Vs. Purdue

The Big Red Breakdown:

We're just jumping right into it this week since we briefly recapped last week and I need to move.

It's a bit past the halfway point and Nebraska is sitting at 3-4 on a road trip to Purdue. Has it been a disappointing year? Maybe. We have expected losses to Oregon and Ohio State, and unfortunate losses to Northern Illinois and Wisconsin. Wisconsin we've touched on multiple times and will continue to touch further later, but the loss to Northern Illinois is looking better (which I know is something we don't want to hear considering it was a home loss after all), but they're in the thick of it for the MAC Championship and on pace for a 10-win season. Quality loss, right?

Anyway. Purdue. This game looked scarier before the season started as they made that splash hire with head coach Jeff Brohm after some successful seasons out of Western Kentucky, and we knew that Purdue was coming in with a moderate offense. So far, they've gone on to prove that this is one of the better Purdue teams we have seen in a long while. They nearly got Louisville in the season opener, dismantled a fairly good Ohio team, kept competitive with Michigan, and exposed Wisconsin by almost beating them on the road. Unfortunately however, they are coming off of a tough loss to Rutgers. The offense has not been firing on all cylinders as it was earlier in the season, but the defense has stepped their game up accordingly, which is something we haven't said about a Purdue team in a while.

Which makes this game interesting. Yeah we're aware of Purdue's offense, but is their defense good enough this year to make a statement at home and take advantage of Tanner Lee? Maybe. They're still miles away from being the best defense, but I would still rate them as a competent defense. The most points they've allowed is 35 to the Lamar Jackson Cardinals, and have only allowed more than 20 points 3 times. They are great at creating turnovers, averaging a bit more than 2 per game, which is good for Top 20 in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, Tann- I mean Nebraska, is averaging just under 2 turnovers a game. Usually stats like that never actually happen, but we can't ignore that the possibility is more than real for this game.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Purdue D: Even. Possibly the first time I've ever called something even on this blog. Nebraska has the capabilities to make it rain on offense, yet they don't. Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Purdue has a capable defense, but definitely nothing stands out about them to be super threatening. Basically expect another Tanner Lee Pick Six Spectacular and see whatever else happens and hope for the best

Nebraska D vs. Purdue O: Edge Nebraska. Fortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system because original starter Blough has struggled as of late, and the new guy, Sindelar, isn't doing too hot either. Unfortunately, Purdue is using a two-QB system and Nebraska can't defend that to save their ass let alone Blough has dual-threat capabilities, and Nebraska can't defend that either.

Special Teams: I question how if "special" is an accurate word to describe Nebraska's special teams. I really think it's time for Spielman to step up into the returner role.

Prediction: The model likes Purdue in this one, 24-20. With the Vegas line giving Purdue the 4.5 favorite, I can't hate it here either. There is a very real possibility that Nebraska loses to Purdue, but we absolutely cannot accept mediocrity anymore. Yes Purdue is a better team than they used to be, but on paper Nebraska still outclasses them. It's just that someone decided to put a rock on our paper. Once again, I will counter my computer. I got faith in dem bone boys.

Nebraska 25, Purdue 23 (Don't ask, but it'll be close)

I have no idea what is going on in this picture but I love it.


The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

A reminder that this tracks projected potential for wins on a season, not actual quality of a team (but there is a small relation. I.e, given the numbers Alabama has put up, they're having a 14-win season. And by looking at what they have, they're very well on their way)

1) Alabama (Up 1)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Ohio State (Up 1)
4) Penn State (Down 1)
5) Washington (-)
6) TCU (Up 1)
7) Wisconsin (Up 2)
8) Georgia (-)
9) Notre Dame (Up 2)
10) Virginia Tech (Up 6)
11) South Florida (Down 5)
12) Auburn (Up 1)
13) Oklahoma State (Down 3)
14) Clemson (Up 1)
15) Oklahoma (Down 3)
16) Arizona (Down 2)
17) Stanford (Up 1)
18) Arkansas State (New)
19) Ohio (New)
20) Fresno State (Up 5)
21) Iowa State (New)
22) Florida Atlantic (New)
23) North Carolina State (Down 1)
24) Georgia Tech (Down 4)
25) UTSA (Down 4)
26) Miami (Down 2, despite winning, again. Computer might be on to something)
...
60) Purdue
...
100) Nebraska (Up 1. Woo for bye weeks?)
...
126) East Carolina (Up 4, they won another game!)
127) Kansas (Down 1)
128) Rice (-)
129) San Jose State (Down 2)
130) UTEP (Down 1)

If these rankings were reflective, these would be the championship games!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

Again no time for SMH or Heroes! Next week I swear!

