Lost & Found (Vs. Purdue)

Recap:

As much as I don't want to recap this game, I think it is important that we do. That was easily the most complete game Michigan has ever played in their lives, and easily the most incomplete game Nebraska has ever played. Scott Frost did say it would get worse before it got better, so if this is rock bottom, I'm definitely looking forward to the Ohio State game. I'm also really glad that he kept most of the starters in there for some time. At this point in the program, I think it is important to show these young players what it is like to get their asses brutally handed to. They need some kind of fire the way this season is going. I'm also sure this was a good indicator of who's here for the long haul or not. We all knew the offense wasn't going to do much, but what the actual fuck happened on defense? I can only recall one three-and-out, and that was immediately followed by the muffed punt. Missed tackles left and right, and oh yeah, the really shitty O-Line of Michigan looked like the Great Wall. Clearly it is time to re-asses this team, they look lost. I'm starting to think this team would've lost to Akron.

The Big Red Breakdown:

And what is lost in Nebraska, may or may not have been found in Purdue. A team that in the past couple seasons has been trying to put it back together, but is always missing that one vital piece. Most of the time, this year included, its been a lack of defense for Purdue. But we can't ignore that this Purdue team is coming in at 1-3, with all 3 of those losses being really close, and that one win coming against a, so far, decent Boston College team, at home. But at the same time, one of those losses was to Eastern Michigan, yikes. Purdue's signature is their offense and what better time to face a high-octane offense than the game after a defense went missing, am I right? If Michigan was the worst to come, then I think Nebraska can bring it together at home against Purdue.

Of course every time I've said they're going to bounce back, they don't. But whatever. Positivity is one of my Gallup Strengths.

Nebraska O vs. Purdue D: Advantage Nebraska. A healthy Martinez should bring this offense back to life a week after being decimated by Michigan's defense, especially against a weak Purdue front.

Nebraska D vs. Purdue O: Advantage Purdue. If anyone can find the defense that played against Colorado, please send them to Memorial Stadium by Saturday kthx.

Special Teams: Christ. The Lindsey Experience needed to have stopped halfway against Colorado yet here we are. Please let Spielman return.

Prediction: We got ourselves a shootout here folks! I really want to give a shred of dignity to Nebraska's defense to be able to hold their ground better than Purdue's, especially at home, but boy last week makes that hard to do. And let's not forget that as decently seeming the offense looks, they still make a lot of mistakes/turnovers. I think this is the game to turn it around, I really do. Which is why I hate that the spread is 3.5 in favor of Purdue, I can't hate that. Damn you Vegas!

Purdue 41, Nebraska 38

(source: Detroit Free Press)

This is one of those photos that doesn't necessarily match the tone of this post, but I can't help to not laugh at whatever Lightbourn is doing in the background.

The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

This year is going to be a delightful year of upsets won't it? Also totally forgot to keep track of the model's record last week oops. This week for sure.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Ohio State (+3)
3) Penn State (+5)
4) North Texas (+5)
5) Central Florida (-2)
6) Appalachian State (New)
7) Georgia (-3)
8) Syracuse (+5)
9) West Virginia (+6)
10) Fresno State (+7)
11) Michigan (New)
12) Utah State (-6)
13) Mississippi State (-11)
14) Memphis (+2)
15) Miami (+4)
16) Florida (+8)
17) Texas Tech (+5)
18) Clemson (+7)
19) Oklahoma (-1)
20) Colorado (New)
21) Southern Mississippi (+2)
22) Boise State (New)
23) Oregon (-13)
24) Cincinnati (-3)
25) Auburn (New)
...
77) Purdue
...
122) Nebraska (-23)
...
126) UTEP (-)
127) Georgia State (New)
128) Rutgers (New)
129) New Mexico State (+1)
130) UConn (-2)

Yep. Nebraska is four spots away from the Bottom 5. Current win projection is at 2 now.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Overrated. Everything about them from last week still stands, adding on to the fact they didn't really blow the socks off of Louisiana Tech. They play Ole Miss this week and they better put up Alabama like numbers on them too.

#7 Stanford - Overrated. Struggled against a not super impressive Oregon on the road. Got EXTREMELY LUCKY to pull off the win, despite me saying they would last week. They battle Notre Dame in this week's Battle of the Overrateds.

#8 Notre Dame - Back to Being Watched. After a week of being overrated, they actually made some changes for the better in a convincing win at Wake Forest. Hooray! As mentioned above, they play Stanford this week. Will one win? Or will both come out of the game looking like complete dog shit?

#10 Auburn - Back to Being Watched. Again, very mixed feelings about this team. They play Southern Miss in a game they should not be overlooking.

#11 Washington - Still Being Watched. Another team I have mixed feelings about. They beat Arizona State by a touchdown, so I'm not sure if that counts as getting a good win, or struggling. They get BYU this week in what should be an interesting matchup.

#17 Kentucky - Being Watched. Slow down there buddy. Kentucky has looked impressive between last year and their 4-0 start this year, but as always, let's keep an eye on an SEC team, shall we? They play South Carolina in what should be a good test for them.

No teams have been removed from this list.

Hot Take Central: (Successful conversions: 1)

-Defenses definitely don't exist anymore, RIP the Heisman dream. I'll put this hot take away and see if it comes to fruition later

-There are two Power 5 teams left that are winless, Nebraska because they suck, and UCLA because they were on a bye week last week.

-At this point I don't trust Nebraska's special teams to execute a fake punt/FG. But again, that is exactly what Frost wants you to think.

-Let's get another conference game in before we start wheeling and dealing on potential champions.

-I'm combining my two playoff hot takes as they're starting to blend together. I would also like to point out that we may very well see 3 SEC teams in the playoff this year because Georgia does not play LSU or Alabama. God help us all.

-Wisconsin not winning the Big Ten West looked good until they beat Iowa. But its only one game, anything can still happen.

Prediction Center:

A successful 3-0 week bounces us back to 5-5. However we are 1-2 on Upset Alerts. Got a slew of games this week:

#12 West Virginia @ #25 Texas Tech - West Virginia 45, Texas Tech 38:

Classic Big 12 shootout. Texas Tech is coming together, but they're still just a bit outside of that next tier in the conference.

#4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State - Ohio State 31, Penn State 27:

Game of the week right here and easily will dictate the Big Ten East. Penn State has a shot, but Urban is angry for being lambasted on national television for being a liar.

#7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame - Notre Dame 24, Stanford 16:

Perfect timing for Notre Dame to find an offense against a really good defense. Too bad the same can't be said about Stanford. I will give the Stanford QB credit for being really clutch. So if the score is within a touchdown, maybe Stanford has the edge.

#20 BYU @ #11 Washington - Washington 31, BYU 27:

Another matchup that I didn't know I wanted until I looked it up and found out it was a thing. BYU always plays interesting, and with the Wisconsin upset in their mind, they can look to do it again against a meh Washington team. Good thing Washington actually has a decent QB.

