Ah the All-Star Break. Highlighted by the Home Run Derby and the Celebrity Softball game. Oh, and it’s also the time where the best players from each
league duke it out to see which division will win home field advantage for the
World Series. It makes me wonder though if there are any players from really
bad teams that know they won’t be anywhere close to making the playoffs that
will try their best to throw the game just to mess with any teams in their
division that do have a shot at making it that far. Would that be bad
sportsmanship? Probably. But sounds like something I would do. The AL holds the
rights to host Game 7 as they beat the NL 6-3, but we need to now ask, what AL
team would truly benefit from this? Aka, who will be playing in the World
Series?
The other cool thing I like about the All-Star Break is that
sometimes the team who is leading at the break, won’t when it matters at the
end of the season. So that’s what I decided to look at to answer the question
above. I took the last decade’s worth of data and took their splits from the
All-Star Break to the end of the season (Took how many games they were over
.500 and compared). The usual trend is that if a team is doing good at the
break, they’ll likely be holding a similar record at the end of the season, if
not taking their record to extreme heights (I.e, the Yankees, who have been dominant
in the decade, average a +14 game split, going as high as +30. The amazing
thing with the Yankees too is that even when they have been struggling as of
late, their lowest split was +1. Plus freaking one. They didn’t make the
playoffs that year but that’s still phenomenal given the other numbers in this
set that I may post later) But of course it could work the other way too. Two
numbers that stuck out were a -5 by the 2005 Padres and a -4 by the 2006 St.
Louis team that shall never be named, both teams won the division with a
negative split. Now yes I see having a split of -5 to +5 is actually average,
but compared to the rest of the division winners, and even some of the
runner-up teams, a split like that usually won’t get you anywhere.
But here’s the whacky thing about this season. It feels like
there are only a few good teams, everyone else, and two really bad teams (sorry
Brewers and Phillies fans). So anything can happen! Each team seems to be so
close to each other that one sweep could make or break a season in the long
run. So let’s get into it after I’m sure you were enthralled from reading my
silly methods of madness:
(Apologies if some of the standings look ugly, Blogger is anti-tab friendly/I'm still getting used to figuring it out)
AL East:
ASB Standings:
Yankees 48-40 X
Rays 46-45 3.5 GB
Orioles 44-44 4 GB
Blue Jays 45-46 4.5 GB
Red Sox 42-47 6.5 GB
The AL East is currently the tightest division as the last
place Red Sox are only 6.5 games back despite being 5 games under .500 (See NL
Central for example, where the 3rd place Cubs are 8 games back of
the lead, yet 7 games over .500 with a 1 game lead in the second Wild Card) And
this division will probably end up with a tight finish in the last month of the
season. Each team has an opportunity to win 80 games, which for ALL FIVE to do
that is remarkable. However, I will have to give the edge to the Yankees on
this one, again mostly leaning on historical numbers, to win the division and
steal that playoff spot. It might take some effort to nab a Wild Card spot from
this division as there are some pretty strong teams in the AL (which we’ll get
there)
Projected: Yankees over Rays by about 4-8 Games
Yankees 90-72 X
Rays 84-78 6 GB
Blue Jays 82-80 8 GB
Red Sox 80-82 10 GB
Orioles 79-83 11 GB
Which even still to have the last place team be about 11
games back is still quite a feat to show how strong a division really is, even
if the team is not happy with their results. This’ll probably be the one
division I’ll miss as it is close enough where anything can happen (One Red Sox
sweep of the Yankees and look they’re in the middle of the pack almost)
Otherwise, Yankees are the only team that have a reasonable shot at winning
90+, rest will be around the 80 win mark.
