Golden Opportunity (Vs. Minnesota)

Recap:

Existence is pain. I hate being right, but that was the very definition of "Nebraska is so close". At the same time, someone needs to get Lamar Jackson and Antonio Reed off the field, and that was hands down one of Aaron Williams' worst games ever. That entire secondary just looked more lost than usual and Northwestern made them pay for it big time. I also don't care of he's just a freshman, but I don't think I've seen a worse kicker at Nebraska. Frost changed the punting, so I think it's time for a change at kicker as well. Got nothing to lose at this point right?

The Big Red Breakdown:

The bright side (if there really is one) is that Nebraska is still bowl eligible. Yeah they would need to win out, including a miracle upset against Ohio State, but we still need to look at every positive outlook as we can here right? Is it feasible? No, but a man can dream. Unfortunately, even with the Ohio State loss, 5-7 will most likely not get Nebraska into a bowl as their Academic Progress Ranking is a bit down the list again this year. Of course again, we'd need to be at that 5-7 point for that conversation to be relevant, but again, positivity.

But first things first is Minnesota. A team that gave Ohio State a scare last week, which gives me hope that Nebraska can at the very least do the same. Minnesota comes in with a terrible offense but a great defense. And the last time I said that, Minnesota hung 54 on them. But again, if Nebraska can ride the feeling of almost winning last week and turn it into positives, then they can win this game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Minnesota D: Edge Nebraska. Despite having a fairly stellar defense in Minnesota, Nebraska is finally clicking on offense. The last thing that needs to get resolved is the offensive line in terms of giving Martinez some better protection.

Nebraska D vs. Minnesota O: Edge Nebraska. Minnesota doesn't bring a lot to the table on offense, however this is the Nebraska defense we are still talking about here, mistakes will be made.

Special Teams: Punting team got their fix, lets give the field goal kickers a change up now. Seriously. If you miss an extra point and a field goal, and then in overtime the coach decides that they have a better chance of getting points going for it on 4th and 1 instead of having you attempt a 35 some yarder field goal? That has to light a fire under your ass to get better. To put the cherry on top of that, if you got benched in the next game because of that, that would absolutely put a fire under your ass to get better at kicking. Sheesh.

Prediction: The time is now. No more mistakes. No more penalties. Ok maybe less penalties at least. Nebraska needs to win this game. I hate to say it that I'm calling Minnesota a "must win game", but how staggering would that be if we have to wait till next week against an FCS foe for Nebraska's first win? And even then what if they fuck that one up? If there is some divine intervention and Minnesota finds an offense and this turns into a shootout, I still like Nebraska's odds here.

Nebraska 28, Minnesota 20

(source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

The model went 39-16 (70.91%) last week across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 120-49 (71.01%)

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (-)
3) Central Florida (-)
4) Utah State (+3)
5) Ohio State (+1)
6) Clemson (+2)
7) Fresno State (+2)
8) Cincinnati (+2)
9) Penn State (-4)
10) Michigan (+5)
11) North Texas (-)
12) Georgia (-8)
13) Houston (+4)
14) Oklahoma (+4)
15) UAB (New)
16) Oregon (-2)
17) Miami (-5)
18) Washington State (+1)
19) Mississippi State (+3)
20) Syracuse (+3)
21) Memphis (-5)
22) Florida (-2)
23) West Virginia (-10)
24) North Carolina State (New)
25) Iowa (New, gross)
...
75) Minnesota
...
122) Nebraska (+1)
...
126) New Mexico State (New)
127) Bowling Green (+2)
128) Rice (New)
129) Rutgers (-3)
130) UConn (-)

If these rankings were reflective of what the championships would be, here's how they would look:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Iowa (East vs. West)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big 12: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (Top 2)
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Colorado (North vs. South) <-- First time in blog history that a division was not represented in the Top 25. Colorado dropped from 21st to 29th with their loss to USC. Utah is next closest at 36th.

