Possibly the most complete game we've seen from Nebraska in a long while. Yeah, it was Illinois, but still, that is extremely reassuring that Nebraska can play a whole game without making a silly mistake. First time Nebraska hasn't allowed a touchdown in any capacity since 2012 when they only allowed 9 points to a Dennard Robinson-less Michigan team. Who would have thought that the regular Illinois would turn out to be the easiest game on the road? Yup, that loss against Northern Illinois got some quality behind it as they nearly lost to a good San Diego State team. Shitty offense or not, that's still incredible to not let an opponent get that close to scoring. The defense has stepped it's game up tremendously and they couldn't be playing well at a better time. Meanwhile, the offense didn't look super explosive as it should, but the fact that it looks threatening when Tanner doesn't throw the ball away is great to see. Nebraska needs to take this momentum and run (literally). This next game is YUGE.
The Big Red Breakdown:
Them damn Badgers come to town, once again, featuring a running back that can tear shit up. Jonathan Taylor is also only a freshman, yeesh. Wisconsin is also expected to have Fumagali at some capacity, so Nebraska will be seeing an almost full-strength Wisconsin team, which is scary at first, but as we do here, let's dig deeper.
Everyone is already writing off Nebraska to lose, even my computer, which I don't blame them. Wisconsin has one of the best shut down defenses in the nation (as usual), and they can FEAST off Tanner Lee. They had 10 sacks against Northwestern. B1G TEN. Imagine what horrors can unravel between Lee's tendency to stay in the pocket and the half ass job the offensive line does at times. Nebraska needs to establish the run very early, and while that will be difficult, it can be done between Wilbon and Ozigbo with the committee approach. Because once the starters are tired, Wisconsin has ZERO depth on defense. And that's important. If Nebraska can wear out the starters, then it might be easy sleighing to pick on some of the backups. But the minute Tanner throws a pick six, or a couple interceptions, then it was nice knowing Nebraska.
On the other side of the ball, we have the most overrated offense ever outside of their running back. Hornibrook has sucked and still sucks. "Oh but he has a really high completion rate!" WHO HAVE THEY PLAYED: Utah State, 3-2; Florida Atlantic, 2-3; BYU, 1-4. I wouldn't call those "quality wins". Their only competition came against Northwestern, who I would say is an average team, and they kept it to almost a touchdown IN WISCONSIN. Northwestern did a great job of exposing Wisconsin's weaknesses, because outside of running it with Taylor, there are A LOT OF THEM. Hornibrook had a bad game, because he is bad! Shit, even Northwestern did a good job of holding Taylor. Wisconsin's offensive line is not quite as good as it once was, so let's look to pressure them early and often.
This next sentence is going to be a unicorn sentence so appreciate it while yall can: Nebraska needs to make Hornibrook throw. He is weak if he can't dump it off to Taylor. And preferably not to Fumagali, that man is magical in making Hornibrook look good. Test the secondary, I dare ya.
What else is going into this game that would make you believe Nebraska has better than a standing chance of winning as long as we mentally block out Tanner's fallacies? Nebraska hasn't lost a home night game since Virginia Tech in 2008, and overall, are 46-5. Looking ahead slightly, Nebraska hasn't lost immediate back to back home games since 2009 when Texas Tech blew Nebraska out and the turnover fiasco that was Iowa State (Nebraska has lost "back to back" home games in 2013 and 2015, but there was a road game in between those two losses so I'm not counting that). So if Nebraska doesn't get Wisconsin, they should get Ohio State right? But I'm putting the odds on getting Wisconsin. I said it before the season and I'm sticking by it. Screw the computer.
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs Wisconsin D: Advantage Wisconsin. Tanner needs to play out of his god damn mind and have a turnover free game if Nebraska is going to even get close at breathing near a win. The quicker Nebraska can face some of the backups, the easier the game could get. This game will be won or lost on Tanner's QB play
Nebraska D vs Wisconsin O: Advantage Nebraska. Hornibrook sucks. Just maintain Taylor and Fumagali and he'll do the rest for them. Nebraska's defense has played out of their god damn minds lately.
Special Teams: Nebraska isn't exactly so special in this department anymore since De'Mornay's injury, which is tragic.