#19 Oregon @ #24 California - Oregon 41, California 35:

Classic Pac-12 shootout. Oregon did look better than expected against Stanford, let's see what California can bring to the table this week.

Upset Alert: Syracuse @ #3 Clemson - Honestly there weren't really a lot of good candidates this week, primarily because 10 of the Top 25 are playing each other this week, but Syracuse is up to something. And can Clemson shake the loss of Kelly Bryant transferring and the drama behind that? Dun dun duunnnn.

B1G Worries Ahead

Recap:

Well. We put faith in Bunch. And we quickly lost it. Just sort of shows everyone why Martinez was the #1 guy coming out of camp, as if you really get technical, Bunch was looking at #4, #5 if you count Vedral has to sit out this season. Long story short, big oof. Poor decisions, costly turnovers yet again, and that's just not how you win football games. But even still, Nebraska came up one possession short in the end. The fight is there, the talent might be there in some aspects, its just that Nebraska needs to bring it all together. And looking ahead, sort of glad Nebraska has a really brutal schedule where even the best of teams would have a tough time with. At least this way us fans know we're getting murdered. The defense also kind of disappeared. Now I'm not expecting 7 sacks a game every day, but I was half expecting to see a similar intensity. It was there for the first half but it definitely looked like they got gassed coming into the second half. The bright side is, Scott Frost is right. If Nebraska really wants to not play their make up game on December 1st because they'll be in the championship, hope is not lost. Nebraska is still undefeated in conference play.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Speaking of brutal conference play, this week is the first road game, and first conference game of the season at Michigan. My optimism for this game all depends on if Martinez plays or not. If he does, Nebraska might stand a fighting chance. If Bunch is in, gg, he might actually die to that defense. But that's the thing that gives me a glimmer of hope. All Michigan is is a really great defense. Their offense is straight ass, even with their new shiny transfer quarterback. They only have one receiving threat, and the quarterback is going to need some time to hit that, which currently he has very little of. If Martinez plays, then the offense returns to life and might be able to create a spark against a stone wall defense. The other primary concern is the special teams play. Nebraska looked god awful against Troy as the Curse of Tackling still lingers in the locker room.

If Nebraska goes into Ann Arbor with some fight and hangs around, Martinez or not, this would look very promising, especially if the offense can get things going. At the same time, if the defense lays down another egg, then some new questions will rise about this team.

Nebraska O vs. Michigan D: Advantage Michigan. If Martinez plays this goes down to an Edge for Michigan as they are still completely relentless. But I do not see much happening even with him in, let alone giving Bunch the keys to the offense.

Nebraska D vs. Michigan O: Edge Nebraska. If we see the Colorado defense, then Nebraska will be in business. The Troy defense will still be serviceable, but less missed tackles please.

Special Teams: Advantage Michigan. This could be problematic between terrible punt coverage, lack of explosive returns, freshman kicker, and the fact that Michigan does all of these significantly better than Nebraska.

Prediction: Expect a low scoring game. This will be a defensively dominated game, so it could get boring to watch. At the same time, I don't expect this game to get out of hand score wise because neither offense will be able to do anything. It'll be like Troy, where we're down only by a couple touchdowns even though it felt like we were down 40. Nebraska can hang around in this game, but a win would definitely be amazing.

Michigan 20, Nebraska 10

(source: Sports Illustrated)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

The first set of the regression rankings for the year are sort of ready as a lot of teams have only played two games, but we're still rolling it out. A lot of G5 teams make their way here early, but again, expect some shake ups as the year progresses, but I don't hate how this looks considering this is supposed to reflect what the teams have done up to this point *cough AP voters cough*.

And surprise surprise, look who is still on top:

1) Alabama
2) Mississippi State
3) Central Florida
4) Georgia
5) Ohio State
6) Utah State
7) Oklahoma State
8) Penn State
9) North Texas
10) Oregon
11) Virginia Tech
12) Boston College
13) Syracuse
14) Washington State
15) West Virginia
16) Memphis
17) Fresno State
18) Oklahoma
19) Miami
20) Texas A&M
21) Cincinnati
22) Texas Tech
23) Southern Miss
24) Florida
25) Clemson
...
31) Michigan
...
99) Nebraska
...
126) UTEP
127) SMU
128) UConn
129) UTSA
130) New Mexico State

To the curious, this model has Nebraska sitting at 5 wins currently.

Over(rated)Watch:

#6 LSU - Overrated. I hate the SEC much like the rest of the nation, because they always started overrated in the preseason polls, and then one "big" win suddenly shoots them up to where ever they feel like it, and in this case LSU wound up at 6. They play Louisiana Tech so please slaughter them if you would like legitimacy.

#7 Stanford - Overrated. Much like Wisconsin,  ya can't do shit if you can't run the ball. You only beat an FCS school by 20 because you didn't have  your star QB. Yeesh. They get to travel to Oregon where something will happen for better or worse for my sanity.

#8 Notre Dame - Exposed. I'm sorry Notre Dame, we're revoking your legit card. Instead, we're handing you the "Last Year's Miami" card. You can't barely beat Michigan, Ball State, and Vanderbilt you just can't. If you want to be Top 10, you gotta murder these bad teams. They play Wake Forest this week, a game which they should be able to handle easily. Maybe.

#9 Auburn - Overrated. Until we get a resolution in the SEC, you'll be overrated so long as you're in the Top 10. The play Arkansas, who has already shown to be the worst team in the league, so expect a slaughterhouse.

#11 Washington - Still Being Watched. ??? What even is this team? They play Arizona State in what should be a thrilling Pac-12 showdown for legitimacy.

No teams proved their worth to get off this list
Properly taken care of and being low key watched: #18 Wisconsin. Finally.

Hot Take Central:
-WE GOT AN UPSET. Unranked BYU properly exposed #6 Wisconsin on the road for our hot take conversion of "There will be a top-10 non conference upset"

-I'm starting to think defenses don't exist anymore

-We are now down to 5 Power 5 teams without a win (North Carolina, Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa State, UCLA), and Kansas somehow has two now

-Still no fakes from Nebraska

-Conference play is just getting started, so lets get to the fun stuff!

-Yup. Big Ten is dead. Ohio State struggled to TCU, and Wisconsin finally lost. Although the ACC still doesn't look super bright either. This'll be a fun year with conference play kicking up

-Big 12 now looks firmly in for the playoffs, however the problem now leans into the wall of we probably will wind up with 2 SEC teams, but now the Big Ten and ACC are fighting for that fourth spot. Step it up Pac-12.

New Takes:
-Wisconsin will not win the Big Ten West

Prediction Center:

Yikes. For the first time in blog history we went win-less, 0-4 last week, and another blog first, we are officially under .500 with a 2-5 record AND we missed the Upset Alert last week :( Got a couple games to bounce back with this week.

