Back in Black (Vs. South Alabama)

Hey everyone, been a minute, hasn't it? I honestly don't remember why I sort of petered out with the posting toward the end of the last season, it was kind of a weird time for me and I just wasn't quite getting the satisfaction of doing these as I normally did. But I hope to change that this year. More posts, both for college and NFL, maybe I'll start doing fantasy advice since I'm not directly competing with anyone who actively reads this anymore (and we can all agree that I'm the most consistent player in my family with 4 straight runner-up finishes, although one was an unfortunate tie where I fell one yard short of the win. But we don't talk about that. Or the time I would've won if the 49ers decided not to run an interception all the way back for a touchdown when the game was in hand with only a minute left on the clock. No I'm not bitter at all.)

But we're here to talk about college football. And can anyone fucking stop Clemson or Alabama? The answer is probably no; Clemson has a QB with long luscious golden hair and Alabama is Alabama. But let's take a brief look around the nation to see who is in the rear view mirror and could pose a threat to the dynasty:

Pac-12 - Honestly the Pac-12 should be looking to not be straight ass this year. Washington and Washington State were the only two that broke 10 wins, and Stanford, Oregon, and Utah checked in with 9. Not bad, but no one ever really threatened to be "that team" on the national scale. This year the eyes seem to be on Oregon and Washington early on, and frankly, I just don't see either of them making a national run.

Big XII - The Big 12 definitely fell flat last year with only having Oklahoma and Texas being their two big representatives (insert your daily "lol Texas" here). Iowa State and West Virginia ended up with 8 wins after what looked like promising seasons. Again, not much is changing with Oklahoma and Texas being ranked in the Top 10 in the preseason, which I will rip apart later. Look for Oklahoma to be the national representative, as usual.

Big Ten - The Big Ten is going through a weird phase as a conference. Last year was Ohio State vs. Michigan ft. A Late Collapse by Penn State. And the Big Ten West............yeah. Let's just say you don't want to have your division winner only having 9 wins, despite going 8-1 in conference play. And that's just the beginning. Hot take here is that the Big Ten will regress even further with Michigan being the only national threat as the Big Ten West continues its rebuild. Maybe Nebraska sneaks in. Maybe. Unlikely. But maybe.

SEC - I think everyone knows the story of the SEC by now. However the biggest takeaway from last year was the competitiveness of the SEC East. Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky?!?!? each finished with at least 10 wins, and every team except for Tennessee (insert your daily "lol Tennessee" here) finished with at least 6 wins. Not bad. This year I think we'll see some different surprises challenge Georgia, but for the most part, the power should shift back to the SEC West--I mean Alabama.

ACC - I was reading something prior to getting this typed up about how the ACC is supposed to be deep, and, I mean, depending how you look at it, that argument can maybe be made? Clemson and Syracuse were the only two to finish with 10+ wins, and every team except for Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina, finished with at least 6 wins, which ties the Big 12 and SEC for the fewest teams that failed to reach the 6 win plateau. But then you have to consider that the ACC and SEC are 14-team conferences, and 11/14 looks nicer than 7/10, so sorry Big 12. But the argument still comes in the form that the SEC had much stronger teams than the ACC last year. I'd easily take most of the middle of the pack SEC teams to beat the middle of the pack ACC teams 9 times out of 10. But I'm ranting. Point is, Clemson will be the only good team out of the ACC.

So if you're keeping score at home, that means my playoff picks are Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan. Hold me to it fam.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Ugh, that felt weird outlining the national picture before getting into Nebraska's season. New season, new me? Anyway, before I dig too deep on this year, I'd like to highlight this article I read in great detail about the daunting history of Nebraska from a statistical standpoint and G Bless everyone who worked on it and the folks at the Omaha World Herald for publicizing this. Remember to thank your local journalists.

https://www.omaha.com/huskers/plus/chatelain-this-bizarre-husker-stat-is-so-insane-scott-frost/article_c9eadecd-a2e4-5ccc-9226-ecfaf59d38cc.html

It is a very deep, long, and thorough breakdown of the last 15 years of Nebraska football and I'll give some of yall less invested fans the summary, but I encourage everyone to read it:

In the last 15 years, Nebraska ranks dead last in cumulative turnover margin among Power 5 teams (-80!!!), yet they somehow pulled a 60% win rate, which was good for being Top 30 in that category. The article showcases a chart where turnover margin and win rate is correlative, meaning that if your turnover margin is straight ass, you should not be winning games. Conversely, if you're winning the turnover battle, you're also winning your games. The stat that was thrown in there was that teams who were winning the turnover battle were winning roughly 70% of the time. So how the fuck does a team with a -80 turnover margin in the last 15 years still win 60% of its games? Its remarkable honestly.

The "proving point" if you will, of this article is that if Nebraska is already winning 60% of its games with that shit margin, just think of how much better off Nebraska would be if they had at least a neutral turnover margin during that span. We're talking 10 win seasons, possible conference championships, the list goes on. But instead this is what we're dealt with. And after reading this article, I kind of agreed that, off the top of my head, yeah, our defense hasn't exactly been generating turnovers (which is pointed out in the article), which is half the battle. Obviously the other half is that you don't want to be giving away the ball either. But that is something I want to research a little more as I had an interesting conversation with someone who thinks it is mostly the defense's lack of aggressiveness. I think Nebraska has had some shit QB play. Let's look:

Quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts were selected for this sampling, and I apologize for the long, somewhat hard to read list here:

2004 - Joe Dailey 17 TD, 19 INT, 310 Attempts (1 INT every 16 Attempts, only QB with a negative ratio)

2005 - Zac Taylor 19 TD, 12 INT, 430 Attempts (1 INT every 36 Attempts, ratio about 1.5:1)

2006 - Zac Taylor 26 TD, 8 INT, 391 Attempts (1 INT every 49 Attempts, ratio north of 3:1)

2007 - Sam Keller 14 TD, 10 INT, 325 Attempts (1 INT every 32.5 Attempts, ratio south of 1.5:1); Joe Ganz 16 TD, 7 INT, 152 Attempts (1 INT every 22 Attempts, ratio north of 2:1)

2008 - Joe Ganz 25 TD, 11 INT, 420 Attempts (nice) (1 INT every 38 Attempts, ratio almost 2.5:1)

2009 - Zac Lee 14 TD, 10 INT, 302 Attempts (1 INT every 30.2 Attempts, ratio almost 1.5:1); Cody Green 2 TD, 2 INT, 62 Attempts (1 INT every 31 Attempts, even ratio)

2010 - Taylor Martinez 10 TD, 7 INT, 196 Attempts (1 INT every 28 Attempts, ratio close to 1.5:1); Cody Green 3 TD, 1 INT, 60 Attempts (Think that looks self explanatory)