Best G5 Team: Appalachian State

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Being Watched Closely. Can't deny that beating Georgia is impressive. Can deny that the SEC is actually good this year. They play Mississippi State this week

#6 Michigan - Overrated. Michigan is only here because they're a one loss team and the AP voters see that and think they're all of a sudden good. They play Michigan State this week

#7 Texas - Overrated AF. Texas is only here because they're a one loss team and the AP voters see that and think they're all of a sudden good. Sadly they are on a bye this week.

#24 Michigan State - Being Watched. I'm sorry but there are better teams out there that deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State. Like, oh I don't know, how about the two G5 teams that almost beat the struggling Big Ten powerhouses this year? (Utah State and Appalachian State). They play Michigan this week

No teams proved their worth this week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #15 Washington

Hot Take Central:

-Nebraska is the last P5 winless team standing. Who would've thought.

-West Virginia and Colorado took a hit for their conference chances, and Georgia re-opened the door for Kentucky

-RIP SEC

-Colorado's loss has the Big Ten West shook as according to my model, they have taken over as the worst division in football. Although I'm sure the Big Ten won't be outdone this week!

Prediction Center:

3-1 last week puts us at 16-8 for the season. We fall to 2-4 on the Upset Alert as we came oh so close on converting another one.

#6 Michigan @ #24 Michigan State - Not State 27, State 14

I'm convinced the AP ranked Michigan State just so they could call this a ranked v ranked matchup for Michigan's sake. Conspiracy I say! Michigan's defense will get it done

#16 NC State @ #3 Clemson - Clemson 34, NC State 30

I think NC State is legit this year and this will be a good game, however the home field advantage will tilt this in Clemson's favor as I think they're also getting it together with Lawrence under center.

#22 Mississippi State @ #5 LSU - LSU 34, MSST 20

The SEC is weird as always, but we'll be taking LSU at home thank you very much

#12 Oregon @ #25 Washington State - Oregon 41, Washington St 34

Classic Pac-12 shootout that may decide the fate of the Pac-12 North as both teams still have been tagged with a conference loss. I just don't think Wazzu is as good as they were last year

Upset Alert: Colorado @ #15 Washington - Not sure how much of a stretch you want to call this one an upset, but I think Colorado puts the dagger in Washington's overrated season. Can't deny that the Buffs have showed up this year. Also can't deny that if Nebraska won, their season would look drastically different.

A Sense of Direction (Vs. Northwestern)

Recap:

I'll be honest, I was at a family dinner and we turned it off in favor of the volleyball game about halfway into the third quarter. SO, this recap will be short. But hey, we beat the spread! And honestly that's a pretty dang good sign on the road against Wisconsin. They lost by 17 but it felt like they were within 10. There were still some flashes of brilliance mixed in with the penalties and missed tackles that we know and love. Frost is still turning over the roster as people are transferring out, and bad Riley players are getting benched, the latest of which is Lightbourn getting benched for Armstrong. Honestly the jokes write themselves there that they have another Armstrong on the team and also ironic that he is the punter.

The Big Red Breakdown:

This week Nebraska travels to North Lincoln, Illinois to play Northwestern. This is the best I've felt about a Nebraska game since Colorado. I think they get this. Northwestern has played very consistent ball this year, but per usual, nothing super flashy to be scared of. Yes they beat Purdue and Michigan State and almost picked off Michigan, but I still think the Big Ten is on a very down year where just about anyone can beat anyone, mostly. I don't think any of those results are flukes, and yes I'm including their loss to Akron here as well. Northwestern has historically played "good enough" football to get their job done. And this is why I think Nebraska is poised to do something about it. They have begun to take form of the team that they were supposed to be the last two weeks. Albeit we're still forming that pool of liquid that will soon solidify into what it would be, but give it time.

While there might not be anything special about Northwestern, there also isn't too much going on for Nebraska either. Still one of the worst in committing penalties, still shoddy defense, and still young on offense and mistake prone. Which is the counterpoint as to why Nebraska will continue to be win-less. Northwestern DOES have a good history on pouncing on mistakes, and this game isn't too far from looking like the Colorado game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Northwestern D: Edge Nebraska. I think everything finally comes back together for the offense as Northwestern doesn't exactly pose a threat on defense other than being able to take advantage of mistakes.