Over(rated)Watch:

#5. Wisconsin - Overrated AF! I don't give a fuck if you beat Maryland by one million. The world knows it is only a matter of time before Wisconsin loses. Most likely in embarrassing fashion in the championship game, but then again, that could be Wisconsin's only proving ground this season. They're at Illinois this week UGH

#8. Miami - Being Watched. I think Miami is getting away with a few too many now. Yeah, the ACC is pretty deep this year and the fact that they are undefeated is pretty cool, but they are living life on the edge with all of these close wins. For sure a Top 15 team, but I think they've lost their candidacy for being a Top 10 team. They play North Carolina, which they should be able to smoke. But if they don't...

Proven their worth: #9 Notre Dame
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #21 USC

Prediction Center:

Add two more wins to the column! But for the sake of the fact that this week is another split prediction, I will go ahead and pull out the Wisconsin game as a tie. So we are 17-5-1 on the season with the small undefeated week last week. Got a good number of games this week, let's get to it!

Oklahoma State @ West Virginia - OK State 38, West Virginia 28

A good ol fashioned Big 12 shootout. OK State took a small tumble after only posting 13 to beat Texas last week, but they're still in the driver's seat to make the championship game. Meanwhile, this is the best chance for West Virginia to gain some ground in their own fight for the championship. I still think West Virginia is just on that tier below OK State and Oklahoma however.

Penn State @ Ohio State - Penn State 27, Ohio State 20

Game of the day and the one that will decide the Big Ten East. Penn State has all of the confidence in the world after blowing up Michigan's defense last week. Let's remind the folks that Ohio State struggled early in the season, and it'll take a team like Penn State to expose those brilliantly. Again, Penn State has been one of my picks for a national championship, don't let the Horseshoe scare yall.

TCU @ Iowa State - TCU 31, Iowa State 27

Iowa State has been quietly having a good season, especially after knocking off Oklahoma, and truthfully, should have only one loss, maybe undefeated, if they didn't suck it up against Iowa. We're also going to knock points off of the Oklahoma win after their close win over Kansas State. BUT, it's those loses against Iowa and Texas that make Iowa State still vulnerable and probably in that third tier of the Big 12 alongside West Virginia, going against the best team in the conference. Let's also not rule out a possible trap game for TCU going on the road.

North Carolina State @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 35, NC State 24

NC State was very close to making the Over(rated)Watch list this week, but I let them have a pass for now. A game like this could definitely make a statement given the year that they have had thus far. However, we have learned that Notre Dame ain't fucking around this year after obliterating USC (which in turn, also helps Georgia's ranking!)

Bye Week Breakdown

Since Nebraska is on a bye week, we're going to be taking a more in-depth look at the rest of the conferences to see how well they are stacking up as we are roughly at the halfway point of the college football season. But first, we do need to recap Nebraska's last game against Ohio State real quick:

Great! No interceptions though, right?

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Last week's upset bonanza actually didn't hurt these rankings too much. It's almost like they're ignoring poll inertia that the AP voters use, huh.

1) Central Florida (-)
2) Alabama (Up 1)
3) Penn State (Up 1)
4) Ohio State (Up 1)
5) Washington (Down 3)
6) South Florida (Up 2)
7) TCU (-)
8) Georgia (Up 2)
9) Wisconsin (Down 3)
10) Oklahoma State (Up 5)
11) Notre Dame (Up 3)
12) Oklahoma (Down 1)
13) Auburn (Down 4)
14) Arizona (Up 5)
15) Clemson (Down 3)
16) Virginia Tech (Up 5)
17) Texas Tech (Down 4)
18) Stanford (New)
19) West Virginia (Up 6)
20) Georgia Tech (Down 3)
21) UTSA (Down 3)
22) NC State (New)
23) Wake Forest (New)
24) Miami (Down 4)
25) Fresno State (New)
...
101) Nebraska (Down 16)
...
126) Kansas (New)
127) San Jose State (Up 1)
128) Rice (Down 1)
129) UTEP (-)
130) East Carolina (-)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the conference championships!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

But now we need to ask ourselves. Are we on path for something like this to happen for these championship games?

