Sweet Madness

One of the things I love about March Madness is that no matter how you go about it, no one will ever know what is going to happen. You might be looking good after the first day by going 14-2, then Virginia gets blindsided by a 16 seed. Two more of  your Final Four teams proceed to lose the next day, and suddenly you just want UMBC to run the table. Oh, just me? Ok then.

This year I finally did try my hand at an analytical approach, and for the moment, those brackets are in much better shape than my personal modifications (which we'll get to later). I ran three different analysis using a regression formula: Round by Round score, Best "Champion" score, and the average of the Round by Round (this one is sucking so I won't go into too much detail, but it is self explanatory)

The Round by Round score was the result of 6 regression formulas, one for how likely the team was to win that corresponding round, meaning the first formula was how likely a team was going to win their first round game, the second formula was how likely they would win their second round game (provided they won their first round) and so on and so forth all the way up to 6, which is the number of wins you need to be the champion. For example; Kansas vs. Penn and Rhode Island vs. Oklahoma: Kansas came up with a first round score of 1.12 while Penn had -3.11. Rhode Island had a -1.42 while Oklahoma had a staggering -3.84 *cough cough*. Naturally, both Kansas and RI were selected as winners (and they won yay). But, lets say it was Kansas vs. Rhode Island and Oklahoma vs. Penn in the first round; Kansas still has the advantage over Rhode Island's score, but here we would be favoring Penn over Oklahoma (although not by much). For the second round though, we would then look at their second round scores. So using this example again (since it is what happened); Kansas vs. Seton Hall and Duke vs. Rhode Island: Kansas's second round score was a -.49, compared to Seton Hall's -6.799. For Duke and RI; Duke had a second round score of -2.696, while RI had a -7.54. Again, had we had the matchups swapped, Kansas would still be winning, whereas Seton Hall would get the advantage on Rhode Island in that instance.

Does this lead to some skewed results? Sure. It hella depends on who you draw as a matchup. Personally I would think Oklahoma wouldn't be bad enough to lose to Penn, but the world will never know. To rectify any potential skewness of the "depends on the matchup" theory, this lead me to create the Best "Champion" score bracket, which was derived by solely taking the best score from Formula 6 and working my way through the bracket in reverse, starting with who was most likely to win it all. So here, spoiler alert, Villanova was the overall favorite, so I dragged them to the championship immediately, regardless of who they played. Then working down the list, we get North Carolina as the second favorite (RIP). Since they do not play Villanova until the Finals, UNC got a free ride there (whoops). Michigan ended up being 3rd, but what stunk for them was that they would've had to face UNC in the Sweet 16. And since UNC already had scored higher, we would chop Michigan's trip up early. This hurts the bracket, but we might have a new finals favorite behind Villanova now.

And to those Nebrasketballers that are curious: In the Round by Round, Nebraska comes in as the 57th most likely team to win their first round with a -2.299. And they came 104th most likely to win it all. Both scores were still behind Mississippi State. Just sayin.

Anyway let us dive into how these brackets are actually doing compared to mine and let's see if we can predict the Sweet 16 onward!

(Source: TheNation.com)


To start with, we'll look at my bracket, which is a humanly modified version of the Round by Round bracket. Aka, I just couldn't stand taking Tennessee into the Sweet 16. And I was right!

Current Score: 420. Remaining: 720

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 9/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Arizona, Cincinnati, Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State and New Mexico State)

Elite 8 Teams left: 4/8 (Villanova, Purdue, Gonzaga, Kansas)

Final Four Teams left: 1 (Villanova)

Champion alive?: Yes, Villanova.

I'd like to think my bracket was on the traditional chalky path. The only bold picks I had was Loyola and New Mexico State going into the Sweet 16 and we at least split that difference. The East is still near perfect, but it's a dumpster fire outside of that. And even then, Villanova has a tough task ahead to get to the Final Four by having to get through a rowdy West Virginia team as well as *cough Purdue cough* albeit they're injured. The fact that they're my last hope is sad though, as I don't really like Villanova.

Round by Round Bracket:

Current Score: 400. Remaining: 1120

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 8/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Arizona, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Xavier, North Carolina, Michigan State and New Mexico State)

Elite 8 Teams left: 6/8 (Villanova, Purdue, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Duke)

Final Four Teams left: 3 (Villanova, Michigan, Kansas)

Champion alive?: Yes, Michigan

As mentioned above, my actual bracket was pretty much a copy from this one with the only change being Loyola over Tennessee before the Sweet 16. Where my computer decided to slap me in the face was what happens beyond the Sweet 16. Much like the rest of the world, the South Region is completely fucked over. The biggest difference that this bracket decided to take on that I might lose sleep over because I struggled with this decision personally, was the predicted Michigan vs. UNC matchup in the Sweet 16. The computer picked Michigan as the slight favorite, and while I cannot deny that Michigan is always hot late, I also cannot deny past results, which had UNC slaughtering Michigan earlier in the year. The world will never know due to the upset of North Carolina, and now Michigan has a fairly safe ride into the Elite 8, where they could match up better against a weaker-than-usual Gonzaga team (most likely), or get lucky and pull Florida State.

Best "Champion" Bracket:

Current Score: 440. Remaining: 960

Teams picked in the Sweet 16: 10/16 (Missed on: Virginia, Tennessee, Xavier, South Dakota State (lol), North Carolina and Auburn)

Elite 8 Teams left: 6/8 (Kentucky, Nevada, Villanova, Purdue, Kansas, Duke)

Final Four Teams left: 3 (Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas)

Champion alive?: Yes, Villanova

Right now in the best position potentially, and probably one of the only brackets that lucked out on what happened in the South. Call it crazy stupid luck or call it science, but it actually has Kentucky and Nevada meeting in the Elite 8 (Kentucky over Virginia and Nevada both on Cincy and Tennessee). We can easily argue that both Kentucky and Nevada has significantly easier games to reach the Elite 8. Unfortunately, where there are wins, there are losses, and the loss came in the mighty West, because for whatever reason the model loved South Dakota State to go on a run. Additionally with this bracket, the East region is perfect. The Syracuse over Michigan State upset was also predicted in this bracket, and as such, we have an early favorite when it comes down to predicting March Madness.

But with the new results, let's see how each would have done if we reset everything to the current Sweet 16, eh?

Round by Round (so Sweet 16 would be Round 3):

Kentucky over Kansas State
Nevada over Loyola
Villanova over West Virginia
Purdue over Texas Tech
Gonzaga over Florida State
Michigan over Texas A&M
Duke over Syracuse
Kansas over Clemson

Elite 8 (Round 4):

Kentucky over Nevada
Villanova over Purdue
Michigan over Gonzaga
Kansas over Duke

Final Four (Round 5): Actually after re-reading my sheet I realized I made a mistake in my bracket, I should have had Kansas beating Villanova anyway, whoops.

Michigan over Kentucky
Kansas over Villanova

Finals: Michigan over Kansas


Best "Champion" Bracket:

Sweet 16:

Kentucky over Kansas State
Nevada over Loyola
Villanova over West Virginia
Purdue over Texas Tech
Gonzaga over Florida State
Michigan over Texas A&M
Duke over Syracuse (barely)
Kansas over Clemson

Elite 8:

Kentucky over Nevada
Villanova over Purdue
Michigan over Gonzaga
Kansas over Duke

Final Four:

Michigan over Kentucky
Villanova over Kansas

Finals: Villanova over Michigan

So it is looking like both models are going about a similar path, with the only difference being Villanova beating Kansas and winning it all, instead of Michigan beating Kansas. Either way, it is looking like Michigan is in good favor after North Carolina's early exit. Only time will tell as we still have two more fantastic weekends of this tournament! (And more time for my actual bracket to burn in flames and hope that I score the "lucky" 50th  place prize in my work pool. Which is not last!)

