2 on the Royals, 2.5 on the Rangers, 3 on
the Angels
Projected Winners: Yankees and Royals, 1-3 games over the
Rays and Angels
The AL Wild Card gets interesting. As mentioned earlier, an
expected fallout from one of the AL East teams is to be expected, whether it be
the Rays selling out or the Yankees falling into oblivion with injuries and
overrated-ness. One of those two will get one of the spots, which opens up the
second spot for another AL contender. Cue the Royals and Angels. The Royals are
HOT, and if they can’t take down the Indians, their path to the wild card looks
pretty good compared to the Angels. But that shouldn’t stop the Angels. They
have played pretty well without Trout, and now that he is healthy, the Angels can
take a pretty good run at it. The Angels won’t get far into the playoffs, but
they can still at least make it, right?
NL East:
Leader: Washington Nationals by 10.5 on the Braves
Projected Winner: Nationals by 10+ on the Braves
If it wasn’t for the NL Central, the NL East would most
likely be the worst division in the league. Like, yes, the Nationals are
supposed to be clearly front-running, but they are doing it while still missing
a vital part of the game (and by missing, I mean league worst bullpen) because
the rest of the division suuuuccckkkkssssss. Braves are actually being
mediocre, the Marlins are still suffering, the Mets keep getting injured, and
weren’t the Phillies supposed to be good sometime ago?
Washington Nationals
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in East, 5th Hardest in NL, 9th Hardest in MLB)
The Nationals have just about everything going for them; great starting pitching, great offense, easy division. But holy shit that bullpen is more like bullshit. Worst in the league in terms of ERA and blown saves, they have to rely on their dominate offense to build enough of a lead to where they don’t have to worry about the bullpen blowing the lead. That’s all fine and dandy when they play shit teams, but that won’t cut it in the playoffs against real competition. They need to address this before the trade deadline.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in East, 5th Hardest in NL, 9th Hardest in MLB)
The Nationals have just about everything going for them; great starting pitching, great offense, easy division. But holy shit that bullpen is more like bullshit. Worst in the league in terms of ERA and blown saves, they have to rely on their dominate offense to build enough of a lead to where they don’t have to worry about the bullpen blowing the lead. That’s all fine and dandy when they play shit teams, but that won’t cut it in the playoffs against real competition. They need to address this before the trade deadline.
Atlanta Braves
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in East, 4th Hardest in NL, 8th Hardest in MLB)
For once after a few shit years, the Braves are looking quality and possibly could go wild card hunting if they string together some more wins. Since Matt Adams came around to fill in for the injured Freeman, the offense has been doing pretty well, and Adams is doing significantly better than when he was in St. Louis (I mean, if you left that hellhole, wouldn’t you be doing better too?). But will mediocrity bring about the playoffs in Atlanta? No.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in East, 4th Hardest in NL, 8th Hardest in MLB)
For once after a few shit years, the Braves are looking quality and possibly could go wild card hunting if they string together some more wins. Since Matt Adams came around to fill in for the injured Freeman, the offense has been doing pretty well, and Adams is doing significantly better than when he was in St. Louis (I mean, if you left that hellhole, wouldn’t you be doing better too?). But will mediocrity bring about the playoffs in Atlanta? No.
New York Mets
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in East, 7th Hardest in NL, 13th Hardest in MLB) Remember when the Mets were in the World Series? Remember when they had great pitching and good enough offense? Remember when they were healthy? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in East, 7th Hardest in NL, 13th Hardest in MLB) Remember when the Mets were in the World Series? Remember when they had great pitching and good enough offense? Remember when they were healthy? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Miami Marlins
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in East, 6th Easiest in NL, 9th Easiest in MLB)
RIP Fernandez, which ultimately leads to RIP Marlins. It is not easy losing your ace pitcher to a tragedy like that, the question becomes how much will the Marlins sell at the deadline?
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in East, 6th Easiest in NL, 9th Easiest in MLB)
RIP Fernandez, which ultimately leads to RIP Marlins. It is not easy losing your ace pitcher to a tragedy like that, the question becomes how much will the Marlins sell at the deadline?
Philadelphia Phillies
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in East, Hardest in NL, 4th Hardest in MLB) Again….weren’t the Phillies supposed to be good…? No? Just me?
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in East, Hardest in NL, 4th Hardest in MLB) Again….weren’t the Phillies supposed to be good…? No? Just me?
NL Central:
Leader: Milwaukee Brewers by 3.5 games on the Cubs
Projected Winner: Computer: Brewers by 1-3 over the Cubs,
Me: Cubs by 5-7 over the Brewers (Second half hype!)