#22 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama - Alabama 49, A&M 20:

This won't even be close. A&M looked sharp against Clemson but that's basically it. Alabama has just been Bama'ing their way per usual.

#7 Stanford @ #20 Oregon - Stanford 27, Oregon 21:

I actually haven't seen anything lively out of Oregon this year. Just kinda got by with their non-conference schedule. It'll be close because Stanford is bad too, but defense usually prevails in these types of games. The computer likes Oregon but I don't want to test it yet

Upset Alert: #8 Notre Dame @ Wake Forest: Wake Forest has been a thorn in the side of the ACC lately, so I think they're on to something here with the makings of a conference run in the near future. A struggling Notre Dame cannot look foolish here if they want to be considered a Top 10 team.

State College Musical (vs. Troy)

Recap:

UGH. Two fumbles on back-to-back drives, go down 14-0...and it's just all downhill--wait. They...they didn't go on to lose 42-3? Nebraska....hold up, Nebraska actually ended the first half on a 21-3 run to lead 21-17 at halftime? Well I'll be damned. The boys got some fight in them finally! Granted, giving up 14 free points like that is not how you win football games. Arguments can be made about the potential 28-point swing right then and there (14 denied for Nebraska, 14 gained by Colorado). But there were a looooooot of mistakes that were made that you can point to, that could also have been the reason Nebraska lost, that quite frankly, were mistakes that you make when you're playing the first game of the season:

-Starting with the drive prior to "the" Colorado drive, there was some piss poor clock management (and yes, you CAN argue that this ended up saving Nebraska a bit). However, by not snapping the ball at the 15-20 second mark, you are effectively A) Taking more time off the clock that Colorado still needed for their comeback drive (if there was to be one), and B) Thusly, you could let them use their time outs on defense instead of letting them hang on to one or two on offense. All that said, there was the possibility of maybe 30-45 seconds to go off the clock if we assume Colorado used their timeouts. Now you get a bit more of a rushed Colorado team on offense to try to win the game on their drive and maybe a mistake or two happens on their end because of it.

-Of course, Colorado's comeback drive doesn't happen if JD makes that 3rd down catch

-But it does, and we get to Colorado's drive and on 3rd and a god damn mile, the ball is way overthrown the receiver WHY DO YOU STILL HIT HIM. You get them on 4th and Forever but noooooooo fresh set of downs (which Colorado used to win on the first play anyway)

Anyway. Simple mental mistakes that can be brushed off as the season progresses. But honestly, I still liked what I was seeing. Aside from an injured Martinez. Those second and third quarters were exactly what we were expecting to see at 100% efficiency. A blazing offense and a shut down defense. Let's just hope we get to see more of that this year.

The Big Red Breakdown:

What time is it? No it's not summer time, that is sadly coming to an end. It is however, time to get our heads in the game as Troy Bolton comes into Lincoln. Wait, nope, nevermind, it is only just Troy. But Nebraska still needs to hit this out of the park after the disappointing result that was last week. I liked to come into this season with low to modest expectations, so I wouldn't have been super sad if Colorado actually outplayed them, but man to lose like that stinks. And here comes perennial home wrecker Troy that always brings a fun fight on the road. They did get absolutely shellacked at Boise State for their season opener, and then rightfully destroyed their FCS opponent last week. So it's hard to say what the vibe is on this team exactly. My initial scouting report tells me that they're slightly better on defense, and don't sleep on them on offense. So I'm not super concerned. It is, however, a great matchup for the Brady Bunch to get his reps in as he will most likely be the go-to guy as Martinez still recovers from his knee injury.

I personally would like this situation as I would much rather have a healthy Martinez going against that Michigan defense than I would Bunch. UNLESS, Bunch absolutely shows that he's a monster. He didn't look shabby in the "oh shit I have to do this" situation that he was put in, so let's see what he can really do with a full week of practice. But boy, Gebbia really just had to soar and fly away didn't he?

Nebraska O vs. Troy D: Edge Nebraska. I think Bunch will handle himself just fine. The run game looked spectacular, although a cog will be missing without Martinez, but that just opens up the passing cog for functionality. Nebraska is always looking for new, shiny, and expensive things to showcase with. We always want more, more, more!

Nebraska D vs. Troy O: Advantage Nebraska. Damn. I knew Nebraska would have to rely on the front 7, but holy shit that was a display we haven't seen in forever. More of that, and less of the shoddy, penalty inducing secondary please.

Special Teams: I would rather see more of Spielman than of Lindsey, but that's just me.

Prediction: I can't be sleeping on the Wildcats too much this week. Oops, sorry, Trojans. They always come ready to play, and after all, they are the defending high school--damnit, Sun Belt, champions. This does make a fantastic game for Bunch to work with as it is still fairly low stakes being a non-conference game. Expect the offense to be not as flashy as against Colorado, but at the same time that's exactly what Daddy Frost wants you to think. On the other hand, losing two in a row is not a good look for a rebuilding program, especially if one is to a G5 school. Nebraska is trying to bop to the top after all.

Nebraska 34, Troy 20

(source: Bleacher Report)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Over(rated)Watch:

#6 Wisconsin - Exposed. And just like last year, back to relying heavily on Jonathan Taylor to win. Even against fucking New Mexico? Come on. You have to let your shitty QB throw it more than 11 times against a team like that, for you know, PRACTICE AGAINST GOOD TEAMS. Because HOPEFULLY, the good teams will figure out that if you stop Jonathan Taylor, you stop Wisconsin. And I know, I know, easier said than done. But the man is fumble prone. It can be done. I believe in some teams. Maybe BYU is that team. Also to the one AP voter that keeps voting them as #1, why?

#7 Auburn - Still Being Watched. I haven't been swayed one way or another quite yet...I'm still thinking just a bit on the high side right now though. They play LSU in a fun overrated SEC matchup though.

#8 Notre Dame - Still Being Watched. Cmon you can't struggle against Ball State like that. I thought we had the new and improved Notre Dame finally. They play Vanderbilt this week

#9 Stanford - Exposed. Much like Wisconsin, they can't do much without Love. Putting up only 17 points against a meh USC team is also bad, even with your best player on the field. Defense checks out though. They play UC Davis? Bleh.

#10 Washington - Back to Being Watched. I'll relegate their status temporarily as maybe Auburn has bought them some legitimacy, but only time will tell. They play Utah in their first road game of the year.

#12 LSU - Still Being Watched. This matchup against Auburn will be telling for one of these teams, or both.

Proven their worth: #13 Virginia Tech
No teams were removed for losing

Hot Take Central:

-Still no major upsets, time is ticking on this one...
-Can't really make anything on defense yet. Maybe that one guy from Houston?
-We are now down to 6 win-less Power 5 teams and holy shit Kansas got a win. Do we get a half hot take conversion for that one?
-I was really feeling that Nebraska would hit a fake punt in the Colorado game. Then again I always think that they should try it. Oh well. 10 games left to try it
-Again, we're still in the non-conference so its hard to judge conference champions, but its currently shaping up to be pretty vanilla right now
-I now firmly believe that unless the ACC cannibalizes themselves as well (which is now likely), there won't be a representative from the Big Ten. Other than Ohio State, everyone looks equally ass, but I can see Ohio State taking a stumble down the road
-The Big 12 is gaining some steam as a possible contender to snipe the second SEC spot, but there's still time

Not feeling any new takes right now, so let's check back next week as we get some old takes to settle.

