Friday Night Lights (vs. Regular Illinois)

Recap:

Thus far, this has been the most complete game Nebraska has played this year. It still wasn't pretty by any means, but it's a start, right...?

So much for that touted defense Rutgers was supposed to have though. Again, this game was more on Tanner's inability to make consistent drives as he threw yet another pick six, leading the nation with 9 interceptions for the season. A little more than 2 per game on average is NOT good, especially considering he's also only thrown 7 TDs. You want more TD than INT buddy. However, he did good enough to get through Rutgers, which is nice because now Nebraska is undefeated and leading the Big Ten West with a .500 record. Woohoo!

The personnel arrangements also looked spectacular as Nebraska played a healthy mix of Wilbon, who actually did great, and Ozigbo, who also did great, as expected. With some sprinkles of whoever that third freshman was, I think the committee approach was a great way to keep each of them fresh and the defense guessing. Wilbon, being a smaller back, was able to find great holes that the line was creating, while Ozigbo just plows right through them.

And there's another point for the offensive line! Woo! Creating holes for the backs and giving Lee all the time in the world to throw his interceptions...really the only bad play all across the board on both sides of the ball came from Tanner on Saturday, and that's not the best news because the QB is easily the most important role on the team. We need to see more Arkansas State Tanner Lee, unless that version was a phony, then Nebraska has a mess on their hands. If Tanner is still seeing play time, then that has to ask some questions about Riley's supposed golden boy, Patrick O'Brien. Is Patrick somehow worse, or is he sincerely not ready? If he is worse, then why is Riley still recruiting? You can see where this domino effect is heading.

I'm still all aboard the "Keep Riley for a bit" train, although my faith in him and Tanner has been dwindling fairly quickly. Coach McDreamy has turned the defense around, so let's see if Mr. Nice Guy can turn the rest of the team around.

The Big Red Breakdown:

We got football on a Friday night folks, and no it's not whatever silly show that's being taken down from Netflix. We got a real life, hard fought game between two Big Ten teams that'll surely bring in those Friday night ratings of...uhh...Nebraska and Illinois? I'm all for experimentation of schedules and shit, but I'm glad the Big Ten figured out this would be a dud pretty quickly. How else am I going to get my disappointment on Saturday? Watch another team's disappointing season? Go to a bar? Look in the mirror?

Anyway, I'm trying to assess Illinois here, and it's pretty tough to get a read on them, because of one of their wins. They beat Western Kentucky pretty soundly a few weeks ago, which is surprising because Western Kentucky is usually one of the better G5 teams, and they returned mostly the same stack from last year's 11 win team. Which when you look at that, makes Illinois's win pretty impressive. But Western Kentucky in turn had to scrap up against Eastern Kentucky (FCS) and comeback against Ball State as their two wins on the season thus far...Illinois in turn got their ass handed to by South Florida, and haven't really played much prominence outside of those two games.

So I'm not sure how to assess Illinois. Preseason they seemed like a lock for Nebraska, early season more of a wait, hold on now. But now. Yeah. Based on both teams performances, I don't know. Which isn't good, remember the last time Nebraska went to Illinois? It really does just look like that Illinois is just there, and shouldn't pose much of a threat, but the last time we underrated a team with Illinois in their name, that didn't end quite too well now did it?

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Illinois D: Edge Nebraska. Until we see better promise out of Tanner Lee, I don't think I'll give Nebraska's offense anything higher than the edge

Nebraska D vs. Illinois O: Advantage Nebraska. I wish we kept track of an adjusted defense scoring in football that doesn't count any defensive touchdowns (pick sixes, fumble recoveries, etc) or special teams plays. Since the second half of Oregon, Nebraska has only "allowed" 17 points to opposing offenses (0 for one half of Oregon, 7 to Northern Illinois, and 10 to Rutgers), good for 6.8 points per game when adjusted (half of Oregon plus the two full games). Overall, Nebraska has "allowed" a modest 22 points per game, a full touchdown/extra point less than their actual average. Which means Nebraska is allowing an average of one defensive touchdown per game (Arkansas State punt return, 2 pick sixes from Northern Illinois, 1 pick six from Rutgers, which checks out). Illinois is not that special on offense, so the defense shouldn't have too much to worry about.