Yeesh what has happened here. One year removed from the
World Series, where the Cubs were supposed to be running up Astro-like numbers
in the NL Central race, we see the fucking Brewers up by 3.5 for the lead and
the Cubs struggling to stay .500 in one of the worst/most disappointing
divisions in the league. We knew about the Cardinals and the Reds being shit
shows, the Pirates are always a question mark (this year they elected to be
shit), and the Brewers were SUPPOSED to be shit, which meant the Cubs could have
easily been 10+ games ahead in the Central. But nope. Regressing to the
mean/World Series hangover has hurt the Cubs big time, and all due respect to
the Brewers, they have taken advantage of that. Will it hold though? The
All-Star break seems to be the answer the Cubs were looking for.
Milwaukee Brewers
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in the League)
Again, the Brewers were expected to be remotely mediocre, their current record is about a couple games over what was expected, so I’m not terribly shocked by their success necessarily. But damn have they taken advantage of the Cubs shitty first half. A great offense coupled with some mediocre starting pitching and a great bullpen has done well for the Brewers in the first half, but will it hold? Having the easiest second half schedule seems to think so. But one sweep from the Cubs…
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in the League)
Again, the Brewers were expected to be remotely mediocre, their current record is about a couple games over what was expected, so I’m not terribly shocked by their success necessarily. But damn have they taken advantage of the Cubs shitty first half. A great offense coupled with some mediocre starting pitching and a great bullpen has done well for the Brewers in the first half, but will it hold? Having the easiest second half schedule seems to think so. But one sweep from the Cubs…
Chicago Cubs
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in Central, 4th Easiest in NL, 6th Easiest in MLB)
The first half of the season was not friendly at all to the Cubs. And a bit of that was regressing to the mean a bit from last year. You can’t deny that they definitely overperformed en-route to the World Series last year. But they’re not just regressing to the mean, they’re getting below average. Crappy hitting from their sluggers, abysmal pitching, and the still shit hole that is their bullpen (but the hole has a shining light at the end, that light being Wade Davis, who the Cubs got in a STEAL from the Royals). What was supposed to be the runaway Central, they are now fighting to stay around .500. Truthfully, I think the shelling that the Pirates gave the Cubs before the break was exactly what the Cubs needed to wake up and realize “Holy shit, we’re losing to the fucking Brewers”. It’s time they do something about it. (And time they did by picking up Quintana). The Cubs have historically been a second half team, after all. (History being the last three/four years)
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in Central, 4th Easiest in NL, 6th Easiest in MLB)
The first half of the season was not friendly at all to the Cubs. And a bit of that was regressing to the mean a bit from last year. You can’t deny that they definitely overperformed en-route to the World Series last year. But they’re not just regressing to the mean, they’re getting below average. Crappy hitting from their sluggers, abysmal pitching, and the still shit hole that is their bullpen (but the hole has a shining light at the end, that light being Wade Davis, who the Cubs got in a STEAL from the Royals). What was supposed to be the runaway Central, they are now fighting to stay around .500. Truthfully, I think the shelling that the Pirates gave the Cubs before the break was exactly what the Cubs needed to wake up and realize “Holy shit, we’re losing to the fucking Brewers”. It’s time they do something about it. (And time they did by picking up Quintana). The Cubs have historically been a second half team, after all. (History being the last three/four years)
St. Louis Cardinals
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in Central, 5th Easiest in NL, 7th Easiest in MLB)
The only good thing that I’ll ever commend the Cardinals on having is a stellar bullpen and a pretty lit offense. Everything else their fans blow out of proportion. The starting rotation seemed to have skipped a beat with their “Aces of the Past, Present, Future”. Past: Wainwright (old af and doesn’t have it anymore), Present: Wacha (Whoops, he sucks now), Future: Martinez (He went ahead and slipped into the Present role, but even still he struggles from time to time) and Leake and Lynn are just bad. Keep rebuilding, you Crapinals.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in Central, 5th Easiest in NL, 7th Easiest in MLB)
The only good thing that I’ll ever commend the Cardinals on having is a stellar bullpen and a pretty lit offense. Everything else their fans blow out of proportion. The starting rotation seemed to have skipped a beat with their “Aces of the Past, Present, Future”. Past: Wainwright (old af and doesn’t have it anymore), Present: Wacha (Whoops, he sucks now), Future: Martinez (He went ahead and slipped into the Present role, but even still he struggles from time to time) and Leake and Lynn are just bad. Keep rebuilding, you Crapinals.