AL Central:
ASB Standings:
Royals 52-34 X
Twins 49-40 4.5 GB
Tigers 44-44 9 GB
Indians 42-46 11 GB
White Sox 41-45 11 GB
Now here we have some surprises. The Twins, THE TWINS, are 9
games over .500 and within a sweep of coming close to leading the division over
THE ROYALS. Now yes I know the Royals went to the World Series last year so I
shouldn’t be too surprised, but if you look how far they’ve come in the past
decade, it’s quite the accomplishment for them. So this is where things get
interesting. Historically when the Twins don’t stink, they tend to run away
with their second half (+22 in 2006, +10 in 2009, +22 in 2010, all winning the
division) and here we have the Royals who in the past two years posted a +16
and +14 split, so they’re no slouch either. I make it sound like that this is
only a two team race, and I do mean it to sound like that. The White Sox will
fold, the Indians aren’t getting as good of a year they hoped for, and when the
Tigers are average, they’ll remain average historically (and besides, their
bullpen is more of a pigsty than a bullpen this season)
Projected: A very close race between the Twins and Royals.
Loser gets a Wild Card.
Twins 91-71 X
Royals 90-72 1 GB (Wild Card)
Tigers 80-82 11 GB
Indians 79-83 12 GB
White Sox 76-86 15 GB
Royals and Twins can get to 90 (and honestly I hope they do,
I like the kinds of teams that stink for the longest time then decide to have a
good season out of the blue, even though the Royals have been good the past two years) The other three can get to 80 wins, but at the
same time a sub-80 win season can also be expected from all three. Expect a fun
fight between the Royals and Twins toward the end of the season though.
AL West:
ASB Standings:
Angels 48-40 X
Astros 49-42 .5 GB
Rangers 42-46 6 GB
Mariners 41-48 7.5 GB
Athletics 41-50 8.5 GB
Tough turn around for the Athletics who had the best record
in baseball at the break last year, now is occupying the spot formerly held by
the surprising Astros. I shouldn’t say surprising, they’ve been farming for
some years now and they are reaping the benefits from doing so (even those
thieves from St. Louis wanted in on what the Astros were/are doing). They were
leading the division for the longest time until they went on a 6-game losing
streak and gave it up to the Angels on the last day. Oh well, can’t win them
all. Much like the Central though, this is another two-team race where the
loser will probably get the second Wild Card between the Angels and Astros.
Projected: A very close race between the Angels and Astros.
Loser gets Wild Card
Angels 90-72 X
Astros 89-73 1 GB (Wild Card)
Rangers 81-81 9 GB
Athletics 79-83 11 GB
Mariners 74-88 16 GB
Again, expect Angels and Astros to hover around the 90-win
mark, Rangers could see a sub-80 season, and we finally get to see our first
team that could be flirting with a 90-loss season, the Mariners.
NL East:
ASB Standings:
Nationals 48-39 X
Mets 47-42 2 GB
Braves 42-47 7 GB
Marlins 38-51 11 GB
Phillies 29-62 21 GB
Phillies fans are already probably reeling enough from
turning in their worst performance before the All-Star Break in franchise
history, so I won’t make note of that (Oops). But shout out to the Mets, more
specifically the David Wright-less Mets, 5 games over .500 and in prime
position to strike against Scherzer & Harper Co.— I mean the Nationals.
It’ll be tough to catch the Nationals, considering the Nationals don’t fold
after the break, especially when they’re good (posted +19, +9, +21 splits the
past three years respectively. And they’ve only posted one negative year where
they didn’t wind up last in the division, a whopping -1 in 2011). But the Mets
would be the only team that look poise enough to threaten the Nationals and the
Wild Card, as the Braves are turning in a sub-par season, the Marlins keep
getting injured (hip-hip hurray for the return of Fernandez however), and well,
again, I’ll do my best to not mention the Stinkies
Projected: Nationals over the Mets by about 4-8 Games
Nationals 89-73 X
Mets 83-79 6 GB (Wild Card Contender)
Braves 81-81 8 GB
Marlins 73-89 16 GB
Stinkies 71-91 18 GB
If there are any offended Marlins fans that think their team
will be as bad as the Phillies, please note that my projection is historical
and the Phillies have a really high historical split (+10) which is affecting
their record projection (Trust me I’ve adjusted for this for other teams too,
incorporating recent success (or for the Phillies case a lack of) and similar season
splits). They’ll be a sub-70 win team easy, but Marlins fans be weary too. Stay
healthy and you too can avoid the sub-70 wins.
