College football returns on that weekend! More specifically on that Thursday with a couple interesting match-ups (I see you North Carolina v South Carolina, Harbaugh's debut with Michigan traveling against a chippy Utah squad, and TCU at Minnesota). So I figured it's time to break out some pre-season projections which I have quickly figured out is a lot harder to do as a college student with a part-time job doing this as a hobby than the people that do this for a living can. The reason why I say that is as I was doing my diggings for the ACC this week, I found out that there is some fairly limited projections on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive, so it's fairly hard to project something you're unfamiliar with (such as me with the ACC). I'm much more confident in my abilities to tell when a team is overrated or underrated AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES, than to tell how a team will perform if data for half of the team is fuzzy. But we're going to give this one hell of a shot, that's for sure:
Last Year's Results:
Atlantic Division: (Finish in conference, team, overall record, conference record)
1. Florida State 13-1, 8-0
2. Clemson 10-3, 6-2
3. Louisville 9-4, 5-3
4. Boston College 7-6, 4-4
5. NC State 8-5, 3-5
6. Syracuse 3-9, 1-7
7. Wake Forest 3-9, 1-7
(Hint for those who don't follow religiously, the way teams are ranked in conference play is based off conference performance first, then overall performance. Hence why NC State has a 1 game on BC but BC finished above NC State due to the extra ACC win)
Coastal Division:
1. Georgia Tech 11-3, 6-2
2. Duke 9-4, 5-3
3. North Carolina 6-7, 4-4
4. Pittsburgh 6-7, 4-4
5. Virginia Tech 7-6, 3-5
6. Miami 6-7, 3-5
7. Virginia 5-7, 3-5
Florida St. defeated Georgia Tech in the ACC Final, 37-35
Even in the post-Winston era, Florida St. seems to be poised as the favorites to win the ACC again, or at least the Atlantic division. However, with some off-season issues from some of its players, and other teams returning a bit more experience, there are quite a few dark horses that can take down FSU this year. But we're gonna try to look at each team individually (Note, Best Case is obviously ignoring going undefeated if it's fairly unreasonable. Similarly, Worst Case ignores going win-less):
(Side note: I do not own these images, credit is given to where credit is due)
Boston College (Image source jacksonville.com):
Projected/Best Case: 7-5, 4-4
Worst Case: 3-9, 1-7
Toss Up Games: Northern Illinois, Virginia Tech, NC State, Syracuse (Projected to win all)
Boston College looked promising last year thanks to ex-Florida QB Tyler Murphy leading the way. Unfortunately for the Golden Eagles, he's on to bigger and better things (maybe). What they do have going for them is experience in the run game. Tyler Murphy (who led the team in rushing by nearly 300 yards more than their #1 RB) is gone, but the next three rushers in the team's top four will return to lead the run heavy Eagles to some hopeful success. If the defense is sharp and the toss-up games go their way, they should finish above .500 and bowl eligible for consecutive seasons.
Clemson (Image source, Huffington Post):
Projected/Best Case: 12-0, 8-0
Worst Case: 6-6, 4-4
Toss Up Games: Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, South Carolina (Projected to win all)
Remember how I said this is really hard to do when half of a team's data is missing? Here is the first instance of what I mean. On paper, Clemson returns a boat load of offense and their schedule is favorable. Both QBs are returning (In my honest opinion Deshaun Watson is better than Cole Stoudt and he should be starting. If he does wind up as the starter put him on the Heisman Watch List), Clemson's Top 3 rushers AND receivers are also returning, and there are some rising stars on defense. But again, this is only on paper (which...uhh, yes half of what I do is basing things off paper but never mind that) and this is where the Toss Up Games come in. These toss ups are labelled as such because we don't know how good EITHER team will be on both sides of the ball (In Clemson's case, 4 of the 6 I listed could either be really good to put up a fight or bad enough for a team like Clemson is projected to be to beat. The other 2 are projected to be fairly decent, I'll let you guys decide who is who *cough GT and FSU are going to be good cough*)
BUT that's the thing that works for Clemson as well! They get BOTH Georgia Tech and Florida State at home!!! If they can get out of Miami with a win, Clemson has a very legitimate chance to be undefeated and looking at national championship aspirations
Duke (Image source, Dukereport):
Best Case: 12-0, 8-0 (Favorable Schedule)
Worst Case: 7-5, 4-4 (Yay Toss Ups and question marks!)
Toss Up Games: Northwestern (Win), Georgia Tech (Lose), Virginia Tech (Lose), Miami (Lose), North Carolina (Win)
First team in the ACC to have a different projected case apart from their best/worst case yay! Duke is one of those teams that have risen up out of the blue these past seasons and are hoping to not fade away. They lose some muscle on offense (Starting QB and top two receivers are gone) and their defense has some big question marks along with a potentially weak running game to assist their new QB. But thanks to favorable scheduling (getting Miami and Georgia Tech at home helps those toss ups) Duke could squeak out a decent record this year
Florida State (Image source, Miami Herald):
Best Case: 12-0, 8-0
Worst Case: 7-5, 4-4
Toss Up Games: Miami (Win), Louisville (Win), Georgia Tech (Lose), Clemson (Lose), Florida (Lose)
I've always thought Florida State was slightly overrated until Winston came around and made them relevant. Now that they are in the post-Winston era I do believe FSU will go back into dormancy, however they have one last fight in them as ex-Notre Dame QB Golson comes to town for only one year before all of the holes on FSU's offense come unplugged. They do return their top RB Dalvin Cook, but lost big bruiser Karlos Williams and their top two receivers to the NFL. With their defense also about ready to give out, expect this year to be Florida State's last hurrah unless we see some key developments through the year
Georgia Tech (Image source, Georgia Tech Athletics):
Best Case: 12-0, 8-0
Worst Case: 5-7, 3-5
Toss Up Games *deep breath*: Notre Dame, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia (All projected wins except Clemson)
From 5-7 to 11-1. That's a pretty big projection swing. But that's what you get when your defense has questions, the teams you play have questions, and the schedule isn't doing you any favors (They get FSU, VT and Georgia at home, but the other 4 are road games). Much like Clemson though, they do get plenty of experience coming back on both sides of the ball, which should give them their projection, or at least a 10 win season if they can perform on the road. That triple option will be more than alive this season. College Gameday at Clemson anyone?
