The SEC

First of all, apologies for the delay on this article. I've been recently hired to be a RA for my University so training for that was pretty extraneous and time consuming, so I hardly had much time to get the data and break it down for the SEC. But finally here it is! Thank you for the patience, and with that being said, the school year is coming pretty quickly so I might be changing up how often/when I will be posting and about what. I'm thinking Fridays will be a preview for Nebraska football (because bias), as well as a tiny outlook for the slate on Saturday (Unless there is an interesting game on that Thursday, then I might post Thursday). Sunday will then be a recap as well as an update on my personal rankings based off of my formula. We'll figure it out, this will be an adventure for all of us, so I appreciate all of the support on this project! The post for the last preview, The Big Ten and the season overview, will be posted at some point, hopefully by next Sunday, but just know that it might not be on a Sunday, like this wasn't on a Sunday.


With that out of the way, let's talk about the SEC. You either really really love them, or you really really hate them. I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone that has fallen in between this spectrum when it comes to talking about SEC Football. Reasons to love: They win the big games a lot (An SEC team has appeared in 10 of the 16 BCS championship games, winning 9 of those 10, including 8 straight appearances from 2006-2013, 7 straight victories from 2006-2012 (Auburn’s rightful loss to Florida State in the 2013 game is the SEC’s only “loss” (See next sentence). I actually still question whether or not Auburn deserved to be there), and they had TWO TEAMS in the 2011 championship game for crying out loud (Alabama defeated LSU, but the way this loss is counted is weird, I don’t count it since the SEC still won))) (I think I put enough parenthesis to close that tangent).

They get a lot of media attention (ESPN themselves own the SEC Network. I personally only have issues with this because a TV company dedicated to sports owns it as opposed to other non-dedicated channels…SUCH AS): 

Big Ten Network – Owned by FOX

ACC Network – Owned by Raycom Sports (A very low key sports network in North Carolina. Covered by very few sports packages)

Pac-12 Network – Self-Owned (Props to them)

Big XII – Actually doesn’t have a network. I believe they have a contract with Fox Sports because sometimes we get games through Fox Sports Midwest/Kansas City but not 100% sure on that. That might just be conditional as explained a bit below (Also #blessed that we get FS KC in Lincoln rather than St Louis, because I’d much rather watch the Royals if nothing else was on) But…those selfish folks in Texas have the Longhorn Network, where you can get the latest info on everything Longhorns, owned by ESPN.

SEC Network – Owned by ESPN.

Other notable deals: NBC has the rights to Notre Dame home games if not covered by ESPN or ABC. CBS/CBS Sports has the rights to major SEC games (However, unlike NBC, I believe (correct me if I’m wrong) CBS can trump primetime rights from ESPN) additionally CBS has the Army/Navy game. I think FOX also has rights to Pac-12 games but not 100% on that either. If they do, I don’t believe they can trump ESPN like CBS can.

Soooo the SEC gets quite a bit of attention. Which then becomes part of the subject of why everyone hates the SEC. “They get too much attention, they’re so overrated because they get all sorts of attention and then end up flopping.” Which actually in some cases that last part is true! With all of the attention that the SEC gets, the conference can fall extremely short of expectations, as a whole. Now don’t get me wrong, they do have their good teams, namely Alabama and LSU, and the Mississippi’s are becoming a bit more relevant. But as a whole, the SEC can be a seemingly weak conference when it comes to bowl games. Which then triggers this counter argument from pro-SEC people: “Well as a whole they’re weak because they beat each other up because they’re just that good!” Wellll okkkkkk….the SEC has a life time +29 spread in bowl games…I’m too lazy to check if that’s grand or not compared to other conferences (Additionally a +20 spread since the BCS era (1998), ok maybe this is fairly good) But let’s now ask this. How significant are these bowl games? Considering that this article is already a week-ish late (sorry folks), I’m not in the mood to go that far into that discussion. But we can take a look at last year mayhaps:

2014: 7-5:

Independence Bowl: South Carolina beat Miami 24-21 (By my rankings, this was an even matchup with South Carolina favored, but due to their records (both being .500) we can view this as an “insignificant” bowl game)

Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M beat West Virginia 45-37 (Again, viewed as an even matchup in which I had West Virginia favored)