Special Teams: Needs to be a bit more special, maybe it's time to try out JD Spielman as full time returner

Prediction: Setting aside the black magic that happened last time Nebraska was here, this should be another fine game if everyone plays course. Including the black magic that happened last time, well who knows how many pick sixes Tanner throws. The last thing Nebraska needs to do is look ahead to the next two death weeks.

Nebraska 27, Illinois 17 (the scores reflects a closer game, but remember we need to account for one pick six. And yes I know that's the same score as last week shush.)

(If anyone is wondering the process I take with finding pictures as my "cover"; I usually just go with the most ridiculous one I haven't used through Google. Or relevancy if possible. Or both!)

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

I've somewhat given up on my other short term rankings that I normally do. Takes too much effort for my patience currently until I can think of another, easier way to incorporate a strength of schedule (maybe I'll have to resort to arbitrary numbers provided by ESPN, bleh). I am very content with how the regression is turning out, considering I just pull the offensive stats and defensive stats into Excel, combine and overwrite them on my master sheet that has the regression formula properly referenced, then bam. Takes no more than 10 minutes. Science yo.

Regression Rankings:

Fine, I guess we can have Central Florida included, but they've only played 2 games. Still not including actual win predictions as the Top 10 is still slated for over 15, but since that number is headed in the right direction, we should be good for official-ness next week. Nebraska is currently repping a solid 6.44 wins, so take that for what it is worth

* = Central Florida was technically #1 last week, the changes reflect the fact they were left off and not considered

1) Central Florida (New*)
2) Washington (-)
3) Wisconsin (Up 6)
4) Alabama (Up 15)
5) TCU (Up 2)
6) Penn State (Down 5)
7) Oklahoma (Up 1)
8) Virginia Tech (Up 8)
9) Minnesota (Up 5)
10) Oregon (Down 6)
11) Wake Forest (Down 5)
12) Miami (Up 3)
13) Clemson (Up 4)
14) UTSA (Up 4)
15) Kansas State (Up 5)
16) South Florida (New)
17) Oklahoma State (Down 12)
18) Duke (Down 6)
19) Texas Tech (Down 6)
20) West Virginia (Up 5)
21) Washington State (New)
22) Utah (-)
23) Auburn (New)
24) Arizona (Down 13)
25) Georgia (New)
...
85) Nebraska (Up 7)
...
95) Illinois
...
126) Georgia Southern (New)
127) Charlotte (Down 1**)
128) San Jose State (New)
129) UTEP (Up 1**)
130) East Carolina^ (Down 1**)

 ** = We can assume that Central Florida would not have been a Bottom 5 team. UTEP was last week's worst team, but at 129th, since Central Florida was omitted. So even though they are still at 129th, they moved up from not the worst team ever

^ = Because of Hurricane Irma and thus, a really fucked up American Conference schedule, East Carolina and Uconn played a game on Sunday that was not recognized by the site I get my data from, as it was originally supposed to be played in like late October. So it was not reflected. Hopefully next week it will be.

Should these rankings be reflective, here are the current championship match-ups!

Pac-12: Washington vs. Utah (North vs. South)
Big Ten: Wisconsin vs. Penn State (West vs. East)
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Big 12: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest (Coastal vs. Atlantic)
Best G5 Team: UTSA

***Editors Note***: It has occurred to me on my way back from work that yes, Central Florida is indeed the best G5 team. However I still view it as a faux pas given their screwy schedule. I blame the Friday night game and having to put this up a day earlier as the fault in this. But the point my model is making still stands, no one is giving a shit about UTSA and they might be quietly having a good season.


SMH of the Week:

Boise State! Yall just got destroyed by Virginia at home. Not Virginia Tech, not West Virginia. Plain old Virginia. A natural force in the G5 picture and yall lose to one of the ACC's bottom bitch at home? SMH Boise State

Hero of the Week:

Syracuse! Despite the loss to LSU, they actually just opened a can of worms that I'll be getting into later. Why is this worthy of praise? Chaos is fun! Especially when it involves debunking potential overrated-ness in the SEC.