Prediction Center:

We start the year winning with a 2-1 record and a bonus point for hitting the Upset Alert!

#12 LSU @ #7 Auburn - Auburn 24, LSU 21

Man, any other day I'm taking LSU, but I can't deny Auburn at home. However, what will be proven is how equally shitty these two teams are.

#17 Boise State @ #24 Oklahoma State - Boise State 41, OK State 34

Holy shit I didn't know this was a regular season match-up that I needed in my life. Boise State will do its best Big 12 impersonation as they have destroyed the two teams they've played this year. But so has OK State. But Boise did it better.

#4 Ohio State @ #15 TCU - TCU 34, Ohio St 27

Remember how I said Ohio State would stumble? Coach-less on the road. That's how.

Upset Alert: #21 Miami @ Toledo: Since I can't double dip with Ohio State, I think Miami gets overrated and flustered on the road here.

Let's Try This Again (vs. Colorado)

Recap:

The Rain started slow, but ultimately their aerial attacks were too much to overcome for Nebraska.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Ok but really. It stinks that the game got washed out. But it definitely makes this upcoming matchup against Colorado all the more interesting. Old Big 8/12 "rivals" squaring off for the first time since 2010 before both teams split in their own direction (Colorado to the Pac-10 which would be then renamed the Pac-12, and Nebraska to the Big Ten that's still called the Big Ten even though there are 14 teams.) I say "rivals" because we all know that Nebraska has had Colorado's number both historically and fairly recently before the conference break up. But this Saturday presents an interesting case where we might end up with a closer-than-expected game. We still don't know what we're working with for Nebraska because their first game got rained out. As far as we know, we're still expected to have a fairly lit, but nervous offense, and a stout defense to get them out of tough spots. Colorado meanwhile, is coming in fresh off destroying the living daylights out of Colorado State. But let's take a further look at that shall we?

Hawaii vs Colorado State started off with Hawaii just going ham in the passing game to jump out to an early first half lead. In the second half however, Colorado State was able to turn it back into a close game before ultimately losing. Ok. We expected a tough tight battle between two shitty teams, and well, maybe that's what we got? Fast forward to last weekend, Hawaii ends up beating Navy in a close one. Is Hawaii truly good? If they're good they showed it in the first half against Colorado State. Is Navy bad? Because then they lost to a Hawaii team that almost blew it to a shitty Colorado State team. Is Colorado State really that bad? Well, they did just let the Colorado QB throw all over the place in a bloodshed game, so lets go with that timeline.

I think the payoff point for this game will be seeing how the Colorado defense holds up. Yeah they held Colorado State pretty tight, but come on, it was Colorado State. They haven't really been super great as of late. They really shouldn't have let McElwain walk.

Nebraska O vs. Colorado D: Edge Nebraska. Since this will be the true first game for the Huskers (fingers crossed), expect some first game jitters from the young squad, but to eventually get it going. This could present a situation where the Colorado defense might look good, but ultimately they won't be able to keep up for four quarters

Nebraska D vs. Colorado O: Edge Nebraska. The only thing that scares me is maybe the Colorado QB is pretty good. Against an always shaky Nebraska secondary, this could spell trouble, so let's try to limit the damage here and prove to me that we actually have a decent secondary this year.

Special Teams: Man, that kickoff set up against Akron looked great, don't you agree?

Prediction: I'm a bit more scared of Colorado this week than I was last week, all things considered. First game jitters, and Colorado indeed looking pretty well over an inferior opponent. Expect a close first half, maybe tied, maybe down by 3-7, but I think Scotty and the boys will get it together in the second half and finish strong. Forecast is calling for a slight chance of rain, so who knows, maybe Rain will go 2-0 against Nebraska.

Nebraska 38, Colorado 30

(Source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Again, the computer rankings won't be publicized until after the 3rd week for an accurate sample size. I did however update the regression formula to count the 2017 season stats, and when reapplying that new formula to last year's results, Alabama still held the top spot while Central Florida dropped to #3 in favor of Penn State. Nebraska was still ranked pretty lowly, earning a nice old 3.5 wins as opposed to just under 4 the first formula gave.

Over(rated)Watch:

Now that we have some results, let's take my anger out on the pre-season AP poll and how shitty of a job they're doing with this whole "ranking by poll inertia".

#5 Wisconsin - Being Watched. Wisconsin this past season and a half reminds me of the 2006-07 Chicago Bears. Really good defense, great run game, but just a god awful QB. Is Wisconsin a top ten team? Sure. Are they the favorite to win the Big Ten West? Again, sure. But until I see better QB play out of Hornibrook, I think Wisconsin is far and away from being in the Top 4 and thus in the playoff discussion. Their average play against Western Kentucky showcased that. They continue their non-conference schedule with New Mexico.

#7 Auburn - Being Watched. This is just me and my anti-Auburn bias going right now. They proved their worth last year, but they're going to need to do it again, and a tight win over Washington is too early to determine one way or the other. They play Alabama State next lol.

#8 Notre Dame - Being Watched. Again, just for the sake of putting them on the list. I don't think a win over an obviously overrated Michigan can justify one way or another at this moment. They play Ball State as the non-conference continues to wind on.

#9 Washington - Overrated. You can't lose to a currently questionable Auburn team and still remain in the top 10. Cmon AP voters. They play North Dakota so please prove me wrong.

#10 Stanford - Being Watched. Stanford has continually proved that you can have one really good running back carry your team to success. I don't think such a team should be in the Top 10 but here we are. They're like Wisconsin, but worse. They do get USC this week in what should be an interesting test for our "non-conference" slate.

#11 LSU - Being Watched. Chill out, you only beat an overrated Miami. They play South East Louisiana next. Woo.

#12 Virginia Tech - Being Watched. Again, just for the sake of monitoring how they do. They play William & Mary next. Thrilling.

Hot Take Central:

Quick recap of last week's hot takes:
-Well, we almost got a few upsets? There's still time...
-Its only been one week but unfortunately no stand out defensive studs yet
-There are currently 13 Power 5 teams not named Kansas that are 0-1 (14 if you include Kansas)
-Nebraska hasn't even played a game yet
-Way too early to even think about championship season standings

New Takes:

The Big Ten will NOT have a representative in the playoffs this year. I think there will be some self-cannibalization that will ultimately hurt the Big Ten unless we see some cannibalization from other conferences (maybe the ACC?)