Nebraska D vs. Northwestern O: Edge Northwestern. Northwestern did lose their starting running back a few weeks ago and they don't have anyone else above 100 rushing yards on the season...so they'll gladly look to the air against a still questionable secondary in Nebraska. However, if they do come together on the ground, expect Nebraska to miss a tackle to give one of the new Northwestern backs their 100th yard.

Special Teams: This is where I'm most concerned. Nebraska has looked like ass all year on special teams. Hopefully a shake up in punters does the trick, but that still leaves a Swiss cheese punt coverage squad going up against a usually good Northwestern return team.

Prediction: Nebraska is so close. This game will be tightly contested until Nebraska commits a game winning penalty with a few minutes to spare. But again, this is the best I've felt about getting a win this season, so I really really hope that this is the case.

Northwestern 30, Nebraska 28

(source: College Football News)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Last week the model went 37-19 (66.07%) across all FBS games, bringing the season total to 81-33 (71.05%). We're starting to see a little bit of stability across the rankings, however we're still seeing total beat downs being rewarded (see Clemson, Memphis)

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (-)
3) Central Florida (-)
4) Georgia (+1)
5) Penn State (+1)
6) Ohio State (-2)
7) Utah State (+2)
8) Clemson (+15)
9) Fresno State (-1)
10) Cincinnati (+1)
11) North Texas (-1)
12) Miami (-5)
13) West Virginia (-)
14) Oregon (+1)
15) Michigan (+1)
16) Memphis (New)
17) Houston (+2)
18) Oklahoma (-6)
19) Washington State (New)
20) Florida (-)
21) Colorado (-4)
22) Mississippi State (New)
23) Syracuse (-9)
24) Texas Tech (New)
25) Wisconsin (New)
...
84) Northwestern
...
123) Nebraska (-)
...
126) Rutgers (-)
127) Louisiana-Monroe (New)
128) South Alabama (New)
129) Bowling Green (-)
130) UConn (-)

Since we're just about at the halfway point of the season, if these rankings were reflective of conference championships; this is how they would look:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Big 12: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
Pac-12: Oregon vs. Colorado (North vs. South)
Best G5 Team: Appalachian State

Over(rated)Watch:

#7 Washington - Overrated. I think after all of the struggles Washington has had this year, you don't just win by one touchdown against UCLA and be a confident Top 10 team. Washington is riding the coattails of already being ranked highly. It's only a matter of time before the AP realizes that losing to Auburn is a bad look. They travel to Oregon where they will either be exposed or have their season saved.

#9 Texas - Overrated. Texas is not back and will never be back. They play Baylor where they will probably remember that they are Texas.

#12 Michigan - Being Watched. So they might have figured out their offense finally, but I'll still hold reservations. They play Wisconsin in another Big Ten classic overrated matchup.

No teams proved their worth last week, but RIP Kentucky.
Teams that have been taken care of and are low-key being watched: #13 LSU, #21 Auburn

Hot Take Central:

-Nebraska and UCLA still remain the only win-less Power 5 teams in the nation. I think one of these two will win, but still a high likely-hood that both lose.

-Early contenders for first time conference winners in the last 10 years: NC State, West Virginia, Colorado, and Kentucky

-The epic 3 SEC team fan theory got blown up because 1) LSU lost, 2) I failed to realize that LSU plays Georgia this week and that will also throw a wrench into the plans.

-The Pac-12 South is giving the Big Ten West a run for the "worst division" award

Prediction Center:

A meh 2-2 week puts us at 13-7 on the year. But baby we got that Upset Alert to move up to 2-3 on those bold calls (But it was Auburn on the road so do we really call it an upset?)