Over(rated)Watch:

#5 USC - Exposed. Yep. Let's bring it in folks. USC continues to struggle for whatever reason, and Darnold is just behind Tanner Lee for most interceptions in the nation. Not a list you want to be on, especially when one of the lists you were on was "Pre-Season Heisman Hype". They play Washington State Friday night in what will be a very fascinating game, and prime opportunity for more exposure. Or, prime opportunity to tell me to f off.

#7 Georgia - Being Watched Even More. Alright so here is where the SEC gets fun. Georgia's ranked lives now depend on themselves, Notre Dame, and fucking Syracuse. Why? Georgia just blew out Mississippi State, and yes, I know I said "if there's a blow out then we need to strongly consider that team". So why am I going back on my word? Because maybe Mississippi State wasn't as good as we once thought. Why? Because they blew out LSU, which at the time was super impressive. Now, not so much. Why? LSU almost lost to Syracuse. At home. So congrats LSU, you guys suck now. But that brings us full circle to Georgia to where now their only legitimate game thus far is a close win at Notre Dame. And well, I personally think Notre Dame is overrated. For the sake of Georgia, they better not be. Georgia plays Tennessee this week, so a loss or close win there spells trouble.

#12 Virginia Tech - Being Watched. Let's see how they handle Clemson...

#13 Auburn - Being Watched. Anything higher than 15 is anarchy I say! They play Mississippi State, so we're about to hear from one of these two teams

No one proved their worth from last week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #24 Mississippi State, NR Florida State

Prediction Center:

Another 2-1 week since TCU learned to play offense, but still #winning, which means we are at 11-3 (3-0, 4-1, 2-1, 2-1) for the season. We're finally getting into some meatier games, which means I might not be #winning for long.

USC @ Washington State - USC 34, Washington State 31

Boy. It is really hard to not pick Washington State at home given how shitty USC has played this season. But this is also the type of game that I can see Washington State falling flat on their ass while Darnold returns to Heisman form. Should be a quality #Pac12AfterDark moment though

Mississippi State @ Auburn - Mississippi State 24, Auburn 14

Thank god Auburn still can't score on offense, otherwise this would be a bad look on a team that could be exposed for overrated-ness!

Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 27

Game of the night. Clemson has been quality, but VT is seeking that big win to put them in the ACC conversation, and at home. Does the inexperience of Clemson's offense on the road choke up? They looked good in Louisville.

Just Getting Started (vs. Rutgers)

Recap:

*takes a deep breath*

*takes a shot*

*takes another deep breath*

So let's look at the positives. The defense maintained their momentum from the second half of the Oregon game, and aside from the lone touchdown drive, played pretty damn well. Mind you, Northern Illinois was playing their back up QB and sans their top receiver. But that is super promising heading into Big Ten play if they can maintain that level of play. The coverage looked significantly better, so it looks like those memos I keep sending about not giving receivers 7-10 yards of space at the line are going through. Yay.

What ISN'T super promising, is what was supposed to be decent this year, and that's the damn offense, the play calling, and just about everything associated with it. HoLee shit. Only the third game in and I'm already saying Tre Bryant is their offensive MVP because Nebraska absolutely took a nose dive without him in the game. I will save some of their face briefly though, and that is with the first drive. The first drive looked extremely promising and about what I expected would have been the general flow of the game as Nebraska moved the ball very well. Until they got to the red zone, and well, most of you reading this know what happened. But let's break that down. Is that entirely Lee's fault? Sure, he threw the ball after all. But that was a damn good read by the defender, and mind you, the one thing I did praise Northern Illinois for was having an above average defense, especially in the against the pass department.