Pac-12:

Projected: Washington vs. Arizona
If Season Ended Today: Stanford vs. USC

My pre-season claim of the Pac-12 Champion having at least 1 loss has now come true with both of the Washington teams losing this past week, which unfortunately, also takes away the glamor of their rivalry game deciding who will be the North representative. But it still could! It is unlikely, but still possible. And that's the downfall of the Pac-12 actually. As seen with the upsets, the Pac-12 holds a lot of parity among themselves where we might just be getting started with the upsets. Stanford has realized they have McCaffrey 2.0 in Bryce Love, but as we've seen, it takes more than just a really good RB to be a good team. Stanford still needs to play both of the Washington teams (in back to back weeks no less), so they could cement their North status one way or another. If they split between them, then the Chaos gods will be smiling upon the Pac-12. The Washingtons meanwhile, need to make sure they don't take another stumble until they play each other at the end of the season. A rivalry game where the winner goes to the championship game will be fun to watch (and we will also see later). It's a bit too late for any other North team to make a case, barring a barrage of upsets.

The South meanwhile, is a crapshoot. USC still has The Darnold, albeit not having a great year as expected, and Arizona seems to have found their magic QB in Khalil Tate. The rest of the conference doesn't suck per se, they're just not fabulous. Which still makes for great TV and upsets across the board. USC and Arizona still need to play each other, so that could most likely decide the South, however Arizona still needs to play Washington State, while USC has already lost to them. Will we have more upsets brewing in the works? I hope so!

Big XII:

Projected: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
If Season Ended Today: TCU vs. Oklahoma?

I think we can all agree, that barring some losses, TCU is safe to be in the championship game as they are the only undefeated left (while yet having to play Oklahoma or Texas). The fight for who the second team will be gets interesting as we currently have 5 2-1 teams vying for that second championship spot. Personally, my vote is on the winner of Bedlam (between the Oklahomas), but we do need to keep in mind that again, Oklahoma and TCU haven't played yet, so that will be a game worth watching depending on how the standings shake out from there. But honestly, outside of TCU and the Oklahomas, I just don't see anyone else stepping up in this conference, or in short, everyone else's defense sucks ass. Texas Tech can maybe play some spoiler, but it'll be tough as they already have two losses with TCU, Oklahoma, AND Texas still on the schedule.

B1G:

Projected: Penn State vs. Wisconsin
If Season Ended Today: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

For as overrated as Wisconsin is, it would still be completely embarrassing (yet hilarious) if they DIDN'T win the West at this point. With Nebraska on bye, Wisconsin effectively has a two game lead in the West if they win this week, and their only tough roadblock is playing a questionable Michigan team in Madison. They have such a cake schedule that they should be able to win the division as every other two loss team still has one more tough game, but they will not be going far in the championship game. The East meanwhile, will be another battle between Ohio State and Penn State ft. Michigan State and Michigan. I still think Penn State is the class of the conference and could very well win the national championship. BUT, Ohio State is getting their shit together after some nice blowouts.

SEC:

Projected: Alabama vs. Georgia
If Season Ended Today: Alabama vs. Georgia

Yikes. The SEC has lost their ways outside of these two teams ft. Auburn. The East could still provide trouble for Georgia, but they seem to be getting their work done this year. The only challenge on their schedule prior to a potential championship date with Alabama, is traveling to Auburn, which if Auburn wins, could make for an interesting Iron Bowl game...

ACC:

Projected: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
If Season Ended Today: NC State vs. Miami

If you thought the Pac-12 had parity, then let me introduce you to the ACC. The NC State/Clemson game might decide the Atlantic, while teams like Syracuse and Wake Forest are also licking their chops at a potential stab at the division (Wake Forest has already lost to the two "good" teams in the ACC, while Syracuse just upset Clemson). THEN, on the other side in the Coastal, we have four teams in contention for that division, between Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. In my personal opinion, Miami should be the team to beat, but my model has been pretty low on them due to their last minute victories. The ACC could very well come down to the last week of the season.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5. Wisconsin - Overrated AF. After being exposed by Northwestern and Nebraska, they should have caught a break by blowing out Purdue at home, right? NOPE. Who the fuck only puts up 17 on Purdue, and gets shutout by them in the second half? It is unfortunate that Wisconsin has such a simple schedule, but that also means everything they have done with success is extremely padded (except their defense, that is legit). It is only a matter of time before someone beats them. They host Maryland this week, so we'll see.