Pittsburgh Pirates
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in Central, 7th Easiest in NL, 10th Easiest in MLB)
I can never get a good read on the Pirates. After hitting their 98-win season, they’ve just kind of been hanging around. Always expecting to do great things with their core team and McCutchen, but never doing so. This year seems to be the same story, except featuring a rumor of trading McCutchen. If they do, the Pirates will be entering total rebuild mode. Go ahead and do the Central a favor and keep beating the Cardinals (and the Brewers from time to time please. And never ever shell the Cubs again. Kthxbye.)
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in Central, 7th Easiest in NL, 10th Easiest in MLB)
I can never get a good read on the Pirates. After hitting their 98-win season, they’ve just kind of been hanging around. Always expecting to do great things with their core team and McCutchen, but never doing so. This year seems to be the same story, except featuring a rumor of trading McCutchen. If they do, the Pirates will be entering total rebuild mode. Go ahead and do the Central a favor and keep beating the Cardinals (and the Brewers from time to time please. And never ever shell the Cubs again. Kthxbye.)
Cincinnati Reds
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in Central, 8th Hardest in NL, 15th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Reds. Remember when they led the NL Central for a few days and everyone thought the Reds we’re going to be the dark horse to the Cubs shitty season? I guess the Brewers had a few words to say about that…
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in Central, 8th Hardest in NL, 15th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Reds. Remember when they led the NL Central for a few days and everyone thought the Reds we’re going to be the dark horse to the Cubs shitty season? I guess the Brewers had a few words to say about that…
NL West:
Leader: Los Angeles Dodgers by 10.5 games on the
Diamondbacks, 11 on the Rockies
Projected Winner: Dodgers by 10+ on the Diamondbacks
So here’s the quirky thing about the NL West. Yes, three of
the best teams are coming from the same division despite the Dodgers opening up
a 10 game lead after the break. Thing is, where as every other division has
back-logged their division games, the NL West has already beaten each other up
for the most part. Aside from the Giants, the NL West only has about 2 of their
last 6 series against each other, which accounts for 1) Why the Dodgers have
said big lead over “good” teams, and 2) The fact that the Dodgers and Rockies
have the next two easiest schedules in the league behind the Brewers. Where it
really gets weird, is between the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. Which team is
actually good?
Los Angeles Dodgers
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in West, 2nd Easiest in NL, 2nd Easiest in MLB)
The Dodgers are indeed ripping through the season, however there are some question marks from the most-likely NL World Series representative. Their starting pitching. Blasphemy I know, how dare I talk bad about Kershaw and company. Well I am. Kershaw has actually been losing it a bit. I mean, I’d still take him any day of the week, but he hasn’t quite been Kershaw-esque. Ryu and Maeda have also been certain busts, yet somehow the other no-names have been stepping up their game. But again, the question begs, how long will their no-names last? The Dodgers are certainly favorites to get out of the NL thanks to the rest of their game, but can they last in the World Series? (Or can the Cubs sneak up on them?)
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Easiest in West, 2nd Easiest in NL, 2nd Easiest in MLB)
The Dodgers are indeed ripping through the season, however there are some question marks from the most-likely NL World Series representative. Their starting pitching. Blasphemy I know, how dare I talk bad about Kershaw and company. Well I am. Kershaw has actually been losing it a bit. I mean, I’d still take him any day of the week, but he hasn’t quite been Kershaw-esque. Ryu and Maeda have also been certain busts, yet somehow the other no-names have been stepping up their game. But again, the question begs, how long will their no-names last? The Dodgers are certainly favorites to get out of the NL thanks to the rest of their game, but can they last in the World Series? (Or can the Cubs sneak up on them?)
Arizona Diamondbacks
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in West, 6th Hardest in NL, 12th Hardest in MLB)
The Diamondbacks have quietly put together a good season behind great starting pitching and great offense. Definitely favorites to land a wild card spot, but I’m also saying that they are susceptible to a late season collapse. If they do land in the playoffs, how much noise will they be able to make?
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 3rd in West, 6th Hardest in NL, 12th Hardest in MLB)
The Diamondbacks have quietly put together a good season behind great starting pitching and great offense. Definitely favorites to land a wild card spot, but I’m also saying that they are susceptible to a late season collapse. If they do land in the playoffs, how much noise will they be able to make?
Colorado Rockies
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in West, 3rd Easiest in NL, 3rd Easiest in MLB)
The Rockies have a bit of an identity crisis, or an arch-rival named June. The Rockies were smooth sailing until June rolled around, and then they just absolutely tailspinned into the All-Star break, including a 10-game losing streak. This was the year where they had great pitching to go along with their great offense, but it seems that some holes are appearing with the rotation, and they can’t score any runs outside of Coors field. Most likely candidate for an epic collapse out of the West, but let’s see if they can keep it together with their easy schedule.