2011 - Taylor Martinez 13 TD, 8 INT, 288 Attempts (1 INT every 36 Attempts, ratio about 1.5:1)

2012 - Taylor Martinez 23 TD, 12 INT, 368 Attempts (1 INT every 31 Attempts, ratio almost 2:1)

2013 - Taylor Martinez 10 TD, 2 INT, 110 Attempts (1 INT every 55 Attempts, 5:1 ratio); Tommy Armstrong 9 TD, 8 INT, 131 Attempts (1 INT every 16 Attempts, almost 1:1 ratio); Ron Kellogg III 6 TD, 3 INT, 134 Attempts (1 INT every 45 Attempts, 2:1 ratio)

2014 - Tommy Armstrong 22 TD, 12 INT, 345 Attempts (1 INT every 29 Attempts, almost 2:1 ratio)

2015 - Tommy Armstrong 22 TD, 16 INT, 402 Attempts (1 INT every 25 Attempts, ratio south of 1.5:1); Ryker Fyfe 5 TD, 5 INT, 55 Attempts (1 INT every 11 Attempts, even ratio)

2016 - Tommy Armstrong 14 TD, 8 INT, 294 Attempts (1 INT every 37 Attempts, ratio of about 1.5:1); Ryker Fyfe 4 TD, 1 INT, 99 Attempts (Self explanatory)

2017 - Tanner Lee 23 TD, 16 INT, 428 Attempts (1 INT every 27 Attempts, ratio of almost 1.5:1)

2018 - Adrian Martinez 17 TD, 8 INT, 347 Attempts (1 INT every 43 Attempts, ratio north of 2:1)

Grand Totals: 314 TD, 186 INT, 5649 Attempts (1 INT every 30 Attempts, TD:INT ratio of roughly 1.6:1. Yikes)

And yes I know looking only subjectively at a QB's TD:INT ratio along with their Interception rates isn't super indicative of the overall play of said QB, but it kind of does speak a lot. We can still identify Nebraska's better offensive years came with solid QB play. Namely 2006 Zac Taylor, 2008 Joe Ganz, you can argue for 2013 Martinez if he didn't get hurt, and last year with Adrian Martinez after he was healthy and turned a corner. (And yes, I'm aware of a thing called "fumbles" but that's a whole nother category that I didn't want to dig into because of 1) Time and 2) The aforementioned article covers that as well, please read that!)

But perfect segue into this year's squad. Martinez strikes back. After starting abysmally 0-6, Nebraska turned the corner and went 4-2 in their last 6 to finish 4-8, with almost upsetting Ohio State on the road as the highlight during that stretch. We saw flashes of what the young offense could do last year in the second half of the season, but now we need to see if they can translate that success further with probably this year and next year being the key years of this offense. Martinez, Spielman, Warner, the tight ends, and Washington (if he stays out of trouble) highlight the returning starters, while they also add Wandale Robinson, who is supposed to be the Deluxe Model of Rondale Moore from Purdue, to add another level of offensive threat to this side of the ball. As usual, defense doesn't change too much except holy shit we have this thing called depth now. And by god, if Nebraska can keep the penalties down, there is a reason why they're favored to win the Big Ten West because let's take a look at this easy breezy cover girl schedule they have:

Game 1 vs. South Alabama - Will discuss further, W

Game 2 @ Colorado - Nebraska should have won last year, and with facing an even worse Colorado team this year, they won't make this close this year. W

Game 3 vs. Northern Illinois - Last time Northern Illinois came to town, they scraped by with a win, but accelerated the firing of the old staff, so honestly thanks fam. A much different team this time around should yield different results. If they do win again, then maybe they'll get another staff fired. W

Game 4 @ Illinois - When I was typing this I completely forgot about Illinois being on our schedule. That just tells ya how I think this game will go. W

Game 5 vs. Ohio State - Hottest take here is that I have Michigan winning the Big Ten. Why? Because I think Ohio State is overrated as fuck this year. This is still a tough game, but having Ohio State at home makes this NOT the hardest game on Nebraska's schedule. W, but a toss up.

Game 6 vs. Northwestern -  Northwestern surprised some people last year with their interesting Big Ten run. And they always come prepared to play and are never an easy out. W, but I'll mark them as a toss up for now.

Game 7 @ Minnesota - MiNnEsOtA iS a GoOd TeAm. They say as they almost lose to South Dakota State. W

Game 8 vs. Indiana - Not much to discuss at the moment, Indiana has improved but they're never really a threat. W

Game 9 @ Purdue - Now THIS team from Indiana I'm scared of. Which are words I'd never thought I'd say "I'm scared for Purdue". Purdue has made some incredible strides and unless something collapses halfway through the season, they have a great shot at burning Nebraska with their offense. The only surefire L

Game 10 vs. Wisconsin - PLEASE BEAT WISCONSIN FOR ONCE THIS IS THE YEAR TO DO IT. W, but a toss up

Game 11 @ Maryland - Maryland has shown flashes of brilliance lately but hasn't quite brought it together yet, I'm not scared of them yet. W

Game 12 vs. Iowa - There's something about Iowa that always gives Nebraska a scare, but barring some changes through the first 11 games, this should be Nebraska's year. W, but a toss up.

To those who can't count, that is a best case 11-1 with a worst case of 7-5, and reasonably I've been saying winning at least 9 shouldn't be a challenge. It all depends on the defense though. But I honestly think that if things break the right direction, this is the schedule to go undefeated, unlike last year's nightmare schedule where all of the hard games were on the road.

Which brings us to Game 1! There really isn't a ton to say about South Alabama. They come from the Sun Belt, which yes a team from the Sun Belt beat Nebraska last year. But that was a good Sun Belt team. This is a bad one. Nebraska is favored by 36, or 5 touchdowns and a point, which at first glance I thought was a bit generous, but when you think about the fact that 56-14 covers that spread, I actually think that's a very manageable score to hit. Much like what the Akron game was supposed to be, this game will be a good test to see what Nebraska is truly capable of, and whether or not we need to pull the Kool Aid IV out and come back down to earth a little bit.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. USA D: Advantage Nebraska. Too Fast Too Furious. Just focus on staying healthy.

Nebraska D vs. USA O: Advantage Nebraska. Not saying Nebraska's defense is going to be overwhelming, more of the fact that South Alabama's strong suit is their run game, which well, Nebraska usually covers pretty well.

Special Teams: Spielman and Robinson headline the return game and I got excited reading and typing that.

The Prediction:

Much like any good first game of the season, this is a good warmup to see what works and what doesn't. The highlight will definitely be the offense, but all eyes will be on the defense to see what they will be working with throughout the year. It's a manageable schedule, they just need to take it one game at a time.

