The Even Year Hype is Real

Since 2010, the San Francisco Giants have been somewhat quietly one of the most consistent teams in baseball. While they have only made the playoffs in 2010, 2012, and 2014 in this span (let alone winning the World Series in each of those three years), they've been a solid above .500 team in the other seasons (except 2013, that was a down year). But the one thing that I give respect to the Giants is that they win and lose respectably unlike some other teams in the league as well as not exactly having that "All-Star" lineup (this year they sent Bumgarner, Cueto and Posey, which is pretty much all the noise the Giants have this year). The Giants don't make any big trades (Cueto was definitely their biggest acquisition, but whether or not you want to call it a "big splash" in the grand scheme of the league is up for interpretation). The Giants are just there. Winning. One of the keys to their success is the fact that their core personnel hasn't changed drastically since 2010. They'll always have solid pitching, and always have a decent offense, which is why they've posted 92, 86, 94, 76, 88, and 84 wins since 2010 respectively. They don't have holes for other teams to poke through.

Which is somewhat looping around to my point, last I checked, and if I can do math correctly (taking Calc 3 this summer has questioned my judgement at times), 2016 is an even year and the Giants entered the All-Star break with the best record, a couple games above my beloved Cubbies (whose hype has sadly died to make room for the even year hype). Hardly anyone was talking about the Giants at the beginning of the season, no thanks to the Cubs, but now is the time of year where people need to start realizing who are the contenders and who aren't. The All-Star break historically has shown sooooommmmeeee trends in how a team will perform in the second half, and some of you readers might recognize this as something I did last year, well because it is. Except this year I've added a bit more analysis woohoo. So let's take a brief few minutes and take a look at this year's possible playoff contenders now that we have half of baseball out of the way:

AL East: 

Leader at the Break: Baltimore Orioles by 2 on the Red Sox and Blue Jays (as of this post the Blue Jays are now 3 back)

Projected Winner: Toronto Blue Jays by 1-3 games over the Red Sox and Orioles
Wild Card Projections?: One for sure, very high chance to get both.

The AL East came into the break as the most contested division with 3 teams being within 2 games of each other, between the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Obviously, one of these three teams will have to win the division, will definitely be interesting to see who as it will probably be contested till the last weekend, the computer likes the Blue Jays to prevail however. However hope is not lost for these AL East teams. The Red Sox and Blue Jays entered the break 2 games up on the Astros for the wild card and that should relatively be a theme. While we will see one of these three win (Blue Jays), we will definitely see one of these East teams in the wild card (computer likes Red Sox) and the computer also likes the odds of the Orioles to hang on to that second wild card spot. But why these three teams? They actually play fairly similar to each other, very dynamic offense coupled with good, but sometimes spotty, pitching. We saw what the Blue Jays did last year and absolutely ripped apart the second half of the season by adding 25 games to their spread (spread meaning how many games they were over/under .500, they entered the break 1 game under .500 and finished 24 games above, hence a 25 game spread since the All-Star Break) thanks to their deadline deals (which lead the AL, and tied the Cubs for all of MLB). And part of the reason why the computer likes the Blue Jays is that they still have those pieces that lead them to their magic playoff run last year, but still similar to the other two teams and also why they are as likely to either win the division as well, or at the least take both wild card spots in the AL.


AL Central:

Leader at the Break: Cleveland Indians by 6.5 over the Tigers, 7 over the Royals and White Sox (as of this post, the Royals and White Sox are 8 games back)

Projected Winner: Cleveland Indians by 7-10 games over the Tigers and Royals
Wild Card Projections?: Unlikely

The Indians have been another one of those very quiet yet extremely dangerous teams with solid pitching and decent offense that ever since they went on their 14-game winning streak, haven't exactly looked back. Barring a collapse or a surge from the other three AL Central contenders (sorry Twins fans), this should be a runaway division for the Indians, with little hope for a wild card spot for the others. Again, barring a surge from these fairly underwhelming, and injured, contenders.


AL West: 

Leader at the Break: Texas Rangers by 5.5 over the Astros (as of this post, the Rangers are 4.5 up)

Projected Winner: Texas Rangers by 5-7 over the Astros
Wild Card Projections?: Unlikely but more likely than the Central

The Rangers have been killing it on offense and have quickly emerged as a World Series favorite out of the AL. The only issue the Rangers have that might slow them down is their pitching. Not all of their pitchers are 100% and their replacements aren't as stellar. If pitching can make a recovery, combined with that powerful offense, the Rangers should be able to come out of the AL. Meanwhile, the Astros have quickly been surging as they return to the team they were last season after their abysmal start this year. If they can continue their surge while the Rangers are still figuring things out, then the AL West could get very interesting and the Astros might see some daylight in the wild card race.


