Finishing Strong (Vs. Illinois)

Recap:

That was a good, sound, almost clean game. A 5 point loss on the road against Ohio State is nothing to shy away from, however it should've been much worse. Ohio State was actually playing piss poor with their game plan. They wanted to use Nebraska as a "warm up" team, to prove they can run the ball with their below-average running offense against Nebraska's above-average running defense. And I mean, I don't know, it kind of worked? However what they should've done, is expose Nebraska's piss poor pass defense with their own really good passing offense. They threw the ball 32 times, opting to run it the other 40 times, which when compared to all of Ohio State's more competitive games, does lean a bit run heavy as we usually see Ohio State be more pass heavy. A little more exposure on Nebraska's secondary and this game wouldn't have been close.

But it wasn't. Nebraska came out firing and I LOVED the play call to go for the onside kick. Urban Meyer was on the verge of having an aneurysm on the sideline all day, can you just imagine if Nebraska was able to go up 14-0 right away? But things didn't turn out that way but fortunately, Ohio State played like crap. All in all, Nebraska could have won that game yes, but at the same time they were very fortunate to only lose by 5. All in all, Nebraska actually didn't play that bad, Ohio State just played down to Nebraska's level.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Tomorrow however is the Illinois game and this will be the game where we get to see everything come together for Nebraska. Posting 55 against Minnesota, almost beating Ohio State on the road, this will be a slaughter that I'll enjoy watching. Illinois has been on the downswing as of late, and although they just got done trouncing Minnesota, they're still outclassed here, despite the sub-par season Nebraska is having. Illinois truly hasn't been that spectacular this year, winning the games they're supposed to and just getting murdered everywhere else. If there is a shred of hope is that they do have a mediocre offense that could put up a couple numbers against a not-so-sharp Nebraska defense. But overall, this one should be the game that Nebraska uses to make their final statement. The rest of the schedule is winnable based off how the Big Ten has been playing this year.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Illinois D: Advantage Nebraska. It's all finally coming together for the offense, and against a very soft Illinois D, they should have no trouble putting up 50+

Nebraska D vs. Illinois O: Edge Nebraska. Again, Nebraska's defense is yet to be desired, mixed with an Illinois offense that could pull a punch or two, maybe we see some early back and forth, but nothing to be threatened.

Special Teams: Needs improving.

Prediction: After Illinois, Nebraska will be hosting a withering Michigan State team and close the season at a wtf Iowa. Both of those remaining games are very winnable, and it all starts against Illinois. The bigger the statement Nebraska makes on the scoreboard, the better I feel about taking the next two games and salvaging a 5-win season, as my model currently predicts Nebraska is on pace for.

Nebraska 59, Illinois 20

(source: The Champaign Room)



The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

The model went 44-18 (70.97%) across all FBS games last week, bringing the season total to 204-83 (71.08%). And holy shit Nebraska is ranked ahead of it's opponent for the first time all year:

1) Alabama (-)
2) Clemson (-)
3) Utah State (-)
4) Fresno State (+1)
5) Central Florida (-1)
6) Michigan (+6)
7) Appalachian State (-)
8) Oklahoma (-2)
9) UAB (+7)
10) Georgia (-1)
11) Cincinnati (+4)
12) North Texas (-2)
13) West Virginia (-5)
14) Ohio State (-1)
15) Houston (-4)
16) Mississippi State (New)
17) Syracuse (+2)
18) Ohio (New)
19) Washington State (+2)
20) Boise State (-2)
21) Notre Dame (+1)
22) Miami (-2)
23) Boston College (+1)
24) Penn State (-10)
25) Texas Tech (New)
...
97) Nebraska (-7)
...
103) Illinois
...
126) Rutgers (+1)
127) Rice (+1)
128) Louisville (New)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConn (-)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the conference championships:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
B1G: Michigan vs. Iowa (East vs. West. Iowa is the highest Big Ten West team at #27)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
Pac-12: Washington State vs. Utah (North vs. South. Utah is the highest Pac-12 South team at #26)
Best G5 Team: Utah State

Over(rated)Watch:

#8 Washington State - Still Being Watched. I'm just not at all enthused by the status of the Pac-12 this year. Beating California 19-13 isn't exactly the kind of score I like to see my Top 10 teams winning by. They play Colorado this week.