With that being said, this will probably be another year of 2 SEC teams making it, with the other two spots being occupied by the Big 12 and the ACC (RIP Pac-12 parity)

Prediction Center:

Let's get some predictions started this year!

#3 Georgia @ #24 South Carolina: Georgia 34, SCAR 15

South Carolina is coming off a better than expected season last year, but unfortunately they'll be plateauing at that 9-win level. Jake Fromm State Farm and Georgia meanwhile are out for revenge.

#17 USC @ #10 Stanford: Stanford 24, USC 20

Even though I said Stanford is overrated, USC doesn't have The Darnold anymore and nearly screwed the pooch against UNLV. Look for some LOL in this game (Lots of Love)

Upset Alert: #15 Michigan State @ Arizona State. I think the Spartans should be able to take care of business, but boy did one team look really good last week and the other looked like hot overrated shit in a near loss. Then again the last time I put a team on upset alert, they blew the other team out of the fucking water (looking at you FAU).

Ohio (Come Back to Nebraska. Vs. Akron)

It's that time of the year again folks. The grill gets warm, the takes get hot, and the coolers get a little...frosty. Yep, it's game day at Memorial Stadium and there's no place like Nebraska. The rumors were fulfilled as Nebraska got their golden dream boy Scott Frost to come back home to coach whatever dignity is left in this team after last year's embarrassment. I, for one, couldn't be happier as the hype surrounding this first game has been just as real as when Nebraska almost got it together for the potential undefeated season a few years back (who would've thought that was Riley's doing?).

Since this is the first game of the year, we don't really have much to recap, so let us look at what we are dealing with this year:

The Squad:

Offense:

A dual-threat freshman quarterback from California with a last name Martinez? Sign me up. Obviously he'll have some first game jitters, but that is to be expected. What is equally unfortunate is that the rest of the offense is fairly young as well when it comes to the skill positions. We return Stanley Morgan Jr thank god, but Spielman, Lindsey and Reimers look to make a huge impact as well as they transition to full-time receivers. We have nearly all brand new tight ends, but they're physically huge and imposing so look for their presence to be felt in some way. And then there are the running backs. If you peep at the depth chart you'll notice a few things: 1) Wilbon isn't even listed as outside of the 4-string which is interesting. 2) Ozigbo is once again not the sure-fire starter. Which leads to 3) Greg Bell. He looked phenomenal in the spring game, so if he's anything like Tre Bryant was (RIP his knees), I can see why he got the start over Ozigbo. But that still leaves an entire core of running backs with no meaningful game time experience outside of Ozigbo, which can be concerning. So in terms of starters, Morgan, Spielman, Ozigbo, and you can argue Reimers, are the only players that have previous meaningful game time experience. Yikes. Down the road this'll be an amazing line up, but it's pretty tough to be excited about youth when we're looking at the microscope that is this season.

What's even worse is that Nebraska is already short one quarterback as Gebbia Gtfo'ed when he wasn't named the starter. Which is unfortunate as he looked promising as well and a very serviceable backup. But I understand, kid just wants to play. BUT, that means we must protect Martinez's toes at all costs. Even the smallest injury and we're seeing Ryker Fyfe status of backups. Which is a shame, I was looking forward for Nebraska to turn into Ohio State where they could plug in anyone at QB and win. Ah well.

Defense and Special Teams:

The defense will be Nebraska's golden side of the ball as a good majority of the starters are coming back. The secondary will be questionable as always, but I'm having full confidence in the front 7 to get some jobs done. What I'm also hoping, is that the new coaching staff will teach these guys how to tackle like you want to tackle someone, not just give them a hug. I need to see some fire in my defenses. I wanna see someone get knocked out. Pretty sure the last big hit I've seen out of a Nebraska defense was when Randy Gregory was around. That man was out for blood. We need that kind of intensity back into the defense. Bring us back to 1997 Scott.

The special teams look interesting as we will be embracing a brand new kicker. Hopefully Lightbourn has improved as well, and for the first time in four years, we won't have DeMornay returning. Which I'm not sure how I feel about that statement. Yeah he was good, but injuries plagued him and made him not good, which gives Nebraska a chance to finally try some other guys with equal potential out there. And according to their depth chart, I think they got the right guys on there as they have Spielman and Lindsey listed as the main returners. If you look back on my posts, I've been calling for Spielman to be returning since about the fourth game of last season over DeMornay. I think he's got something special. Don't let me down.

So let's look at this schedule shall we? Nebraska does have one of the toughest schedules in the conference, some may argue in the nation. Not exactly a present Scott Frost was looking forward to, a young team with a brutal schedule. But I have faith. Somehow. At the very worst this team should still be bowl eligible. If everything strikes correctly, we could see a Big Ten championship game.

Game 1 vs. Akron: See below for the extended version, but spoilers, W.

Game 2 vs. Colorado: They had something going on the last couple seasons, but the man that made it happen has now graduated. We'll see what happens after one game, but I'm not scared of them. W.

Game 3 vs. Troy: Ok now you got me a little shook. Troy is no pushover. Sun Belt champs last year, and usually once a year they get their big win on the road. Last year it was LSU. They have a new QB and a new running core, but their top receivers are sticking around. We'll look later, but Troy always comes to play. And you better believe I'll be making a High School Musical reference for this post. But for now, W, but I'll call it a toss up.

Game 4 @ Michigan: Now we get to have some fun. When the schedule first got analyzed, I definitely wrote this off as a loss, but now, Nebraska might stand a chance. Yes, Michigan is returning their shut down defense from last year, but their offense is entirely made over, which could still be a bad thing. Like yeah, Michigan's offense was horrendous last year, but idk maybe this new guy doesn't like the scheme? Plus I hear people are sick of Harbaugh so drrraaaaammmmaaaaaa. L, but let's check back later.

Game 5 vs. Purdue: Purdue can't be totally written off as they should be improving this year, but so is Nebraska. W.

Game 6 @ Wisconsin: Sooo....that Jonathan Taylor guy is still around...fortunately so too is Hornibrook. Back to unfortunately, so is that defense. L, but let's check back later.

Game 7 @ Northwestern: Northwestern is always chippy, but somehow Nebraska always wins in Lincoln North. W.

Game 8 vs. Minnesota: I'm still not entirely convinced Minnesota is on its way up in terms of "teams I'm scared of" plus its a home game. W.

Game 9 @ Ohio State: Are you sure you don't want to fire Urban Meyer? Let's check back in on the drama, but this is probably the only sure fire L.

Game 10 vs. Illinois: Lol. W.

Game 11 vs. Michigan State: Michigan State has made its way to my overrated list already, but they usually don't disappoint. L, but let's check back later.

Game 12 @ Iowa: Ugh. Why does Iowa always play Nebraska super hard? Because its a road game and Nebraska is young, this'll be an L, but of course, we'll check back later.