Nebraska 52, South Alabama 10

Finishing Strong (Vs. Illinois)

Recap:

That was a good, sound, almost clean game. A 5 point loss on the road against Ohio State is nothing to shy away from, however it should've been much worse. Ohio State was actually playing piss poor with their game plan. They wanted to use Nebraska as a "warm up" team, to prove they can run the ball with their below-average running offense against Nebraska's above-average running defense. And I mean, I don't know, it kind of worked? However what they should've done, is expose Nebraska's piss poor pass defense with their own really good passing offense. They threw the ball 32 times, opting to run it the other 40 times, which when compared to all of Ohio State's more competitive games, does lean a bit run heavy as we usually see Ohio State be more pass heavy. A little more exposure on Nebraska's secondary and this game wouldn't have been close.

But it wasn't. Nebraska came out firing and I LOVED the play call to go for the onside kick. Urban Meyer was on the verge of having an aneurysm on the sideline all day, can you just imagine if Nebraska was able to go up 14-0 right away? But things didn't turn out that way but fortunately, Ohio State played like crap. All in all, Nebraska could have won that game yes, but at the same time they were very fortunate to only lose by 5. All in all, Nebraska actually didn't play that bad, Ohio State just played down to Nebraska's level.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Tomorrow however is the Illinois game and this will be the game where we get to see everything come together for Nebraska. Posting 55 against Minnesota, almost beating Ohio State on the road, this will be a slaughter that I'll enjoy watching. Illinois has been on the downswing as of late, and although they just got done trouncing Minnesota, they're still outclassed here, despite the sub-par season Nebraska is having. Illinois truly hasn't been that spectacular this year, winning the games they're supposed to and just getting murdered everywhere else. If there is a shred of hope is that they do have a mediocre offense that could put up a couple numbers against a not-so-sharp Nebraska defense. But overall, this one should be the game that Nebraska uses to make their final statement. The rest of the schedule is winnable based off how the Big Ten has been playing this year.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Illinois D: Advantage Nebraska. It's all finally coming together for the offense, and against a very soft Illinois D, they should have no trouble putting up 50+

Nebraska D vs. Illinois O: Edge Nebraska. Again, Nebraska's defense is yet to be desired, mixed with an Illinois offense that could pull a punch or two, maybe we see some early back and forth, but nothing to be threatened.

Special Teams: Needs improving.

Prediction: After Illinois, Nebraska will be hosting a withering Michigan State team and close the season at a wtf Iowa. Both of those remaining games are very winnable, and it all starts against Illinois. The bigger the statement Nebraska makes on the scoreboard, the better I feel about taking the next two games and salvaging a 5-win season, as my model currently predicts Nebraska is on pace for.

Nebraska 59, Illinois 20

(source: The Champaign Room)



The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

The model went 44-18 (70.97%) across all FBS games last week, bringing the season total to 204-83 (71.08%). And holy shit Nebraska is ranked ahead of it's opponent for the first time all year:

1) Alabama (-)
2) Clemson (-)
3) Utah State (-)
4) Fresno State (+1)
5) Central Florida (-1)
6) Michigan (+6)
7) Appalachian State (-)
8) Oklahoma (-2)
9) UAB (+7)
10) Georgia (-1)
11) Cincinnati (+4)
12) North Texas (-2)
13) West Virginia (-5)
14) Ohio State (-1)
15) Houston (-4)
16) Mississippi State (New)
17) Syracuse (+2)
18) Ohio (New)
19) Washington State (+2)
20) Boise State (-2)
21) Notre Dame (+1)
22) Miami (-2)
23) Boston College (+1)
24) Penn State (-10)
25) Texas Tech (New)
...
97) Nebraska (-7)
...
103) Illinois
...
126) Rutgers (+1)
127) Rice (+1)
128) Louisville (New)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConn (-)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the conference championships:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
B1G: Michigan vs. Iowa (East vs. West. Iowa is the highest Big Ten West team at #27)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
Pac-12: Washington State vs. Utah (North vs. South. Utah is the highest Pac-12 South team at #26)
Best G5 Team: Utah State

Over(rated)Watch:

#8 Washington State - Still Being Watched. I'm just not at all enthused by the status of the Pac-12 this year. Beating California 19-13 isn't exactly the kind of score I like to see my Top 10 teams winning by. They play Colorado this week.

#10 Ohio State - Being Watched. You don't just win by 5 at home against Nebraska when you're coming off a loss to Purdue. The only saving grace for Ohio State's season (barring another loss) is to beat Michigan, which is a task that gets harder to do every week. They play Michigan State in what could be a quiet upset alert game.

#11 Kentucky - Overrated. They only went down two spots after getting throttled by Georgia? How good is the SEC really outside of Alabama anyway? They play Tennessee which should help their numbers a bit.

#13 Syracuse - Being Watched. Syracuse has come in with a quiet season so far, and unfortunately, being quiet at #13 is how you end up on this list. They play Louisville in their stat booster game of the season.

#14 North Carolina State - Being Watched. Similarly to Syracuse, just not enough noise to warrant a solid Top 15 ranking. There are other G5 teams that I would take over these guys. They are playing Wake Forest as of the writing of this blog, and in true overrated fashion, they lost lol.

#16 Mississippi State - Overrated. See last week. They're getting crushed by Alabama this week.

#18 Michigan State - Overrated. I just haven't seen them be as good as they usually are. Whether that's current quarterback play, or something else going on, Michigan State just isn't that good this year. That being said, I'm giving them the chance to upset Ohio State this week.

#19 Texas - Overrated. Lol. They did give West Virginia a run for their money in true Big 12 fashion, but let's see how they handle a rising Texas Tech team.

#22 Iowa State - Uhm What? See last week. They play Baylor this week.

No one won their way off this list from last week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #21 Iowa, NR Texas A&M

Prediction Center:

A perfect 5-0 week AND hitting that upset alert, brings the records to 25-9 and 3-5 respectively.

#10 Ohio State @ #18 Michigan State - Ohio State 34, Michigan State 30

I'm giving Michigan State a fighting chance here, especially if Ohio State plays the way it has the last two games. However, that still doesn't mean Michigan State is any good, and this is still a talent loaded Ohio State. I expect this more to be a bounce back game than a close one, hopefully.

#16 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama - Alabama 59, Mississippi State 17

Why.

#24 Auburn @ #5 Georgia - Georgia 38, Auburn 17

Auburn hasn't been great, Georgia has been good, they're playing in Georgia, you do the math.

