Friday, December 25, 2015

Twas the Night Before a Bowl Game...

...when all through the stadium, not a creature was stirring. Except Mike Riley who gets his final shot of redemption for the year against UCLA. I was very critical earlier when I said at 5-7 Nebraska doesn't deserve to go to a bowl game and it's a nasty blow to what UCLA has done to go to a bowl game to play a team with such a shoddy record when they were close to going to the Pac-12 title game. All of that aside, there is a game tomorrow and everyone needs to deal with that fact. UCLA has dealt with injuries that could have perhaps gave them the extra boost to get into the title game, and Nebraska has dealt with Tommy Armstrong. Whichever is worse, you decide.


Nebraska can't be totally denied a decent season despite going 5-7, Mike Riley does have a couple saving graces working for him after one year. Nebraska only suffered one loss by double digits, and albeit it was to Purdue...that was the only one (barring this upcoming game which I currently have little hope that it'll hold at one), but Pelini averaged a little more than 2 double digit losses per season in his 7 years (each year had at least 1,  but he did have a couple seasons where there were only 1), and by my numbers, no matter how crappy the play calls have been, or how many interceptions Armstrong threw, Nebraska has truly been the best of the teams that finished under .500 (Which means they're super competitive and staying in games. It also means Nebraska is easily a couple stupid plays away from being in a potential New Years Six bowl game, which my dream of seeing Nebraska play in one while I'm in college is probably not going to come true unless grad school becomes longer than anticipated. Also barring I somehow wind up going back to Nebraska for an MBA)

Anyway, UCLA is quite the opposite. Completely overrated. I've said it from the beginning and I'm still saying it now, they are. They have a freshman QB who has the potential, but none of the execution currently. They have no run game, and their defense is meh on its best day (especially after some early injuries and departures). I only gave them 9-3 at the beginning of the year because of a very simple schedule, but even then they found a way to go 8-4. For whatever reason though, my computer still likes them, and its a bit hard to go against my computer right now (which we'll discuss momentarily)

Nebraska O vs UCLA D: Edge Nebraska. Are we going to see the Armstrong who led the furious comeback against Miami and Michigan State? Or are we going to see the one who blew it against Miami and led Iowa to a victory? Either way our RBs aren't going to do much because even giving the ball to Janovich all the time gets predictable. I vote we just have Janovich run every position, maybe shit will get accomplished that way.

Nebraska D vs UCLA O: Edge UCLA. Rosen (the UCLA QB) resembles the gun-slinging capabilities of Brad Kayaa (who had what, 400 yards against us?), but he has the overrated-ness of Connor Cook (who aside from a drive and a half, was completely shut down by Nebraska's front four). So I'll say it again like I said it against the Spartans: As long as they pressure Rosen, it'll be a good day. But if they let him get comfortable, it'll be a long, painful game to watch. However, hes more of a gunslinger so I'm putting my money on the secondary getting ripped apart.

Here's the deal. It'll most likely be lob-sided, and if it does it'll be in UCLA's favor. However, if Nebraska can stay within a TD of the Bruins, then Nebraska should (better) win the game

Prediction: UCLA 38, Nebraska 24

Meanwhile...In Bowl Season...

12 bowl games have already transpired (Not counting that stupid FCS one that totally threw off my Bowl Mania scores) but yet the combination of me and my computer have somehow gotten to be among the top 1% of all players so, yay. However, if we're going back to the head-to-head I did earlier, the computer and I are both 8-4 (.667) (If you want to get technical, I'm 9-3 but I did say BYU instead of Utah on this blog so I'll count it against me) which as it stands right now, is a bit sub-par from last years 70% for the computer, but hellah better than my 50%; but I'm sure that'll change. We are also 2-2 in term of picking outright favorites (Bowling Green and Temple lost, opposed to Western Kentucky and Boise State winning). One of my other side models that I might have to start looking at is 9-3 (.750) so *shrugs* science man.

Again, we have UCLA being an outright favorite, but I'm starting to think it'll be closer than once thought (throughout the week I've been casually messing with my Confidence scores on Bowl Mania, maybe that's why I'm #winning in my pool against some colleagues. Which if you are reading this I still love you guys.) Other outright favorites still to play are: LSU, Memphis, Mississippi State, Texas A&M (but they have some QB controversy ruh roh), Alabama, and TCU. So there's still plenty of bowl games left to play (28 to be exact)

Meanwhile...In the NFL Fantasy...

My team somehow made it to the finals of my family league for the third straight year (in only three years of participating woop). I say somehow because somehow they went 11-2 with a roster that I lost faith in halfway through the season with everyone, and with Rothlisberger after his second injury. And somehow I won my semi-final matchup that I was way more concerned about than I am against this final matchup (If Beckham would've been ejected when he should have, that would saved me a shit ton of anxiety on Monday night. For reference I ended up winning by 2 with me having Hightower and my opponent having Stafford. I would've won on the seeding tie-breaker as we were tied at the last play of the game, but Hightower got the most ridiculous junk time 20-yard catch that gave me the extra 2 points. But I was hellah nervous when the Saints did that because I thought to myself "Shit, if they start lateralling it, that could be a fumble right? That means I'll lose points and I won't even have the tiebreaker." Fortunately they did not lateral.) Because again that somehow works out. Boom science I guess. Or whatever the hell you want to call analytics.

Any way, the reason why I'm not overly concerned is because my opponent's team is basically Cam Newton. And while yes he cannot be stopped, he better. Or at least throw it to Greg Olsen to minimize some damage. (The rest of her team has really bad matchups) And I on the other hand, have really good matchups to make up for the almost cluster-**** that was last weeks matchups I had. So bottom line, I will not be denied my outright championship this year. (I tied last year and lost on a last minute pick-6 on the Monday night game two years ago (literally it was in the last 1:30 of the game, he could've just fallen down because the 49ers had the win anyway but noooooooooo))

Either way. To all a Merry Christmas, and to all a good night. May the Huskers, and my fantasy team, win prosperously this weekend!

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