The Perfect Playoff Doesn't Exist

Season Recap and Going Bowling:

Two years ago when I launched this public project, I went ahead and did bowl predictions for every single damn bowl game, both for me and for my computer. I didn't do it last year and thought about making that public this year but due to time, decided nah fam. This year for my bowl picks, I've exclusively went with just my regression model from this year (meaning zero input from me no matter what), which is good and bad. We are currently standing at 19-15, which is already one win better than what my computer model had two years ago (didn't track last year), so it seems we have a slight model improvement with the change in formula. But at the same time we're still shooting a measly 55%. Unfortunately, we hit 3 of those losses in one, very sad day where each of those three games came down to the final possession. But whatever, let's break this down a bit.

So again the regression model I used is only tracking how many wins a team should be getting based on the numbers they are putting up. This is a good measurement to track what a team is capable of long term, but we need to consider other factors such as potential schedule (see Central Florida). This is also a bad thing, as a long term forecast will not do a great job of short-term forecasting in the event of injuries, inactives, weather, etc. Which is why I'm bummed at myself for not doing a better job of tracking games as the season progressed. However, I will say that when you retroactively apply the final standings in the regression model to the entire season, we're getting about 80% accuracy in all of the 1000 some games played (which is how I determined the bowl picks). Not bad. But again, not great when what we're trying to accomplish is a perfect predicting machine, especially if you're trying to do it in the moment. (perfection is impossible, but we can get damn close to it right?)

Which is why I'm happy and sad at our current 19-15 bowl record. This model is not the greatest at predicting short term outcomes (or being fed off-the-field information), so we either need to make further adjustments, or use some human information when making these picks. But why I am happy, is that we've only had a handful of bad misses (6 out of 15. Compared to two years ago we ended up with a total of 11 bad misses. Mind you we still have a handful of games to go. A bad miss being defined as a pick losing by 14+ points), 2 of our losses could have been prevented with some information (Oregon not having Royce Freeman, and Northern Illinois not having their starting QB). The rest of the losses have been by one possession, which is frustrating because we could be looking at a 26-8 record if those broke that way (one can argue that the one possession wins could have also broke for losses, you hush with that. Positive vibes only). Next year I would like to do a better job of keeping track of this model as it runs through the season (again we'd probably have to start at around Week 3 in order to have a large enough sample size for the standings to reflect properly), and I would like to also compare it to the model I used to run, which in my opinion, did a better job of predicting on a game by game status. But that is also the beauty of bowl games, random shit happens because different teams have different motivations, and we are likely to see some random upsets.

Either way I'm still somehow in the top 20% of the nation for bowl picks, so we take those?

We're Talking Playoffs?:

Anyway, the real reason for this post is that the 4th year of the College Football Playoff is upon us, and every year it is the same shit about which teams should be in it or not. My immediate answer to this is "Stfu, no matter how you do it, some team is going to be pissed off". In the BCS era, it was the top 2, with #3 getting left out. In this era, we have top 4 with #5 getting left out. So I asked myself, is there possibly a way to satisfy top teams without diluting the privilege of playing for the national championship? Let's look.

Hypothetical Situation #1: So this year; we have Clemson (ACC Champ), Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ), Georgia (SEC Champ), and Alabama (SEC at-large), leaving out Ohio State (Big 10 Champ). So let's say we expand to 8 teams: Hypothetically this year, we might've seen:

The above five
Auburn (SEC runner-up)
Wisconsin (Big Ten runner-up)
and either USC (Pac-12 Champ) or Miami (ACC runner-up)

So that last point right there already brings up one problem. We still have a fight for that 8th spot just in that hypothetical situation alone. In my personal opinion, I think both teams suck and shouldn't be in, but if we need 8 teams, we need 8 teams. Who should it be? And what about Central Florida? Even at 8 teams, they're still getting snubbed (again if I had it my way, it would probably be UCF over both USC and Miami, but I never hold the popular opinion).

Hypothetical Situation #2: So let's try to get UCF into the playoffs. What about 16 teams? That's a nice even number:

The above nine
Central Florida (Undefeated, AAC Champ)
Penn State (Big Ten at-large)
Washington (Pac-12 at-large)
TCU (Big 12 runner-up)
Notre Dame
Stanford (Pac-12 runner-up)
???

So now we have a similar, but still new, problem. Who should the 16th team be? We have a lot to choose from, and to be honest, I think it's a stretch having even Stanford in, but again we need to fill spots and I think a conference runner-up should be in (this is implying Washington is better than Stanford and don't tell me otherwise. Or show me the score of that game). You can already see that we're diluting the national championship by giving these conference runner-ups and at-larges the chance. What if by some magic a 9-win Stanford team runs the table to win it all? What the fuck is what I would be thinking. And then even still, we need to fill that 16th spot. Memphis, Boise State, Troy, South Florida, and Toledo are the only other teams with 10 wins not mentioned, and if we inserted a generic 9-win team (let's say Michigan State because they are ranked 16th), then that opens up the can of worms of deciding who is truly the best 9-win team in the nation. We'd need our own damn playoff to figure that one out.

Hypothetical Situation #3: So let's try the the basketball approach. Good ol' March Madness has a nice system of giving every conference winner an automatic bid to the tournament, but shit even at 68 teams we're still throwing bitch fits about why #69, 70, 71, or 72 didn't get in. But for the sake of argument and curiosity, here is my proposed "Champs first" 16 team playoff:

Clemson (ACC)
Oklahoma (Big 12)
Georgia (SEC)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
USC (Pac-12)
Central Florida (AAC)
Florida Atlantic (C-USA)
Toledo (MAC)
Boise State (Mountain West)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Alabama, Auburn, Wisconsin, Penn State, Miami, TCU (runner-ups/at-larges)

In this instance, we are replacing Washington, Notre Dame, Stanford and whoever our 16th mystery team from above, with conference champions (FAU, Toledo, Boise, and Troy). Now again, this seems like it would work out, but is that fair to the above teams to be left out? And who gets to decide what? Penn State has the same status as Washington being an at-large team, why did I arbitrarily put them in instead (in a world where the Fiesta Bowl hasn't happened yet)? Do we really want to give these other four minor conference champions a chance even though they didn't even go undefeated (much less in their own conference)? In my opinion, this becomes the closest solution as we are respecting conference champions as a whole, but we are indeed allowing some lesser teams have a shot, at the sacrifice of a team that could probably beat them, and still asking ourselves the question, whom of the at-larges, should truly be in the playoff?

Bottom line, no matter how you stack it up, unless our society as a whole is ok with letting some lesser teams have a shot like the basketball tournament, we just need to suck it up. Someone is not going to be happy. An 8-team playoff could work, barring we don't have any Central Floridas. But we still struggle with trying to find out who that 8th team would be without the #9 team getting all pissy. 16 teams does sound like a lot, but the NCAA loves their money so they probably wouldn't be against it, but that is allowing a lot of teams that may be undeserving a shot at the title, despite being conference champions. But boy it would be funny if Troy beat Alabama too.