#2 Georgia @ #13 LSU - Georgia 31, LSU 20

Well someone forgot that this was a matchup this year. If LSU wants to save its season, it needs to show up here. Meanwhile, a Georgia loss and suddenly Kentucky is perking up to steal the division.

#7 Washington @ #17 Oregon - Oregon 34, Washington 24

Another highly esteemed defense rolling into Eugene. And honestly, Oregon looked poise to beat Stanford, and probably should have. But they'll get their redemption shot as they look to put Washington in its place and open up the Pac-12 North race.

#15 Wisconsin @ #12 Michigan - Michigan 23, Wisconsin 17

That Michigan defense will be way too much for Hornibrook, giving their meh offense good field position where they don't have to do much. They can only ride Jonathan Taylor for so long.

Upset Alert: Baylor @ #9 Texas. Baylor hasn't been super spectacular so I don't 100% like this call, but cmon, its Texas. They got lucky against a poor Oklahoma defense, and while Baylor can't be much better, we can also say that Texas was motivated in a "rivalry" game.

Grate Expectations (Vs. Wisconsin)

Recap:

This was one of those games where looking at the score hurts, but watching it wasn't terrible. Yes, a loss to Purdue is a loss to Purdue, but at this point in the season, Nebraska might as well embrace the suck and just randomly beat Ohio State because why the fuck not. Nothing really stood out positively, run game was solid, but overall nothing flashy. And the only major sucky thing this week was the continuation of piss poor tackling and the penalties. My god the penalties. I read a great stat that Nebraska was one of the best in getting teams into 3rd and forever situations, but then is also the worst at getting out of said 3rd and forever situations, whether its missing a tackle for a big play, or an automatic first down penalty.

That needs to stop. And Frost knows it too. His post game presser after Purdue was great. He knows this team is bad and he's tired of the bullshit too. That's why we're finally seeing players that were starting under Riley getting benched, or transferred. Are they good players? Skill wise perhaps, but clearly we haven't seen that product on the field. What we are seeing is exactly how Frost put it, a lack of discipline. Whether that was ingrained by Riley, or just being resistant to the new coaching changes, it needs to stop. And I think the Purdue game was a great turning point in seeing some of that finally mesh together. If only they could turn that into a win.

The Big Red Breakdown:

And sadly, trying to find that win will be another fever dream this week as Nebraska travels to cheese land to play the most overrated-but-still-somewhat-good Wisconsin. Every. Single. Year. Since the Big Ten Championship Game, I've wanted Nebraska to beat Wisconsin's ass so badly because of how overrated they are and a team like that shouldn't be losing to Nebraska (when they were at least a respectable 9-win team). And every year that never happens. Obviously, deep deep down, I want that to hold true, but this year I know it's going to be a bloodbath. Yay. Any silver linings? Perhaps. If the defense wakes up and provides some pressure, juuuuuust maybe we can get around the fact that Jonathan Taylor will run for another rushing record. And the offense could be clicking. This is still a Wisconsin defense, but probably not one of the better defenses they've fielded. The Michigan defense should still be the toughest defense Nebraska plays this year, and the offense might have finally turned a page. Again, it was only against Purdue, but the quicker Nebraska can get rid of the toxic penalties, maybe, just maybe, they can beat the 17-point spread.

Nebraska O vs. Wisconsin D: Edge Wisconsin. Expect some breakthroughs here and there, but I still don't foresee that Nebraska will be firing on all cylinders for no more than a few touchdown drives against this modest defense.

Nebraska D vs. Wisconsin O: Edge Wisconsin. The good news is that Hornibrook still sucks. The bad news is, Wisconsin finally realized this and is going mostly run heavy this year. If Nebraska stuffs the run and doesn't get a penalty for it, then maybe there is a light at the end of this tunnel.

Special Teams: Well. That's one way to not put Lindsey back to return punts...RIP. But look what happens when JD does it!

