Vs. Oh-uh-O State

Recap:

It doesn't take much to understand what went wrong against Wisconsin. Two and a half solid quarters of play, only to be unraveled because of one adjustment Wisconsin made, and a failure to adjust to that adjustment by Nebraska. I said the biggest key to win this game was to make Wisconsin QB Hornibrook throw the ball because he sucks, therefore Nebraska needed to stop the run. Which yes, when going against a team like Wisconsin who will always have a premiere back plus two supports, is easier said than done. Unfortunately for Nebraska, Hornibrook only threw the ball 11 times in the first half, and only 6 more times in the second, for a total of 17 passes on the night. Wisconsin effectively took their own QB out of the game by just running the ball, and that saves a one-dimensional team like Wisconsin. They know their QB sucks, but if the one thing they excel in is working, then why fix what's not broken? After Hornibrook threw his pick six, I'm pretty sure we only saw two more passes out of him the entire game. Wisconsin knew they couldn't win with his arm. The broadcasters on BTN made a very valid point: "They could have a guard in as QB and nothing will change". Because that's all Wisconsin did. Handed the ball off.

And that becomes reflective on Nebraska's defense which was doing so well up to this game. How do you fail to adjust to the fact that all Wisconsin did in the last quarter and a half, was run the damn ball? They ended up running it a total of 49 times, and Nebraska struggled to stop the only thing that's serviceable on the Wisconsin team. I'm putting this loss more on Nebraska's defense than I am the offense. We knew Wisconsin was bringing a tough defense, and frankly, I thought Nebraska did fairly well against them at times. Sure we can bring up the "what if" card again because Tanner threw another pick six at the end of another successful first drive that probably shifted the momentum of the game immediately, but they did their job. HOWEVER, as I will allude to later,  this Wisconsin team is overrated and Nebraska should have won that game.

The Big Red Breakdown:

But that is in the past and we need to look ahead to the second part of Nebraska's nightmare doubleheader, and this week the Buckeyes come to town. Ohio State started the season a bit sluggish, lost to Oklahoma who just lost to Iowa State, so maybe there's a chance? But they come into town after completely shutting down a very underrated Maryland team, and they are a 24 point favorite. Normally I'm pretty apathetic towards Vegas' lines, but I don't disagree with this one. Talent wise, Nebraska is still a good one star behind Ohio State on every front. I genuinely cannot poke any positive holes into thinking that Nebraska can get close to winning this game.

But let's try. As mentioned last week, Nebraska is 46-6 in home night games, and it has been since 2009 that Nebraska has lost immediate back to back home games (immediate meaning there have been no road games in between, Nebraska has lost their share of those). Last time Ohio State came to town, Nebraska had a furious comeback victory to win *cough where they injured Braxton Miller cough* and last year, well, I'm sure we all remember that one fondly. I seriously cannot find any positives on this one, I'm sorry :(

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Ohio St D: Advantage Ohio St. Between Tanner throwing picks, and the fact that Ohio St just shut down the Oregon of the east coast in Maryland, plus Ohio St's historical positive trend with their defense, yikes.

Nebraska D vs. Ohio St O: Edge Ohio St. I'll give Nebraska a fighting chance here as this seems to be the only area Ohio St can struggle in get going, but once they do, Ohio St is just miles beyond what Nebraska can defend. They also love to go on the edges, which is still one of Nebraska's weak points defensively.

Special Teams: Ohio State is actually pretty good here, so they need to bring their A game.

The Prediction: As much as I don't hate the 24 point line in favor of Ohio State, I don't think it will get that bad, I'm thinking just a touchdown less, but I won't be surprised if they push it. Also a problem, if it does end up being that bad of a blow out at home, Mike Riley might just be on his way out. If he keeps it a competitive game (let alone win), he might just save his ass. Onward to the bye week I guess.

Ohio State 41, Nebraska 24

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Regression Rankings:

Remember that these rankings reflect total wins, not necessarily quality of team (although I don't hate that they could go hand in hand with this), but how likely a team will achieve more wins (aka Central Florida is most likely to achieve an undefeated season). The Top 25 is projected for at least 10 wins, Top 20 is at least 11, and Top 13 is where we start to see the potential 12-win teams AT THIS MOMENT. The reason why I say I don't hate that it could go hand in hand with quality is that we are starting to see stability in the Top 5, along with some stability in the Top 10. The bottom half of the Top 25 is seeing some volatility within the rankings, but we are only seeing 2-3 new teams per week, which I find as progress.

1) Central Florida (Up 1)
2) Washington (Up 1)
3) Alabama (Down 2)
4) Penn State (-)
5) Ohio State (Up 8)
6) Wisconsin (Up 1)
7) TCU (Down 2)
8) South Florida (Up 4)
9) Auburn (Up 2)
10) Georgia (Up 5)
11) Oklahoma (Down 5)
12) Clemson (Up 2)
13) Texas Tech (New)
14) Notre Dame (Up 3)
15) Oklahoma State (Up 6)
16) Oregon (Down 8)
17) Georgia Tech (Up 7)
18) UTSA (Down 8, RIP dream season)
19) Arizona (Up 1)
20) Miami (Down 11, which I found surprising since they won)
21) Virginia Tech (Up 2)
22) Washington State (New)
23) Kansas State (Down 5)
24) Utah (Down 5)
25) West Virginia (Down 9)
...
85) Nebraska (Down 17)
...
126) Oregon State (New)
127) Rice (Down 1)
128) San Jose State (Up 1)
129) UTEP (Up 1)
130) East Carolina (Down 2)

If these rankings were reflective, here would be the championship games if the season ended!

Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs. South)
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs. West)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (Atlantic vs. Coastal)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida

It was a pretty bland week for any SMH's or Heroes, everyone kind of did their job, so this week will be skipped unfortunately.

Over(rated)Watch:

#7. Wisconsin - Exposed. As mentioned last week and up above, Wisconsin has been proven as a one-dimensional team with a really really good defense. To their credit, their dimension is tough to stop, but to the team that can stop it, Wisconsin will flutter on into the wind. Wisconsin hosts Purdue this week, so unfortunately they will most likely not get exposed further (but if they do, lol)

#8. Washington State - Being Watched. Ok...so they beat Oregon on the road...so it looks like they'll have a safe trip to Undefeated Land until they play their in-state rival for the Pac-12 North. Or will they? I think the quality is there, but they need to continue pushing over these teams in the Pac-12 and prove their worth. They play California tonight actually.

#10. Auburn - Being Watched. Auburn is very slowly working their way off this list by proving their worth, however I still have questions about their offense as their past two wins have been against cake teams. They play at LSU this week, so that'll be an interesting game for one of those teams.

#16. Notre Dame - Being Watched. Is Notre Dame back? That one point home loss to Georgia looks better every week, unfortunately, that is all they have to their name. Notre Dame is on bye to prepare for next weeks battle of the overrated's against USC.

Proven their worth: #4 Georgia, #6 TCU
No team was removed from this list via being exposed

Prediction Center:

Damn. No ranked v ranked games this week? Bummer. For those keeping score at home, and depending how you want to score things, we either went 1-1 or 2-0 last week thanks to a split projection by me and my computer. Naturally, I like to take the wins when I can get them, so we are now 15-5 on the season.