BUT, I still say if Lee had better awareness, he doesn't make that throw and the pick six doesn't happen. If the pick six doesn't happen, do you think the game goes differently? I think so. What I've seen from Tanner thus far is a much worse Tommy Armstrong. "Well how can you get worse than Armstrong?" Tommy at least had his legs as a viable option to bail him out of shitty situations. With Tanner, that is not the case, no matter how much yelling we all do to tell him to run and pick up a few fucking yards instead of forcing a YOLO Bomb. And that's extremely problematic. Lee is a fucking statue in the pocket, AND when you combine that with his shitty decision making skills and his likingness to stick to one receiver/failure to improvise, ESPECIALLY under pressure or behind in the game, you get fiascos like Northern Illinois. Personally, if the first pick six doesn't happen and Nebraska winds up with (most likely) a touchdown, maybe field goal, Lee wouldn't be playing from behind and trying to play hero. Because when Tanner has tried to play hero these past three games, there has been more bad than good. You see with Legstrong, he could roll out, run around, and as long as he stuck to running, mostly good things happened. His YOLO Bombs on the run were (somehow) magically better than his normal "go deep, Westerkamp" YOLO Bombs, and I think I'm starting to miss that improvisation. Lee for whatever reason just loves his pocket on this worn out pair of jeans that we're calling the offensive line.

Which brings me to problem #2, the offensive line is doing zero favors for Lee to be comfortable in his pocket that he wants to be comfortable in. Either Lee needs to learn to not be a statue on the other side of a crumbling wall (very unlikely to happen), or the offensive line needs to get better at protection. WAY too many times I've seen defenders just blow by the line, or the line just completely misses their assignment. Another thing Bryant is good at is picking up blocks when he is not involved in the play. Good RB. And speaking of RBs, the line has been ok at creating holes for our RB, but right now I'm putting that more on Bryant's ability than the line's ability. Wilbon went pretty much nowhere againts Northern Illinois (90 yards on 24 carries, 3.75 average), where one of his runs was a 25 yarder. So if you take that out you're looking at a 2.82 average, which barely gets you first downs if you ran the same play four times. Not the greatest.

Which leads to problem #3, personnel issues. WHERE THE HELL WAS OZIGBO?! I'm seriously missing some memos here, because I never heard he was hurt. What happened to where the very successful backup/sometimes starter from last year, in line to start this year, gets demoted to THIRD STRING? I initially questioned why he wasn't starting in favor of Bryant, but that got answered because "oh shit, Bryant is pretty damn good". But how in the hell does Wilbon hop Ozigbo? Wilbon is a great pass catching back sure, but he is not ready to be an every down back, and he is CERTAINLY NOT a power running back. Way too many times where it was X and <2 where all Nebraska needed to do was have Ozigbo push it through. NOPE. Wilbon. Loss or no gain. You'd think after a half of minimal success with Wilbon running, you'd make a change, right? Ozigbo only saw two carries, back-to-back, in the third quarter. Crowd went nuts when he went into the game so it sounds like I'm definitely not alone in this opinion. But then poof. Whatever though.

The Big Red Breakdown:

That leads us into this weekend, on the heels of firing Eichorst finally. That was a move that needed to be made a few years ago, yet somehow I was surprised at the timing of the firing still. On a Thursday? Like, after a game or on the following Monday I can understand, but a random ass Thursday three games into the season? Ok. I'll take it, but still surprised. But that puts Riley in a very interesting situation, because if we look at the schedule; Nebraska has Rutgers, @Illinois (on a Friday), Wisconsin, and Ohio State before heading into a bye week. Pre-season Nebraska would be looking at 3-1, maybe 2-2, maybe 4-0 for that four game stretch. But we have entered some Twilight Zone timeline where Nebraska could very well go 0-4 in this stretch. And it starts with Rutgers on Saturday. Personally, I think Riley keeps his job through the next year for recruiting purposes, but definitely behind the scenes Nebraska needs to be considering their coaching options. BUT. If Riley keeps losing the games he's supposed to be winning, then an end-of-year fire, or even mid-season if it gets that bad, could be in the realm of possibility.