#10 Ohio State - Being Watched. You don't just win by 5 at home against Nebraska when you're coming off a loss to Purdue. The only saving grace for Ohio State's season (barring another loss) is to beat Michigan, which is a task that gets harder to do every week. They play Michigan State in what could be a quiet upset alert game.

#11 Kentucky - Overrated. They only went down two spots after getting throttled by Georgia? How good is the SEC really outside of Alabama anyway? They play Tennessee which should help their numbers a bit.

#13 Syracuse - Being Watched. Syracuse has come in with a quiet season so far, and unfortunately, being quiet at #13 is how you end up on this list. They play Louisville in their stat booster game of the season.

#14 North Carolina State - Being Watched. Similarly to Syracuse, just not enough noise to warrant a solid Top 15 ranking. There are other G5 teams that I would take over these guys. They are playing Wake Forest as of the writing of this blog, and in true overrated fashion, they lost lol.

#16 Mississippi State - Overrated. See last week. They're getting crushed by Alabama this week.

#18 Michigan State - Overrated. I just haven't seen them be as good as they usually are. Whether that's current quarterback play, or something else going on, Michigan State just isn't that good this year. That being said, I'm giving them the chance to upset Ohio State this week.

#19 Texas - Overrated. Lol. They did give West Virginia a run for their money in true Big 12 fashion, but let's see how they handle a rising Texas Tech team.

#22 Iowa State - Uhm What? See last week. They play Baylor this week.

No one won their way off this list from last week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #21 Iowa, NR Texas A&M

Prediction Center:

A perfect 5-0 week AND hitting that upset alert, brings the records to 25-9 and 3-5 respectively.

#10 Ohio State @ #18 Michigan State - Ohio State 34, Michigan State 30

I'm giving Michigan State a fighting chance here, especially if Ohio State plays the way it has the last two games. However, that still doesn't mean Michigan State is any good, and this is still a talent loaded Ohio State. I expect this more to be a bounce back game than a close one, hopefully.

#16 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama - Alabama 59, Mississippi State 17

Why.

#24 Auburn @ #5 Georgia - Georgia 38, Auburn 17

Auburn hasn't been great, Georgia has been good, they're playing in Georgia, you do the math.

#2 Clemson @ #17 Boston College - Clemson 55, Boston College 35

Boston College is another one of those teams that has had a quiet season. With the long shot, but still possible, chance that this game could make or break the ACC Atlantic, Boston College has a dog in this fight. Meanwhile if Clemson wins, then they clinch the division, so they have everything to fight for as well, and ever since the QB switch, Clemson has been on all cylinders.

Upset Alert: Northwestern @ #21 Iowa - I mean, by rank and by Vegas, this is an upset as Iowa is somehow favored by 11. Northwestern has been playing some very good football, including an almost win against Notre Dame last week. Iowa in the meanwhile, kinda lack luster. However, in a game for Big Ten West complications, everything will be placed on the line here.

Buckeyeing Eligibility (Vs. Ohio State)

Recap:

I mean the game against Bethune-Cookman was basically a gimme. It was unfortunate however to watch that there are still some secondary exposure issues with Nebraska's first string that can still get exposed by a good team...

The Big Red Breakdown:

...That Ohio State will gladly expose. If there's any solace I can take going into this game, it is that Ohio State has not looked that sharp all year long. "But they're 7-1!" Yes, and that one loss came embarrassingly against a Purdue team that exposed their issues. "But Nebraska also sucks!" Also true! But this game has the makings of a shootout, as long as we don't see pissed off, Urban Meyer off a bye week. Per usual, Ohio State has play makers on offense that will rip to shreds whatever is left of the Nebraska defense, and will probably not punt for the third straight game in a row against Nebraska. The good news is, Nebraska's offense has come together and can put a nice dent into Ohio State's faded defense. The question this ultimately becomes is "Can Nebraska keep up?"

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Ohio State D: Edge Nebraska. While not completely useless, this isn't the same dominant Ohio State D we're used to seeing in the Big Ten. The offense as a whole should be effective, but maximum damage can be done against an unusually weak Ohio State secondary.

Nebraska D vs. Ohio State O: Advantage Ohio State. If Nebraska had some issues stopping Bethune-Cookman for yards, yikes.

Special Teams: Nebraska's kicker still isn't great, but Ohio State might be short their starter too. Could this come down to field goal kicking?