Anything more than 16 teams is just getting out of hand so don't even go there.

The Good, The Bad, The Frosty

Recap:

Once again, I don't think we need to get into too much detail here. We knew what we were in for and it mostly played out as planned. The effort towards the end was appreciative to deny the 27 point spread, but we all know that was just a myth and Nebraska got demolished by one of the best teams in the conference.

Oh well. That's not what I'm really going to talk about today. Today, we are still dealing with the rumors that Scott Frost will be the next coach, as every sign is pointing to today's game as Mike Riley's last game for sure. Whether or not Frost will actually be the guy is to be determined. So we're going to do a quick dissection of whether or not Frost truly is Nebraska's golden boy and eventual savior.

The Good:

Two years removed from the end of the Blake Bortles era, going 12-1 and winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2013, Central Florida winds up an astonishing 0-12 in 2015. They then bring in the Great Scott, and last year (2016) wind up 6-7, losing in their bowl game, but at least they made it, right? This year, in only his second season, Scotty has the Knights lined up for an undefeated season. That kind of turn around is astonishing to go from 0-12 to 12-0 in two years, regardless what team it is. Frost's previous experience on Oregon's offensive staff is paying dividends this year as the Knights lead the nation in PPG, a full 3 points in front of the second team (Oklahoma State). But what some might not know is that Frost also spent time as defensive coordinator for Northern Iowa, where he took that team to a top 10 defensive season in the FCS. Not as shining as the offense this year, but the Knights come into their season finale with the 28th best defense, which is still very good.

The Bad:

We still need to remind ourselves however that Central Florida is a G5 school playing in the American conference. While a turn around like above is impressive, it is vastly easier to do it at a G5 school than a P5 school. If Frost becomes the coach at Nebraska, fans need to be fully prepared that the results will not be the same. But damnit he'll be treated like an even bigger legend if he does. But again, the numbers that have been brought up, especially this season, are a bit exaggerated. The toughest game Central Florida has played talent wise was against Memphis (who they will rematch as long as they beat South Florida on Friday) and they whipped them 40-13. Score wise, their closest game was only a touchdown victory on the road at SMU (31-24). And all of this COMPLETELY gets thrown under the bus if Central Florida loses to South Florida, who will DEFINITELY be their hardest game of the season (but a good one nonetheless!). Now I'm not saying if they lose then Nebraska suddenly doesn't deserve Frost (even though I'm betting a lot of fans will have that view), the good still speaks up for that.

The Frosty:

G5 coaches who have SUDDEN miracle seasons and jump ship for that shiny P5 job don't exactly pan out as well as they'd like. Jim McElwain got some momentum going at Colorado State for 3 seasons then BOOM, hired by Florida, has one great year, but then falls off the face of the earth and gets fired halfway through this season. Kevin Sumlin is another prime example. He actually had some mixed results as Houston's head honcho, but clearly Texas A&M saw something in him. But once Johnny Football left the building, A&M hasn't exactly been relevant since. And even some first timers, PJ Fleck after nearly running the table with Western Michigan last year, off to a mixed start at Minnesota this year. Similarly, Jeff Brohm jumped to Purdue after only a few seasons of victories at Western Kentucky. And one more, Matt Rhule decided that instead of building a potential dynasty at Temple, he wanted to inherit the mess at Baylor.

One more fun example in a different light is Charlie Strong. Did pretty good at Louisville, went on to STINK at Texas, but now he's lighting it up with South Florida this year. All I'm saying is, maybe there are just some coaches who can coach in the G5 and aren't meant for a P5 school.

I just want Nebraska to make the right call here when there are other equally qualified (or better) coaches with all of this supposed "fuck you" money we have laying around.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Anyway. Football this week. Iowa. Ugh. Did you know Nebraska actually still has a chance to become bowl eligible thanks to this APR fuckery they invented a few years back (Academic Progress Rating)? Oh yeah, it's going to take an early Christmas miracle, but here is what needs to happen:

First and foremost Nebraska needs to beat Iowa. The rest doesn't matter if that doesn't happen. THEN:

A bunch of teams that are 5-6 need to lose, I didn't bother looking ALL of them up (as I recently discovered my initial list I made below wasn't entirely accurate) and then on top of that, to win tiebreakers:
Air Force loses to Utah State
Vanderbilt loses to Tennessee (shit)
Maryland loses to Penn State
Middle Tennessee beats Old Dominion
Utah beats Colorado
Indiana beats Purdue
Florida loses to Florida State

This happens because the NCAA likes their money too much and created too many bowl games thus allowing 5-7 teams to sneak into bowl games thanks to good grades. Exactly what happened in 2015, except this year it seems Nebraska's grades has slipped in the past two years. Stay in school kids.

And honestly, outside of them needing to actually beat Iowa and hoping Tennessee pulls their shit together enough to get a win, that list doesn't seem too daunting. It's just that if even one of those goes the other way, then Nebraska doesn't get in as Nebraska is about 12th in the APR rankings. Basically if the end result is opposite of what I posted above, then that team gets the spot instead (in order of appearance). I.e, if Air Force wins, Air Force becomes the first 5-7 team in line for a bowl bid as they are #1 in APR. And for the wins, if Utah loses to Colorado, Colorado becomes bowl eligible naturally at 6-6, but Utah would drop to 5-7 and would then "advance" on APR. Utah would need to win so they can get the natural 6-6 bid and Nebraska would then be able to beat Colorado on APR.

Again though, this doesn't happen if Nebraska doesn't win, which we all know has been an interesting task all year. It doesn't get any less interesting today. This is a balanced Iowa team, that much like Northwestern, isn't exactly scary, but plays very balanced. And I guess they DID hang 55 on Ohio State.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Iowa D: Edge Iowa. Iowa always plays pretty decent defense. Nothing too scary, but again, when the offense looks like Nebraska's, a mediocre defense looks like the Great Wall

Nebraska D vs. Iowa O: Edge Iowa. CAN WE HIRE SOMEONE THAT CAN TEACH TACKLING PLEASE

Special Teams: Not very special.

Prediction: Again. I really do want Nebraska to do well, but I just know that isn't happening. I'll still root and cheer, but for the sake of my sanity (and the rest of the state), I think everyone just wants off this ride. This is on target to be worse than the C-word years as even he didn't manage to fuck up enough to only garner 4 wins on a season. When you have a 9-win roster and schedule, the expectation is to at least get close to that, not halve it. Nebraska, it is time for a change. And please don't hire another losing coach.

Iowa 27, Nebraska 21

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

1) Alabama (Up 1)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Ohio State (Up 3)
4) Wisconsin (Down 1)
5) Washington (Down 1)
6) Auburn (Up 1)
7) Penn State (Down 2)
8) Georgia (-)
9) Clemson (Up 5)
10) Oklahoma (Down 1)
11) TCU (-)
12) Florida Atlantic (Up 3)
13) South Florida (Down 3)
14) Miami (Up 5)
15) Ohio (Down 3)
16) Notre Dame (Up 1)
17) Oklahoma State (Down 1)
18) Virginia Tech (Up 1)
19) Arkansas State (Up 1)
20) Boise State (Up 2)
21) Arizona (Down 8)
22) Toledo (New)
23) Memphis (New)
24) San Diego State (New)
25) Stanford (Down 4)
...
54) Iowa
...
107) Nebraska (Up 1)
...
126) Kent State (New)
127) Ball State (Up 1)
128) Kansas (Down 1)
129) UTEP (-)
130) San Jose State (-)

Should these rankings be reflective, here would be the potential championship games...one week before they actually happen:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (clinched) (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (confirmed matchup)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona USC (clinched) (North vs. South)
ACC: Clemson vs. Miami (confirmed matchup)
Big XII: Oklahoma (clinched) vs. TCU (Top 2)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

Clinching scenarios this week:

SEC: Winner of Alabama vs. Auburn will play Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Pac-12: If Washington State beats Washington, they will play USC in the Pac-12 championship game. However if they lose, it will actually be Stanford who gets in, as they hold the head-to-head on Washington, but not Washington State.