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Easiest in West, 3rd Easiest in NL, 3rd Easiest in MLB)
The Rockies have a bit of an identity crisis, or an arch-rival named June. The Rockies were smooth sailing until June rolled around, and then they just absolutely tailspinned into the All-Star break, including a 10-game losing streak. This was the year where they had great pitching to go along with their great offense, but it seems that some holes are appearing with the rotation, and they can’t score any runs outside of Coors field. Most likely candidate for an epic collapse out of the West, but let’s see if they can keep it together with their easy schedule.
San Diego Padres
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in West, 2nd Hardest in NL, 6th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Padres. Keep rebuilding!
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: Hardest in West, 2nd Hardest in NL, 6th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Padres. Keep rebuilding!
San Francisco Giants
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in West, 3rd Hardest in NL, 7th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Giants. Yes, it is an odd year, but holy shit. They’re not supposed to be THIS bad. Pitching has completely fallen apart, hitting hasn’t been quite as good. Maybe the revival of their lord and savior Bumgarner can get them back to around .500? Maybe?
(Strength of Schedule Remaining: 2nd Hardest in West, 3rd Hardest in NL, 7th Hardest in MLB)
RIP Giants. Yes, it is an odd year, but holy shit. They’re not supposed to be THIS bad. Pitching has completely fallen apart, hitting hasn’t been quite as good. Maybe the revival of their lord and savior Bumgarner can get them back to around .500? Maybe?
NL Wild Card:
Leaders: Arizona Diamondbacks (+.5) and Colorado Rockies, up
by 5.5 on the Cubs, 7 on the Braves
Projected Winner: Diamondbacks and Brewers/Cubs by 1-3 over
the Rockies
Here’s the deal. One of the NL West teams will get one,
preference to the Diamondbacks as least likely to fuck up. The question
becomes, will the Rockies fuck up enough to open up that second spot for the NL
Central loser? Can the Braves sneak into the picture? It honestly looks like a
three team race between the two NL West losers and the NL Central loser. Would
also like to point out that there was a time where the Rockies (2nd
Wild Card) lead over the Cubs (First out) was LARGER than the 2nd
Wild Card spot to dead last in the AL. That just goes to show how competitive the
AL has been this year (Even still, from 2nd Spot to dead last is
only 8.5 games, which is one hot streak/cold streak away from flipping the
table)
Playoff Predictions:
So in the AL we have the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Rays and
Royals
NL we got Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Brewers
This is where things get interesting. Every NL team has
their issue (Bullpen, Pitching, Starting Rotation, Starting Rotation,
Mediocrity, respectively). Frankly, no matter who comes out of the NL, the AL
has a heavy advantage of winning the World Series this year. But who?
AL Wild Card: Royals @ Rays – Royals too hot, despite
playing similar ball, the Royals can do more damage against the Rays bullpen
Divisional Series: Royals @ Astros – Astros. I mean come on.
Indians @ Red Sox – Red Sox. It was supposed to be the Red
Sox year last year, that didn’t happen. It won’t happen again this year, but
they can progress through a not-so-flashy Indians team right? Right?
ALCS: Red Sox @ Astros – Astros. Long live the Astros,
barring a still injured starting rotation. No wonder the Cardinals wanted to
hack their systems.
NL Wild Card: Brewers @ Diamondbacks – I can see this one
going either way, but I’m giving it to the Brewers. They have been quietly good
this season and making all the right moves to take advantage of the lead they
have in the Central
Divisional Series: Brewers @ Dodgers – Dodgers. Despite the
issues, the Dodgers are pretty explosive.
Cubs @ Nationals – Cubs. I would really like to see the Cubs
get this far, because if they do, they’re smart enough (hopefully) to make
another solid run. But don’t get me wrong, they still have their issues too,
Nationals might have bigger ones though.
NLCS: Cubs @ Dodgers – Cubs. I told myself I wouldn’t put
the Cubs back in the World Series, but again, if they can bring it together in
the second half, they can run with it. Watch the Dodgers with some injuries or
mediocrity.
World Series: Cubs @ Astros (lol) – Astros. The old NL
Central matchup sees light in the World Series. Unfortunately, if the Cubs even
make it this far, their glaring issues that held them up in the first half of
the season will be gladly exploited by a hopefully healthy Astros team.
Astros in 6.
Don’t worry I’ll still cry if the Cubs make it this far and
lose despite my minimal expectations.
