The Big Twelve...Ten?...XII? Preview

There’s a bit of an identity crisis for the Big XII (minus II) as they have only ten teams and no more conference championship game, which to some critics was the reason why TCU was wrongfully left out of the playoffs last year. Merely because they blew a lead in a shootout with Baylor and ended up as co-champions, despite having one of the more flawless executions during games in the nation. Oh well. That’s just my take on that, I’ll get off my “TCU got screwed” soap box and get back to the matters at hand, and that’s cracking down the Big X this year. Some ADs want to see the return of twelve teams so they can have said championship game so they can have said winner be relevant in the national picutre. My response to that is maybe you should have more relevant teams? The problem with the Big XII-2 is that there is a hierarchy (as I’ll explain below) but any disruption of the hierarchy (*cough upsets cough*) would spoil any long-lasting post season play for the teams at the top. And in a conference like this where defense doesn’t really exist outside of TCU, it can, and will, happen. So let’s get to it:

Last Year’s Standings:

1) Baylor 11-2, 8-1

2) TCU 12-1, 8-1 

3) Kansas State 9-4, 7-2

4) Oklahoma 8-5, 5-4

5) Texas 6-7, 5-4

6) West Virginia 7-6, 5-4

7) Oklahoma State 7-6, 4-5

8) Texas Tech 4-8, 2-7

9) Kansas 3-9, 1-8

10) Iowa State 2-10, 0-9

Baylor and TCU were named Co-Champions despite TCU being significantly better.

Baylor (Image source, USA Today) 

Projected: 11-1, 8-1

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 8-4, 5-4

Toss Up Games: Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU (All projected wins but TCU) ((Hint, there’ll be a common theme with the toss ups))

No Bryce Petty? No major problems for Baylor this year. A very friendly schedule getting most of their tough games at home will give Baylor a very nice edge as they need to re-establish a dominate offense without their star QB. Just about everyone (but Petty) is returning on the explosive Baylor offense, but the question is can their 43^rd ranked defense from last year step up and keep them relevant in those toss up games (which in my opinion plagued Baylor and gave TCU the biggest edge in relevancy last year. Since they share 8 opponents, it’s easy to compare performances, and while Baylor was struggling in those key close games winning by about a touchdown, TCU would do things like beat down the tough teams, and murder the bad ones. See table below) A returning run game should help the new QB get established and resume the powerful air game that Baylor presents, but everything needs to be working if they want to knock off TCU.

(I've noticed Blogger hates tabbing)

For a quick comparison so I’m not crazy:                TCU                                        Baylor

SMU (TCU)                                                             Road, 56-0                            45-0

Iowa State (Eh, even)                                               55-3                                      Road, 49-28

Texas (TCU)                                                            Road, 48-10                         Road, 28-7

West Virginia (TCU)                                                Road, 31-30                           Road, L, 27-41

Kansas (Fine, Baylor)                                               Road, 34-30                         60-14

Oklahoma (Baylor)                                                   37-33                                    Road, 48-14

Oklahoma State (TCU)                                             42-9                                      49-28

Texas Tech (TCU, by a mile)                                    82-27                                    Road, 48-46

Kansas State (TCU)                                                  41-20                                     38-27

Final Tally: TCU 6-2-1. And a mile.

Iowa State (Image source, Iowa State Daily)

Projected: 2-10, 1-8

Best Case: 6-6, 3-6

Worst Case: 1-11, 0-9

Toss Ups: Iowa, Toledo, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State (Kansas is the only projected win)

Back to that hierarchy I alluded to earlier, whereas Baylor is clearly on the top, Iowa State is clearly on the bottom. Despite returning a majority of their offense, which might help them get some upsets, Iowa State hasn’t been relevant in a while and we’ll expect that trend to continue. But boy if they can beat Texas, I’ll give them the win for the season. (No I’m not bitter)

Kansas (Image source,Yahoo Sports)

Projected/Worst Case: 0-12, 0-9

Best Case: 2-10, 1-8

Toss Ups: South Dakota State, Iowa State (Projected losses)

See hierarchy and relevancy. Yes I have them losing to an FCS team, the Jackrabbits are no slouches.

Kansas State (Image source, CBS Sports)

Projected: 7-5, 4-5

Best Case: 11-1, 8-1

Worst Case: 5-7, 2-7

Toss Ups: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia (TTech and WVU are wins, rest losses)

I almost feel bad for my projection with K State. I have all 5 of their losses coming in a row, yikes. But if you look at it, no matter how good of a team you have, to be playing Ok State, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor all in a row like that? Yikes. QB Waters returns in what should be a similar looking offense, but the schedule gods condemn the Wildcats by giving them their tougher games on the road. Maybe if they do hit a 10 win season, Snyder can finally retire in peace.

