Friday, October 5, 2018

Grate Expectations (Vs. Wisconsin)

Recap:

This was one of those games where looking at the score hurts, but watching it wasn't terrible. Yes, a loss to Purdue is a loss to Purdue, but at this point in the season, Nebraska might as well embrace the suck and just randomly beat Ohio State because why the fuck not. Nothing really stood out positively, run game was solid, but overall nothing flashy. And the only major sucky thing this week was the continuation of piss poor tackling and the penalties. My god the penalties. I read a great stat that Nebraska was one of the best in getting teams into 3rd and forever situations, but then is also the worst at getting out of said 3rd and forever situations, whether its missing a tackle for a big play, or an automatic first down penalty.

That needs to stop. And Frost knows it too. His post game presser after Purdue was great. He knows this team is bad and he's tired of the bullshit too. That's why we're finally seeing players that were starting under Riley getting benched, or transferred. Are they good players? Skill wise perhaps, but clearly we haven't seen that product on the field. What we are seeing is exactly how Frost put it, a lack of discipline. Whether that was ingrained by Riley, or just being resistant to the new coaching changes, it needs to stop. And I think the Purdue game was a great turning point in seeing some of that finally mesh together. If only they could turn that into a win.

The Big Red Breakdown:

And sadly, trying to find that win will be another fever dream this week as Nebraska travels to cheese land to play the most overrated-but-still-somewhat-good Wisconsin. Every. Single. Year. Since the Big Ten Championship Game, I've wanted Nebraska to beat Wisconsin's ass so badly because of how overrated they are and a team like that shouldn't be losing to Nebraska (when they were at least a respectable 9-win team). And every year that never happens. Obviously, deep deep down, I want that to hold true, but this year I know it's going to be a bloodbath. Yay. Any silver linings? Perhaps. If the defense wakes up and provides some pressure, juuuuuust maybe we can get around the fact that Jonathan Taylor will run for another rushing record. And the offense could be clicking. This is still a Wisconsin defense, but probably not one of the better defenses they've fielded. The Michigan defense should still be the toughest defense Nebraska plays this year, and the offense might have finally turned a page. Again, it was only against Purdue, but the quicker Nebraska can get rid of the toxic penalties, maybe, just maybe, they can beat the 17-point spread.

Nebraska O vs. Wisconsin D: Edge Wisconsin. Expect some breakthroughs here and there, but I still don't foresee that Nebraska will be firing on all cylinders for no more than a few touchdown drives against this modest defense.

Nebraska D vs. Wisconsin O: Edge Wisconsin. The good news is that Hornibrook still sucks. The bad news is, Wisconsin finally realized this and is going mostly run heavy this year. If Nebraska stuffs the run and doesn't get a penalty for it, then maybe there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

Special Teams: Well. That's one way to not put Lindsey back to return punts...RIP. But look what happens when JD does it!

Prediction: Things are coming together at Nebraska very slowly. A lot of people are still citing that if the Akron game was played this year, Nebraska would be looking at 4-1 because they would have ironed out all of their kinks against Akron. At the same time, we've been saying that for weeks and Nebraska continues to make those same mistakes. I personally think the Purdue game was a turning point, and Wisconsin will be a great test to see if the message was received or not. Now excuse me while I go watch Kenny Bell's block for the rest of the night.

Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 17

(source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Based off of the rankings, the model went 44-14 last week across all FBS games.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (+4)
3) Central Florida (+2)
4) Ohio State (-2)
5) Georgia (+2)
6) Penn State (-3)
7) Miami (+8)
8) Fresno State (+2)
9) Utah State (+3)
10) North Texas (-6)
11) Cincinnati (+13)
12) Oklahoma (+7)
13) West Virginia (-4)
14) Syracuse (-6)
15) Oregon (+8)
16) Michigan (-5)
17) Colorado (+3)
18) Boise State (+4)
19) Houston (New)
20) Florida (-4)
21) Auburn (+4)
22) Oklahoma State (New)
23) Clemson (-5)
24) Kentucky (New)
25) LSU (New)
...
32) Wisconsin
...
123) Nebraska (-1)
...
126) Rutgers (+2)
127) UCLA (New)
128) New Mexico State (+1)
129) Bowling Green (New)
130) UConn (-)

And yes, don't ask how a 1 win Rutgers is still behind a winless Nebraska. Clearly we're looking at potential and I'd still take Nebraska over Rutgers 10 times out of 10. I'm also not going to sit here and pretend that App St almost beat Penn State earlier this year.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Back to Being Watched. I think there's still a great shot that 3 SEC teams will make the playoff, and LSU has to be one of the 3 for the play to work. I still haven't 100% seen that they are the real deal however. They play Florida in what should be a manageable game.

#8 Auburn - Still Being Watched. They kept it close against Southern Miss, what? They play Mississippi State in what could be an upset alert game.

#10 Washington - Still Being Watched. There are literally no reads on this team but they might just wind up winning the Pac-12 because of it. Nothing flashy, but nothing stupid. They play UCLA tomorrow, thankfully Nebraska will still not be alone as a winless team.

Teams that have proven their worth: #6 Notre Dame, #13 Kentucky
Teams that have been exposed and are low key being watched: #14 Stanford

Hot Take Central (Successful Conversions: 1. Cold Takes: 1):

-Nebraska and UCLA remain the only winless Power 5 teams and it'll probably stay that way next week.

-Still waiting on the fake from Nebraska.

-Still early for conference championship stuff, but things could get interesting

-We are on a crash course for 3 SEC teams into the playoffs because Georgia and Alabama don't play each other in the regular season. Which means, that if the loser of Bama/LSU remains at one loss, and Georgia and the winner remain undefeated going into the championship game, then you have an easy undefeated SEC champ, and two 1-loss SEC teams. Good luck trying to convince them otherwise.

-Wisconsin is the best team in probably one of the weakest conferences in the nation wtf

Prediction Center:

A second consecutive undefeated week at 6-0 gets us back to what we're used to seeing here at 11-5. So close to hitting the upset alert last week, but we'll drop to 1-3 there.

#19 Texas vs. #7 Oklahoma - Oklahoma 45, Texas 31

Texas is not back and never will be back. But somehow this game brings out the best in them. Football is whack yo.

#5 LSU @ #22 Florida - LSU 24, Florida 10

Now would be a great game to show that you're not a pushover LSU. A good result against this great defense and I'll stop calling you overrated.

#6 Notre Dame @ #24 Virginia Tech - Notre Dame 31, VT 20

Funny enough, both teams are using their second QB of the year, one happens to actually be pretty good while the other is the backup for a reason. I'll let you figure whos who.

Upset Alert: #8 Auburn @ Mississippi State - Miss St has shown flashes of confidence whereas we're still trying to figure out Auburn. Add in a home game with cowbells and you got yourself a recipe for an upset.

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