Nebraska's Pennding Fate (vs. Penn State)

Recap:

Well it's been a hot minute, but we have internet now (woohoo!) But because of lack of said internet, I was unable to watch a majority of last week's game until the fourth quarter, when the damage was already done.

How in the flying fuck do we let Minnesota, one of the more incompetent offensive teams this year, hang 54 on us? From what I was able to see, it looks like their coveted rush defense does not exist anymore. Who knew the 3-4 defense was secret code for Nebraska's Big Ten record, sheesh. This is a 9-win caliber team and schedule, yet here they are pretty much locked in at four wins. Yep, you heard that right. No bowling for Nebraska barring some blaze ass "Mike Riley wins one big game a year he shouldn't" special. And it really is time to hit the reset button. The players just look unmotivated, Riley is not doing any better of a job motivating them on the field, and rumors are SWIRLING that Scott Frost is on his way to leave his potential dynasty at Central Florida behind.

As I was getting internet installed at my apartment, I was casually checking the score (along with being berated by my uncle who thinks a 7-game wins projection at the beginning of the year should never change) and I sort of thought to myself. Am I really missing this game? Roughly a year ago almost to this day was my last home game in the student section against Maryland. During and after the game, I wasn't feeling too sentimental about it being my last game (had not hit me yet, among entertaining a friend at the time). Some freshmen around me were getting more sentimental than I was. They still have at least three more years of watching games in the student section I thought to myself, clearly I should have felt something right? The next 365ish days would definitely change my life in more ways than one (shit even the following month was a doozy, again for other reasons). There would be times throughout those days where I'd look back at some of the Nebraska hype videos and get a little emotional that I would never experience anything like the student section again. But even when I went to the Arkansas State game in the "old people" section this year, it didn't feel the same. Not just from a "Yeah these guys aren't as nuts as the students" but more of a "what am I watching?". And through this year, the passion for at least supporting Nebraska has waned a bit, and I feel like I'm not the only one here. So when I see score updates like the Minnesota game, watching the game quickly became more of a "well, it is on..." than a "oh shit it is on I gotta watch it". Obviously I still do this blog because I love college football (and sports) as a whole, but I think its time that Nebraska needs this reset. The Riley experiment failed hard and I hope AD Moos has noticed. Is Scott Frost the answer? Idk maybe. His quick turn around at Central Florida is very impressive to say the least. But we need to remind ourselves, it is still Central Florida. It is much harder to turn around a program like Nebraska that fast, but would definitely prove that Frost is more than capable should that be the case.

The Big Red Breakdown:

All of that being said, 365ish days later, I'm grateful for all of the support I have received, and to the new friends in Omaha where I'll be hosting a watch party at my new place. Why am I torturing myself and my friends to a watch party against Penn State you ask? Well because my place wasn't ready for the Minnesota game, BUT.

You can't say Nebraska is just going to lay down for this one, right? If there is any shred of dignity left in Nebraska football, they'd be wanting to charge into Happy Valley and bring a damn fight, and hopefully not lose by 27 (the current spread). Again, coming into the season, this was the hardest game on the schedule as I fully believed that Penn State is national championship material. Two losses later and they're fighting just to win the Big Ten East. So yeah, a lot is riding on the line for Penn State here as well as they just need to toss Nebraska aside. But damn what if Nebraska won? Wouldn't that just be the greatest thing ever to help completely derail Penn State's season? They tried to do that to Michigan State in 2015, but then they decided to win at Ohio State that year. This year, Penn State is already rocking on the rails, Nebraska has the chance to really put the nail in the coffin.

Will it happen? No. Tanner Lee is concussed and questionable to play, and even if he does he won't be 100%. They still have the shittiest play calling in the land deciding to use Wilbon on 4th downs instead of blowing it up with Ozigbo or McNitt. 3rd and 1? Yeah we'll chuck it deep instead of going for the first down. We have some pretty fast receivers in Pierson-El and Spielman but nah we'll maybe run two sweeps a quarter. And speaking of Spielman, have you seen him return kickoffs? Lets try something and maybe put him to return punts? He's sort of the future right now and Pierson-El has never been the same in returning punts since his injuries.

I haven't even gotten started on Penn State. 4th best defense in the nation that will absolutely feast on a quarterback such as an injured-Tanner or a rookie-Patrick. Accompanied by a top 20 offense featuring one of the best RBs in the nation and a QB I'd take any day of the week to run my offense means that if Minnesota can put up 54, I won't hold my breath for 70. The losses to Ohio State and Michigan State do expose some vulnerability, but those were close losses on the road after all. And again, Penn State does need to play for the Big Ten East, after all.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Penn State D: Advantage Penn. GG Tanner/Patrick.

Nebraska D vs. Penn State O: Advantage Penn. RIP. 3-4 is going to be a 3-5 when Penn State is done.

Special Teams: Not so special.