#11. USC - Being Watched. Not so fast Trojans, just because other teams lost doesn't mean you can climb up the rankings without proof...They're at Notre Dame this week, so the proof better be in the pudding (or would it be potatoes for this week?)

#13. Notre Dame - Being Watched. Similarly, that doesn't mean Notre Dame can climb without a free pass too. Beat USC with conviction this week, and I'll take you off.

No team proved their worth last week
Properly taken care of and being low key watched: #15 Washington State, #21 Auburn

Prediction Center:

I hate being right when we lose, but sometimes it happens. 16-5 on the season, and we have a couple games to predict after last weeks blank slate.

Michigan @ Penn State - Penn State 27, Michigan 10

Both teams boast a really good defense, but unfortunately for Michigan, their bed-ridden offense will be devoured by Penn State on the road. The question becomes, how successful can Michigan be in containing McSorley and Barkley?

USC @ Notre Dame - Notre Dame 34, USC 24

Battle of the overrated teams! Notre Dame might have some kick behind them with their 1 point loss to Georgia as to being a good team, not much is being spoken of for USC as The Darnold has seemingly lost his Heisman ways. USC doesn't exactly have much of a defense either...

Vs. Oh-uh-O State

Recap:

It doesn't take much to understand what went wrong against Wisconsin. Two and a half solid quarters of play, only to be unraveled because of one adjustment Wisconsin made, and a failure to adjust to that adjustment by Nebraska. I said the biggest key to win this game was to make Wisconsin QB Hornibrook throw the ball because he sucks, therefore Nebraska needed to stop the run. Which yes, when going against a team like Wisconsin who will always have a premiere back plus two supports, is easier said than done. Unfortunately for Nebraska, Hornibrook only threw the ball 11 times in the first half, and only 6 more times in the second, for a total of 17 passes on the night. Wisconsin effectively took their own QB out of the game by just running the ball, and that saves a one-dimensional team like Wisconsin. They know their QB sucks, but if the one thing they excel in is working, then why fix what's not broken? After Hornibrook threw his pick six, I'm pretty sure we only saw two more passes out of him the entire game. Wisconsin knew they couldn't win with his arm. The broadcasters on BTN made a very valid point: "They could have a guard in as QB and nothing will change". Because that's all Wisconsin did. Handed the ball off.

And that becomes reflective on Nebraska's defense which was doing so well up to this game. How do you fail to adjust to the fact that all Wisconsin did in the last quarter and a half, was run the damn ball? They ended up running it a total of 49 times, and Nebraska struggled to stop the only thing that's serviceable on the Wisconsin team. I'm putting this loss more on Nebraska's defense than I am the offense. We knew Wisconsin was bringing a tough defense, and frankly, I thought Nebraska did fairly well against them at times. Sure we can bring up the "what if" card again because Tanner threw another pick six at the end of another successful first drive that probably shifted the momentum of the game immediately, but they did their job. HOWEVER, as I will allude to later,  this Wisconsin team is overrated and Nebraska should have won that game.

The Big Red Breakdown:

But that is in the past and we need to look ahead to the second part of Nebraska's nightmare doubleheader, and this week the Buckeyes come to town. Ohio State started the season a bit sluggish, lost to Oklahoma who just lost to Iowa State, so maybe there's a chance? But they come into town after completely shutting down a very underrated Maryland team, and they are a 24 point favorite. Normally I'm pretty apathetic towards Vegas' lines, but I don't disagree with this one. Talent wise, Nebraska is still a good one star behind Ohio State on every front. I genuinely cannot poke any positive holes into thinking that Nebraska can get close to winning this game.

