Pac-12 Preview

In the national scheme, the Pac-12 is a fairly overrated and underrated conference at the same time. I mean this in a slightly gentle way, meaning there are teams that are getting the wrong kind of attention. Which in turn, makes this a very balanced and interesting conference to watch. They have a national contender (Oregon) but a slew of everyone else that can knock out Oregon if the cards are played correctly. But this past week I’ve been sitting here listening to experts call Stanford and UCLA as major contenders for the Pac-12, and even national championship aspirations. What? UCLA first of all lost their already overrated QB (so glad he went to the Packers) so there’s a new guy in town who has seen some looks in games and he’s even worse than Hundley. And he’s in charge of an already mediocre offense. On the other hand, Stanford? Really? Some people are calling last year an off year, but I think that was an accurate representation of this Stanford squad. Really bad offense but they played tight D to keep them in games. The outlook for Stanford this year (which will be detailed later) is roughly the same.

And then here we have some underrated teams that could easily become the dark horse of the conference, much more so than UCLA or Stanford. I’m looking at you California and Utah, both of whom are returning key starters on their forte of the ball (Cali on offense, Utah on defense). Hell, even the Arizonas aren’t getting enough love, they have the power (and the schedule in some regard) to run the table. And let’s not forget, this is USC’s “peak year” as I like to call it. So enough chit-chat and let’s break down the favorites, the overrated, the underrated, and the mediocre.

Last Year’s Standings:

Pac-12 North:

1. Oregon 13-2, 8-1 (National Runner Up)

2. Stanford 8-5, 5-4

3. Washington 8-6, 4-5

4. California 5-7, 3-6

5. Washington State 3-9, 2-7

6. Oregon State 5-7, 2-7

Pac-12 South:

1. Arizona 10-4, 7-2

2. UCLA 10-3, 6-3

3. Arizona State 10-3, 6-3

4. USC 9-4, 6-3

5. Utah 9-4, 5-4

6. Colorado 2-10, 0-9

Oregon murdered Arizona 51-13 in the Pac-12 championship game, despite losing to them at home earlier in the season

Arizona (Image Source, USA Today)

Projected: 11-1, 8-1

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 9-3, 6-3

Toss Up Games: USC (Loss), Utah, Arizona State (Wins)

Not having Oregon on their schedule, with other friendly scheduling favors done for Arizona, is crucial for being able to run the table with this team. Those toss up games are the last three games Arizona plays, so by then we should be able to see if they are for real or if they will flunk. They return a modest offense, but key players on defense such as Scooby-dooby-do Wright return as well (His name actually is Scooby, I just added that last bit). Don’t be surprised with the Wildcats this year.

Arizona State (Image Source, USA Today)

Projected: 8-4, 5-4

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 5-7, 3-6

Toss Up Games: Texas A&M (Win), USC, UCLA (Losses), Utah (Win), Oregon, Arizona (Losses), California (Win)

Going down the road to Tempe, we see another team with loads of potential. However, the scheduling gods seemed to favor their in-state rival a bit more, hence the couple more losses. They do lose a bit on offense, but nothing Taylor Kelly can’t fix. Alongside with their bruising and blitzing defense, the Sun Devils could look to run some upsets and shake it up in the Pac-12.

California (Image Source, Pac-12.com)

Projected: 5-7, 3-6

Best Case: 11-1, 8-1

Worst Case: 4-8, 2-7

Toss Up Games: Texas (Loss), Washington (Win), Utah, UCLA, USC, Stanford, Arizona (All losses)

Despite all the love I was giving California in my intro, their schedule doesn’t love them back. At the same time, this team will have what I call the “Nebraska Effect”. They look good, and within reason, they should be able to knock out most of their schedule. But for whatever reason they might not, and fall flat on their butts. I’m going to lean for Cali being a .500 team this year, and I’ll take the over instead of my projected under, but we’ll see. Watch for some upset alerts and don’t be alarmed if for whatever reason they’re in the race for the Pac-12 title.

Colorado (Image Source, Pac-12.com)

Projected: 6-7, 2-7

Best Case: 7-6, 3-6

Worst Case: 3-9, 0-9

Toss Up Games: Colorado State (Win), Oregon State (Win), Stanford (Loss), Washington State (Win)

For whatever reason, Colorado is special and gets to play 13 games instead of 12 this season. An easy non-conference schedule will hype up Colorado, but then they will enter the reality that is the Pac-12 and remember they are still probably a good year or two away from being relevant in their new conference. If they were still in the Big XII, they could make a mid-table run with this team (Did I just use a soccer term in football? Deal with it.)