But let's look at Rutgers since they're up to the plate first. Afternoon game, homecoming, and I'm still slightly concerned that Rutgers has a legit chance of winning. Because this year's Rutgers team doesn't suck for once *confetti*! Mind you, of the three games they played, two were against inferior foes BUT, instead of losing badly to them like normal Rutgers fashion, they lost closely to an underrated, up and coming G5 team in Eastern Michigan, AND ACTUALLY BLEW OUT AN FCS TEAM WHAT?! The Rutgers I'm used to seeing keeps it close with FCS teams, if not losing to them. This year's edition actually blew one out of the fucking water, props to you Rutgers! And they played very competitively against Washington, who right now is leading the Pac-12 in "Most Competent Team" points.

The part that really REALLY scares me, is their apparently good run defense. With Bryant confirmed to be out, this could get problematic if Nebraska is still dumb enough to play Wilbon over Ozigbo. And even then Ozigbo or Bryant might see some struggles. Rutgers ain't fucking around this year. Like we're talking 20th best run defense in the nation type shit. Yikes. As it stands, Wisconsin is the only team on Nebraska's schedule that has a better run defense, but that's expected for Wisconsin, not so much from Rutgers. (For reference, Northern Illinois currently ranks 23rd, but I'm betting Nebraska helped with that with their shit show performance). What is Rutgers tradition though, is a really shitty offense, as Rutgers only returns their third/fourth string RBs and WRs as their starters, so they're experienced, but not exactly flashy, something the seemingly new Nebraska defense can put away modestly. Hopefully. It's weird how much of a 180 Nebraska has taken from praising the offense and hating the defense. Oh well, so goes life.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs Rutgers D: Edge Rutgers. The way Nebraska has been playing, there are two problems. Without Bryant, they cannot lean against the run if this Rutgers defense is as advertised. Which then means Tanner Lee can't suck. Which means the O-Line needs to not suck at protecting him. Too many variables on Nebraska's side if Rutgers puts up a fight here. Even with a healthy Bryant, this might be a doozy.

Nebraska D vs Rutgers O: Advantage Nebraska. Thankfully, Rutgers isn't special on offense, and since the second half of Oregon, the only glaring weakness I've seen from Nebraska is defending the edges, as is tradition. That's been a consistent issue that hopefully can get mitigated, but I do not see Rutgers taking a huge advantage of that.

Special Teams: A little less De'Mornay please. Seriously what were you doing bro

Prediction: Please don't fuck this up. For the sake of every Husker fan. If they do, then Riley's ass is probably on the way out the door. Nebraska has too much talent to be at the bottom of the conference, let's not start by losing to the perennial basement dwellers, despite how possibly decent they've gotten.

Nebraska 31, Rutgers 20

The Rest of the World in College Football:

So I said I would maybe hang on to releasing some personal rankings, but I've enjoyed what the Regression formula has spat out; so I'm posting that! Even though it is not perfect as there are still teams that have only played two or even one game, I like the direction that this is shaping out to be. I also cannot give win estimates still as again, with the small sample size and the lack of competitive games across the board, the regression is still giving numbers that can't be possible. Which, for right now, is a flaw, because how this works is that we run the stats against the wins, and since I can't technically set a hard limit on how many wins a team can get, we still see some weird things (I.e, the only 20-win team in Air Force got filtered out finally, but the Top 25 all have 13+ wins, which is mathematically impossible for ALL of them to achieve 13 win seasons. The maximum for one team is 15 or 16, 12 or 13 regular season games, championship game, then winning the two playoff games. Additionally, the bottom 5 teams have negative wins, which again, isn't possible, but damn if it was they probably would achieve that.)

The other short-term rankings might still need a week. These rankings also lean heavy towards offensive minded teams, but defense still does play a role. Personally, I like how it gives light to some of the more underrated teams in the nation, whether or not that holds any merit is yet to be seen, as again we've barely played three, mostly non-conference games. Expect the level of competitiveness to increase for more accurate results.