Prediction: There exists an alternate universe where Nebraska shuts down Saquon and McSorley, either Tanner Lee is better when he's concussed, or Patrick O'Brien is actually really fucking good and should have been played earlier. And somehow in this alternate universe, I have a girlfriend.

Penn State 62, Nebraska 17 (Honestly just covering my expectations, I would hope it is much closer than this otherwise we're going to have to turn this into a drinking game)

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Uhh, due to last week's break, these will reflect changes from last week that I was able to quickly run, so you can do the math where other teams were and what wins/losses affected their rankings:

1) Central Florida (-)
2) Alabama (-)
3) Wisconsin (Up 1)
4) Washington (Up 1)
5) Penn State (Up 1)
6) Ohio State (Up 4)
7) Auburn (Up 2)
8) Georgia (Down 5)
9) Oklahoma (Up 2)
10) South Florida (Up 2)
11) TCU (Down 4)
12) Ohio (Up 2)
13) Arizona (Up 4)
14) Clemson (Up 1)
15) Florida Atlantic (Up 4)
16) Oklahoma State (-)
17) Notre Dame (Down 9)
18) Miami (Up 4)
19) Virginia Tech (Down 6)
20) Arkansas State (Down 2)
21) Stanford (Up 2)
22) Boise State (Down 1)
23) Western Michigan (New)
24) Fresno State (Up 1)
25) Mississippi State (Down 5)
...
108) Nebraska (I didn't keep track what we were before Minnesota, but we were projected for 5 wins. Now we are locked at 4. Aka my model does not think we will win another game)
...
126) East Carolina
127) Kansas
128) Ball State
129) UTEP
130) San Jose State
(Again didn't keep track of the bottom 5. I just know that Ball State is new and Rice escaped)

Now the fun part. Now that we have some locked in championship games, our projections get interesting:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (clinched) (West vs. East)
B1G: Wisconsin (clinched) vs. Penn State (West vs. East)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona USC (clinched) (North vs. South)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. TCU (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson (clinched) vs. Miami (clinched) (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

The Pac-12 South is currently the only current miss since my model cannot adjust for clinches.  While it has Arizona as the 13th best team and USC at 32nd, it cannot account for the fact that USC has actually clinched the Pac-12 South. Now this can adjust in one of two ways in the next two weeks: 1) It can adjust in favor of USC actually being a good team and eventually putting them ahead of Arizona. Or 2) Arizona is truly the better team and USC does not deserve its Pac-12 bid. Time will tell I guess.

This week's clinching scenarios:

Big XII: Oklahoma can clinch a spot in the Big XII championship with a win over Kansas (lol). They would be able to clinch the regular season Big XII title with a win AND a West Virginia loss to Texas (Since Oklahoma and West Virginia have not played yet, West Virginia still has a chance to win on the head-to-head)

B1G: Ohio State can clinch the East with a win over Illinois (lol) AND a Michigan loss to Wisconsin (Michigan can still claim the head-to-head over Ohio State)

Pac-12: No one can clinch the North this week since Washington State is on bye. But Washington vs. Washington State will be the decider, in some way.

SEC: No one can clinch the West this week because the SEC likes to schedule cupcakes in the most important time of the football year. But it'll be the winner of Alabama vs. Auburn.

OVER(RATED)WATCH:

Again using the AP poll because f them. And also going back to my list two weeks ago since we didn't have one last week!

#5. Wisconsin - Being Watched. I'm very slowly being content with Wisconsin as a team. But I still think they're prime for an ass kicking somewhere down the line. They play Michigan this week in what will most likely be their toughest test until the championship game.

#6. Auburn - Being Watched. Highest rated 2 loss team. Uhh sure you can have points for beating Georgia, but really what does that say about Georgia and Notre Dame, who also got mauled by Miami? Reason #500 why I hate the SEC is because Auburn is playing Louisiana Monroe as their 11th game of the season this week.

#11. USC - Being Watched Even More. I don't care if yall have clinched the South, yall still aint good. Yall. They play UCLA this week for their finale before the Pac-12 championship game.

#14. Washington State - Being Watched. While they're in control of the Pac-12 North, I'm still not convinced of their legitness. They are on bye this week as they prepare for Washington.

#16. Mississippi State - Being Watched Even More. Uhh really, a 3 loss team? Ok SEC biased AP polls. They play Arkansas this week, so mind as well be a mindless "Traditional 11th game of the SEC schedule"

Proven their worth: #3 Miami
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: NR Iowa State

Prediction Center:

Sadly we took our first losing week in what was the biggest week of the season two weeks ago. We turned in a 3-5 record *cries*, bringing our season record to 22-12-2 (right around .638). Only one game to attempt to bring it back:

Michigan @ Wisconsin - Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20

As much as I've been bashing Wisconsin all year, I can't deny that their defense is scary good. What happens when you have a scary good defense going against an inept offense such as Michigan? Not good results. As long as Wisconsin sticks to running the ball (as I hope they are slowly realizing how much garbage Hornibrook is), they should be good to go for the win, as Michigan too has a pretty good defense.