Oklahoma (Image Source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 9-3, 6-3

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 7-5, 4-5

Toss Ups: Texas, Kansas State (Wins), Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State (Losses)

Much like Kansas State, Oklahoma gets all of their tough competition in one stretch, and sadly it’s the final three games for them I have losing (they’re on the road to Ok State, you know how rivalries tend to go sometimes) But the one ray of sunshine is their sophomore RB who broke a record as a freshman. A record that was recently broken itself a week ago, this freshman just decides to one up Melvin Gordon, like you have no chill bruh. But he’s also no one-hit wonder, he racked up a 2000 yard season and is poised to continue breaking records. If he was the whole team, then maybe I would lean on the Sooners going undefeated. They have a chance, but TCU begs to differ for the throne.

Oklahoma State (Image Source, CBS Sports)

Projected: 10-2, 7-2

Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 6-6, 3-6

Toss Ups: Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia (Wins), TCU, Baylor (Losses), Oklahoma (Win)

The only sanctuary Ok State gets over Oklahoma is a friendlier home schedule (I.e, hosting Oklahoma). Getting some of their harder games at home should help a mediocre, but returning, offense pick up some key wins. The Cowboys aren’t going to run away with the conference, but they’re my dark horse to pull some surprises.

Totally (should have been) Champions University (TCU) (Image Source, Pintrest...yes)

Projected/Best Case: 12-0, 9-0

Worst Case: 9-3, 6-3

Toss Ups: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor (Projected wins)

*brings the soap box back* THEIR WORST CASE IS STILL LOOKING AT 9 WINS. Like, 9 wins is still very very very good. That’s the kind of record that keeps coaches their jobs…oh wait. Anyway, I’m not even biased, like yes I like TCU but they freaking deserved AT LEAST A CHANCE to compete. #2 offense and #17 defense last year prior to bowl games, they MURDERED people (See SMU 56-0, Ok State 42-9, Texas Tech 82-27, Texas 48-10, Iowa State 55-3, Ole Miss 42-3. Also see above chart with comparisons to Baylor). Boykin will get Heisman honors, and the team will seek revenge this season, which means I expect even more fantastic beat-downs. And I hope they cream Baylor for the sake of dominance *gets off soap box*

Texas (Image Source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 6-6, 4-5

Best Case: 9-3, 7-2

Worst Case: 4-8, 3-6

Toss Ups: California (Win), Oklahoma State (Loss), Oklahoma (Loss), Kansas State (Loss), West Virginia (Win)

I don’t think any Nebraska fan will ever give Texas any respect, not even for a second, but that’s beyond the point. The point is a good chunk of the Longhorns offense is gone this season and needs to be re-established with a decent QB under center. Defense is still MIA because it’s the Big XII and defenses don’t exist. When California becomes a toss up game (which no offense to California, they are performing better) you know your season won’t go terribly well.

Texas Tech (Image Source, Dallas News)

Projected/Worst Case: 4-8, 2-7

Best Case: 8-4, 5-4

Toss Ups: Arkansas, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas State (All projected losses)

Preface: The fact that I struggled to find a decent pic of Texas Tech, and more so that a majority of what I was finding was about their dashingly handsome head coach says a lot about their recent lack of success.

A friendly schedule shrouded by the mystery of what kind of team we will see with the Red Raiders gives them some positive outlook for the season, but this is a Texas Tech team that is a season removed from getting railed for 80 by TCU. Maybe they’ll lose by 80 this year. I hope they do. Go TCU.

West Virginia (Image Source, Bleacher Report)

Projected: 6-6, 3-6

Best Case: 9-3, 6-3

Worst Case: 3-9, 2-7

Toss Ups: Georgia Southern (Win), Maryland (Win), Oklahoma State (Loss), Texas Tech (Win), Texas (Loss), Kansas State (Loss)

West Virginia is the true team of mystery. They can light up the scoreboard, and then they can’t. Given that they also have the hardest non-conference schedule in the Big XII (Georgia Southern (who is no slouch), Liberty (ok lol), and Maryland) this will be a very interesting team to watch, especially in the early season. Will the wheels on the bandwagon bus be turning? Maybe. If the season turns well for them I’ll start pulling for them to keep going for upsets. But that’s all we can hope for West Virginia, just string a bunch of upsets together, because who doesn’t like rooting for the underdog?

Conference projection: TCU by a mile.