Big XII: If TCU beats Baylor, they are in to play Oklahoma in the championship game. If they lose, shit gets interesting, but their odds are good either way. Less bueno if Iowa State beats Kansas State.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5. Wisconsin - Still Being Watched. I accept the fact that they are not going to lose to Minnesota, but they are still not that spectacular.

#6. Auburn - Still Being Watched. Definitely too high for a 2 loss team and I'll lose my shit if they run the table. But at the same time semi deserving as they have to get through Alabama this week.

#11. USC - Still Being Watched. The benefactor of the mediocrity that is the Pac-12. They actually do not play until the Pac-12 championship game, lucky for them.

#13. Washington State - Being Watched. Again, the Pac-12 is mediocre and it is unfortunate that the best team (Washington) cannot be represented in the championship game. But the Cougars can at least be of semi service and win so Stanford can't get in.

#14. Mississippi State - Ha Ha. Conveniently they lost earlier in the night that I was typing this up. So justice has been served! (Even though their QB got injured and that probably has more to do with the loss more than anything buuuuttttt I drunkenly digress)

Prediction Center:

Last week we slated a nice 2-0 to bring us up to 24-12-2. This week is rivalry week, so not only will we be predicting ranked v ranked games, but also any other rivalry games of interest!

The War on I-4: South Florida @ Central Florida - UCF 38, USF 24

This was on track to be the biggest G5 game of the year, but then South Florida just had to lose to Houston to deny the undefeated War on I-4. This still chalks up as Central Florida's toughest game for their own personal quest of an undefeated season, but I still believe that Scotty has them on the right track for a quality New Years Six bowl game.

The Commonwealth Clash: Virginia Tech @ Virginia - Tech 34, Not Tech 27

Somehow Virginia has scrapped together a decent season and VT has been skidding lately. Nonetheless, Tech is still overall the better team and should have no issues dealing with their in-state rival. BUT, if Virginia wins, they will end up with the same conference record as Tech, how bout dat?

The Game: Ohio State @ Michigan - Ohio State 38, Michigan 10

Michigan's offense is officially obsolete, they can only hope to contain the Buckeyes with their defense.

The Sunshine Showdown: Florida State @ Florida - FSU 31, Florida 17

Much like in the fashion of Michigan, Florida's offense has left the building. Unlike Michigan, so has their defense. Florida's saving grace this week is that they don't play Ohio State, but instead FSU who has seemingly lost their ways this season. But they're competent at least.

The Iron Bowl: Alabama @ Auburn - Alabama 24, Auburn 17

Game of the week and probably the season as this one will determine who plays in the SEC championship game. The last time the stakes were this high playing in Auburn...the Kick Six happened. The toughest foe Alabama has faced, but still should be overwhelming enough to beat Auburn's near non-existent offense

The Shitty Battle for Tennessee: Vanderbilt @ Tennessee - Vandy 24, Tenn 20

Please note I made that name up as there isn't an official name. But when you got two 4-7, 0-7 teams going against each other, it is hard not to name it that. We all know how much I make fun of Tennessee, and Vanderbilt has been really trying to put the pieces together for a decent season but can't quite make it work. What is nice, is that one of these teams will walk away with one SEC win! Woohoo! Unfortunately for Nebraska, this is one of the key games that actually needs to go in Tennessee's favor if Nebraska wants to go bowling. But as I said earlier, that dream is a long shot.

The Civil War: Oregon State @ Oregon - Oregon 56, Oregon State 17

Yikes. Looks like the Beavers haven't fared as well either without Mike Riley.

The Palmetto Series: Clemson @ South Carolina - Clemson 31, SCAR 24

This will serve as a nice tune up for Clemson before their ACC championship game. South Carolina has put together a very good season and is very capable to give Clemson a run for their money at home, so the question does stand; how good is Clemson? Or better yet, how good was South Carolina really?

Notre Dame @ Stanford (No funny name, but a ranked v ranked) - Notre Dame 35, Stanford 20

Stanford isn't very good yet here they are with the possibility of going to the Pac-12 championship game regardless of the beatdown they are about to receive from Notre Dame. Sigh Pac-12, sigh.

The Apple Cup: Washington State @ Washington - Washington 35, Wazzu 24

Another rivalry that had hopes of being an undefeated matchup midway through the season. It still carries some high stakes for the Pac-12 North, just not as much and probably not as the teams would like it. If Wazzu wins, they go. If Washington wins, then Stanford goes. How silly is that? Unfortunately to my dismay, Washington has been the better, more consistent team that can find ways to shut down Wazzu. And they're at "home".

Nebraska's Pennding Fate (vs. Penn State)

Recap:

Well it's been a hot minute, but we have internet now (woohoo!) But because of lack of said internet, I was unable to watch a majority of last week's game until the fourth quarter, when the damage was already done.

How in the flying fuck do we let Minnesota, one of the more incompetent offensive teams this year, hang 54 on us? From what I was able to see, it looks like their coveted rush defense does not exist anymore. Who knew the 3-4 defense was secret code for Nebraska's Big Ten record, sheesh. This is a 9-win caliber team and schedule, yet here they are pretty much locked in at four wins. Yep, you heard that right. No bowling for Nebraska barring some blaze ass "Mike Riley wins one big game a year he shouldn't" special. And it really is time to hit the reset button. The players just look unmotivated, Riley is not doing any better of a job motivating them on the field, and rumors are SWIRLING that Scott Frost is on his way to leave his potential dynasty at Central Florida behind.

As I was getting internet installed at my apartment, I was casually checking the score (along with being berated by my uncle who thinks a 7-game wins projection at the beginning of the year should never change) and I sort of thought to myself. Am I really missing this game? Roughly a year ago almost to this day was my last home game in the student section against Maryland. During and after the game, I wasn't feeling too sentimental about it being my last game (had not hit me yet, among entertaining a friend at the time). Some freshmen around me were getting more sentimental than I was. They still have at least three more years of watching games in the student section I thought to myself, clearly I should have felt something right? The next 365ish days would definitely change my life in more ways than one (shit even the following month was a doozy, again for other reasons). There would be times throughout those days where I'd look back at some of the Nebraska hype videos and get a little emotional that I would never experience anything like the student section again. But even when I went to the Arkansas State game in the "old people" section this year, it didn't feel the same. Not just from a "Yeah these guys aren't as nuts as the students" but more of a "what am I watching?". And through this year, the passion for at least supporting Nebraska has waned a bit, and I feel like I'm not the only one here. So when I see score updates like the Minnesota game, watching the game quickly became more of a "well, it is on..." than a "oh shit it is on I gotta watch it". Obviously I still do this blog because I love college football (and sports) as a whole, but I think its time that Nebraska needs this reset. The Riley experiment failed hard and I hope AD Moos has noticed. Is Scott Frost the answer? Idk maybe. His quick turn around at Central Florida is very impressive to say the least. But we need to remind ourselves, it is still Central Florida. It is much harder to turn around a program like Nebraska that fast, but would definitely prove that Frost is more than capable should that be the case.

