I'll be honest, I was at a family dinner and we turned it off in favor of the volleyball game about halfway into the third quarter. SO, this recap will be short. But hey, we beat the spread! And honestly that's a pretty dang good sign on the road against Wisconsin. They lost by 17 but it felt like they were within 10. There were still some flashes of brilliance mixed in with the penalties and missed tackles that we know and love. Frost is still turning over the roster as people are transferring out, and bad Riley players are getting benched, the latest of which is Lightbourn getting benched for Armstrong. Honestly the jokes write themselves there that they have another Armstrong on the team and also ironic that he is the punter.
The Big Red Breakdown:
This week Nebraska travels to North Lincoln, Illinois to play Northwestern. This is the best I've felt about a Nebraska game since Colorado. I think they get this. Northwestern has played very consistent ball this year, but per usual, nothing super flashy to be scared of. Yes they beat Purdue and Michigan State and almost picked off Michigan, but I still think the Big Ten is on a very down year where just about anyone can beat anyone, mostly. I don't think any of those results are flukes, and yes I'm including their loss to Akron here as well. Northwestern has historically played "good enough" football to get their job done. And this is why I think Nebraska is poised to do something about it. They have begun to take form of the team that they were supposed to be the last two weeks. Albeit we're still forming that pool of liquid that will soon solidify into what it would be, but give it time.
While there might not be anything special about Northwestern, there also isn't too much going on for Nebraska either. Still one of the worst in committing penalties, still shoddy defense, and still young on offense and mistake prone. Which is the counterpoint as to why Nebraska will continue to be win-less. Northwestern DOES have a good history on pouncing on mistakes, and this game isn't too far from looking like the Colorado game.
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs. Northwestern D: Edge Nebraska. I think everything finally comes back together for the offense as Northwestern doesn't exactly pose a threat on defense other than being able to take advantage of mistakes.
Nebraska D vs. Northwestern O: Edge Northwestern. Northwestern did lose their starting running back a few weeks ago and they don't have anyone else above 100 rushing yards on the season...so they'll gladly look to the air against a still questionable secondary in Nebraska. However, if they do come together on the ground, expect Nebraska to miss a tackle to give one of the new Northwestern backs their 100th yard.
Special Teams: This is where I'm most concerned. Nebraska has looked like ass all year on special teams. Hopefully a shake up in punters does the trick, but that still leaves a Swiss cheese punt coverage squad going up against a usually good Northwestern return team.
Prediction: Nebraska is so close. This game will be tightly contested until Nebraska commits a game winning penalty with a few minutes to spare. But again, this is the best I've felt about getting a win this season, so I really really hope that this is the case.
Northwestern 30, Nebraska 28
The Rest of the World in College Football:
Regression Rankings:
Last week the model went 37-19 (66.07%) across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 81-33 (71.05%). We're starting to see a little bit of stability across the rankings, however we're still seeing total beat downs being rewarded (see Clemson, Memphis)
1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (-)
3) Central Florida (-)
4) Georgia (+1)
5) Penn State (+1)
6) Ohio State (-2)
7) Utah State (+2)
8) Clemson (+15)
9) Fresno State (-1)
10) Cincinnati (+1)
11) North Texas (-1)
12) Miami (-5)
13) West Virginia (-)
14) Oregon (+1)
15) Michigan (+1)
16) Memphis (New)
17) Houston (+2)
18) Oklahoma (-6)
19) Washington State (New)
20) Florida (-)
21) Colorado (-4)
22) Mississippi State (New)
23) Syracuse (-9)
24) Texas Tech (New)
25) Wisconsin (New)
...
84) Northwestern
...
123) Nebraska (-)
...
126) Rutgers (-)
127) Louisiana-Monroe (New)
128) South Alabama (New)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConn (-)
Since we're just about at the halfway point of the season, if these rankings were reflective of conference championships; this is how they would look:
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big 12: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Colorado (North vs. South)
Best G5 Team: Appalachian State
Over(rated)Watch:
#7 Washington - Overrated. I think after all of the struggles Washington has had this year, you don't just win by one touchdown against UCLA and be a confident Top 10 team. Washington is riding the coattails of already being ranked highly. It's only a matter of time before the AP realizes that losing to Auburn is a bad look. They travel to Oregon where they will either be exposed or have their season saved.
#9 Texas - Overrated. Texas is not back and will never be back. They play Baylor where they will probably remember that they are Texas.
#12 Michigan - Being Watched. So they might have figured out their offense finally, but I'll still hold reservations. They play Wisconsin in another Big Ten classic overrated matchup.
No teams proved their worth last week, but RIP Kentucky.
Teams that have been taken care of and are low-key being watched: #13 LSU, #21 Auburn
Hot Take Central:
-Nebraska and UCLA still remain the only win-less Power 5 teams in the nation. I think one of these two will win, but still a high likely-hood that both lose.
-Early contenders for first time conference winners in the last 10 years: NC State, West Virginia, Colorado, and Kentucky
-The epic 3 SEC team fan theory got blown up because 1) LSU lost, 2) I failed to realize that LSU plays Georgia this week and that will also throw a wrench into the plans.
-The Pac-12 South is giving the Big Ten West a run for the "worst division" award
Prediction Center:
A meh 2-2 week puts us at 13-7 on the year. But baby we got that Upset Alert to move up to 2-3 on those bold calls (But it was Auburn on the road so do we really call it an upset?)
#2 Georgia @ #13 LSU - Georgia 31, LSU 20
Well someone forgot that this was a matchup this year. If LSU wants to save its season, it needs to show up here. Meanwhile, a Georgia loss and suddenly Kentucky is perking up to steal the division.
#7 Washington @ #17 Oregon - Oregon 34, Washington 24
Another highly esteemed defense rolling into Eugene. And honestly, Oregon looked poise to beat Stanford, and probably should have. But they'll get their redemption shot as they look to put Washington in its place and open up the Pac-12 North race.
#15 Wisconsin @ #12 Michigan - Michigan 23, Wisconsin 17
That Michigan defense will be way too much for Hornibrook, giving their meh offense good field position where they don't have to do much. They can only ride Jonathan Taylor for so long.
Upset Alert: Baylor @ #9 Texas. Baylor hasn't been super spectacular so I don't 100% like this call, but cmon, its Texas. They got lucky against a poor Oklahoma defense, and while Baylor can't be much better, we can also say that Texas was motivated in a "rivalry" game.
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