Texas Bowl: Arkansas beat Texas 31-7 (In my system this matchup was a bit more lopsided than the previous two, Arkansas accurately held that standard)

Music City Bowl: Notre Dame beat LSU 31-28 (Here we get the first major upset and an SEC disappointment, even though again the bowl game isn’t terribly significant because of their records, 9-3 vs 7-5, but LSU was heavily favored)

Belk Bowl: Georgia beat Louisville 37-14 (The one thing I like about bowl games is that they do do a great job of getting even matchups, Georgia was favored)

Peach Bowl*: TCU reamed Ole Miss 42-3 (This game was supposed to be a wee bit closer, but the fact that Ole Miss got shellacked on national television in what was considered a “pretty big game”, that’s a negative mark for the SEC)

Orange Bowl*: Georgia Tech beat Mississippi State 49-34 (My system had this as a major upset, but I think Georgia Tech was fairly underrated, again they almost beat Florida State)

Outback Bowl: Wisconsin beat Auburn 34-31 (Another well done matchup with the SEC getting the short end)

Citrus Bowl: Missouri beat Minnesota 33-17 (Again another fair matchup)

Sugar Bowl**: Ohio State beat Alabama 42-35 (It looked like Alabama was going to win…)

Gator Bowl: Tennessee beat Iowa 45-28 (Tennessee was favored)

Birmingham Bowl: Florida beat East Carolina 28-20 (This game should not have been that close for Florida)

* = New Year’s Six Bowl (Aka the really big ones)

** = College Football Playoff Semi-Final

So, positives for the SEC? They were favored in every bowl game but two (based off my system, Texas A&M and Alabama). And Texas A&M did win one as an underdog. However, there were two upsets (LSU and we’ll count Mississippi State), a national embarrassment (Ole Miss), and a game that was closer than it should have been (Florida). Additionally, they lost the three major bowl games they were represented in (albeit in two of the three they were the underdogs) I’ll just leave that there for you guys to form your own opinions. Maybe there’s a valid point, maybe not.

But here at The Number Games were focused on the now instead of dwelling on the past, and now we’re seeing Tennessee as a pre-season dark horse, and a Nick Marshall-less Auburn as a national champion dark horse. I say let’s scoff and debunk these and other things right away!

Late edit about the media coverage the SEC gets: One day (Thursday I think? Maybe Wednesday) ESPN had two reports on their bottom line about an LSU player being out for a few weeks, and Alabama’s QB sitting a few practice sessions out to a minor injury. That same day, Nebraska’s biggest return threat, who even made national headlines at times, gets injured and is out for about half the season (RIP Demornay) but gets ZERO attention. Like I didn’t know he was injured until one of my friends who I was unsure how well she follows (apparently she follows fairly well then) just nonchalantly tells me while we’re chilling and I didn’t believe her. Like how can big news such as that get by me? That’s ridiculous.

Last Year’s Standings:

SEC East:

1. Missouri 11-3, 7-1

2. Georgia 10-3, 6-2

3. Florida 7-5, 4-4

4. Tennessee 7-6, 3-5

5. South Carolina 7-6, 3-5

6. Kentucky 5-7, 2-6

7. Vanderbilt 3-9, 0-8

SEC West:

1. Alabama 12-2, 7-1

2. Mississippi State 10-3, 6-2

3. Ole Miss 9-4, 5-3

4. Auburn 8-5, 4-4

5. LSU 8-5, 4-4

6. Texas A&M 8-5, 3-5

7. Arkansas 7-6, 2-6

(Insert pro-SEC “Well a whole division of a conference finished above .500!!!)

Alabama defeated Missouri 42-13 in the SEC Championship Game, would go on to lose to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff

Alabama (Image source, Diehardsports.com)

Projected/Best Case: 12-0, 8-0

Worst Case: 9-3, 5-3

Toss Up Games: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn (All wins)

Stupid Game of the Year: 11^th game is against Charleston Southern

(I love this picture because Nick Saban is basically acting like a god and gives no shits because hes the head coach of one of the most dominant teams in the nation. Like, "F yeah. I'm Nick Saban bitches and we're here to win. What are you going to do about it?")

