Super Cam is in the Super Bowl

If you’re unfamiliar with projections, usually the end result is supposed to be what has the HIGHEST CHANCE of happening based on other projections (kinda like in March Madness, or at least how I set my bracket, which teams have the BEST CHANCE of making it to the Final Four based on who they COULD play?) So if you’re scoring at home, technically my computer got the Super Bowl matchup right, which means that my computer likes the Panthers in the end (and still does). Meanwhile I swung and missed from the get go, but let’s peek:

From the get-go (based on teams advancing instead of actual matchups):

Computer: 5-5

Me: 4-6

Now I know this was never put on record; but obviously things change if different teams play each other; so let’s look at that:

Computer: Wild Card: 0-4

Divisional: 3-1 (It liked the Chiefs over the Patriots)

Championship: 1-1 (it liked the Patriots over the Broncos)

Me: Wild Card: 3-1

Divisional: 2-2

Championship: 1-1 (I too, liked the Patriots over the Broncos)

But here we are. Super Bowl 50. The big one. 15-1 Panthers versus 12-4 Broncos. The top seeds. The Sheriff, versus the Dabber. Two highly esteemed defenses going at it. Who will stop who? Who will prevail? All the surveys say Panthers, my friends say Broncos (I'm close to disowning most of my friends for the weekend). But let's take a look, numerically/historically. Obviously, defense wins championships, hence why both of these teams are here. The Broncos boast the stingiest defense in the league, while the Panthers offer the most dynamic (a combination of stingy and "will-make-you-pay") a very similar style to what the Seahawks have offered in the past few years (including their Super Bowl victory over Manning a few years back). However, it is not ALL about defense. You gotta have some offense to back it up. Let's use a soccer analogy:

Your team is so freaking good on defense, it should be banned from competition because they're allowing 0 goals a game.

But the reason why its not banned is that your team, in return, cannot score a damn goal to save their lives, hence an average of 0 goals per game on offense. So your team is going to tie at 0-0 a lot. As long as your defense can maintain its 0 goals allowed pace, you just need to ask your offense to score, one, damn, goal, and you'll be in business.

And that's where we are seeing the Broncos right now. 4th best defense (18.5 PPGA), but 19th in offense (22.2 PPG). That's a margin of 3.7, otherwise known as a little more than a Field Goal. The Broncos got to 12-4 by barely winning. Only 5 of the Broncos 12 wins have been by a TOUCHDOWN OR MORE (I am disregarding the last second fumble-win against the Chiefs on Week 2 because the Chiefs should have won that game, and I'm barely counting their overtime win over the Patriots since they did technically win via touchdown) That's more than half of the Broncos games BARELY winning. Yet they're in the Super Bowl, somehow.

On the other side of the field we have the Panthers; 6th best defense at 19.2 PPGA, but top offense at 31.2 PPG, for a whopping margin of 12 points, nearly two touchdowns. The Panthers have absolutely murdered everyone they've played. 5 of the Panthers 15 wins have been by LESS THAN A TOUCHDOWN. The Panthers have the same amount of close wins than the Broncos have big wins, that's a Super Bowl caliber team right there. (May I remind you that they completely ripped apart one of the most potent offenses in the Arizona Cardinals? Man I am dying to see what they'll do to a sorry excuse for a Broncos offense)

So sure, both of these teams can hold teams under 20 points, but the Panthers have a significantly better chance of scoring more than 20 points as long as their defense holds serve. As shown in the 2006 Super Bowl (*takes a deep breath*) It's better to have a firey offense than to be solely reliant on your defense, because who cares how bad your defense is if the offense you are facing is just as bad, right? So if in 2006 the Colts had shit defense, but who cared because the Bears offense was just as bad being manned by Ew-Grossman. All the Colts had to do was figure out how they were going to pick apart the Bears defense because they probably knew nothing was going to happen on the other side of the ball. This is what will happen here, as long as the Panthers are fine on their offense v defense matchup, they could probably care less how their defense is playing (although I'm sure they'll completely shred the Broncos)

Breakdown:

Panthers O vs Broncos D: Edge Panthers. Cardinals, Seahawks twice, couldn't stop Super Cam, what makes you think he'll stop now?

Panthers D vs Broncos O: Advantage Panthers. Good luck Manning, shades of Super Bowl XLVIII  anyone?

Special Teams: I think this one actually favors the Broncos, but the Panthers aint bad at this stuff either.

Prediction: Panthers 34, Broncos 17

P.S, If it speaks any wonders on how my computer liked these teams: It liked the Chiefs over the Patriots, who were favored over the Broncos, by transitive property (yay math) Chiefs > Broncos as well (the numbers reflect this anyway so you can throw your transitive property away (boo math)). So to see a sub-par team go against a dynamic team like the Panthers in the Super Bowl is kinda sad, Panthers-Patriots would have been ten times more entertaining. Don't get me wrong though, I will thoroughly be enjoying being the only Panthers supporter in a room full of Broncos people laughing my ass off, just like two years ago!