The Big Red Breakdown:

All of that being said, 365ish days later, I'm grateful for all of the support I have received, and to the new friends in Omaha where I'll be hosting a watch party at my new place. Why am I torturing myself and my friends to a watch party against Penn State you ask? Well because my place wasn't ready for the Minnesota game, BUT.

You can't say Nebraska is just going to lay down for this one, right? If there is any shred of dignity left in Nebraska football, they'd be wanting to charge into Happy Valley and bring a damn fight, and hopefully not lose by 27 (the current spread). Again, coming into the season, this was the hardest game on the schedule as I fully believed that Penn State is national championship material. Two losses later and they're fighting just to win the Big Ten East. So yeah, a lot is riding on the line for Penn State here as well as they just need to toss Nebraska aside. But damn what if Nebraska won? Wouldn't that just be the greatest thing ever to help completely derail Penn State's season? They tried to do that to Michigan State in 2015, but then they decided to win at Ohio State that year. This year, Penn State is already rocking on the rails, Nebraska has the chance to really put the nail in the coffin.

Will it happen? No. Tanner Lee is concussed and questionable to play, and even if he does he won't be 100%. They still have the shittiest play calling in the land deciding to use Wilbon on 4th downs instead of blowing it up with Ozigbo or McNitt. 3rd and 1? Yeah we'll chuck it deep instead of going for the first down. We have some pretty fast receivers in Pierson-El and Spielman but nah we'll maybe run two sweeps a quarter. And speaking of Spielman, have you seen him return kickoffs? Lets try something and maybe put him to return punts? He's sort of the future right now and Pierson-El has never been the same in returning punts since his injuries.

I haven't even gotten started on Penn State. 4th best defense in the nation that will absolutely feast on a quarterback such as an injured-Tanner or a rookie-Patrick. Accompanied by a top 20 offense featuring one of the best RBs in the nation and a QB I'd take any day of the week to run my offense means that if Minnesota can put up 54, I won't hold my breath for 70. The losses to Ohio State and Michigan State do expose some vulnerability, but those were close losses on the road after all. And again, Penn State does need to play for the Big Ten East, after all.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Penn State D: Advantage Penn. GG Tanner/Patrick.

Nebraska D vs. Penn State O: Advantage Penn. RIP. 3-4 is going to be a 3-5 when Penn State is done.

Special Teams: Not so special.

Prediction: There exists an alternate universe where Nebraska shuts down Saquon and McSorley, either Tanner Lee is better when he's concussed, or Patrick O'Brien is actually really fucking good and should have been played earlier. And somehow in this alternate universe, I have a girlfriend.

Penn State 62, Nebraska 17 (Honestly just covering my expectations, I would hope it is much closer than this otherwise we're going to have to turn this into a drinking game)

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Uhh, due to last week's break, these will reflect changes from last week that I was able to quickly run, so you can do the math where other teams were and what wins/losses affected their rankings:

1) Central Florida (-)
2) Alabama (-)
3) Wisconsin (Up 1)
4) Washington (Up 1)
5) Penn State (Up 1)
6) Ohio State (Up 4)
7) Auburn (Up 2)
8) Georgia (Down 5)
9) Oklahoma (Up 2)
10) South Florida (Up 2)
11) TCU (Down 4)
12) Ohio (Up 2)
13) Arizona (Up 4)
14) Clemson (Up 1)
15) Florida Atlantic (Up 4)
16) Oklahoma State (-)
17) Notre Dame (Down 9)
18) Miami (Up 4)
19) Virginia Tech (Down 6)
20) Arkansas State (Down 2)
21) Stanford (Up 2)
22) Boise State (Down 1)
23) Western Michigan (New)
24) Fresno State (Up 1)
25) Mississippi State (Down 5)
...
108) Nebraska (I didn't keep track what we were before Minnesota, but we were projected for 5 wins. Now we are locked at 4. Aka my model does not think we will win another game)
...
126) East Carolina
127) Kansas
128) Ball State
129) UTEP
130) San Jose State
(Again didn't keep track of the bottom 5. I just know that Ball State is new and Rice escaped)

Now the fun part. Now that we have some locked in championship games, our projections get interesting:

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (clinched) (West vs. East)
B1G: Wisconsin (clinched) vs. Penn State (West vs. East)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona USC (clinched) (North vs. South)
Big XII: Oklahoma vs. TCU (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson (clinched) vs. Miami (clinched) (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

The Pac-12 South is currently the only current miss since my model cannot adjust for clinches.  While it has Arizona as the 13th best team and USC at 32nd, it cannot account for the fact that USC has actually clinched the Pac-12 South. Now this can adjust in one of two ways in the next two weeks: 1) It can adjust in favor of USC actually being a good team and eventually putting them ahead of Arizona. Or 2) Arizona is truly the better team and USC does not deserve its Pac-12 bid. Time will tell I guess.

This week's clinching scenarios:

Big XII: Oklahoma can clinch a spot in the Big XII championship with a win over Kansas (lol). They would be able to clinch the regular season Big XII title with a win AND a West Virginia loss to Texas (Since Oklahoma and West Virginia have not played yet, West Virginia still has a chance to win on the head-to-head)

B1G: Ohio State can clinch the East with a win over Illinois (lol) AND a Michigan loss to Wisconsin (Michigan can still claim the head-to-head over Ohio State)

Pac-12: No one can clinch the North this week since Washington State is on bye. But Washington vs. Washington State will be the decider, in some way.

SEC: No one can clinch the West this week because the SEC likes to schedule cupcakes in the most important time of the football year. But it'll be the winner of Alabama vs. Auburn.

OVER(RATED)WATCH:

Again using the AP poll because f them. And also going back to my list two weeks ago since we didn't have one last week!

#5. Wisconsin - Being Watched. I'm very slowly being content with Wisconsin as a team. But I still think they're prime for an ass kicking somewhere down the line. They play Michigan this week in what will most likely be their toughest test until the championship game.

#6. Auburn - Being Watched. Highest rated 2 loss team. Uhh sure you can have points for beating Georgia, but really what does that say about Georgia and Notre Dame, who also got mauled by Miami? Reason #500 why I hate the SEC is because Auburn is playing Louisiana Monroe as their 11th game of the season this week.

#11. USC - Being Watched Even More. I don't care if yall have clinched the South, yall still aint good. Yall. They play UCLA this week for their finale before the Pac-12 championship game.

#14. Washington State - Being Watched. While they're in control of the Pac-12 North, I'm still not convinced of their legitness. They are on bye this week as they prepare for Washington.

#16. Mississippi State - Being Watched Even More. Uhh really, a 3 loss team? Ok SEC biased AP polls. They play Arkansas this week, so mind as well be a mindless "Traditional 11th game of the SEC schedule"

Proven their worth: #3 Miami
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: NR Iowa State

Prediction Center:

Sadly we took our first losing week in what was the biggest week of the season two weeks ago. We turned in a 3-5 record *cries*, bringing our season record to 22-12-2 (right around .638). Only one game to attempt to bring it back:

Michigan @ Wisconsin - Wisconsin 24, Michigan 20

As much as I've been bashing Wisconsin all year, I can't deny that their defense is scary good. What happens when you have a scary good defense going against an inept offense such as Michigan? Not good results. As long as Wisconsin sticks to running the ball (as I hope they are slowly realizing how much garbage Hornibrook is), they should be good to go for the win, as Michigan too has a pretty good defense.