#2 Clemson @ #17 Boston College - Clemson 55, Boston College 35

Boston College is another one of those teams that has had a quiet season. With the long shot, but still possible, chance that this game could make or break the ACC Atlantic, Boston College has a dog in this fight. Meanwhile if Clemson wins, then they clinch the division, so they have everything to fight for as well, and ever since the QB switch, Clemson has been on all cylinders.

Upset Alert: Northwestern @ #21 Iowa - I mean, by rank and by Vegas, this is an upset as Iowa is somehow favored by 11. Northwestern has been playing some very good football, including an almost win against Notre Dame last week. Iowa in the meanwhile, kinda lack luster. However, in a game for Big Ten West complications, everything will be placed on the line here.

Buckeyeing Eligibility (Vs. Ohio State)

Recap:

I mean the game against Bethune-Cookman was basically a gimme. It was unfortunate however to watch that there are still some secondary exposure issues with Nebraska's first string that can still get exposed by a good team...

The Big Red Breakdown:

...That Ohio State will gladly expose. If there's any solace I can take going into this game, it is that Ohio State has not looked that sharp all year long. "But they're 7-1!" Yes, and that one loss came embarrassingly against a Purdue team that exposed their issues. "But Nebraska also sucks!" Also true! But this game has the makings of a shootout, as long as we don't see pissed off, Urban Meyer off a bye week. Per usual, Ohio State has play makers on offense that will rip to shreds whatever is left of the Nebraska defense, and will probably not punt for the third straight game in a row against Nebraska. The good news is, Nebraska's offense has come together and can put a nice dent into Ohio State's faded defense. The question this ultimately becomes is "Can Nebraska keep up?"

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Ohio State D: Edge Nebraska. While not completely useless, this isn't the same dominant Ohio State D we're used to seeing in the Big Ten. The offense as a whole should be effective, but maximum damage can be done against an unusually weak Ohio State secondary.

Nebraska D vs. Ohio State O: Advantage Ohio State. If Nebraska had some issues stopping Bethune-Cookman for yards, yikes.

Special Teams: Nebraska's kicker still isn't great, but Ohio State might be short their starter too. Could this come down to field goal kicking?

Prediction: Nebraska is playing for their last life of bowl eligibility here, and it would be absolutely amazing for a former 0-6 team to go into Columbus and kick Ohio State while they're down, but I don't see it happening. Nebraska is off of a half bye whereas Ohio State is off an actual bye, and Ohio State still outclasses Nebraska by a mile in the talent department. I expect a shootout, and if Nebraska can force a punt or two, then maybe, just maybe, they can keep it close enough to where they duke it out at the end.

Ohio State 63, Nebraska 45

The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Due to no post last week, the change in rankings still reflect what would've been posted, so you guys can do the math. Of course Alabama is still #1. I forgot to keep track of the model's record for what would've been last week's post, oops. BUT, this last week, the model went 40-16 (71.43%) across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 160-65 (71.11%). We seem to be getting stuck at this 70% accuracy for short term. We'll have to see how the end of  year rankings look to be.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Clemson (+1)
3) Utah State (+3)
4) Central Florida (-)
5) Fresno State (-)
6) Oklahoma (+1)
7) Appalachian State (-5)
8) West Virginia (+12)
9) Georgia (-1)
10) North Texas (+3)
11) Houston (-2)
12) Michigan (-1)
13) Ohio State (+2)
14) Penn State (-4)
15) Cincinnati (-3)
16) UAB (+1)
17) LSU (+6)
18) Boise State (+6)
19) Syracuse (+3)
20) Miami (-6)
21) Washington State (-2)
22) Notre Dame (New)
23) Utah (New)
24) Boston College (New)
25) Iowa (-4)
...
90) Nebraska (+19)
...
126) New Mexico State (-)
127) Rutgers (New)
128) Rice (-)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConnn (-)

If these rankings were reflective of conference championships, here's what they would be:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
B1G: Michigan vs. Iowa (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington State vs. Utah (North vs. South)
Best G5 Team: Utah State

Over(rated)Watch:

I'm just going to redo the list at this point. Rankings now reflect the CFP Committee

#8 Washington State - Being Watched. I mean, the Pac-12 does need a representative, it's just a shame that their entire conference is ass and beating themselves up this year, hurting their playoff chances. They play California this week

#9 Kentucky - Being Watched Closely. Top 15 team for sure, but let's see how they fare against Georgia before we can say Kentucky is a football school now.

#16 Iowa - Being Watched. Betting that the reason they're here is that they took Penn State to the wire on the road. Well what if I told you Penn State wasn't super special? They also still lost to a mediocre Wisconsin team. They play Purdue this week in hopes of being another team on the embarrassment list.

#17 Texas - Overrated. Lol. They do play West Virginia in what could be a Big XII momentum swinger this week.

#18 Mississippi State - Overrated. There are a lot of good G5 teams that should be ranked ahead of Miss State. They play Louisiana Tech this week.

#20 Texas A&M - Overrated. There are a lot of good G5 teams that should be ranked ahead of Texas A&M. They play Auburn this week.

#24 Iowa State - Uhm What? A 4-3 team? Ok. Again. Probably should be deserving of a G5 team, but whatever.

Prediction Center:

We went 4-1 two weeks ago, and since there were no other predictions made last week, we are sitting at 20-9 on the season. 2-5 for Upset Alerts.

#6 Georgia @ #9 Kentucky - Georgia 24, Kentucky 17

Kentucky has had a spectacular season so far going 7-1, however their best win was against Florida, and they've sort of stumbled down the stretch lately. Georgia has been on their rockers too lately, and with these two defenses, expect a slugfest, but Georgia to come out on top.

#13 West Virginia @ #17 Texas - West Virginia 45, Texas 35

It hurts me to admit, but Texas hasn't been super terrible this year, but they're about to get ousted from the Big XII conference race.

#14 Penn State @ #5 Michigan - Michigan 34, Penn State 17

Penn State has unfortunately fallen off the ladder this season, and Michigan has been on the upswing ever since they figured out how to play offense. Look for Michigan to be putting away the Big Ten East here.

#1 Alabama @ #3 LSU - Alabama 38, LSU 20

Alabama's first test of the season, and it still isn't even that big of one. Being in Baton Rouge will matter, but Alabama is still miles above everyone else this year, including this very confusing LSU team.

Upset Alert: #15 Utah @ Arizona State - Since I can't pick Nebraska, and Purdue is favored by Vegas, we'll go with the clusterfuck that is the Pac-12 this week. Utah does seem to be the most complete team in the South, but Arizona State has been on to something this year in playing when it counts. Especially at home.