NL East:

Leader at the Break: Washington Nationals by 6 over the Mets and Marlins

Projected Winner: Nationals by 5-7 over the Mets
Wild Card Projections?: Fighting for one

I'll address the wild card issue separately as the NL one is much more interesting than the AL one, but where have we seen this again? Last year the Nationals had a healthy lead over the Mets, was a favorite for the World Series, then just took a complete nose dive out of the playoffs. Which Nationals team will show up this year? The one that showed up last year, and physically choked themselves, or the one that was supposed to and run away with a potential World Series? They have the pieces, while Harper hasn't exactly been Harper, the rest of the team is certainly making up for it on offense, and the Nationals starting rotation leads the league in ERA. The Mets are slowly getting injured, so it would be even worse than last year if we see the Mets winning the NL East again, however they should be in the thick of getting the second wild card spot as they will be competing with other underwhelming yet somehow doing good and possibly injured teams of the NL. Also in the meanwhile, the Marlins are looking more like sharks as they hover around with the Mets...can they convert with what they have though? We'll see how far mediocre pitching and situational offense can get them...


NL Central: 

Leader at the Break: Chicago Cubs by 7 over the Cardinals, 7.5 over the Pirates (as of this post the Cardinals are 8 back and the Pirates are 8.5 back)

Projected Winner: Cubs by 5-7 over the Cardinals and Pirates
Wild Card Projections?: Fighting for one

This was supposed to be the dream season for every Cub fan after turning in one of their best seasons in forever last year when they weren't even supposed to be close to that good. This was supposed to be the year the Cubs will threaten the 116 win record, the year that the Cubs shatter every offensive record, and yet while they still got a good pace for an outstanding margin (they lead the majors with a +145, next highest is the Nationals +109) , they entered the All-Star Break in a very bad slump and saw their lead for best record in the majors diminish just like that. Injuries have played a big role as their blessed child Schwarber went down for the season VERY EARLY, and recent injuries to Fowler and Soler have caused the Cubs to bring in some rookies with considerably quieter bats than the two aforementioned. The Central should still be an easy runaway for the Cubs despite their issues and very shoddy bullpen may I add, as the Cardinals have forgotten how to play defense and we're not quite sure whats wrong with the Pirates, however those two teams could still sneak into the wild card, but probably will quickly fall short this year. As for the Cubs, while they'll definitely be in the playoff and still contend, I think it's going to have to be another "next year" for the Cubs (Think about this, Schwarber and Contreras as catchers (I'm assuming they get rid of Montero for some bullpen work hopefully), Rizzo, Zobrist, Russel and Bryant on the infield, Heyward, Soler, Almora Jr, and hopefully they can retain Fowler again on the outfield. Lester, Hendricks, Lackey and hopefully Arrieta and Hammel still, they just gotta work on that bullpen!!!) But then again this was the dream team that was supposed to be of this year........oh well.


NL West:

Leader at the Break: San Francisco Giants by 6.5 over the Dodgers (as of this post the Giants are 5.5 up)

Projected Winner: Giants by 3-5 over the Dodgers
Wild Card Projections?: Definitely one

Again, the even year hype is real. Try as they might the Dodgers will, it'll still net them an easy wild card spot, but good luck trying to dethrone the Giants.


NL Wild Card:

The wild card is interesting as we see a bunch of teams somewhat crowded around it (From the East we have the Mets and Marlins, and possibly the Phillies, in the Central we have our Cardinals and Pirates, and repping the West is the Dodgers) For sure the Dodgers will get one. Ok done. That leaves the other four maybe five teams to fight for one. The Mets still have the World Series pieces, but are injured. The Marlins have been very quiet, however I'm not sure if they have the power to strike. The Cardinals have started their rebuilding process, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull something out of their ass and keep it together long enough as they always do. And who knows what is going on with the Pirates, a bad start but came into the break very hot. If anything, I'll put my chips toward the Cardinals (as it pains me to type that sentence) only to get blown up by the Dodgers in the wild card game. The Mets have a chance, but they need to get healthy first.


Playoff Projections:
AL Wild Card: Orioles @ Red Sox - Red Sox
ALDS: Red Sox @ Rangers, Blue Jays @ Indians - Red Sox, Blue Jays
ALCS: Red Sox @ Blue Jays - Red Sox (Through the wild card, spooky)

NL Wild Card: Cardinals @ Dodgers - Dodgers
NLDS: Dodgers @ Giants, Nationals @ Cubs - Giants, Cubs
NLCS: Cubs @ Giants - Giants (Make way for the even year)

World Series: Giants over Red Sox in 6.