So I see 5 probably L's, which puts Nebraska at 7-5. I personally think 8-4 is manageable if we can flip one of those probable Ls and I wouldn't hold my breath for a return of the 9 win seasons. But this is a tough road schedule so it is not exactly great in Nebraska's favor, especially with a young team. Which is why most fans should be expecting to return to a bowl game, but let's not get too carried away with our expectations.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Which turns us to the first game of the season against Akron. Some may argue that the only good that has come out of that city is LeBron James. The football team does not fall under the "good" category. They went a very uninspiring 7-7 last year (which yes I know is better than what Nebraska did. Hush.) However they managed to win their side of the MAC with a 6-2 conference record after finishing non-conference play 1-3. They proceeded to get blown the fuck out by Toledo in the MAC Championship, and then by the Lane Train of FAU in their respective bowl game. Which is hilarious, because Akron is actually alright on defense. Its just that their offense can't keep up.

So looking into this game, can't really say they should be threatening. The only interesting thing to see will be how this "decent" defense stacks up against this new, young, Nebraska offense. I think they'll be ok though.

Nebraska O vs. Akron D: Edge Nebraska. Perfect way to see what we're working with by going up against a marginal defense as the first game. I think they'll start slow, but by the second half they'll be rolling. They might be looking for their next backup quarterback by the time that rolls around hopefully. Frost has said he's going to do a running back by committee to keep things fresh, and I for one, am looking forward to a bunch of quarterback draws, receiver sweeps, and all the fun back field fuckery that we've seen from Oregon and Central Florida in years prior.

Nebraska D vs. Akron O: Advantage Nebraska. The defense is the one thing fans can count on this year to be remotely consistent (hopefully). Most of Akron's offense is returning, but they are giving the reigns to a new sort of dual threat QB, which historically Nebraska has been terrible at defending. But I don't think Akron of all teams is flashy enough to pose a threat.

Prediction: Well, the last time I said that a MAC team with an ok defense was coming into Lincoln on a night game would flop, it didn't end well. Let's try again, because if THIS Nebraska team loses to Akron, we're in for another rough season.

Nebraska 45, Akron 17

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

I'm not going to roll into predictions for the first week just because we still don't know who is real and who is fake. I still hate the pre-season AP Poll, and for whatever reason, Tennessee is favored by 9 against West Virginia. I'm also putting Oklahoma on upset alert against the Lane Train. Let's use those as my "predictions" of the week.

Instead I'm going to use this week as a base to recap my model from last year and the results:

Here is the FINAL rankings (aka after the national championship game was played):

1) Alabama
2) Central Florida
3) Penn State
4) Washington
5) Georgia
6) Ohio State
7) Oklahoma
8) Clemson
9) Wisconsin
10) Auburn
11) Florida Atlantic
12) TCU
13) Oklahoma State
14) Memphis
15) South Florida
16) Toledo
17) Virginia Tech
18) Ohio
19) San Diego State
20) Arkansas State
21) Oregon
22) Appalachian State
23) Troy
24) Arizona
25) Notre Dame

One thing you'll quickly notice is the abundance of G5 teams on this ranking. Again, the model I'm using projects a team's ability to win given their stats, so if a G5 team is raking in a weak conference, then they'll be a bit more favored than your average Power 5 team, but that just means they're taking care of business. Can we subjectively say that last year Florida Atlantic was better than TCU? I'm going with no, but I would imagine it would've been a pretty decent game to watch. And that could also be partially answered tomorrow as FAU heads to Oklahoma, which yes, they are not the same teams as last year (In fact Oklahoma is worse lol). We still had Penn State as the 3rd best team in the nation, but they ended without even going to the Big Ten championship let alone the playoffs. This can probably be backed up that maybe they had the third best talent in the nation, but they could just never consistently bring it together, in my opinion.

Anyway, another thing I did was count to see how often teams were ranked by this model, for a maximum of 12 weeks (tracking began in Week 3 for a large enough sample size), and here are those results, from most often on down:

1) Alabama - 12
2) Central Florida - 12
3) Penn State - 12
4) Washington - 12
5) Oklahoma - 12
6) Clemson - 12
7) Wisconsin - 12
8) TCU - 12
9) Oklahoma State - 12
10) Virginia Tech - 12
11) Arizona - 12
12) Georgia - 11
13) Auburn - 11
14) South Florida - 11
15) Ohio State - 10
16) Notre Dame - 9
17) Miami - 9
18) UTSA - 8
19) Florida Atlantic - 7
20) Ohio - 7
21) Arkansas State - 7
22) Stanford - 7
23) Oregon - 6
24) Toledo - 4
25) Kansas State - 4
7 others tied with 4 (Fresno St, Miss St, Wake, Utah, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech)

Other notes: Highest end of the year ranking with no Top 25 appearances = Louisville, finished 26th
Lowest end of the year ranking with at least one Top 25 appearance = Maryland, finished 114th (out of 130 teams)
Alabama and Central Florida were the only teams to have ever been #1. Central Flordia was always either #1 or #2. Alabama was as low as #20.
A total of 46 teams made at least one Top 25 appearance since tracking began in Week 3.

This year I'll do better tracking of games predicted throughout the year through this model, AND, I'll bring back my short term model from a few years back to see which is better at what.

Hot Take Central:

New section this year! Especially since it is the first week and I don't have much else to discuss. Each week I'll bring a set of hot takes, whether they're opinionated or formulated. This may run some parallels to Over(rated)Watch, which yes, will make a return once we see what teams are capable of. To start:

We will have one major top-10 non-conference upset (looking at you FAU)

An exclusively defensive player will be a Heisman finalist (none of this part time returner crap)

A Power 5 team not named Kansas will go 0-12

Nebraska will execute AND SCORE on a fake punt/FG

A Power 5 team that has not won their conference in the last 10 years, will win this year. So if your name is not: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Oregon, Stanford, USC, or Washington, I LIKE YOUR ODDS! (Kansas State did win a share of the Big 12 title in that one awkward year where everyone left but they didn't have the format down, but I'm not recognizing that, because its K-State) (Also believe it or not, Georgia would have been left off this list if they didn't win last year, their last SEC Title was in 2005)

May the numbers ever be in your favor this year!

Sweet Madness

One of the things I love about March Madness is that no matter how you go about it, no one will ever know what is going to happen. You might be looking good after the first day by going 14-2, then Virginia gets blindsided by a 16 seed. Two more of  your Final Four teams proceed to lose the next day, and suddenly you just want UMBC to run the table. Oh, just me? Ok then.