Golden Opportunity (Vs. Minnesota)

Recap:

Existence is pain. I hate being right, but that was the very definition of "Nebraska is so close". At the same time, someone needs to get Lamar Jackson and Antonio Reed off the field, and that was hands down one of Aaron Williams' worst games ever. That entire secondary just looked more lost than usual and Northwestern made them pay for it big time. I also don't care of he's just a freshman, but I don't think I've seen a worse kicker at Nebraska. Frost changed the punting, so I think it's time for a change at kicker as well. Got nothing to lose at this point right?

The Big Red Breakdown:

The bright side (if there really is one) is that Nebraska is still bowl eligible. Yeah they would need to win out, including a miracle upset against Ohio State, but we still need to look at every positive outlook as we can here right? Is it feasible? No, but a man can dream. Unfortunately, even with the Ohio State loss, 5-7 will most likely not get Nebraska into a bowl as their Academic Progress Ranking is a bit down the list again this year. Of course again, we'd need to be at that 5-7 point for that conversation to be relevant, but again, positivity.

But first things first is Minnesota. A team that gave Ohio State a scare last week, which gives me hope that Nebraska can at the very least do the same. Minnesota comes in with a terrible offense but a great defense. And the last time I said that, Minnesota hung 54 on them. But again, if Nebraska can ride the feeling of almost winning last week and turn it into positives, then they can win this game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Minnesota D: Edge Nebraska. Despite having a fairly stellar defense in Minnesota, Nebraska is finally clicking on offense. The last thing that needs to get resolved is the offensive line in terms of giving Martinez some better protection.

Nebraska D vs. Minnesota O: Edge Nebraska. Minnesota doesn't bring a lot to the table on offense, however this is the Nebraska defense we are still talking about here, mistakes will be made.

Special Teams: Punting team got their fix, lets give the field goal kickers a change up now. Seriously. If you miss an extra point and a field goal, and then in overtime the coach decides that they have a better chance of getting points going for it on 4th and 1 instead of having you attempt a 35 some yarder field goal? That has to light a fire under your ass to get better. To put the cherry on top of that, if you got benched in the next game because of that, that would absolutely put a fire under your ass to get better at kicking. Sheesh.

Prediction: The time is now. No more mistakes. No more penalties. Ok maybe less penalties at least. Nebraska needs to win this game. I hate to say it that I'm calling Minnesota a "must win game", but how staggering would that be if we have to wait till next week against an FCS foe for Nebraska's first win? And even then what if they fuck that one up? If there is some divine intervention and Minnesota finds an offense and this turns into a shootout, I still like Nebraska's odds here.

Nebraska 28, Minnesota 20

(source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

The model went 39-16 (70.91%) last week across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 120-49 (71.01%)

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (-)
3) Central Florida (-)
4) Utah State (+3)
5) Ohio State (+1)
6) Clemson (+2)
7) Fresno State (+2)
8) Cincinnati (+2)
9) Penn State (-4)
10) Michigan (+5)
11) North Texas (-)
12) Georgia (-8)
13) Houston (+4)
14) Oklahoma (+4)
15) UAB (New)
16) Oregon (-2)
17) Miami (-5)
18) Washington State (+1)
19) Mississippi State (+3)
20) Syracuse (+3)
21) Memphis (-5)
22) Florida (-2)
23) West Virginia (-10)
24) North Carolina State (New)
25) Iowa (New, gross)
...
75) Minnesota
...
122) Nebraska (+1)
...
126) New Mexico State (New)
127) Bowling Green (+2)
128) Rice (New)
129) Rutgers (-3)
130) UConn (-)

If these rankings were reflective of what the championships would be, here's how they would look:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Iowa (East vs. West)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big 12: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Colorado (North vs. South) <-- First time in blog history that a division was not represented in the Top 25. Colorado dropped from 21st to 29th with their loss to USC. Utah is next closest at 36th.

Best G5 Team: Appalachian State

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Being Watched Closely. Can't deny that beating Georgia is impressive. Can deny that the SEC is actually good this year. They play Mississippi State this week

#6 Michigan - Overrated. Michigan is only here because they're a one loss team and the AP voters see that and think they're all of a sudden good. They play Michigan State this week

#7 Texas - Overrated AF. Texas is only here because they're a one loss team and the AP voters see that and think they're all of a sudden good. Sadly they are on a bye this week.

#24 Michigan State - Being Watched. I'm sorry but there are better teams out there that deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State. Like, oh I don't know, how about the two G5 teams that almost beat the struggling Big Ten powerhouses this year? (Utah State and Appalachian State). They play Michigan this week

No teams proved their worth this week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #15 Washington

Hot Take Central:

-Nebraska is the last P5 winless team standing. Who would've thought.

-West Virginia and Colorado took a hit for their conference chances, and Georgia re-opened the door for Kentucky

-RIP SEC

-Colorado's loss has the Big Ten West shook as according to my model, they have taken over as the worst division in football. Although I'm sure the Big Ten won't be outdone this week!

Prediction Center:

3-1 last week puts us at 16-8 for the season. We fall to 2-4 on the Upset Alert as we came oh so close on converting another one.

#6 Michigan @ #24 Michigan State - Not State 27, State 14

I'm convinced the AP ranked Michigan State just so they could call this a ranked v ranked matchup for Michigan's sake. Conspiracy I say! Michigan's defense will get it done

#16 NC State @ #3 Clemson - Clemson 34, NC State 30

I think NC State is legit this year and this will be a good game, however the home field advantage will tilt this in Clemson's favor as I think they're also getting it together with Lawrence under center.

#22 Mississippi State @ #5 LSU - LSU 34, MSST 20

The SEC is weird as always, but we'll be taking LSU at home thank you very much

#12 Oregon @ #25 Washington State - Oregon 41, Washington St 34

Classic Pac-12 shootout that may decide the fate of the Pac-12 North as both teams still have been tagged with a conference loss. I just don't think Wazzu is as good as they were last year

Upset Alert: Colorado @ #15 Washington - Not sure how much of a stretch you want to call this one an upset, but I think Colorado puts the dagger in Washington's overrated season. Can't deny that the Buffs have showed up this year. Also can't deny that if Nebraska won, their season would look drastically different.

A Sense of Direction (Vs. Northwestern)

Recap:

I'll be honest, I was at a family dinner and we turned it off in favor of the volleyball game about halfway into the third quarter. SO, this recap will be short. But hey, we beat the spread! And honestly that's a pretty dang good sign on the road against Wisconsin. They lost by 17 but it felt like they were within 10. There were still some flashes of brilliance mixed in with the penalties and missed tackles that we know and love. Frost is still turning over the roster as people are transferring out, and bad Riley players are getting benched, the latest of which is Lightbourn getting benched for Armstrong. Honestly the jokes write themselves there that they have another Armstrong on the team and also ironic that he is the punter.