Regression Rankings:
**Central Florida is technically #1, but they've only played 1 game due to Hurricane Irma, so they've been cast out**


1. Penn State
2. Washington
3. Maryland
4. Oregon
5. Oklahoma State
6. Wake Forest
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma
9. Wisconsin
10. Mississippi State
11. Arizona
12. Duke
13. Texas Tech
14. Minnesota
15. Miami
16. Virginia Tech
17. Clemson
18. UTSA
19. Alabama
20. Kansas State
21. Vanderbilt
22. Utah
23. Houston
24. Colorado
25. West Virginia
...
44. Rutgers
...
92. Nebraska
...
125. Charlotte
126. Bowling Green
127. Georgia State
128. East Carolina
129. UTEP

There are 130 teams in FBS, and since we're throwing one out as an outlier, we get 129! The only problem with doing a regressional analysis against wins, is the fact that we can't tell it which teams play who, hence why we see Kansas State still above Vanderbilt, despite the upset last week

Should these rankings be reflective, these would be the current championship games!

Pac-12: Washington vs. Arizona (North vs South)
Big 12: Oklahoma State vs. TCU (Top 2)
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (East vs West)
SEC: Mississippi State vs. Vanderbilt (West vs East)
ACC: Wake Forest vs. Duke (Atlantic vs Coastal)
Best G5 Team: UTSA

SMH of the Week:

LSU. Yikes. Unsure if completely exposed, or we just created a new SEC threat in Mississippi State, we will see our Bulldog "friends" later...either way, losing by 30 to an unranked team as a near top-10 team is not a good look for anyone. SMH LSU.

Hero of the Week:

A good number of closely contested "upsets" this week, but we're going to go a different route and call out Oregon as our Hero this week. They have yet to attempt a 2-pt conversion this year, and they're 3-0. Coincidence? I think not. New coach, new direction.

Over(rated)watch:

#5. USC - Being Watched Even More. Double overtime to beat Texas at home is not a good look on ya buddy. Heisman hopefully Darnold with 6 INT already (1 less than Tanner!). Let's see if they can pull away in an open Pac-12, or fall to parity. USC plays California this week.

#11. Georgia - Being Watched. Let's be a little careful with some of these non-Alabama SEC teams. Georgia shows promise, but they have a very young offense that's primarily highlighted by Nick Chubb. Georgia hasn't quite proved themselves yet, but the promise exists at least. Georgia gets Mississippi State in what will be an interesting game to watch.

#12. Florida State - See Last Week. So apparently I can't read, Florida State plays NC State this week.

#13. Virginia Tech - Being Watched. They proved their worth a little bit, but not quite #13 worthy just yet. They get another cake in Old Dominion this week.

#17. Mississippi State - Being Watched. Whoa now. Overreaction much? Sure beating LSU by 30 is pretty damn impressive, but let's pump the breaks and see how they handle Georgia before we're calling them the Alabama slayers this year.

Proven their worth from last week: #6 Oklahoma State, #7 Washington
Properly taken care of, but still being low-key watched: #10 Ohio State, NR Tennessee, NR UCLA

Prediction Center:

Another winning week at 2-1, but at what cost? (Eichorst's job apparently). 9-2 on the year and we got a couple doozies this week with conference play starting

TCU @ Oklahoma State - OK State 45, TCU 31

So Oklahoma State is your typical Big 12 team. High flying offense, minimal defense. Where as TCU is the opposite, not so great offense, but a reliable defense. Their defense isn't as great as it once was however, I think OK State breaks TCU, and TCU doesn't have the firepower to keep up

Mississippi State @ Georgia - Georgia 24, Miss State 20

Battle of potentially overrated teams, but should make for a good game because I think both teams are quality, just not...great. IF one of these teams does end up winning badly, then it is time to take said team seriously

Vs. The Easier Team from Illinois

Recap:

I have a love/hate relationship with losses like these. I knew Nebraska was more than likely going to lose, but I didn't expect it to be 42-14 by the end of the first half. Yeesh. Consequently, I did not expect Nebraska to make that furious of a comeback, ultimately to get my hopes up and quickly dash them. Le sigh.