Vs. Northwestern

Recap:

Who would have thought that Tanner Lee would have actually saved the game. It wasn't exactly an impressive game overall between the two teams (I mean, between the two dumpster fire teams of the Big Ten, what did you expect?) But by all means, we cannot ignore the level of play Tanner has brought to the table. HE HASN'T HAD A PICK IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES LET'S THROW A PARTY!

But seriously. Tanner has greatly improved, it's just very unfortunate that we still get some questionable play calling. If we're barking for coaches' heads to roll, offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf needs to go before Riley does. One thing I was not liking about watching the Purdue game was the way the RBs were being treated. It has been fairly well documented that Nebraska has had better success running the ball when they split the time between Ozigbo and Wilbon featuring Bradley since Bryant has gone down. So clearly when straight up Ozigbo wasn't working, you'd think you'd want to bring in someone else (which EVENTUALLY they did with Bradley in the second half). But ultimately because they tried it too late, they had to pull the running game from the book because Purdue was already stopping it pretty well (again, due to lack of the mix-ups)

Receivers are learning how to not drop a ball so that is also a nice touch. Meanwhile the coveted 3-4 defense isn't exactly holding their end as of late. I know they're a bit depleted on that side of the ball, but let's plug some of those holes a bit better, and please for the love of god learn how to tackle. Getting a last-minute, 1 point win over Purdue isn't exactly something to brag about no matter how decent Purdue has gotten.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Today we see Northwestern come to town. Every year they come ready to play regardless of the season that they've had. And quite frankly, outside of getting murdered by Duke and Penn State, Northwestern has played very well this year keeping it competitive in the Big Ten. Across the board, Northwestern has a very balanced team. Nothing too scary, but also nothing to shy away from other than their competitive play, which should make for an interesting game, as I'm not too sure if Nebraska will have much success poking holes through them. No weaknesses. No big time strengths. Which probably contributes to their 5-3 record. There's nothing wrong with Northwestern, but it's hard to say they're a great team.

If we see the Tanner Lee we've been seeing lately, then I'll have no issues. Unfortunately, we all know that can be a bit of a challenge to hope for something like that.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Northwestern D: Edge Northwestern. One thing about Pat Fitzgerald's teams is that they are always poised on defense and usually turnover generators. Usually doesn't bode well against a turnover prone Tanner Lee. However, if we can get good Tanner to show up, then this shouldn't be as much of an issue

Nebraska D vs. Northwestern O: Edge Nebraska. Again, nothing too special from Northwestern here. They too like to run on the edges and run some sweeps which will most likely cause issues for Nebraska, but nothing they can't overcome. Hopefully.

Special Teams: Please put Spielman to return. Otherwise beware Northwestern's.

Prediction: Another tightly contested game, which should be the theme for these remaining four games except for Penn State (lol). I think Nebraska can afford one or two miscues as Northwestern isn't one of those teams that can easily pile it on, but definitely still a choppy sea to cross if that becomes the case.

Nebraska 27, Northwestern 20

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

We are now seeing some more consistency as well as some separation. There is a 1.5 projected win gap between Alabama and Washington. On top of that, the next big drop off is .5 wins from Georgia down to Wisconsin.

1) Central Florida (Up 1)
2) Alabama (Down 1)
3) Washington (Up 2)
4) Ohio State (Down 1)
5) Penn State (Down 1)
6) Georgia (Up 2)
7) Wisconsin (-)
8) Notre Dame (Up 1)
9) TCU (Down 3)
10) Auburn (Up 2)
11) Virginia Tech (Down 1)
12) Arizona (Up 4)
13) Oklahoma State (-)
14) Oklahoma (Up 1)
15) South Florida (Down 4)
16) Clemson (Down 2)
17) Arkansas State (Up 1)
18) Ohio (Up 1)
19) Florida Atlantic (Up 3)
20) Toledo (New)
21) Stanford (Down 4)
22) UTSA (Up 3)
23) Mississippi State (New)
24) Iowa State (Down 3)
25) Western Michigan (New)
...
64) Northwestern
...
99) Nebraska (Up 1)
...
126) Rice (Up 2)
127) Kansas (-)
128) East Carolina (Down 2)
129) San Jose State (-)
130) UTEP (-)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the championship games!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

SMH of the Week:

Stanford! Congrats on proving to the world yet again that yall cannot operate without a competent running back carrying your team. No Bryce Love meant that yall had to MAKE A COMEBACK to beat Oregon State. By 1. While only putting up 15 points. SMH Stanford

Hero of the Week:

Split honors for Illinois and North Carolina! The shittier teams of their respective conferences properly exposed the most overrated teams in their conferences in Wisconsin and Miami respectively by almost beating them! Illinois kept it low, while Miami, like Stanford, needed to make a comeback against North Carolina. Don't worry, we'll see these other two teams again very shortly. But for now, we recognize the efforts of Illinois and North Carolina

Over(rated)Watch:

 I'm going to continue picking on the AP poll for these rankings as they still don't have a damn clue how to rank teams.

#4 Wisconsin - OVERFUCKINGRATED. SOMEONE PLEASE BEAT THEM. THEY'RE SO CLOSE TO LOSING. BUT THEY'RE AT INDIANA THIS WEEK SO THEY PROBABLY WON'T. On a related note, props to the playoff committee for dropping them to #9. Still too damn high though.

#9 Miami - Overrated AF. Yep. Time to turn in your chains Miami, your pass to the Top 10 club is officially over as yall almost lost to North Carolina, who is easily the worst team in the ACC. Not just that you almost lost, but you needed to comeback to win. You're only allowed so many close wins. You're like the opposite of Wisconsin. Yeah you got a tough schedule, but you're barely surviving it, including against some of the teams you should have zero trouble with. This week they play Virginia Tech in one of the ranked matchups, that should finally shine some light on this situation one way or another.

#14 Iowa State - Being Watched. Once again poll inertia strikes again! Yeah, the nice upset over TCU puts you in a great spot for any impending Big 12 title aspirations as yall now have 2 of the 3 key wins (TCU and Oklahoma. Still need to play Oklahoma State), but can the momentum keep going? What are the Cyclones limits? They get West Virginia on the road this week in what will definitely make for a true legit or nah test.

No teams were removed from the list last week.

Prediction Center:

Bleh. 2-2-1 week. But not a losing week right? Personally I blame Penn State. Anyway, we are now at 19-7-2, so still single digit losses woo! Here's this weeks slate and listen up, there's a lot of them:

Penn State @ Michigan State - Penn State 38, Michigan State 14

Hardly call this a ranked v ranked matchup. Michigan State is having a good year, but you can't imagine how pissed Penn State is for losing last week.

Clemson @ NC State - Clemson 27, NC State 21

One more litmus test for NC State as Clemson comes into town. Unfortunately I think the dream season for the Wolfpack comes to an end here.

Stanford @ Washington State - Wazzu 34, Stanford 24

This should be an interesting game...? Both teams are somewhat reeling from being overrated, but Washington State still has more quality than Stanford will ever have as a team.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State - OK State 41, Sooners 38

Game of the day, and the one that should have the most impact on the Big 12 championship race where the winner should be in, barring Iowa State fuckery. I just think that the Cowboys are the more complete team and the Sooners get exposed too much that OK State should be able to take advantage of. Rivalry games be lit tho yo.