The Big Red Breakdown:

This week Nebraska travels to North Lincoln, Illinois to play Northwestern. This is the best I've felt about a Nebraska game since Colorado. I think they get this. Northwestern has played very consistent ball this year, but per usual, nothing super flashy to be scared of. Yes they beat Purdue and Michigan State and almost picked off Michigan, but I still think the Big Ten is on a very down year where just about anyone can beat anyone, mostly. I don't think any of those results are flukes, and yes I'm including their loss to Akron here as well. Northwestern has historically played "good enough" football to get their job done. And this is why I think Nebraska is poised to do something about it. They have begun to take form of the team that they were supposed to be the last two weeks. Albeit we're still forming that pool of liquid that will soon solidify into what it would be, but give it time.

While there might not be anything special about Northwestern, there also isn't too much going on for Nebraska either. Still one of the worst in committing penalties, still shoddy defense, and still young on offense and mistake prone. Which is the counterpoint as to why Nebraska will continue to be win-less. Northwestern DOES have a good history on pouncing on mistakes, and this game isn't too far from looking like the Colorado game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Northwestern D: Edge Nebraska. I think everything finally comes back together for the offense as Northwestern doesn't exactly pose a threat on defense other than being able to take advantage of mistakes.

Nebraska D vs. Northwestern O: Edge Northwestern. Northwestern did lose their starting running back a few weeks ago and they don't have anyone else above 100 rushing yards on the season...so they'll gladly look to the air against a still questionable secondary in Nebraska. However, if they do come together on the ground, expect Nebraska to miss a tackle to give one of the new Northwestern backs their 100th yard.

Special Teams: This is where I'm most concerned. Nebraska has looked like ass all year on special teams. Hopefully a shake up in punters does the trick, but that still leaves a Swiss cheese punt coverage squad going up against a usually good Northwestern return team.

Prediction: Nebraska is so close. This game will be tightly contested until Nebraska commits a game winning penalty with a few minutes to spare. But again, this is the best I've felt about getting a win this season, so I really really hope that this is the case.

Northwestern 30, Nebraska 28

(source: College Football News)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Last week the model went 37-19 (66.07%) across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 81-33 (71.05%). We're starting to see a little bit of stability across the rankings, however we're still seeing total beat downs being rewarded (see Clemson, Memphis)

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (-)
3) Central Florida (-)
4) Georgia (+1)
5) Penn State (+1)
6) Ohio State (-2)
7) Utah State (+2)
8) Clemson (+15)
9) Fresno State (-1)
10) Cincinnati (+1)
11) North Texas (-1)
12) Miami (-5)
13) West Virginia (-)
14) Oregon (+1)
15) Michigan (+1)
16) Memphis (New)
17) Houston (+2)
18) Oklahoma (-6)
19) Washington State (New)
20) Florida (-)
21) Colorado (-4)
22) Mississippi State (New)
23) Syracuse (-9)
24) Texas Tech (New)
25) Wisconsin (New)
...
84) Northwestern
...
123) Nebraska (-)
...
126) Rutgers (-)
127) Louisiana-Monroe (New)
128) South Alabama (New)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConn (-)

Since we're just about at the halfway point of the season, if these rankings were reflective of conference championships; this is how they would look:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big 12: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Colorado (North vs. South)
Best G5 Team: Appalachian State

Over(rated)Watch:

#7 Washington - Overrated. I think after all of the struggles Washington has had this year, you don't just win by one touchdown against UCLA and be a confident Top 10 team. Washington is riding the coattails of already being ranked highly. It's only a matter of time before the AP realizes that losing to Auburn is a bad look. They travel to Oregon where they will either be exposed or have their season saved.

#9 Texas - Overrated. Texas is not back and will never be back. They play Baylor where they will probably remember that they are Texas.

#12 Michigan - Being Watched. So they might have figured out their offense finally, but I'll still hold reservations. They play Wisconsin in another Big Ten classic overrated matchup.

No teams proved their worth last week, but RIP Kentucky.
Teams that have been taken care of and are low-key being watched: #13 LSU, #21 Auburn

Hot Take Central:

-Nebraska and UCLA still remain the only win-less Power 5 teams in the nation. I think one of these two will win, but still a high likely-hood that both lose.

-Early contenders for first time conference winners in the last 10 years: NC State, West Virginia, Colorado, and Kentucky

-The epic 3 SEC team fan theory got blown up because 1) LSU lost, 2) I failed to realize that LSU plays Georgia this week and that will also throw a wrench into the plans.

-The Pac-12 South is giving the Big Ten West a run for the "worst division" award

Prediction Center:

A meh 2-2 week puts us at 13-7 on the year. But baby we got that Upset Alert to move up to 2-3 on those bold calls (But it was Auburn on the road so do we really call it an upset?)

#2 Georgia @ #13 LSU - Georgia 31, LSU 20

Well someone forgot that this was a matchup this year. If LSU wants to save its season, it needs to show up here. Meanwhile, a Georgia loss and suddenly Kentucky is perking up to steal the division.

#7 Washington @ #17 Oregon - Oregon 34, Washington 24

Another highly esteemed defense rolling into Eugene. And honestly, Oregon looked poise to beat Stanford, and probably should have. But they'll get their redemption shot as they look to put Washington in its place and open up the Pac-12 North race.

#15 Wisconsin @ #12 Michigan - Michigan 23, Wisconsin 17

That Michigan defense will be way too much for Hornibrook, giving their meh offense good field position where they don't have to do much. They can only ride Jonathan Taylor for so long.

Upset Alert: Baylor @ #9 Texas. Baylor hasn't been super spectacular so I don't 100% like this call, but cmon, its Texas. They got lucky against a poor Oklahoma defense, and while Baylor can't be much better, we can also say that Texas was motivated in a "rivalry" game.

Grate Expectations (Vs. Wisconsin)

Recap:

This was one of those games where looking at the score hurts, but watching it wasn't terrible. Yes, a loss to Purdue is a loss to Purdue, but at this point in the season, Nebraska might as well embrace the suck and just randomly beat Ohio State because why the fuck not. Nothing really stood out positively, run game was solid, but overall nothing flashy. And the only major sucky thing this week was the continuation of piss poor tackling and the penalties. My god the penalties. I read a great stat that Nebraska was one of the best in getting teams into 3rd and forever situations, but then is also the worst at getting out of said 3rd and forever situations, whether its missing a tackle for a big play, or an automatic first down penalty.