I was expecting the Oregon game to be more of a 7-0, 7-7, 14-7, 14-14 etc etc type shootout, building up to the eventual 42-35 loss, but this was a tale of two Nebraska squads that I was hoping they would do away from this year. First half Husker's featured what was somewhat expected, a slightly competent offense, but an abysmal defense, as Oregon went up 42-14. Lee threw two interceptions in that first half, but that first pick was not his fault. Stanley has to catch that shit. Would that have prevented the ensuing touchdown? Maybe, Oregon only netted 14 points off turnovers compared to Nebraska's lone touchdown conversion. So the 42 that was put up might be a little inflated, because truthfully, aside from the pass defense that is always atrocious, Nebraska's defense played alright. And that showed up in the second half. From allowing 42 points, to pitching a complete half shutout against a high-octane Oregon offense, that is a hell of a turn around. Unfortunately, when the defense showed up, the offense decided to sputter after the first half of that third quarter, and Tanner Lee got exposed a little bit. Two of the four picks he ended up throwing were indeed his fault, one of them looked like it just went straight to the defender. Now again, let's not totally overreact, I still think Lee is a good quarterback in the right offense, but he did look like he was trying too hard toward the end which ultimately costed Nebraska the game.

What we SHOULD pick on, is the god damn defense. Oregon is a run-heavy team. Their top 3 running backs all RETURNED (Benoit rushed for 300 last year, Brooks-James almost netted 800, and Freeman got close to 1000, while being injured), Freeman is also seeking to have a Heisman campaign. The rush was expected, and proudly netted a modest 201. What bugs me, is how the hell does a run-heavy team still rip apart a secondary for 313 pass yards...IN THE FIRST HALF. Oregon has never been a pass-minded team, and to make matters worse, they only returned one starting receiver. HOW ARE THEY SO BAD UGH. Now again, they did a great job of tightening up in the second half. But that leads to the next question. While I appreciate these mid-game adjustments to the "bend dont break" mentality, why can't they just not break to begin with, and play like they did in the second half the entire game? I saw less cushions for the receivers and better ball tracking and tackling, WHY CAN'T THEY MAINTAIN THAT?!

The Big Red Breakdown:

Sigh. Again. I expected them to lose, but those kinds of games where they are close to victory and blow opportunities are frustrating. Fortunately for Nebraska, they get to take their frustrations out on Northern Illinois, in what should be Nebraska's easiest game on the schedule this year (Yeah I know, Rutgers and Purdue look competent this year! And depending how Illinois does tonight, we might lose to them! Woo!). Northern Illinois hasn't been relevant since their 10+ win campaigns with Jordan Lynch under center, and the trend should continue. I originally thought about not doing much research on them, but I get bored at work, and well, the research only confirmed what I figured, with a couple surprising notes.

Just at a glance, the 1-1 Huskies barely lost to Boston College, and squared away an FCS team. I'd say that is roughly average for a mediocre G5 team, so nothing surprising there. BUT, Northern Illinois is boasting a competent defense (or at least as competent as you can get for a G5 team). Primarily focusing on shutting down the pass however, which is unfortunate that Nebraska can't 100% abuse their slightly worse run defense due to the absence of Tre Bryant. So I'm expecting some tightness on that side of the ball for a bit, but nothing that Nebraska can't break out of based on what they have shown thus far. On the offensive side of the ball, Northern Illinois is fielding their backup-QB as well as lacking their main receiver. So maybe the secondary catches a break this time. Maybe.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs Northern Illinois D: Advantage Nebraska. Expect some early game struggles, especially without Tre Bryant. But once settled in, this should be a routine slaughter.

Nebraska D vs Northern Illinois O: Advantage Nebraska. Nothing fancy here, maybe this will be the game that the secondary regains their confidence.

Special Teams: More De'Mornay please

Prediction: (Below) Average G5 team coming into Lincoln with nothing too special about them going against a motivated Nebraska team that wants to regain their track into any potential Big Ten bids. Let's work on some fundamentals before Big Ten play pleaaaaassssseeee. The Big Ten schedule is looking tougher each week.