I’m going to get this out of the way now because this is something I absolutely despise from the SEC, and in my opinion adds to the whole “they’re overrated” at times thing. Each team in the SEC likes to schedule weak/FCS non conference games IN THE MIDDLE of the year, or towards the end (In Alabama’s case it’s at the end)!!! What does this mean realistically? In today’s day and age, if you lose toward the end of the year, you can dash your hopes of national championships/big games good bye, because if you lose toward the beginning, you have more games to re-prove your worth. So when teams like TCU and Baylor are going at it, teams in the SEC are just cherry picking a free win in the meat of the season. So for this SEC post, I’m introducing the “Stupid Game of the Year”!

Aside from that, besides Alabama being Alabama, they get a friendly schedule even outside of their stupid schedule, they should be back in the thick of the national championship conversation easily despite fielding a youngish team.

Arkansas (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 8-4, 4-4

Best Case: 9-3, 5-3

Worst Case: 6-6, 2-6

Toss Up Games: Auburn (Win), Mississippi State (Loss), Missouri (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year: 8^th game is against UT Martin

This projection was made after reports of their leading RB being out for the season anyway, but in reality it didn’t change too much, just swung the MSU game to a win and maybe added Ole Miss as a toss up if he is available. But make no mistake that Arkansas is on the rise under Bielema with the success of last season. I see Arkansas as a bigger dark horse than Tennessee or Auburn *cough looking at you media cough*.

Auburn (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 5-7, 1-7

Best Case: 10-2, 6-2

Worst Case: 4-8, 0-8

Toss Up Games: Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M (All losses), Georgia (Win), Alabama (Loss)

Stupid Game of the Year: 11^th game is against Idaho

Speaking of silly dark horses, I still don’t understand how the media is giving Auburn a bunch of love. Their starting QB is gone, and they don’t have anyone outstanding to fill the void. Their offense always has the potential to be surprisingly explosive, but I wouldn’t put much hope into this year for Auburn. Their toss up games are solely reliant on how other teams will perform, because this Auburn team has potential, but not national championship (or SEC championship) potential.

Florida (Image source, CBS Sports)

Projected: 5-7, 2-6

Best Case: 9-3, 6-2

Worst Case: 4-8, 1-7

Toss Up Games: Kentucky (Loss), Tennessee (Win), Ole Miss, Missouri, South Carolina (Losses)

Stupid Game of the Year: 11^th game is against Florida Atlantic

A very similar outlook to that of Auburn, but Florida doesn’t have media expectations held upon them. Still suffering from QB issues, but we’ll see how this plays out, for Florida’s sake, hopefully for the better.

Georgia (Image source, SBNation)

Projected: 9-3, 6-2

Best Case: 10-2, 7-1

Worst Case: 5-7, 3-5

Toss Up Games: South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky (Wins), Auburn (Loss), Georgia Southern (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year (Which actually Georgia’s might be closer than people will anticipate): 11^th game is against Georgia Southern

I’m not too particular on Georgia…they don’t have too much going for them besides a potential Heisman candidate in RB Nick Chubb, and a very simple schedule. Let this be a small down year for a normally decent-ish squad. If Nick Chubb sticks around, Georgia could re-threaten the national scene next year.

Kentucky (Image source, USA Today)

Projected: 9-3, 5-3

Best Case: 11-1, 7-1

Worst Case: 5-7, 2-6

Toss Up Games: South Carolina (Loss), Florida, Missouri, Auburn (Wins), Georgia (Loss), Louisville (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year: 11^th game is against Charlotte

Move over basketball, here comes the chippy football team and their defense. But here’s the thing with Kentucky’s generous projection: It’s a combination of their easy schedule, the fact that the SEC might be taking a dip in terms of talent, and the fact that they showed promise last year. They had some good fights last year, and a majority of the team is sticking around so expect a similar, if not improved unit from last year’s surprise squad.

LSU (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 10-2, 6-2

Best Case: 12-0, 8-0

Worst Case: 9-3, 5-3

Toss Up Games: Mississippi State, Alabama (Losses), Ole Miss (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year: 8^th game is against Western Kentucky

Ignoring the fact that they also play Syracuse and Eastern Michigan in their 4^th and 5^th game respectively (we can pardon that as that is still sorta kinda in the non-conference part of most team’s schedule), LSU has a straight forward schedule. Additionally, they have a stronger team this year and hopefully they can have a better season than they did last year with the talent that they have. Beware the run game.