But let's try. As mentioned last week, Nebraska is 46-6 in home night games, and it has been since 2009 that Nebraska has lost immediate back to back home games (immediate meaning there have been no road games in between, Nebraska has lost their share of those). Last time Ohio State came to town, Nebraska had a furious comeback victory to win *cough where they injured Braxton Miller cough* and last year, well, I'm sure we all remember that one fondly. I seriously cannot find any positives on this one, I'm sorry :(

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Ohio St D: Advantage Ohio St. Between Tanner throwing picks, and the fact that Ohio St just shut down the Oregon of the east coast in Maryland, plus Ohio St's historical positive trend with their defense, yikes.

Nebraska D vs. Ohio St O: Edge Ohio St. I'll give Nebraska a fighting chance here as this seems to be the only area Ohio St can struggle in get going, but once they do, Ohio St is just miles beyond what Nebraska can defend. They also love to go on the edges, which is still one of Nebraska's weak points defensively.

Special Teams: Ohio State is actually pretty good here, so they need to bring their A game.

The Prediction: As much as I don't hate the 24 point line in favor of Ohio State, I don't think it will get that bad, I'm thinking just a touchdown less, but I won't be surprised if they push it. Also a problem, if it does end up being that bad of a blow out at home, Mike Riley might just be on his way out. If he keeps it a competitive game (let alone win), he might just save his ass. Onward to the bye week I guess.

Ohio State 41, Nebraska 24

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Remember that these rankings reflect total wins, not necessarily quality of team (although I don't hate that they could go hand in hand with this), but how likely a team will achieve more wins (aka Central Florida is most likely to achieve an undefeated season). The Top 25 is projected for at least 10 wins, Top 20 is at least 11, and Top 13 is where we start to see the potential 12-win teams AT THIS MOMENT. The reason why I say I don't hate that it could go hand in hand with quality is that we are starting to see stability in the Top 5, along with some stability in the Top 10. The bottom half of the Top 25 is seeing some volatility within the rankings, but we are only seeing 2-3 new teams per week, which I find as progress.

1) Central Florida (Up 1)
2) Washington (Up 1)
3) Alabama (Down 2)
4) Penn State (-)
5) Ohio State (Up 8)
6) Wisconsin (Up 1)
7) TCU (Down 2)
8) South Florida (Up 4)
9) Auburn (Up 2)
10) Georgia (Up 5)
11) Oklahoma (Down 5)
12) Clemson (Up 2)
13) Texas Tech (New)
14) Notre Dame (Up 3)
15) Oklahoma State (Up 6)
16) Oregon (Down 8)
17) Georgia Tech (Up 7)
18) UTSA (Down 8, RIP dream season)
19) Arizona (Up 1)
20) Miami (Down 11, which I found surprising since they won)
21) Virginia Tech (Up 2)
22) Washington State (New)
23) Kansas State (Down 5)
24) Utah (Down 5)
25) West Virginia (Down 9)
...
85) Nebraska (Down 17)
...
126) Oregon State (New)
127) Rice (Down 1)
128) San Jose State (Up 1)
129) UTEP (Up 1)
130) East Carolina (Down 2)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the championship games if the season ended!

Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

It was a pretty bland week for any SMH's or Heroes, everyone kind of did their job, so this week will be skipped unfortunately.

Over(rated)Watch:

#7. Wisconsin - Exposed. As mentioned last week and up above, Wisconsin has been proven as a one-dimensional team with a really really good defense. To their credit, their dimension is tough to stop, but to the team that can stop it, Wisconsin will flutter on into the wind. Wisconsin hosts Purdue this week, so unfortunately they will most likely not get exposed further (but if they do, lol)

#8. Washington State - Being Watched. Ok...so they beat Oregon on the road...so it looks like they'll have a safe trip to Undefeated Land until they play their in-state rival for the Pac-12 North. Or will they? I think the quality is there, but they need to continue pushing over these teams in the Pac-12 and prove their worth. They play California tonight actually.

#10. Auburn - Being Watched. Auburn is very slowly working their way off this list by proving their worth, however I still have questions about their offense as their past two wins have been against cake teams. They play at LSU this week, so that'll be an interesting game for one of those teams.

#16. Notre Dame - Being Watched. Is Notre Dame back? That one point home loss to Georgia looks better every week, unfortunately, that is all they have to their name. Notre Dame is on bye to prepare for next weeks battle of the overrated's against USC.