That needs to stop. And Frost knows it too. His post game presser after Purdue was great. He knows this team is bad and he's tired of the bullshit too. That's why we're finally seeing players that were starting under Riley getting benched, or transferred. Are they good players? Skill wise perhaps, but clearly we haven't seen that product on the field. What we are seeing is exactly how Frost put it, a lack of discipline. Whether that was ingrained by Riley, or just being resistant to the new coaching changes, it needs to stop. And I think the Purdue game was a great turning point in seeing some of that finally mesh together. If only they could turn that into a win.

The Big Red Breakdown:

And sadly, trying to find that win will be another fever dream this week as Nebraska travels to cheese land to play the most overrated-but-still-somewhat-good Wisconsin. Every. Single. Year. Since the Big Ten Championship Game, I've wanted Nebraska to beat Wisconsin's ass so badly because of how overrated they are and a team like that shouldn't be losing to Nebraska (when they were at least a respectable 9-win team). And every year that never happens. Obviously, deep deep down, I want that to hold true, but this year I know it's going to be a bloodbath. Yay. Any silver linings? Perhaps. If the defense wakes up and provides some pressure, juuuuuust maybe we can get around the fact that Jonathan Taylor will run for another rushing record. And the offense could be clicking. This is still a Wisconsin defense, but probably not one of the better defenses they've fielded. The Michigan defense should still be the toughest defense Nebraska plays this year, and the offense might have finally turned a page. Again, it was only against Purdue, but the quicker Nebraska can get rid of the toxic penalties, maybe, just maybe, they can beat the 17-point spread.

Nebraska O vs. Wisconsin D: Edge Wisconsin. Expect some breakthroughs here and there, but I still don't foresee that Nebraska will be firing on all cylinders for no more than a few touchdown drives against this modest defense.

Nebraska D vs. Wisconsin O: Edge Wisconsin. The good news is that Hornibrook still sucks. The bad news is, Wisconsin finally realized this and is going mostly run heavy this year. If Nebraska stuffs the run and doesn't get a penalty for it, then maybe there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

Special Teams: Well. That's one way to not put Lindsey back to return punts...RIP. But look what happens when JD does it!

Prediction: Things are coming together at Nebraska very slowly. A lot of people are still citing that if the Akron game was played this year, Nebraska would be looking at 4-1 because they would have ironed out all of their kinks against Akron. At the same time, we've been saying that for weeks and Nebraska continues to make those same mistakes. I personally think the Purdue game was a turning point, and Wisconsin will be a great test to see if the message was received or not. Now excuse me while I go watch Kenny Bell's block for the rest of the night.

Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 17

(source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Based off of the rankings, the model went 44-14 last week across all FBS games.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (+4)
3) Central Florida (+2)
4) Ohio State (-2)
5) Georgia (+2)
6) Penn State (-3)
7) Miami (+8)
8) Fresno State (+2)
9) Utah State (+3)
10) North Texas (-6)
11) Cincinnati (+13)
12) Oklahoma (+7)
13) West Virginia (-4)
14) Syracuse (-6)
15) Oregon (+8)
16) Michigan (-5)
17) Colorado (+3)
18) Boise State (+4)
19) Houston (New)
20) Florida (-4)
21) Auburn (+4)
22) Oklahoma State (New)
23) Clemson (-5)
24) Kentucky (New)
25) LSU (New)
...
32) Wisconsin
...
123) Nebraska (-1)
...
126) Rutgers (+2)
127) UCLA (New)
128) New Mexico State (+1)
129) Bowling Green (New)
130) UConn (-)

And yes, don't ask how a 1 win Rutgers is still behind a winless Nebraska. Clearly we're looking at potential and I'd still take Nebraska over Rutgers 10 times out of 10. I'm also not going to sit here and pretend that App St almost beat Penn State earlier this year.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Back to Being Watched. I think there's still a great shot that 3 SEC teams will make the playoff, and LSU has to be one of the 3 for the play to work. I still haven't 100% seen that they are the real deal however. They play Florida in what should be a manageable game.

#8 Auburn - Still Being Watched. They kept it close against Southern Miss, what? They play Mississippi State in what could be an upset alert game.

#10 Washington - Still Being Watched. There are literally no reads on this team but they might just wind up winning the Pac-12 because of it. Nothing flashy, but nothing stupid. They play UCLA tomorrow, thankfully Nebraska will still not be alone as a winless team.

Teams that have proven their worth: #6 Notre Dame, #13 Kentucky
Teams that have been exposed and are low key being watched: #14 Stanford

Hot Take Central (Successful Conversions: 1. Cold Takes: 1):

-Nebraska and UCLA remain the only winless Power 5 teams and it'll probably stay that way next week.

-Still waiting on the fake from Nebraska.

-Still early for conference championship stuff, but things could get interesting

-We are on a crash course for 3 SEC teams into the playoffs because Georgia and Alabama don't play each other in the regular season. Which means, that if the loser of Bama/LSU remains at one loss, and Georgia and the winner remain undefeated going into the championship game, then you have an easy undefeated SEC champ, and two 1-loss SEC teams. Good luck trying to convince them otherwise.

-Wisconsin is the best team in probably one of the weakest conferences in the nation wtf

Prediction Center:

A second consecutive undefeated week at 6-0 gets us back to what we're used to seeing here at 11-5. So close to hitting the upset alert last week, but we'll drop to 1-3 there.

#19 Texas vs. #7 Oklahoma - Oklahoma 45, Texas 31

Texas is not back and never will be back. But somehow this game brings out the best in them. Football is whack yo.

#5 LSU @ #22 Florida - LSU 24, Florida 10

Now would be a great game to show that you're not a pushover LSU. A good result against this great defense and I'll stop calling you overrated.

#6 Notre Dame @ #24 Virginia Tech - Notre Dame 31, VT 20

Funny enough, both teams are using their second QB of the year, one happens to actually be pretty good while the other is the backup for a reason. I'll let you figure whos who.

Upset Alert: #8 Auburn @ Mississippi State - Miss St has shown flashes of confidence whereas we're still trying to figure out Auburn. Add in a home game with cowbells and you got yourself a recipe for an upset.

Lost & Found (Vs. Purdue)

Recap:

As much as I don't want to recap this game, I think it is important that we do. That was easily the most complete game Michigan has ever played in their lives, and easily the most incomplete game Nebraska has ever played. Scott Frost did say it would get worse before it got better, so if this is rock bottom, I'm definitely looking forward to the Ohio State game. I'm also really glad that he kept most of the starters in there for some time. At this point in the program, I think it is important to show these young players what it is like to get their asses brutally handed to. They need some kind of fire the way this season is going. I'm also sure this was a good indicator of who's here for the long haul or not. We all knew the offense wasn't going to do much, but what the actual fuck happened on defense? I can only recall one three-and-out, and that was immediately followed by the muffed punt. Missed tackles left and right, and oh yeah, the really shitty O-Line of Michigan looked like the Great Wall. Clearly it is time to re-asses this team, they look lost. I'm starting to think this team would've lost to Akron.