Mississippi State (Image source, CBS Sports)

Projected: 11-1, 7-1

Best Case: 12-0, 8-0

Worst Case: 8-4, 4-4

Toss Up Games: LSU (Win), Alabama (Loss), Arkansas, Ole Miss (Wins)

Stupid Game of the Year: 6^th and 7^th game is against Troy and Louisiana Tech respectively (We can maybe pardon one of the two but oh well)

Mississippi State quickly flew under the radar and went undefeated for a majority of the season and people thought they could de-throne Alabama (and they almost did on the road). Cue my beef with the media: Despite losing few key players, the Bulldogs are still not on the media’s radar for national championship contention. Lolwut? A team that went 9-0, almost went 10-0 if they got through Alabama, returning most of their key players *cough Dak Prescott cough* and they’re projected to go 6-6 based off ESPN’s FPI? Uhh ok…but this is also why I’m doing things like this to prove people wrong!

Missouri (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 8-4, 4-4

Best Case: 11-1, 7-1

Worst Case: 5-7, 2-6

Toss Up Games: Kentucky (Loss), South Carolina, Florida (Wins), Georgia (Loss), BYU (Win), Arkansas (Loss)

Stupid Game of the Year: None! Yay Missouri! (Well, technically BYU would be the “stupid game” since they will play them on the 10^th game, but BYU is no pushover)

Missouri has always been a meh team. Nothing too brilliant, but never a team to crumble and get blown out, even back in the Big XII. That being said, nothing stands out from this Missouri squad aside from a potentially friendly schedule. Maybe they can prove their worth throughout the season as they still try to figure out the SEC.

Ole Miss (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 9-3, 5-3

Best Case: 11-1, 7-1

Worst Case: 7-5, 3-5

Toss Up Games: Florida, Auburn (Wins), LSU, Mississippi State (Losses)

Stupid Game of the Year: 6^th and 7^th game is against New Mexico State and Memphis respectively

Ole Miss will be taking a step backwards this year, in both defense and offense. But much like their in-state rival, they flew under the radar a bit last season and should still be slightly relevant this year. A fairly straight forward schedule, except the last few games, but Ole Miss could contend.

South Carolina (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 8-4, 5-3

Best Case: 10-2, 7-1

Worst Case: 6-6, 3-5

Toss Up Games: Kentucky (Win), Georgia, Missouri (Losses), Florida (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year: 11^th game is against Citadel

Since the departure of Clowney, South Carolina has kind of fallen off the track of the national scene, and in some cases, has been fairly overrated in the national scheme. I think this year the media is getting South Carolina right, parting some of the attention to their in-state rivals in Clemson, which they will play at the end of the season. They should still be bowling though at the end of the year.

Tennessee (Image source, USA Today)

Projected/Worst Case: 4-8, 1-7

Best Case: 5-7, 2-6

Toss Up Game: Florida (Loss)

Stupid Game of the Year: 10^th game is against North Texas

(My eyes hurt from all of the orange I had to flip through to find a decent picture of Tennessee)

Tennessee should be grateful that it has a “stupid game” on their schedule. I’m also calling bull with all of their pre season hype. Every year people say “Oh Tennessee will be great this year!” and just end up flopping. This year will be no different.

Texas A&M (Image source, Bleacher Report)

Projected/Best Case: 5-7, 2-6

Worst Case: 4-8, 1-7

Toss Up Game: Auburn (Win)

Stupid Game of the Year: 10^th game is against West Carolina

They’re trying with Kenny Trill—I mean Hill. But what started as a great career quickly got shut down by…mediocrity. All hype. Per usual. Like Manziel. Texas A&M needs to step it up if it wants to compete in the SEC.

Vanderbilt (Image source, ESPN)

Projected/Worst Case: 1-11, 0-8

Best Case: 4-8, 0-8

Toss Up Games: Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Houston (All losses)

Vanderbilt doesn’t necessarily have a stupid game because they themselves, are the bottom tier of the SEC. Try again next year, or get better and bring some hope.

SEC Championship Game: Alabama will beat Georgia, Alabama will go to the Final Four--I mean the playoffs