Since this is the first game of the year, we don't really have much to recap, so let us look at what we are dealing with this year:
The Squad:
Offense:
A dual-threat freshman quarterback from California with a last name Martinez? Sign me up. Obviously he'll have some first game jitters, but that is to be expected. What is equally unfortunate is that the rest of the offense is fairly young as well when it comes to the skill positions. We return Stanley Morgan Jr thank god, but Spielman, Lindsey and Reimers look to make a huge impact as well as they transition to full-time receivers. We have nearly all brand new tight ends, but they're physically huge and imposing so look for their presence to be felt in some way. And then there are the running backs. If you peep at the depth chart you'll notice a few things: 1) Wilbon isn't even listed as outside of the 4-string which is interesting. 2) Ozigbo is once again not the sure-fire starter. Which leads to 3) Greg Bell. He looked phenomenal in the spring game, so if he's anything like Tre Bryant was (RIP his knees), I can see why he got the start over Ozigbo. But that still leaves an entire core of running backs with no meaningful game time experience outside of Ozigbo, which can be concerning. So in terms of starters, Morgan, Spielman, Ozigbo, and you can argue Reimers, are the only players that have previous meaningful game time experience. Yikes. Down the road this'll be an amazing line up, but it's pretty tough to be excited about youth when we're looking at the microscope that is this season.
What's even worse is that Nebraska is already short one quarterback as Gebbia Gtfo'ed when he wasn't named the starter. Which is unfortunate as he looked promising as well and a very serviceable backup. But I understand, kid just wants to play. BUT, that means we must protect Martinez's toes at all costs. Even the smallest injury and we're seeing Ryker Fyfe status of backups. Which is a shame, I was looking forward for Nebraska to turn into Ohio State where they could plug in anyone at QB and win. Ah well.
Defense and Special Teams:
The defense will be Nebraska's golden side of the ball as a good majority of the starters are coming back. The secondary will be questionable as always, but I'm having full confidence in the front 7 to get some jobs done. What I'm also hoping, is that the new coaching staff will teach these guys how to tackle like you want to tackle someone, not just give them a hug. I need to see some fire in my defenses. I wanna see someone get knocked out. Pretty sure the last big hit I've seen out of a Nebraska defense was when Randy Gregory was around. That man was out for blood. We need that kind of intensity back into the defense. Bring us back to 1997 Scott.
The special teams look interesting as we will be embracing a brand new kicker. Hopefully Lightbourn has improved as well, and for the first time in four years, we won't have DeMornay returning. Which I'm not sure how I feel about that statement. Yeah he was good, but injuries plagued him and made him not good, which gives Nebraska a chance to finally try some other guys with equal potential out there. And according to their depth chart, I think they got the right guys on there as they have Spielman and Lindsey listed as the main returners. If you look back on my posts, I've been calling for Spielman to be returning since about the fourth game of last season over DeMornay. I think he's got something special. Don't let me down.
So let's look at this schedule shall we? Nebraska does have one of the toughest schedules in the conference, some may argue in the nation. Not exactly a present Scott Frost was looking forward to, a young team with a brutal schedule. But I have faith. Somehow. At the very worst this team should still be bowl eligible. If everything strikes correctly, we could see a Big Ten championship game.
Game 1 vs. Akron: See below for the extended version, but spoilers, W.
Game 2 vs. Colorado: They had something going on the last couple seasons, but the man that made it happen has now graduated. We'll see what happens after one game, but I'm not scared of them. W.
Game 3 vs. Troy: Ok now you got me a little shook. Troy is no pushover. Sun Belt champs last year, and usually once a year they get their big win on the road. Last year it was LSU. They have a new QB and a new running core, but their top receivers are sticking around. We'll look later, but Troy always comes to play. And you better believe I'll be making a High School Musical reference for this post. But for now, W, but I'll call it a toss up.
