We're just jumping right into it this week since we briefly recapped last week and I need to move.
It's a bit past the halfway point and Nebraska is sitting at 3-4 on a road trip to Purdue. Has it been a disappointing year? Maybe. We have expected losses to Oregon and Ohio State, and unfortunate losses to Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. Wisconsin we've touched on multiple times and will continue to touch further later, but the loss to Northern Illinois is looking better (which I know is something we don't want to hear considering it was a home loss after all), but they're in the thick of it for the MAC Championship and on pace for a 10-win season. Quality loss, right?
Anyway. Purdue. This game looked scarier before the season started as they made that splash hire with head coach Jeff Brohm after some successful seasons out of Western Kentucky, and we knew that Purdue was coming in with a moderate offense. So far, they've gone on to prove that this is one of the better Purdue teams we have seen in a long while. They nearly got Louisville in the season opener, dismantled a fairly good Ohio team, kept competitive with Michigan, and exposed Wisconsin by almost beating them on the road. Unfortunately however, they are coming off of a tough loss to Rutgers. The offense has not been firing on all cylinders as it was earlier in the season, but the defense has stepped their game up accordingly, which is something we haven't said about a Purdue team in a while.
Which makes this game interesting. Yeah we're aware of Purdue's offense, but is their defense good enough this year to make a statement at home and take advantage of Tanner Lee? Maybe. They're still miles away from being the best defense, but I would still rate them as a competent defense. The most points they've allowed is 35 to the Lamar Jackson Cardinals, and have only allowed more than 20 points 3 times. They are great at creating turnovers, averaging a bit more than 2 per game, which is good for Top 20 in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, Tann- I mean Nebraska, is averaging just under 2 turnovers a game. Usually stats like that never actually happen, but we can't ignore that the possibility is more than real for this game.
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs. Purdue D: Even. Possibly the first time I've ever called something even on this blog. Nebraska has the capabilities to make it rain on offense, yet they don't. Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Purdue has a capable defense, but definitely nothing stands out about them to be super threatening. Basically expect another Tanner Lee Pick Six Spectacular and see whatever else happens and hope for the best
Nebraska D vs. Purdue O: Edge Nebraska. Fortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system because original starter Blough has struggled as of late, and the new guy, Sindelar, isn't doing too hot either. Unfortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system and Nebraska can't defend that to save their ass let alone Blough has dual-threat capabilities, and Nebraska can't defend that either.
Special Teams: I question how if "special" is an accurate word to describe Nebraska's special teams. I really think it's time for Spielman to step up into the returner role.
Prediction: The model likes Purdue in this one, 24-20. With the Vegas line giving Purdue the 4.5 favorite, I can't hate it here either. There is a very real possibility that Nebraska loses to Purdue, but we absolutely cannot accept mediocrity anymore. Yes Purdue is a better team than they used to be, but on paper Nebraska still outclasses them. It's just that someone decided to put a rock on our paper. Once again, I will counter my computer. I got faith in dem bone boys.
Nebraska 25, Purdue 23 (Don't ask, but it'll be close)
The Rest of the Week in College Football:
Regression Rankings:
A reminder that this tracks projected potential for wins on a season, not actual quality of a team (but there is a small relation. I.e, given the numbers Alabama has put up, they're having a 14-win season. And by looking at what they have, they're very well on their way)
1) Alabama (Up 1)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Ohio State (Up 1)
4) Penn State (Down 1)
5) Washington (-)
6) TCU (Up 1)
7) Wisconsin (Up 2)
8) Georgia (-)
9) Notre Dame (Up 2)
10) Virginia Tech (Up 6)
11) South Florida (Down 5)
12) Auburn (Up 1)
13) Oklahoma State (Down 3)
14) Clemson (Up 1)
15) Oklahoma (Down 3)
16) Arizona (Down 2)
17) Stanford (Up 1)
18) Arkansas State (New)
19) Ohio (New)
20) Fresno State (Up 5)
21) Iowa State (New)
22) Florida Atlantic (New)
23) North Carolina State (Down 1)
24) Georgia Tech (Down 4)
25) UTSA (Down 4)
26) Miami (Down 2, despite winning, again. Computer might be on to something)
...
60) Purdue
...
100) Nebraska (Up 1. Woo for bye weeks?)
...
126) East Carolina (Up 4, they won another game!)
127) Kansas (Down 1)
128) Rice (-)
129) San Jose State (Down 2)
130) UTEP (Down 1)
If these rankings were reflective, these would be the championship games!
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida
Again no time for SMH or Heroes! Next week I swear!
Over(rated)Watch:
#5. Wisconsin - Overrated AF! I don't give a fuck if you beat Maryland by one million. The world knows it is only a matter of time before Wisconsin loses. Most likely in embarrassing fashion in the championship game, but then again, that could be Wisconsin's only proving ground this season. They're at Illinois this week UGH
#8. Miami - Being Watched. I think Miami is getting away with a few too many now. Yeah, the ACC is pretty deep this year and the fact that they are undefeated is pretty cool, but they are living life on the edge with all of these close wins. For sure a Top 15 team, but I think they've lost their candidacy for being a Top 10 team. They play North Carolina, which they should be able to smoke. But if they don't...
Proven their worth: #9 Notre Dame
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #21 USC
Prediction Center:
Add two more wins to the column! But for the sake of the fact that this week is another split prediction, I will go ahead and pull out the Wisconsin game as a tie. So we are 17-5-1 on the season with the small undefeated week last week. Got a good number of games this week, let's get to it!
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia - OK State 38, West Virginia 28
A good ol fashioned Big 12 shootout. OK State took a small tumble after only posting 13 to beat Texas last week, but they're still in the driver's seat to make the championship game. Meanwhile, this is the best chance for West Virginia to gain some ground in their own fight for the championship. I still think West Virginia is just on that tier below OK State and Oklahoma however.
Penn State @ Ohio State - Penn State 27, Ohio State 20
Game of the day and the one that will decide the Big Ten East. Penn State has all of the confidence in the world after blowing up Michigan's defense last week. Let's remind the folks that Ohio State struggled early in the season, and it'll take a team like Penn State to expose those brilliantly. Again, Penn State has been one of my picks for a national championship, don't let the Horseshoe scare yall.
TCU @ Iowa State - TCU 31, Iowa State 27
Iowa State has been quietly having a good season, especially after knocking off Oklahoma, and truthfully, should have only one loss, maybe undefeated, if they didn't suck it up against Iowa. We're also going to knock points off of the Oklahoma win after their close win over Kansas State. BUT, it's those loses against Iowa and Texas that make Iowa State still vulnerable and probably in that third tier of the Big 12 alongside West Virginia, going against the best team in the conference. Let's also not rule out a possible trap game for TCU going on the road.
North Carolina State @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 35, NC State 24
NC State was very close to making the Over(rated)Watch list this week, but I let them have a pass for now. A game like this could definitely make a statement given the year that they have had thus far. However, we have learned that Notre Dame ain't fucking around this year after obliterating USC (which in turn, also helps Georgia's ranking!)
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