Prediction: Computer says 38-20 Wisconsin, so I'll open with that. I'll close with saying that my computer does not adjust for: Home games, Night games, Home Night games, and the fact that Wisconsin's numbers have been blown out of proportion (well so have Nebraska's slightly, but shhhh). This has 2015 Michigan State written all over it, an undefeated, seemingly high rolling team but really marginally overrated coming into Lincoln at night. Let the magic happen.
Nebraska 20, Wisconsin 16
Rest of the Week in College Football:
Regression Rankings:
Reminder that these rankings are based off total predicted wins. Which is why we will see some G5 teams doing "good". Like yeah, they probably are good teams, but it is easier for a good G5 team to score 10 wins than a good P5 team
1) Alabama (Up 3)
2) Central Florida (Down 1)
3) Washington (Down 1)
4) Penn State (Up 2)
5) TCU (-)
6) Oklahoma (Up 1)
7) Wisconsin (Down 4)
8) Oregon (Up 2)
9) Miami (Up 3)
10) UTSA (Up 4)
11) Auburn (Up 12)
12) South Florida (Up 4)
13) Ohio State (New)
14) Clemson (Down 1)
15) Georgia (Up 10)
16) West Virginia (Up 4)
17) Notre Dame (New)
18) Kansas State (Down 3)
19) Utah (Up 3)
20) Arizona (Up 4)
21) Oklahoma State (Down 4)
22) Wake Forest (Down 11)
23) Virginia Tech (Down 15)
24) Georgia Tech (New)
25) Minnesota (Down 15)
...
68) Nebraska (Up 17)
...
126) Rice (New)
127) Georgia Southern (New)
128) East Carolina (Up 2)
129) San Jose State (Down 1)
130) UTEP (Down 1)
If these rankings are reflective, here would be the championship games!
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West v. East)
Pac-12: Washington vs. Utah (North v. South)
B1G: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East v. West)
Big XII: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Miami vs. Clemson (Coastal v. Atlantic)
Best G5 Team: Central Florida
SMH of the Week:
Tennessee. Just...do the world a favor and stop. You were never good and will never be. Getting steamrolled 41-0 AT HOME is asking for a head coaching change. Just wait till you play Alabama. Or by some miracle pull off the upset (the world would go NUTS if that happened at this point). SMH Tennessee (and almost the whole conference)
Hero of the Week:
Troy! Proving to the world that 1) LSU is overrated and by virtue the whole SEC might be collapsing finally, and 2) G5 teams are very underrated and don't get enough love. Keep doing you Troy!
Over(rated)Watch:
#5 Georgia - Being Watched Even More. LSU's epic collapse against Troy is knocking down even more dominoes in the SEC. I don't think Georgia is Top 5 good, Top 10, sure. They are the clear runaway in the SEC East however. They play the scrappy Vanderbilt squad this week
#8 TCU - Being Watched. Their offense might be coming to life, but it still might be a hot minute. Big 12 contender? Maybe. They get some help by virtue of the Battle of Bedlam in the sense that the loser of that game will probably be knocked out of the Big 12 title run. If they can maintain undefeated, one loss play, then perhaps. They get an interesting, but doable matchup against West Virginia this week
#9 Wisconsin - Being Watched. Explained above. No idea who they're playing this week.
#11 Washington State - Being Watched. Sure they successfully exposed USC, but overreaction much AP poll? Top 15 sure, but let's not get carried away. This is a very volatile Pac-12 conference, and they started the show by giving USC their loss. I still say the champion of this conference comes out with at least one loss. The Cougs get Oregon this week on the road, so here comes Wazzu's loss. On the other hand...
#12 Auburn - Being Watched. Not as much as last week though as they dismantled Mississippi State. But again, we need to keep asking ourselves, were they actually good? They play the other Mississippi team this week (Ole Miss)
No one proved their worth from last week.
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #14 USC, #16 Virginia Tech
Prediction Center:
Sadly we turn in our first non-winning week, BUT still not a losing one! 2-2, brings us to a season total of 13-5. Louisville and NC State played last night, with NC State properly winning, so we only have one other game to predict this week :/
West Virginia @ TCU - TCU 38, West Virginia 24
West Virginia is not quite part of the "elite" tier in the Big 12, so going on the road to challenge one of the potential top 3 won't end well.
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