Game 4 @ Michigan: Now we get to have some fun. When the schedule first got analyzed, I definitely wrote this off as a loss, but now, Nebraska might stand a chance. Yes, Michigan is returning their shut down defense from last year, but their offense is entirely made over, which could still be a bad thing. Like yeah, Michigan's offense was horrendous last year, but idk maybe this new guy doesn't like the scheme? Plus I hear people are sick of Harbaugh so drrraaaaammmmaaaaaa. L, but let's check back later.
Game 5 vs. Purdue: Purdue can't be totally written off as they should be improving this year, but so is Nebraska. W.
Game 6 @ Wisconsin: Sooo....that Jonathan Taylor guy is still around...fortunately so too is Hornibrook. Back to unfortunately, so is that defense. L, but let's check back later.
Game 7 @ Northwestern: Northwestern is always chippy, but somehow Nebraska always wins in Lincoln North. W.
Game 8 vs. Minnesota: I'm still not entirely convinced Minnesota is on its way up in terms of "teams I'm scared of" plus its a home game. W.
Game 9 @ Ohio State: Are you sure you don't want to fire Urban Meyer? Let's check back in on the drama, but this is probably the only sure fire L.
Game 10 vs. Illinois: Lol. W.
Game 11 vs. Michigan State: Michigan State has made its way to my overrated list already, but they usually don't disappoint. L, but let's check back later.
Game 12 @ Iowa: Ugh. Why does Iowa always play Nebraska super hard? Because its a road game and Nebraska is young, this'll be an L, but of course, we'll check back later.
So I see 5 probably L's, which puts Nebraska at 7-5. I personally think 8-4 is manageable if we can flip one of those probable Ls and I wouldn't hold my breath for a return of the 9 win seasons. But this is a tough road schedule so it is not exactly great in Nebraska's favor, especially with a young team. Which is why most fans should be expecting to return to a bowl game, but let's not get too carried away with our expectations.
The Big Red Breakdown:
Which turns us to the first game of the season against Akron. Some may argue that the only good that has come out of that city is LeBron James. The football team does not fall under the "good" category. They went a very uninspiring 7-7 last year (which yes I know is better than what Nebraska did. Hush.) However they managed to win their side of the MAC with a 6-2 conference record after finishing non-conference play 1-3. They proceeded to get blown the fuck out by Toledo in the MAC Championship, and then by the Lane Train of FAU in their respective bowl game. Which is hilarious, because Akron is actually alright on defense. Its just that their offense can't keep up.
So looking into this game, can't really say they should be threatening. The only interesting thing to see will be how this "decent" defense stacks up against this new, young, Nebraska offense. I think they'll be ok though.
Nebraska O vs. Akron D: Edge Nebraska. Perfect way to see what we're working with by going up against a marginal defense as the first game. I think they'll start slow, but by the second half they'll be rolling. They might be looking for their next backup quarterback by the time that rolls around hopefully. Frost has said he's going to do a running back by committee to keep things fresh, and I for one, am looking forward to a bunch of quarterback draws, receiver sweeps, and all the fun back field fuckery that we've seen from Oregon and Central Florida in years prior.
Nebraska D vs. Akron O: Advantage Nebraska. The defense is the one thing fans can count on this year to be remotely consistent (hopefully). Most of Akron's offense is returning, but they are giving the reigns to a new sort of dual threat QB, which historically Nebraska has been terrible at defending. But I don't think Akron of all teams is flashy enough to pose a threat.
Prediction: Well, the last time I said that a MAC team with an ok defense was coming into Lincoln on a night game would flop, it didn't end well. Let's try again, because if THIS Nebraska team loses to Akron, we're in for another rough season.
Nebraska 45, Akron 17
The Rest of the Week in College Football:
I'm not going to roll into predictions for the first week just because we still don't know who is real and who is fake. I still hate the pre-season AP Poll, and for whatever reason, Tennessee is favored by 9 against West Virginia. I'm also putting Oklahoma on upset alert against the Lane Train. Let's use those as my "predictions" of the week.