Oregon (Image Source, Grantland)

Projected/Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 9-3, 7-2

Toss Up Games: Michigan State, Arizona State, USC (All wins)

Let me present you with a puzzler. It’s the post-Mariota era for Oregon, but they’re still going to be just as electric without him. Why you may ask? An unexpectedly good defense and the fact that they have options at QB (Not quite the number of options Ohio State seems to have, but options nonetheless). Not only do they have Mariota’s backup hanging around, they picked up a transfer that none of you have probably ever heard of (Insert hipster sports analyst)! Let me fill you in on this FCS transfer. Oh yea, he’s from Eastern Washington, an FCS school. But a very good FCS school. He threw the ball around like it was backyard ball, and he’s had games against some Pac-12 teams (ok Oregon State and Washington are kind of on the bottom of the totem pole, but for an FCS team that still says something. They won against Oregon State by the way)*. Now let’s put this into perspective, if he was putting up those kinds of numbers against Pac-12 competition (among others) with an FCS squad, imagine what he can do with Oregon’s firepower. Even if he doesn’t end up starting, Mariota’s backup can still heat it up as he understands the system. Oregon for national championship 2016.

 *Footnote: Vernon Adams (The transfer) vs...

Oregon State: Won 49-46. 23-30 for 411 yards and 4 TD. Rushed 16 times for 107 yards and 2 TD

Washington: Lost 52-59. 31-46 for 475 yards and 7 TD. Rushed 17 times for only 16 yards.

That's 886 yards of passing with 11 TD AND NO interceptions in two games against Pac-12 defenses. Like damn son.

Oregon State (Image Source, Pac-12.com)

Projected: 2-10, 0-9

Best Case: 4-8, 2-7

Worst Case (It can get worse?): 1-11, 0-9

Toss Up Games: San Jose State (Win), Washington State, Colorado (Losses)

And down the road from Eugene, we enter the post-Mike Riley and other very good seniors that he’s developed era. Oh and whoever the new QB was going to be transferred away, oops. Time for the Beavers to start rebuilding.

Stanford (Image Source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 6-6, 5-4

Best Case: 9-3, 6-3

Worst Case: 4-8, 3-6

Toss Up Games: Northwestern, UCLA (Losses), Colorado, California (Wins), Notre Dame (Loss)

Overrated. Yet an easy schedule. Tough non-conference, but friendly with how the home/away games are set up. Their only saving grace is their 4^th year starting QB Hogan, who can guide a meh offense, but they got stingy defense that, again, can keep them in the midst of some games. Additionally, their mascot is the Cardinals, ew.

UCLA (Image Source, ESPN)

Projected: 9-3, 6-3

Best Case: 10-2, 7-2

Worst Case: 5-7, 3-6

Toss Up Games: BYU, Arizona State, Stanford, California, (Wins), Utah (Loss)

Another curse of the overrated team getting away with having an easy schedule. If the Bruins defense can keep them in enough games for their new just-as-overrated QB to get adjusted, then maybe they could become legitimate contenders.

USC (Image Source, Fox News)

Projected: 11-1, 8-1

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 8-4, 5-4

Toss Up Games: Arizona State, California, Arizona (Wins), Oregon (Loss)

As I mentioned, this is USC’s “peak year”. If they’re going to contend, this will probably be the last time they will be able to do it until a couple more years down the road with it being Kessler's last year under center. A very favorable schedule with the possible Pac-12 Championship preview against Oregon (and even a possible stab at them to go undefeated). The Trojans have a healthy and explosive offense, but the defense might have some questions as they lose key players.

Utah (Image Source, Desertnews)

Projected: 8-4, 5-4

Best Case: 10-2, 7-2

Worst Case: 5-7, 2-7

Toss Up Games: California (Win), Arizona State (Loss), Washington (Win), Arizona (Loss), UCLA (Win)

Utah has flown under the radar since they’ve joined the Pac-12 and they’ll continue to do so as the dark horse for a few more years. They’re not outstanding by any means, but they don’t stink. They were one stupid mistake away from getting close to beating Oregon last year (See below as it’s one of my favorite vids from last year!) Expect Utah to remain in the middle of that pack, but they have that ability to knock a couple pegs off of the top teams.

It went from 14-0 Utah to a 7-7 tie. Shame. Also the look on the refs face when Oregon takes it back is priceless. "Did that just happen? Can we talk about if that just actually happened guys? Let's review it but I'm pretty sure that just happened..."

Washington (Image Source, Pac-12.com)

Projected: 4-8, 2-7

Best Case: 6-6, 4-5

Worst Case: 3-9, 2-7

Toss Up Games: Utah State (Win), California, Utah (Losses)

With all due respect toward Chris Petersen and his magical ways, if he can magically turn this Washington team above .500 for the second year in a row, then he will have truly done everything in his career.

Washington State (Image Source, CBS Sports)

Projected/Best Case: 4-8, 2-7

Worst Case: 2-10, 0-9

Toss Up Games: Oregon State, Colorado (Wins)

Stick to waving that flag during College Gameday. Especially since your star QB is graduated.

Projected: Oregon def USC in Pac-12 Title Game. Oregon becomes a national championship contender.