This year I finally did try my hand at an analytical approach, and for the moment, those brackets are in much better shape than my personal modifications (which we'll get to later). I ran three different analysis using a regression formula: Round by Round score, Best "Champion" score, and the average of the Round by Round (this one is sucking so I won't go into too much detail, but it is self explanatory)

The Round by Round score was the result of 6 regression formulas, one for how likely the team was to win that corresponding round, meaning the first formula was how likely a team was going to win their first round game, the second formula was how likely they would win their second round game (provided they won their first round) and so on and so forth all the way up to 6, which is the number of wins you need to be the champion. For example; Kansas vs. Penn and Rhode Island vs. Oklahoma: Kansas came up with a first round score of 1.12 while Penn had -3.11. Rhode Island had a -1.42 while Oklahoma had a staggering -3.84 *cough cough*. Naturally, both Kansas and RI were selected as winners (and they won yay). But, lets say it was Kansas vs. Rhode Island and Oklahoma vs. Penn in the first round; Kansas still has the advantage over Rhode Island's score, but here we would be favoring Penn over Oklahoma (although not by much). For the second round though, we would then look at their second round scores. So using this example again (since it is what happened); Kansas vs. Seton Hall and Duke vs. Rhode Island: Kansas's second round score was a -.49, compared to Seton Hall's -6.799. For Duke and RI; Duke had a second round score of -2.696, while RI had a -7.54. Again, had we had the matchups swapped, Kansas would still be winning, whereas Seton Hall would get the advantage on Rhode Island in that instance.

Does this lead to some skewed results? Sure. It hella depends on who you draw as a matchup. Personally I would think Oklahoma wouldn't be bad enough to lose to Penn, but the world will never know. To rectify any potential skewness of the "depends on the matchup" theory, this lead me to create the Best "Champion" score bracket, which was derived by solely taking the best score from Formula 6 and working my way through the bracket in reverse, starting with who was most likely to win it all. So here, spoiler alert, Villanova was the overall favorite, so I dragged them to the championship immediately, regardless of who they played. Then working down the list, we get North Carolina as the second favorite (RIP). Since they do not play Villanova until the Finals, UNC got a free ride there (whoops). Michigan ended up being 3rd, but what stunk for them was that they would've had to face UNC in the Sweet 16. And since UNC already had scored higher, we would chop Michigan's trip up early. This hurts the bracket, but we might have a new finals favorite behind Villanova now.

And to those Nebrasketballers that are curious: In the Round by Round, Nebraska comes in as the 57th most likely team to win their first round with a -2.299. And they came 104th most likely to win it all. Both scores were still behind Mississippi State. Just sayin.

Anyway let us dive into how these brackets are actually doing compared to mine and let's see if we can predict the Sweet 16 onward!

(Source: TheNation.com)


To start with, we'll look at my bracket, which is a humanly modified version of the Round by Round bracket. Aka, I just couldn't stand taking Tennessee into the Sweet 16. And I was right!

Current Score: 420. Remaining: 720

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 9/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Arizona, Cincinnati, Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State and New Mexico State)

Elite 8 Teams left: 4/8 (Villanova, Purdue, Gonzaga, Kansas)

Final Four Teams left: 1 (Villanova)

Champion alive?: Yes, Villanova.

I'd like to think my bracket was on the traditional chalky path. The only bold picks I had was Loyola and New Mexico State going into the Sweet 16 and we at least split that difference. The East is still near perfect, but it's a dumpster fire outside of that. And even then, Villanova has a tough task ahead to get to the Final Four by having to get through a rowdy West Virginia team as well as *cough Purdue cough* albeit they're injured. The fact that they're my last hope is sad though, as I don't really like Villanova.

Round by Round Bracket:

Current Score: 400. Remaining: 1120

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 8/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Arizona, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State and New Mexico State)

Elite 8 Teams left: 6/8 (Villanova, Purdue, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Duke)

Final Four Teams left: 3 (Villanova, Michigan, Kansas)

Champion alive?: Yes, Michigan

As mentioned above, my actual bracket was pretty much a copy from this one with the only change being Loyola over Tennessee before the Sweet 16. Where my computer decided to slap me in the face was what happens beyond the Sweet 16. Much like the rest of the world, the South Region is completely fucked over. The biggest difference that this bracket decided to take on that I might lose sleep over because I struggled with this decision personally, was the predicted Michigan vs. UNC matchup in the Sweet 16. The computer picked Michigan as the slight favorite, and while I cannot deny that Michigan is always hot late, I also cannot deny past results, which had UNC slaughtering Michigan earlier in the year. The world will never know due to the upset of North Carolina, and now Michigan has a fairly safe ride into the Elite 8, where they could match up better against a weaker-than-usual Gonzaga team (most likely), or get lucky and pull Florida State.

Best "Champion" Bracket:

Current Score: 440. Remaining: 960

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 10/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Tennessee, Xavier, South Dakota State (lol), North Carolina and Auburn)

Elite 8 Teams left: 6/8 (Kentucky, Nevada, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas, Duke)

Final Four Teams left: 3 (Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas)

Champion alive?: Yes, Villanova

Right now in the best position potentially, and probably one of the only brackets that lucked out on what happened in the South. Call it crazy stupid luck or call it science, but it actually has Kentucky and Nevada meeting in the Elite 8 (Kentucky over Virginia and Nevada both on Cincy and Tennessee). We can easily argue that both Kentucky and Nevada has significantly easier games to reach the Elite 8. Unfortunately, where there are wins, there are losses, and the loss came in the mighty West, because for whatever reason the model loved South Dakota State to go on a run. Additionally with this bracket, the East region is perfect. The Syracuse over Michigan State upset was also predicted in this bracket, and as such, we have an early favorite when it comes down to predicting March Madness.

But with the new results, let's see how each would have done if we reset everything to the current Sweet 16, eh?

Round by Round (so Sweet 16 would be Round 3):

Kentucky over Kansas State
Nevada over Loyola
Villanova over West Virginia
Purdue over Texas Tech
Gonzaga over Florida State
Michigan over Texas A&M
Duke over Syracuse
Kansas over Clemson

Elite 8 (Round 4):

Kentucky over Nevada
Villanova over Purdue
Michigan over Gonzaga
Kansas over Duke

Final Four (Round 5): Actually after re-reading my sheet I realized I made a mistake in my bracket, I should have had Kansas beating Villanova anyway, whoops.

Michigan over Kentucky
Kansas over Villanova

Finals: Michigan over Kansas


Best "Champion" Bracket:

Sweet 16:

Kentucky over Kansas State
Nevada over Loyola
Villanova over West Virginia
Purdue over Texas Tech
Gonzaga over Florida State
Michigan over Texas A&M
Duke over Syracuse (barely)
Kansas over Clemson

Elite 8:

Kentucky over Nevada
Villanova over Purdue
Michigan over Gonzaga
Kansas over Duke

Final Four:

Michigan over Kentucky
Villanova over Kansas

Finals: Villanova over Michigan

So it is looking like both models are going about a similar path, with the only difference being Villanova beating Kansas and winning it all, instead of Michigan beating Kansas. Either way, it is looking like Michigan is in good favor after North Carolina's early exit. Only time will tell as we still have two more fantastic weekends of this tournament! (And more time for my actual bracket to burn in flames and hope that I score the "lucky" 50th  place prize in my work pool. Which is not last!)