Prediction: Nebraska is playing for their last life of bowl eligibility here, and it would be absolutely amazing for a former 0-6 team to go into Columbus and kick Ohio State while they're down, but I don't see it happening. Nebraska is off of a half bye whereas Ohio State is off an actual bye, and Ohio State still outclasses Nebraska by a mile in the talent department. I expect a shootout, and if Nebraska can force a punt or two, then maybe, just maybe, they can keep it close enough to where they duke it out at the end.

Ohio State 63, Nebraska 45

The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Due to no post last week, the change in rankings still reflect what would've been posted, so you guys can do the math. Of course Alabama is still #1. I forgot to keep track of the model's record for what would've been last week's post, oops. BUT, this last week, the model went 40-16 (71.43%) across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 160-65 (71.11%). We seem to be getting stuck at this 70% accuracy for short term. We'll have to see how the end of  year rankings look to be.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Clemson (+1)
3) Utah State (+3)
4) Central Florida (-)
5) Fresno State (-)
6) Oklahoma (+1)
7) Appalachian State (-5)
8) West Virginia (+12)
9) Georgia (-1)
10) North Texas (+3)
11) Houston (-2)
12) Michigan (-1)
13) Ohio State (+2)
14) Penn State (-4)
15) Cincinnati (-3)
16) UAB (+1)
17) LSU (+6)
18) Boise State (+6)
19) Syracuse (+3)
20) Miami (-6)
21) Washington State (-2)
22) Notre Dame (New)
23) Utah (New)
24) Boston College (New)
25) Iowa (-4)
...
90) Nebraska (+19)
...
126) New Mexico State (-)
127) Rutgers (New)
128) Rice (-)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConnn (-)

If these rankings were reflective of conference championships, here's what they would be:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
B1G: Michigan vs. Iowa (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington State vs. Utah (North vs. South)
Best G5 Team: Utah State

Over(rated)Watch:

I'm just going to redo the list at this point. Rankings now reflect the CFP Committee

#8 Washington State - Being Watched. I mean, the Pac-12 does need a representative, it's just a shame that their entire conference is ass and beating themselves up this year, hurting their playoff chances. They play California this week

#9 Kentucky - Being Watched Closely. Top 15 team for sure, but let's see how they fare against Georgia before we can say Kentucky is a football school now.

#16 Iowa - Being Watched. Betting that the reason they're here is that they took Penn State to the wire on the road. Well what if I told you Penn State wasn't super special? They also still lost to a mediocre Wisconsin team. They play Purdue this week in hopes of being another team on the embarrassment list.

#17 Texas - Overrated. Lol. They do play West Virginia in what could be a Big XII momentum swinger this week.

#18 Mississippi State - Overrated. There are a lot of good G5 teams that should be ranked ahead of Miss State. They play Louisiana Tech this week.

#20 Texas A&M - Overrated. There are a lot of good G5 teams that should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M. They play Auburn this week.

#24 Iowa State - Uhm What? A 4-3 team? Ok. Again. Probably should be deserving of a G5 team, but whatever.

Prediction Center:

We went 4-1 two weeks ago, and since there were no other predictions made last week, we are sitting at 20-9 on the season. 2-5 for Upset Alerts.

#6 Georgia @ #9 Kentucky - Georgia 24, Kentucky 17

Kentucky has had a spectacular season so far going 7-1, however their best win was against Florida, and they've sort of stumbled down the stretch lately. Georgia has been on their rockers too lately, and with these two defenses, expect a slugfest, but Georgia to come out on top.

#13 West Virginia @ #17 Texas - West Virginia 45, Texas 35

It hurts me to admit, but Texas hasn't been super terrible this year, but they're about to get ousted from the Big XII conference race.

#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan - Michigan 34, Penn State 17

Penn State has unfortunately fallen off the ladder this season, and Michigan has been on the upswing ever since they figured out how to play offense. Look for Michigan to be putting away the Big Ten East here.

#1 Alabama @ #3 LSU - Alabama 38, LSU 20

Alabama's first test of the season, and it still isn't even that big of one. Being in Baton Rouge will matter, but Alabama is still miles above everyone else this year, including this very confusing LSU team.

Upset Alert: #15 Utah @ Arizona State - Since I can't pick Nebraska, and Purdue is favored by Vegas, we'll go with the clusterfuck that is the Pac-12 this week. Utah does seem to be the most complete team in the South, but Arizona State has been on to something this year in playing when it counts. Especially at home.