NL Central:
ASB Standings:
St. Louis 56-33 X
Pirates 53-35 2.5 GB
Cubs 47-40 8 GB
Reds 39-47 15.5 GB
Brewers 38-52 18.5 GB
It perplexes me. With how many injuries St. Louis has had,
they are STILL one of the best. Like how. I can’t even. Fortunately, there must
be a baseball god out there as they limped into the All-Star Break over the
past two weeks and saw their 8 some game lead go poof to 2.5, which saw them
lose four straight games for the first time this season (Now apparently the
Dodgers are the only team yet to suffer such a long losing streak). As much as
I would really really really really REEAALLLLY love to see them limp even
further out of the break, sadly it won’t happen (There’s no bias here
whatsoever, I have NO IDEA what you’re all talking about). But hey, the Pirates are within striking distance and the good ol' Cubbies are looking good as well (again, no bias, don't know what you guys are saying)
Projection: St. Louis over the Pirates by about 4-8 Games
St. Louis 95-67 X
Pirates 89-73 6 GB (Wild Card)
Cubs 86-76 9 GB (Wild Card Contender)
Reds 76-86 19 GB
Brewers 74-88 21 GB
As much as I really want to see St. Louis fall face first (no bias), it seems like they will be the only team in the league that can threaten the 100 win threshold. If the Pirates can continue their great pace, they will for sure get one of the Wild Card spots. Should St. Louis continue their struggles coming out of the All-Star Break (which please baseball gods if you are listening make this happen...not biased), then we could see a fight between the Pirates and St. Louis for the NL Central which would make for some great TV. Cubs look poise for the second Wild Card spot, Reds and Brewers, better luck next year.
NL West:
ASB Standings:
Dodgers 51-39 X
Giants 46-43 4.5 GB
Diamondbacks 42-45 7.5 GB
Padres 41-49 10 GB
Rockies 39-49 11 GB
The always fascinating NL West is the only division with a clear run away at this point in the season, so, congrats Dodgers. That is until the Giants call your number again and sweep you (The Giants are 9-3 vs the Dodgers this year, watch yourselves!) But the Giants can be in a position for a Wild Card spot if they can continue some positive momentum, but it is unlikely
Projections: Dodgers over Giants by about 4-8 Games (Wow I didn't notice that all of the other "non-close divisions" had a 4-8 Game spread, oops.)
Dodgers 89-73 X
Giants 83-79 6 GB (Wild Card Contender)
Diamondbacks 79-83 10 GB
Padres 77-85 12 GB
Rockies 74-88 15 GB
Playoffs:
So what does this mean for the playoffs?
AL Wild Card:
Astros @ Royals - Royals win, sorry Astros, give it another year though! Almost there!
AL Divisional:
Royals @ Twins - Royals in 4
Yankees @ Angels - Angels Sweep (In 3)
ALCS:
Royals @ Angels - Royals in 6. It's really hard to go against the Royals, they play tough defense and hold a very balanced offense that should get them through the AL with relative ease.
NL Wild Card:
Cubs @ Pirates - Pirates win :( - I mean not biased at all...
NL Divisional:
Pirates @ St. Louis - Pirates in 4 (Maybe I should root for the Pirates in the Wild Card...I mean not biased at all...)
Dodgers @ Nationals - Nationals in 5 (This'll be a fun series)
NLCS:
Pirates @ Nationals - Nationals in 6. The Pirates can threaten, and if they can get St. Louis they can compete with the Nationals, I just believe the Nationals are a more complete team than St. Louis (Cue hate "Well if the Nationals are better then why do they have a worse record?!?!?!" (This hate will come from one friend, now THAT, I can predict.)) (I was actually under the influence that St. Louis has played a significantly easier schedule, but after running them vs. the Cubs schedule (no bias) I was quickly proven wrong, but I would be willing to run it for all the teams and post it for funsies)
WORLD SERIES: Nationals @ Royals - ....
Royals in 6.
These are only mid-season projections and baseball is a hella whacky sport. So if ANY of these come true I'll be amazed. Expect some more accurate projections come this postseason (and probably the next time I'll actually post about baseball)
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