Proven their worth: #4 Georgia, #6 TCU
No team was removed from this list via being exposed

Prediction Center:

Damn. No ranked v ranked games this week? Bummer. For those keeping score at home, and depending how you want to score things, we either went 1-1 or 2-0 last week thanks to a split projection by me and my computer. Naturally, I like to take the wins when I can get them, so we are now 15-5 on the season.

"Good Enough" (vs. Wisconsin)

Recap:

Possibly the most complete game we've seen from Nebraska in a long while. Yeah, it was Illinois, but still, that is extremely reassuring that Nebraska can play a whole game without making a silly mistake. First time Nebraska hasn't allowed a touchdown in any capacity since 2012 when they only allowed 9 points to a Dennard Robinson-less Michigan team. Who would have thought that the regular Illinois would turn out to be the easiest game on the road? Yup, that loss against Northern Illinois got some quality behind it as they nearly lost to a good San Diego State team. Shitty offense or not, that's still incredible to not let an opponent get that close to scoring. The defense has stepped it's game up tremendously and they couldn't be playing well at a better time. Meanwhile, the offense didn't look super explosive as it should, but the fact that it looks threatening when Tanner doesn't throw the ball away is great to see. Nebraska needs to take this momentum and run (literally). This next game is YUGE.

The Big Red Breakdown:

Them damn Badgers come to town, once again, featuring a running back that can tear shit up. Jonathan Taylor is also only a freshman, yeesh. Wisconsin is also expected to have Fumagali at some capacity, so Nebraska will be seeing an almost full-strength Wisconsin team, which is scary at first, but as we do here, let's dig deeper.

Everyone is already writing off Nebraska to lose, even my computer, which I don't blame them. Wisconsin has one of the best shut down defenses in the nation (as usual), and they can FEAST off Tanner Lee. They had 10 sacks against Northwestern. B1G TEN. Imagine what horrors can unravel between Lee's tendency to stay in the pocket and the half ass job the offensive line does at times. Nebraska needs to establish the run very early, and while that will be difficult, it can be done between Wilbon and Ozigbo with the committee approach. Because once the starters are tired, Wisconsin has ZERO depth on defense. And that's important. If Nebraska can wear out the starters, then it might be easy sleighing to pick on some of the backups. But the minute Tanner throws a pick six, or a couple interceptions, then it was nice knowing Nebraska.

On the other side of the ball, we have the most overrated offense ever outside of their running back. Hornibrook has sucked and still sucks. "Oh but he has a really high completion rate!" WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED: Utah State, 3-2; Florida Atlantic, 2-3; BYU, 1-4. I wouldn't call those "quality wins". Their only competition came against Northwestern, who I would say is an average team, and they kept it to almost a touchdown IN WISCONSIN. Northwestern did a great job of exposing Wisconsin's weaknesses, because outside of running it with Taylor, there are A LOT OF THEM. Hornibrook had a bad game, because he is bad! Shit, even Northwestern did a good job of holding Taylor. Wisconsin's offensive line is not quite as good as it once was, so let's look to pressure them early and often.

This next sentence is going to be a unicorn sentence so appreciate it while yall can: Nebraska needs to make Hornibrook throw. He is weak if he can't dump it off to Taylor. And preferably not to Fumagali, that man is magical in making Hornibrook look good. Test the secondary, I dare ya.

What else is going into this game that would make you believe Nebraska has better than a standing chance of winning as long as we mentally block out Tanner's fallacies? Nebraska hasn't lost a home night game since Virginia Tech in 2008, and overall, are 46-5. Looking ahead slightly, Nebraska hasn't lost immediate back to back home games since 2009 when Texas Tech blew Nebraska out and the turnover fiasco that was Iowa State (Nebraska has lost "back to back" home games in 2013 and 2015, but there was a road game in between those two losses so I'm not counting that). So if Nebraska doesn't get Wisconsin, they should get Ohio State right? But I'm putting the odds on getting Wisconsin. I said it before the season and I'm sticking by it. Screw the computer.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs Wisconsin D: Advantage Wisconsin. Tanner needs to play out of his god damn mind and have a turnover free game if Nebraska is going to even get close at breathing near a win. The quicker Nebraska can face some of the backups, the easier the game could get. This game will be won or lost on Tanner's QB play

Nebraska D vs Wisconsin O: Advantage Nebraska. Hornibrook sucks. Just maintain Taylor and Fumagali and he'll do the rest for them. Nebraska's defense has played out of their god damn minds lately.