LSU @ Alabama - Alabama 41, LSU 17

LSU is still suffering from being overrated and no one has gotten close to beating Alabama this year.

Virginia Tech @ Miami - VT 27, Miami 20

Here's where Miami should finally get their loss. It'll be a good game, but VT has shown up this year where as Miami hasn't exactly been up to speed since the beginning of the season.

Arizona @ USC - Arizona 41, USC 31

The Arizona hype train is in full speed. Given the inconsistencies of USC, 1) this should be a shootout, and 2) this is where Arizona rightfully claims the Pac-12 South for the name of all that is good and not USC.

Vs. Purdue

The Big Red Breakdown:

We're just jumping right into it this week since we briefly recapped last week and I need to move.

It's a bit past the halfway point and Nebraska is sitting at 3-4 on a road trip to Purdue. Has it been a disappointing year? Maybe. We have expected losses to Oregon and Ohio State, and unfortunate losses to Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. Wisconsin we've touched on multiple times and will continue to touch further later, but the loss to Northern Illinois is looking better (which I know is something we don't want to hear considering it was a home loss after all), but they're in the thick of it for the MAC Championship and on pace for a 10-win season. Quality loss, right?

Anyway. Purdue. This game looked scarier before the season started as they made that splash hire with head coach Jeff Brohm after some successful seasons out of Western Kentucky, and we knew that Purdue was coming in with a moderate offense. So far, they've gone on to prove that this is one of the better Purdue teams we have seen in a long while. They nearly got Louisville in the season opener, dismantled a fairly good Ohio team, kept competitive with Michigan, and exposed Wisconsin by almost beating them on the road. Unfortunately however, they are coming off of a tough loss to Rutgers. The offense has not been firing on all cylinders as it was earlier in the season, but the defense has stepped their game up accordingly, which is something we haven't said about a Purdue team in a while.

Which makes this game interesting. Yeah we're aware of Purdue's offense, but is their defense good enough this year to make a statement at home and take advantage of Tanner Lee? Maybe. They're still miles away from being the best defense, but I would still rate them as a competent defense. The most points they've allowed is 35 to the Lamar Jackson Cardinals, and have only allowed more than 20 points 3 times. They are great at creating turnovers, averaging a bit more than 2 per game, which is good for Top 20 in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, Tann- I mean Nebraska, is averaging just under 2 turnovers a game. Usually stats like that never actually happen, but we can't ignore that the possibility is more than real for this game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Purdue D: Even. Possibly the first time I've ever called something even on this blog. Nebraska has the capabilities to make it rain on offense, yet they don't. Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Purdue has a capable defense, but definitely nothing stands out about them to be super threatening. Basically expect another Tanner Lee Pick Six Spectacular and see whatever else happens and hope for the best

Nebraska D vs. Purdue O: Edge Nebraska. Fortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system because original starter Blough has struggled as of late, and the new guy, Sindelar, isn't doing too hot either. Unfortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system and Nebraska can't defend that to save their ass let alone Blough has dual-threat capabilities, and Nebraska can't defend that either.

Special Teams: I question how if "special" is an accurate word to describe Nebraska's special teams. I really think it's time for Spielman to step up into the returner role.

Prediction: The model likes Purdue in this one, 24-20. With the Vegas line giving Purdue the 4.5 favorite, I can't hate it here either. There is a very real possibility that Nebraska loses to Purdue, but we absolutely cannot accept mediocrity anymore. Yes Purdue is a better team than they used to be, but on paper Nebraska still outclasses them. It's just that someone decided to put a rock on our paper. Once again, I will counter my computer. I got faith in dem bone boys.

Nebraska 25, Purdue 23 (Don't ask, but it'll be close)

I have no idea what is going on in this picture but I love it.


The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

A reminder that this tracks projected potential for wins on a season, not actual quality of a team (but there is a small relation. I.e, given the numbers Alabama has put up, they're having a 14-win season. And by looking at what they have, they're very well on their way)

1) Alabama (Up 1)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Ohio State (Up 1)
4) Penn State (Down 1)
5) Washington (-)
6) TCU (Up 1)
7) Wisconsin (Up 2)
8) Georgia (-)
9) Notre Dame (Up 2)
10) Virginia Tech (Up 6)
11) South Florida (Down 5)
12) Auburn (Up 1)
13) Oklahoma State (Down 3)
14) Clemson (Up 1)
15) Oklahoma (Down 3)
16) Arizona (Down 2)
17) Stanford (Up 1)
18) Arkansas State (New)
19) Ohio (New)
20) Fresno State (Up 5)
21) Iowa State (New)
22) Florida Atlantic (New)
23) North Carolina State (Down 1)
24) Georgia Tech (Down 4)
25) UTSA (Down 4)
26) Miami (Down 2, despite winning, again. Computer might be on to something)
...
60) Purdue
...
100) Nebraska (Up 1. Woo for bye weeks?)
...
126) East Carolina (Up 4, they won another game!)
127) Kansas (Down 1)
128) Rice (-)
129) San Jose State (Down 2)
130) UTEP (Down 1)

If these rankings were reflective, these would be the championship games!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

Again no time for SMH or Heroes! Next week I swear!

Over(rated)Watch:

#5. Wisconsin - Overrated AF! I don't give a fuck if you beat Maryland by one million. The world knows it is only a matter of time before Wisconsin loses. Most likely in embarrassing fashion in the championship game, but then again, that could be Wisconsin's only proving ground this season. They're at Illinois this week UGH

#8. Miami - Being Watched. I think Miami is getting away with a few too many now. Yeah, the ACC is pretty deep this year and the fact that they are undefeated is pretty cool, but they are living life on the edge with all of these close wins. For sure a Top 15 team, but I think they've lost their candidacy for being a Top 10 team. They play North Carolina, which they should be able to smoke. But if they don't...

Proven their worth: #9 Notre Dame
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #21 USC

Prediction Center:

Add two more wins to the column! But for the sake of the fact that this week is another split prediction, I will go ahead and pull out the Wisconsin game as a tie. So we are 17-5-1 on the season with the small undefeated week last week. Got a good number of games this week, let's get to it!

Oklahoma State @ West Virginia - OK State 38, West Virginia 28

A good ol fashioned Big 12 shootout. OK State took a small tumble after only posting 13 to beat Texas last week, but they're still in the driver's seat to make the championship game. Meanwhile, this is the best chance for West Virginia to gain some ground in their own fight for the championship. I still think West Virginia is just on that tier below OK State and Oklahoma however.

Penn State @ Ohio State - Penn State 27, Ohio State 20

Game of the day and the one that will decide the Big Ten East. Penn State has all of the confidence in the world after blowing up Michigan's defense last week. Let's remind the folks that Ohio State struggled early in the season, and it'll take a team like Penn State to expose those brilliantly. Again, Penn State has been one of my picks for a national championship, don't let the Horseshoe scare yall.

TCU @ Iowa State - TCU 31, Iowa State 27

Iowa State has been quietly having a good season, especially after knocking off Oklahoma, and truthfully, should have only one loss, maybe undefeated, if they didn't suck it up against Iowa. We're also going to knock points off of the Oklahoma win after their close win over Kansas State. BUT, it's those loses against Iowa and Texas that make Iowa State still vulnerable and probably in that third tier of the Big 12 alongside West Virginia, going against the best team in the conference. Let's also not rule out a possible trap game for TCU going on the road.