The Big Red Breakdown:

And what is lost in Nebraska, may or may not have been found in Purdue. A team that in the past couple seasons has been trying to put it back together, but is always missing that one vital piece. Most of the time, this year included, its been a lack of defense for Purdue. But we can't ignore that this Purdue team is coming in at 1-3, with all 3 of those losses being really close, and that one win coming against a, so far, decent Boston College team, at home. But at the same time, one of those losses was to Eastern Michigan, yikes. Purdue's signature is their offense and what better time to face a high-octane offense than the game after a defense went missing, am I right? If Michigan was the worst to come, then I think Nebraska can bring it together at home against Purdue.

Of course every time I've said they're going to bounce back, they don't. But whatever. Positivity is one of my Gallup Strengths.

Nebraska O vs. Purdue D: Advantage Nebraska. A healthy Martinez should bring this offense back to life a week after being decimated by Michigan's defense, especially against a weak Purdue front.

Nebraska D vs. Purdue O: Advantage Purdue. If anyone can find the defense that played against Colorado, please send them to Memorial Stadium by Saturday kthx.

Special Teams: Christ. The Lindsey Experience needed to have stopped halfway against Colorado yet here we are. Please let Spielman return.

Prediction: We got ourselves a shootout here folks! I really want to give a shred of dignity to Nebraska's defense to be able to hold their ground better than Purdue's, especially at home, but boy last week makes that hard to do. And let's not forget that as decently seeming the offense looks, they still make a lot of mistakes/turnovers. I think this is the game to turn it around, I really do. Which is why I hate that the spread is 3.5 in favor of Purdue, I can't hate that. Damn you Vegas!

Purdue 41, Nebraska 38

(source: Detroit Free Press)

This is one of those photos that doesn't necessarily match the tone of this post, but I can't help to not laugh at whatever Lightbourn is doing in the background.

The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

This year is going to be a delightful year of upsets won't it? Also totally forgot to keep track of the model's record last week oops. This week for sure.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Ohio State (+3)
3) Penn State (+5)
4) North Texas (+5)
5) Central Florida (-2)
6) Appalachian State (New)
7) Georgia (-3)
8) Syracuse (+5)
9) West Virginia (+6)
10) Fresno State (+7)
11) Michigan (New)
12) Utah State (-6)
13) Mississippi State (-11)
14) Memphis (+2)
15) Miami (+4)
16) Florida (+8)
17) Texas Tech (+5)
18) Clemson (+7)
19) Oklahoma (-1)
20) Colorado (New)
21) Southern Mississippi (+2)
22) Boise State (New)
23) Oregon (-13)
24) Cincinnati (-3)
25) Auburn (New)
...
77) Purdue
...
122) Nebraska (-23)
...
126) UTEP (-)
127) Georgia State (New)
128) Rutgers (New)
129) New Mexico State (+1)
130) UConn (-2)

Yep. Nebraska is four spots away from the Bottom 5. Current win projection is at 2 now.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Overrated. Everything about them from last week still stands, adding on to the fact they didn't really blow the socks off of Louisiana Tech. They play Ole Miss this week and they better put up Alabama like numbers on them too.

#7 Stanford - Overrated. Struggled against a not super impressive Oregon on the road. Got EXTREMELY LUCKY to pull off the win, despite me saying they would last week. They battle Notre Dame in this week's Battle of the Overrateds.

#8 Notre Dame - Back to Being Watched. After a week of being overrated, they actually made some changes for the better in a convincing win at Wake Forest. Hooray! As mentioned above, they play Stanford this week. Will one win? Or will both come out of the game looking like complete dog shit?

#10 Auburn - Back to Being Watched. Again, very mixed feelings about this team. They play Southern Miss in a game they should not be overlooking.

#11 Washington - Still Being Watched. Another team I have mixed feelings about. They beat Arizona State by a touchdown, so I'm not sure if that counts as getting a good win, or struggling. They get BYU this week in what should be an interesting matchup.

#17 Kentucky - Being Watched. Slow down there buddy. Kentucky has looked impressive between last year and their 4-0 start this year, but as always, let's keep an eye on an SEC team, shall we? They play South Carolina in what should be a good test for them.

No teams have been removed from this list.

Hot Take Central: (Successful conversions: 1)

-Defenses definitely don't exist anymore, RIP the Heisman dream. I'll put this hot take away and see if it comes to fruition later

-There are two Power 5 teams left that are winless, Nebraska because they suck, and UCLA because they were on a bye week last week.

-At this point I don't trust Nebraska's special teams to execute a fake punt/FG. But again, that is exactly what Frost wants you to think.

-Let's get another conference game in before we start wheeling and dealing on potential champions.

-I'm combining my two playoff hot takes as they're starting to blend together. I would also like to point out that we may very well see 3 SEC teams in the playoff this year because Georgia does not play LSU or Alabama. God help us all.

-Wisconsin not winning the Big Ten West looked good until they beat Iowa. But its only one game, anything can still happen.

Prediction Center:

A successful 3-0 week bounces us back to 5-5. However we are 1-2 on Upset Alerts. Got a slew of games this week:

#12 West Virginia @ #25 Texas Tech - West Virginia 45, Texas Tech 38:

Classic Big 12 shootout. Texas Tech is coming together, but they're still just a bit outside of that next tier in the conference.

#4 Ohio State @ #9 Penn State - Ohio State 31, Penn State 27:

Game of the week right here and easily will dictate the Big Ten East. Penn State has a shot, but Urban is angry for being lambasted on national television for being a liar.

#7 Stanford @ #8 Notre Dame - Notre Dame 24, Stanford 16:

Perfect timing for Notre Dame to find an offense against a really good defense. Too bad the same can't be said about Stanford. I will give the Stanford QB credit for being really clutch. So if the score is within a touchdown, maybe Stanford has the edge.

#20 BYU @ #11 Washington - Washington 31, BYU 27:

Another matchup that I didn't know I wanted until I looked it up and found out it was a thing. BYU always plays interesting, and with the Wisconsin upset in their mind, they can look to do it again against a meh Washington team. Good thing Washington actually has a decent QB.

#19 Oregon @ #24 California - Oregon 41, California 35:

Classic Pac-12 shootout. Oregon did look better than expected against Stanford, let's see what California can bring to the table this week.

Upset Alert: Syracuse @ #3 Clemson - Honestly there weren't really a lot of good candidates this week, primarily because 10 of the Top 25 are playing each other this week, but Syracuse is up to something. And can Clemson shake the loss of Kelly Bryant transferring and the drama behind that? Dun dun duunnnn.