Louisville (Image source, Louisville.com):
Best Case: 12-0, 8-0
Worst Case: 8-4, 6-2
Toss Up Games: Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Kentucky (All projected losses except Kentucky)
The only reason that I'm giving Louisville a shot at an undefeated season is that they came to play last season, and most of the players are coming back (And that FSU has some question marks of their own). But Louisville is just another giant question mark in one of the most balanced conferences (Sorry Syracuse and Wake Forest). Some favors are done by getting Clemson at home, but they'll need to prove themselves on the road if they want to be respected nationally.
Miami (Image source, Huffington Post):
Best Case: 12-0, 8-0 (I know I said this wouldn't be the case but the ACC is just too balanced that it could happen with a lot of these teams)
Worst Case: 6-6, 3-5
Toss Up Games: Nebraska (Win), Florida State (Lose), Virginia Tech (Win), Clemson (Lose), Duke (Win), Georgia Tech (Lose)
Now Miami has some actual expectations (sorry Louisville). Brad Kaaya was putting up numbers in his freshman year last year, however he loses quite a few targets to pass the ball to, and the run game won't be as reliable without Duke Johnson behind/next to him. Their defense though, should be a big part of what Miami will be doing next year. If they can figure out their offense quickly, Miami is another team that can be able to make an ACC Title run.
NC State (Image source, boydsbets.com):
Best Case: 9-3, 5-3
Worst Case: 5-7, 1-7
Toss Up Games: Virginia Tech (Win), Boston College (Lose), Syracuse (Win), North Carolina (Lose)
NC State is the weirdo of the ACC. Sometimes they do really cool and amazing things like almost beat Winston and FSU in a shootout, then they turn around and fail to score 20 in their next three losses. To say they have a favorable schedule is one thing, but we won't know which NC State team will show up to those games
(Note: At this point in this post I got really tired of saying the ACC is balanced and we won't know how these teams will perform against each other, so if it feels like these preview paragraphs are getting short, it's because they probably are. Sorry! Perks of doing an entire post in one day instead of working on it for a week, oops.)
North Carolina (Image source, USA Today):
Best Case: 9-3, 6-2
Worst Case: 6-6, 3-5
Toss Up Games: Virginia (Win), Duke (Lose), Virginia Tech (Lose)
See above note please. No offense to any Tar Heel...football fans? Stick to basketball though.
Pittsburgh (Image source, CBS Sports):
Best Case: 5-7, 3-5
Worst Case: 2-10, 0-8
Toss Up Games: Virginia Tech (Lose), Virginia (Lose), Syracuse (Win)
Another reason why these paragraphs are getting shorter is because we are hitting the more irrelevant teams in the ACC alphabetic order. You know, the ones that get ruled out fairly quickly because they stink yet they might throw a surprise our way here and there. Also due to a tough schedule, I wouldn't put any faith in Pitt.
Syracuse (Image source, Syracuse.com):
Best Case: 7-5, 4-4
Toss Up Games: Pittsburgh, NC State, Boston College (All projected losses)
I was very close to giving Central Michigan "Toss Up Game" rights for uhh...reasons such as below:
Ok. But that was a cool play. They missed the 2-pt conversion and saved my computer pick for this bowl but Central Michigan came into that bowl game pretty hot and underrated. Watch out for them.
Virginia (Image source, dailyprogress.com):
Best Case: 5-7, 4-4
Worst Case: 2-10, 1-7
Toss Up Games: Pittsburgh (Win), North Carolina (Lose), Virginia Tech (Win)
Virginia's basketball team isn't the only team on Virginia's campus that can play tough, strict, D. Now only if their offense could be as reliable...having some home games might assist their record.
Virginia Tech (Image source, chatsports.com):
Best Case: 11-1, 8-0
Worst Case: 3-9, 1-7
Toss Up Games *takes another deep breath*: East Carolina (Lose), NC State (Lose), Miami (Lose), Duke (Win), Boston College (Lose), Georgia Tech (Lose), North Carolina (Win), Virginia (Lose)
If it felt like you were reading VT to be a Toss Up Game for every damn ACC team, it's because they are. Don't worry you're not crazy (in that regard). We can either see the VT that upset national champion Ohio State ON THE ROAD (which pro-tip first game for VT is hosting Ohio State), or the VT that lost 6-3 to Wake Forest...in double overtime. A lot of people are expecting the upsetting VT squad (upsetting in a good way) this year and dub last year as a fluke, but I'm more than ok with saying that VT's dog days are over.
Wake Forest (Image source, ESPN):
Lol.
If they lose to Elon I wouldn't be terribly shocked.
ACC Championship Game: Clemson defeating Georgia Tech, Clemson will go on to the national championship playoffs.
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