North Carolina State @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 35, NC State 24

NC State was very close to making the Over(rated)Watch list this week, but I let them have a pass for now. A game like this could definitely make a statement given the year that they have had thus far. However, we have learned that Notre Dame ain't fucking around this year after obliterating USC (which in turn, also helps Georgia's ranking!)

Bye Week Breakdown

Since Nebraska is on a bye week, we're going to be taking a more in-depth look at the rest of the conferences to see how well they are stacking up as we are roughly at the halfway point of the college football season. But first, we do need to recap Nebraska's last game against Ohio State real quick:

Great! No interceptions though, right?

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Last week's upset bonanza actually didn't hurt these rankings too much. It's almost like they're ignoring poll inertia that the AP voters use, huh.

1) Central Florida (-)
2) Alabama (Up 1)
3) Penn State (Up 1)
4) Ohio State (Up 1)
5) Washington (Down 3)
6) South Florida (Up 2)
7) TCU (-)
8) Georgia (Up 2)
9) Wisconsin (Down 3)
10) Oklahoma State (Up 5)
11) Notre Dame (Up 3)
12) Oklahoma (Down 1)
13) Auburn (Down 4)
14) Arizona (Up 5)
15) Clemson (Down 3)
16) Virginia Tech (Up 5)
17) Texas Tech (Down 4)
18) Stanford (New)
19) West Virginia (Up 6)
20) Georgia Tech (Down 3)
21) UTSA (Down 3)
22) NC State (New)
23) Wake Forest (New)
24) Miami (Down 4)
25) Fresno State (New)
...
101) Nebraska (Down 16)
...
126) Kansas (New)
127) San Jose State (Up 1)
128) Rice (Down 1)
129) UTEP (-)
130) East Carolina (-)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the conference championships!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

But now we need to ask ourselves. Are we on path for something like this to happen for these championship games?

Pac-12:

Projected: Washington vs. Arizona
If Season Ended Today: Stanford vs. USC

My pre-season claim of the Pac-12 Champion having at least 1 loss has now come true with both of the Washington teams losing this past week, which unfortunately, also takes away the glamor of their rivalry game deciding who will be the North representative. But it still could! It is unlikely, but still possible. And that's the downfall of the Pac-12 actually. As seen with the upsets, the Pac-12 holds a lot of parity among themselves where we might just be getting started with the upsets. Stanford has realized they have McCaffrey 2.0 in Bryce Love, but as we've seen, it takes more than just a really good RB to be a good team. Stanford still needs to play both of the Washington teams (in back to back weeks no less), so they could cement their North status one way or another. If they split between them, then the Chaos gods will be smiling upon the Pac-12. The Washingtons meanwhile, need to make sure they don't take another stumble until they play each other at the end of the season. A rivalry game where the winner goes to the championship game will be fun to watch (and we will also see later). It's a bit too late for any other North team to make a case, barring a barrage of upsets.

The South meanwhile, is a crapshoot. USC still has The Darnold, albeit not having a great year as expected, and Arizona seems to have found their magic QB in Khalil Tate. The rest of the conference doesn't suck per se, they're just not fabulous. Which still makes for great TV and upsets across the board. USC and Arizona still need to play each other, so that could most likely decide the South, however Arizona still needs to play Washington State, while USC has already lost to them. Will we have more upsets brewing in the works? I hope so!

Big XII:

Projected: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
If Season Ended Today: TCU vs. Oklahoma?

I think we can all agree, that barring some losses, TCU is safe to be in the championship game as they are the only undefeated left (while yet having to play Oklahoma or Texas). The fight for who the second team will be gets interesting as we currently have 5 2-1 teams vying for that second championship spot. Personally, my vote is on the winner of Bedlam (between the Oklahomas), but we do need to keep in mind that again, Oklahoma and TCU haven't played yet, so that will be a game worth watching depending on how the standings shake out from there. But honestly, outside of TCU and the Oklahomas, I just don't see anyone else stepping up in this conference, or in short, everyone else's defense sucks ass. Texas Tech can maybe play some spoiler, but it'll be tough as they already have two losses with TCU, Oklahoma, AND Texas still on the schedule.

B1G:

Projected: Penn State vs. Wisconsin
If Season Ended Today: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

For as overrated as Wisconsin is, it would still be completely embarrassing (yet hilarious) if they DIDN'T win the West at this point. With Nebraska on bye, Wisconsin effectively has a two game lead in the West if they win this week, and their only tough roadblock is playing a questionable Michigan team in Madison. They have such a cake schedule that they should be able to win the division as every other two loss team still has one more tough game, but they will not be going far in the championship game. The East meanwhile, will be another battle between Ohio State and Penn State ft. Michigan State and Michigan. I still think Penn State is the class of the conference and could very well win the national championship. BUT, Ohio State is getting their shit together after some nice blowouts.

SEC:

Projected: Alabama vs. Georgia
If Season Ended Today: Alabama vs. Georgia

Yikes. The SEC has lost their ways outside of these two teams ft. Auburn. The East could still provide trouble for Georgia, but they seem to be getting their work done this year. The only challenge on their schedule prior to a potential championship date with Alabama, is traveling to Auburn, which if Auburn wins, could make for an interesting Iron Bowl game...

ACC:

Projected: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
If Season Ended Today: NC State vs. Miami

If you thought the Pac-12 had parity, then let me introduce you to the ACC. The NC State/Clemson game might decide the Atlantic, while teams like Syracuse and Wake Forest are also licking their chops at a potential stab at the division (Wake Forest has already lost to the two "good" teams in the ACC, while Syracuse just upset Clemson). THEN, on the other side in the Coastal, we have four teams in contention for that division, between Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. In my personal opinion, Miami should be the team to beat, but my model has been pretty low on them due to their last minute victories. The ACC could very well come down to the last week of the season.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5. Wisconsin - Overrated AF. After being exposed by Northwestern and Nebraska, they should have caught a break by blowing out Purdue at home, right? NOPE. Who the fuck only puts up 17 on Purdue, and gets shutout by them in the second half? It is unfortunate that Wisconsin has such a simple schedule, but that also means everything they have done with success is extremely padded (except their defense, that is legit). It is only a matter of time before someone beats them. They host Maryland this week, so we'll see.

#11. USC - Being Watched. Not so fast Trojans, just because other teams lost doesn't mean you can climb up the rankings without proof...They're at Notre Dame this week, so the proof better be in the pudding (or would it be potatoes for this week?)

#13. Notre Dame - Being Watched. Similarly, that doesn't mean Notre Dame can climb without a free pass too. Beat USC with conviction this week, and I'll take you off.

No team proved their worth last week
Properly taken care of and being low key watched: #15 Washington State, #21 Auburn

Prediction Center:

I hate being right when we lose, but sometimes it happens. 16-5 on the season, and we have a couple games to predict after last weeks blank slate.

Michigan @ Penn State - Penn State 27, Michigan 10

Both teams boast a really good defense, but unfortunately for Michigan, their bed-ridden offense will be devoured by Penn State on the road. The question becomes, how successful can Michigan be in containing McSorley and Barkley?

USC @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 34, USC 24

Battle of the overrated teams! Notre Dame might have some kick behind them with their 1 point loss to Georgia as to being a good team, not much is being spoken of for USC as The Darnold has seemingly lost his Heisman ways. USC doesn't exactly have much of a defense either...