The Perfect Playoff Doesn't Exist

Season Recap and Going Bowling:

Two years ago when I launched this public project, I went ahead and did bowl predictions for every single damn bowl game, both for me and for my computer. I didn't do it last year and thought about making that public this year but due to time, decided nah fam. This year for my bowl picks, I've exclusively went with just my regression model from this year (meaning zero input from me no matter what), which is good and bad. We are currently standing at 19-15, which is already one win better than what my computer model had two years ago (didn't track last year), so it seems we have a slight model improvement with the change in formula. But at the same time we're still shooting a measly 55%. Unfortunately, we hit 3 of those losses in one, very sad day where each of those three games came down to the final possession. But whatever, let's break this down a bit.

So again the regression model I used is only tracking how many wins a team should be getting based on the numbers they are putting up. This is a good measurement to track what a team is capable of long term, but we need to consider other factors such as potential schedule (see Central Florida). This is also a bad thing, as a long term forecast will not do a great job of short-term forecasting in the event of injuries, inactives, weather, etc. Which is why I'm bummed at myself for not doing a better job of tracking games as the season progressed. However, I will say that when you retroactively apply the final standings in the regression model to the entire season, we're getting about 80% accuracy in all of the 1000 some games played (which is how I determined the bowl picks). Not bad. But again, not great when what we're trying to accomplish is a perfect predicting machine, especially if you're trying to do it in the moment. (perfection is impossible, but we can get damn close to it right?)

Which is why I'm happy and sad at our current 19-15 bowl record. This model is not the greatest at predicting short term outcomes (or being fed off-the-field information), so we either need to make further adjustments, or use some human information when making these picks. But why I am happy, is that we've only had a handful of bad misses (6 out of 15. Compared to two years ago we ended up with a total of 11 bad misses. Mind you we still have a handful of games to go. A bad miss being defined as a pick losing by 14+ points), 2 of our losses could have been prevented with some information (Oregon not having Royce Freeman, and Northern Illinois not having their starting QB). The rest of the losses have been by one possession, which is frustrating because we could be looking at a 26-8 record if those broke that way (one can argue that the one possession wins could have also broke for losses, you hush with that. Positive vibes only). Next year I would like to do a better job of keeping track of this model as it runs through the season (again we'd probably have to start at around Week 3 in order to have a large enough sample size for the standings to reflect properly), and I would like to also compare it to the model I used to run, which in my opinion, did a better job of predicting on a game by game status. But that is also the beauty of bowl games, random shit happens because different teams have different motivations, and we are likely to see some random upsets.

Either way I'm still somehow in the top 20% of the nation for bowl picks, so we take those?

We're Talking Playoffs?:

Anyway, the real reason for this post is that the 4th year of the College Football Playoff is upon us, and every year it is the same shit about which teams should be in it or not. My immediate answer to this is "Stfu, no matter how you do it, some team is going to be pissed off". In the BCS era, it was the top 2, with #3 getting left out. In this era, we have top 4 with #5 getting left out. So I asked myself, is there possibly a way to satisfy top teams without diluting the privilege of playing for the national championship? Let's look.

Hypothetical Situation #1: So this year; we have Clemson (ACC Champ), Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ), Georgia (SEC Champ), and Alabama (SEC at-large), leaving out Ohio State (Big 10 Champ). So let's say we expand to 8 teams: Hypothetically this year, we might've seen:

The above five
Auburn (SEC runner-up)
Wisconsin (Big Ten runner-up)
and either USC (Pac-12 Champ) or Miami (ACC runner-up)

So that last point right there already brings up one problem. We still have a fight for that 8th spot just in that hypothetical situation alone. In my personal opinion, I think both teams suck and shouldn't be in, but if we need 8 teams, we need 8 teams. Who should it be? And what about Central Florida? Even at 8 teams, they're still getting snubbed (again if I had it my way, it would probably be UCF over both USC and Miami, but I never hold the popular opinion).

Hypothetical Situation #2: So let's try to get UCF into the playoffs. What about 16 teams? That's a nice even number:

The above nine
Central Florida (Undefeated, AAC Champ)
Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
Washington (Pac-12 at-large)
TCU (Big 12 runner-up)
Notre Dame
Stanford (Pac-12 runner-up)
???

So now we have a similar, but still new, problem. Who should the 16th team be? We have a lot to choose from, and to be honest, I think it's a stretch having even Stanford in, but again we need to fill spots and I think a conference runner-up should be in (this is implying Washington is better than Stanford and don't tell me otherwise. Or show me the score of that game). You can already see that we're diluting the national championship by giving these conference runner-ups and at-larges the chance. What if by some magic a 9-win Stanford team runs the table to win it all? What the fuck is what I would be thinking. And then even still, we need to fill that 16th spot. Memphis, Boise State, Troy, South Florida, and Toledo are the only other teams with 10 wins not mentioned, and if we inserted a generic 9-win team (let's say Michigan State because they are ranked 16th), then that opens up the can of worms of deciding who is truly the best 9-win team in the nation. We'd need our own damn playoff to figure that one out.

Hypothetical Situation #3: So let's try the the basketball approach. Good ol' March Madness has a nice system of giving every conference winner an automatic bid to the tournament, but shit even at 68 teams we're still throwing bitch fits about why #69, 70, 71, or 72 didn't get in. But for the sake of argument and curiosity, here is my proposed "Champs first" 16 team playoff:

Clemson (ACC)
Oklahoma (Big 12)
Georgia (SEC)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
USC (Pac-12)
Central Florida (AAC)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA)
Toledo (MAC)
Boise State (Mountain West)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Alabama, Auburn, Wisconsin, Penn State, Miami, TCU (runner-ups/at-larges)

In this instance, we are replacing Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford and whoever our 16th mystery team from above, with conference champions (FAU, Toledo, Boise, and Troy). Now again, this seems like it would work out, but is that fair to the above teams to be left out? And who gets to decide what? Penn State has the same status as Washington being an at-large team, why did I arbitrarily put them in instead (in a world where the Fiesta Bowl hasn't happened yet)? Do we really want to give these other four minor conference champions a chance even though they didn't even go undefeated (much less in their own conference)? In my opinion, this becomes the closest solution as we are respecting conference champions as a whole, but we are indeed allowing some lesser teams have a shot, at the sacrifice of a team that could probably beat them, and still asking ourselves the question, whom of the at-larges, should truly be in the playoff?

Bottom line, no matter how you stack it up, unless our society as a whole is ok with letting some lesser teams have a shot like the basketball tournament, we just need to suck it up. Someone is not going to be happy. An 8-team playoff could work, barring we don't have any Central Floridas. But we still struggle with trying to find out who that 8th team would be without the #9 team getting all pissy. 16 teams does sound like a lot, but the NCAA loves their money so they probably wouldn't be against it, but that is allowing a lot of teams that may be undeserving a shot at the title, despite being conference champions. But boy it would be funny if Troy beat Alabama too.

Anything more than 16 teams is just getting out of hand so don't even go there.