Prediction: Things are coming together at Nebraska very slowly. A lot of people are still citing that if the Akron game was played this year, Nebraska would be looking at 4-1 because they would have ironed out all of their kinks against Akron. At the same time, we've been saying that for weeks and Nebraska continues to make those same mistakes. I personally think the Purdue game was a turning point, and Wisconsin will be a great test to see if the message was received or not. Now excuse me while I go watch Kenny Bell's block for the rest of the night.

Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 17

(source: Journal Star)


The Rest of the World in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Based off of the rankings, the model went 44-14 last week across all FBS games.

1) Alabama (-)
2) Appalachian State (+4)
3) Central Florida (+2)
4) Ohio State (-2)
5) Georgia (+2)
6) Penn State (-3)
7) Miami (+8)
8) Fresno State (+2)
9) Utah State (+3)
10) North Texas (-6)
11) Cincinnati (+13)
12) Oklahoma (+7)
13) West Virginia (-4)
14) Syracuse (-6)
15) Oregon (+8)
16) Michigan (-5)
17) Colorado (+3)
18) Boise State (+4)
19) Houston (New)
20) Florida (-4)
21) Auburn (+4)
22) Oklahoma State (New)
23) Clemson (-5)
24) Kentucky (New)
25) LSU (New)
...
32) Wisconsin
...
123) Nebraska (-1)
...
126) Rutgers (+2)
127) UCLA (New)
128) New Mexico State (+1)
129) Bowling Green (New)
130) UConn (-)

And yes, don't ask how a 1 win Rutgers is still behind a winless Nebraska. Clearly we're looking at potential and I'd still take Nebraska over Rutgers 10 times out of 10. I'm also not going to sit here and pretend that App St almost beat Penn State earlier this year.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 LSU - Back to Being Watched. I think there's still a great shot that 3 SEC teams will make the playoff, and LSU has to be one of the 3 for the play to work. I still haven't 100% seen that they are the real deal however. They play Florida in what should be a manageable game.

#8 Auburn - Still Being Watched. They kept it close against Southern Miss, what? They play Mississippi State in what could be an upset alert game.

#10 Washington - Still Being Watched. There are literally no reads on this team but they might just wind up winning the Pac-12 because of it. Nothing flashy, but nothing stupid. They play UCLA tomorrow, thankfully Nebraska will still not be alone as a winless team.

Teams that have proven their worth: #6 Notre Dame, #13 Kentucky
Teams that have been exposed and are low key being watched: #14 Stanford

Hot Take Central (Successful Conversions: 1. Cold Takes: 1):

-Nebraska and UCLA remain the only winless Power 5 teams and it'll probably stay that way next week.

-Still waiting on the fake from Nebraska.

-Still early for conference championship stuff, but things could get interesting

-We are on a crash course for 3 SEC teams into the playoffs because Georgia and Alabama don't play each other in the regular season. Which means, that if the loser of Bama/LSU remains at one loss, and Georgia and the winner remain undefeated going into the championship game, then you have an easy undefeated SEC champ, and two 1-loss SEC teams. Good luck trying to convince them otherwise.

-Wisconsin is the best team in probably one of the weakest conferences in the nation wtf

Prediction Center:

A second consecutive undefeated week at 6-0 gets us back to what we're used to seeing here at 11-5. So close to hitting the upset alert last week, but we'll drop to 1-3 there.

#19 Texas vs. #7 Oklahoma - Oklahoma 45, Texas 31

Texas is not back and never will be back. But somehow this game brings out the best in them. Football is whack yo.

#5 LSU @ #22 Florida - LSU 24, Florida 10

Now would be a great game to show that you're not a pushover LSU. A good result against this great defense and I'll stop calling you overrated.

#6 Notre Dame @ #24 Virginia Tech - Notre Dame 31, VT 20

Funny enough, both teams are using their second QB of the year, one happens to actually be pretty good while the other is the backup for a reason. I'll let you figure whos who.

Upset Alert: #8 Auburn @ Mississippi State - Miss St has shown flashes of confidence whereas we're still trying to figure out Auburn. Add in a home game with cowbells and you got yourself a recipe for an upset.