Special Teams: Nebraska isn't exactly so special in this department anymore since De'Mornay's injury, which is tragic.

Prediction: Computer says 38-20 Wisconsin, so I'll open with that. I'll close with saying that my computer does not adjust for: Home games, Night games, Home Night games, and the fact that Wisconsin's numbers have been blown out of proportion (well so have Nebraska's slightly, but shhhh). This has 2015 Michigan State written all over it, an undefeated, seemingly high rolling team but really marginally overrated coming into Lincoln at night. Let the magic happen.

Nebraska 20, Wisconsin 16

Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Reminder that these rankings are based off total predicted wins. Which is why we will see some G5 teams doing "good". Like yeah, they probably are good teams, but it is easier for a good G5 team to score 10 wins than a good P5 team

1) Alabama (Up 3)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Washington (Down 1)
4) Penn State (Up 2)
5) TCU (-)
6) Oklahoma (Up 1)
7) Wisconsin (Down 4)
8) Oregon (Up 2)
9) Miami (Up 3)
10) UTSA (Up 4)
11) Auburn (Up 12)
12) South Florida (Up 4)
13) Ohio State (New)
14) Clemson (Down 1)
15) Georgia (Up 10)
16) West Virginia (Up 4)
17) Notre Dame (New)
18) Kansas State (Down 3)
19) Utah (Up 3)
20) Arizona (Up 4)
21) Oklahoma State (Down 4)
22) Wake Forest (Down 11)
23) Virginia Tech (Down 15)
24) Georgia Tech (New)
25) Minnesota (Down 15)
...
68) Nebraska (Up 17)
...
126) Rice (New)
127) Georgia Southern (New)
128) East Carolina (Up 2)
129) San Jose State (Down 1)
130) UTEP (Down 1)

If these rankings are reflective, here would be the championship games!

SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West v. East)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Utah (North v. South)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East v. West)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Miami vs. Clemson (Coastal v. Atlantic)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

SMH of the Week:

Tennessee. Just...do the world a favor and stop. You were never good and will never be. Getting steamrolled 41-0 AT HOME is asking for a head coaching change. Just wait till you play Alabama. Or by some miracle pull off the upset (the world would go NUTS if that happened at this point). SMH Tennessee (and almost the whole conference)

Hero of the Week:

Troy! Proving to the world that 1) LSU is overrated and by virtue the whole SEC might be collapsing finally, and 2) G5 teams are very underrated and don't get enough love. Keep doing you Troy!

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 Georgia - Being Watched Even More. LSU's epic collapse against Troy is knocking down even more dominoes in the SEC. I don't think Georgia is Top 5 good, Top 10, sure. They are the clear runaway in the SEC East however. They play the scrappy Vanderbilt squad this week

#8 TCU - Being Watched. Their offense might be coming to life, but it still might be a hot minute. Big 12 contender? Maybe. They get some help by virtue of the Battle of Bedlam in the sense that the loser of that game will probably be knocked out of the Big 12 title run. If they can maintain undefeated, one loss play, then perhaps. They get an interesting, but doable matchup against West Virginia this week

#9 Wisconsin - Being Watched. Explained above. No idea who they're playing this week.

#11 Washington State - Being Watched. Sure they successfully exposed USC, but overreaction much AP poll? Top 15 sure, but let's not get carried away. This is a very volatile Pac-12 conference, and they started the show by giving USC their loss. I still say the champion of this conference comes out with at least one loss. The Cougs get Oregon this week on the road, so here comes Wazzu's loss. On the other hand... 

#12 Auburn - Being Watched. Not as much as last week though as they dismantled Mississippi State. But again, we need to keep asking ourselves, were they actually good? They play the other Mississippi team this week (Ole Miss)

No one proved their worth from last week.
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #14 USC, #16 Virginia Tech

Prediction Center:

Sadly we turn in our first non-winning week, BUT still not a losing one! 2-2, brings us to a season total of 13-5. Louisville and NC State played last night, with NC State properly winning, so we only have one other game to predict this week :/

West Virginia @ TCU - TCU 38, West Virginia 24

West Virginia is not quite part of the "elite" tier in the Big 12, so going on the road to challenge one of the potential top 3 won't end well.