Instead I'm going to use this week as a base to recap my model from last year and the results:
Here is the FINAL rankings (aka after the national championship game was played):
1) Alabama
2) Central Florida
3) Penn State
4) Washington
5) Georgia
6) Ohio State
7) Oklahoma
8) Clemson
9) Wisconsin
10) Auburn
11) Florida Atlantic
12) TCU
13) Oklahoma State
14) Memphis
15) South Florida
16) Toledo
17) Virginia Tech
18) Ohio
19) San Diego State
20) Arkansas State
21) Oregon
22) Appalachian State
23) Troy
24) Arizona
25) Notre Dame
One thing you'll quickly notice is the abundance of G5 teams on this ranking. Again, the model I'm using projects a team's ability to win given their stats, so if a G5 team is raking in a weak conference, then they'll be a bit more favored than your average Power 5 team, but that just means they're taking care of business. Can we subjectively say that last year Florida Atlantic was better than TCU? I'm going with no, but I would imagine it would've been a pretty decent game to watch. And that could also be partially answered tomorrow as FAU heads to Oklahoma, which yes, they are not the same teams as last year (In fact Oklahoma is worse lol). We still had Penn State as the 3rd best team in the nation, but they ended without even going to the Big Ten championship let alone the playoffs. This can probably be backed up that maybe they had the third best talent in the nation, but they could just never consistently bring it together, in my opinion.
Anyway, another thing I did was count to see how often teams were ranked by this model, for a maximum of 12 weeks (tracking began in Week 3 for a large enough sample size), and here are those results, from most often on down:
1) Alabama - 12
2) Central Florida - 12
3) Penn State - 12
4) Washington - 12
5) Oklahoma - 12
6) Clemson - 12
7) Wisconsin - 12
8) TCU - 12
9) Oklahoma State - 12
10) Virginia Tech - 12
11) Arizona - 12
12) Georgia - 11
13) Auburn - 11
14) South Florida - 11
15) Ohio State - 10
16) Notre Dame - 9
17) Miami - 9
18) UTSA - 8
19) Florida Atlantic - 7
20) Ohio - 7
21) Arkansas State - 7
22) Stanford - 7
23) Oregon - 6
24) Toledo - 4
25) Kansas State - 4
7 others tied with 4 (Fresno St, Miss St, Wake, Utah, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech)
Other notes: Highest end of the year ranking with no Top 25 appearances = Louisville, finished 26th
Lowest end of the year ranking with at least one Top 25 appearance = Maryland, finished 114th (out of 130 teams)
Alabama and Central Florida were the only teams to have ever been #1. Central Flordia was always either #1 or #2. Alabama was as low as #20.
A total of 46 teams made at least one Top 25 appearance since tracking began in Week 3.
This year I'll do better tracking of games predicted throughout the year through this model, AND, I'll bring back my short term model from a few years back to see which is better at what.
Hot Take Central:
New section this year! Especially since it is the first week and I don't have much else to discuss. Each week I'll bring a set of hot takes, whether they're opinionated or formulated. This may run some parallels to Over(rated)Watch, which yes, will make a return once we see what teams are capable of. To start:
We will have one major top-10 non-conference upset (looking at you FAU)
An exclusively defensive player will be a Heisman finalist (none of this part time returner crap)
A Power 5 team not named Kansas will go 0-12
Nebraska will execute AND SCORE on a fake punt/FG
A Power 5 team that has not won their conference in the last 10 years, will win this year. So if your name is not: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Oregon, Stanford, USC, or Washington, I LIKE YOUR ODDS! (Kansas State did win a share of the Big 12 title in that one awkward year where everyone left but they didn't have the format down, but I'm not recognizing that, because its K-State) (Also believe it or not, Georgia would have been left off this list if they didn't win last year, their last SEC Title was in 2005)
May the numbers ever be in your favor this year!
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