Nebraska 45, Northern Illinois 16

The Rest of the World in College Football:

So as I mentioned in my last post, I have created a regression analysis that should be able to predict at the least, win totals for each team. It isn't ready for public viewing because there hasn't been enough games played to get an accurate sample size for each team due to weird bye weeks, that weird Week 0 week, and Hurricane Irma cancelling and moving a shit ton of games around. For example: currently, Air Force is the best team in the nation because they are 1-0 by virtue of beating VMI 62-0. They are projected to win 21.7 games this season. Find everything wrong with that statement, winner gets a cookie. On the other end of the spectrum, Charlotte is the worst team in the nation (which could be true), but they are projected to win -2.4 games

BUT. Of the teams that have played a couple games, I like the prediction that those teams are on. I usually still like to do 3 games as a good sample size when doing computer predictions such as this (the ones I've done in the past have also only been publicly released after about Week 3 or 4 for the same reason) I'll look at it after these sets of games and see if maybe they're ready for a release next time. To compliment this long-term forecast, I will also be bringing back my old, unscientific method, which is more for short-term game-by-game "Who's better than who?" forecasting to see if there are any conclusions or correlations and hoping I can build a case to get a job. (someone pls hire me)

SMH of the Week:

Ohio State! You're supposed to be national championship contenders and you let a fellow contender run away on your home turf? SMH Ohio State. Consider yourselves EXPOSED! Honorable mention to Stanford for thinking they can beat USC on the road. SMH Stanford

Hero of the Week:

This was a little disappointing in terms of picking my SMH and Hero, but for the Hero we will go with Clemson, despite almost slipping into an SMH. The defense completely proved Auburn's overrated offense, however they could not get going on offense themselves, but I'm attributing this to points for Auburn's DEFENSE. Their offense is still trash

Over(rated)Watch:

As I mentioned in last weeks post, another new section! Here we will be monitoring overrated teams and assess their worth in our society, and track to see if they aren't overrated after all!

#4. USC - Being Watched. I think USC is a good quality team, especially with top pick hopeful Darnold under the gun. Do I think they are Top 5, national championship contender good? That has yet to be seen. This week they play Texas, so the result of that game could either expose them or solidify their ranking.

#6. Washington - Being Watched. Much in the same fashion as USC. Personally I think the Pac-12 is very wide open with no clear winner, especially between USC, Washington and Oregon. There is enough parity for some upsets to where the Pac-12 champion will most likely be the one that is left out of the national championship, unless we get to see a clear run away. I do not think Washington is that run away this year. This week they play Fresno State, so unless it's a close game, I don't think we'll be seeing many answers on Washington's case.

#8. Ohio State - Exposed. Coming into the season, I knew Ohio State was NOT the best team in the Big Ten, I'm giving that honor to Penn State until they fuck up. Ohio State has struggled against Indiana, and just got whipped by Oklahoma...at home. They are currently not deserving of a Top 10 ranking. This week they play Army. Another bad or mediocre showing will prove my point.

#9. Oklahoma State - Being Watched. The Cowboys snuck into the Top 10 by virtue of beating bad opponents, as they should. However, this rock-em sock-em high flying offense has yet to be tested and I don't anticipate that test to come until Big 12 play. This week they play Pittsburgh, which is a leg up on the two teams they have beaten, but still nothing credible.

#11. Florida State - Unfortunate Circumstances. This is why I hate the AP voters. Florida State is still 11th because they haven't played since losing their star QB. Are they still a good team? Sure. But they should be ranked lower. It will unfortunately take a proper exposure for them to lose rank. But, if they can prove themselves with their backup, then maybe they can sneak off the list. They get NC State this week, so we shall see.

#16. Virginia Tech - Being Watched. I've never been high and mighty about any Virginia Tech team, and this one is no different. I thought about leaving them off the list this week, but thought "nah". Outside of West Virginia, they have a cake non conference schedule, so we'll need to wait till ACC play kicks in to assess the Hokies (they get East Carolina this week).

#23. Tennessee - Being Watched. This isn't because they're overrated, but since I've labeled others as "Being Watched", it is a fair assessment for the Vols as well. Anything higher than 20 is pure anarchy! They play Florida this week, so maybe they could buy themselves off the list next week

#24. UCLA - Being Watched. Same reason as Tennessee. And I just don't like them. They shouldn't have beaten Texas A&M, but whatever. They play Memphis this week

Properly taken care of, and being low-key watched: #15 Auburn, #19 Stanford, NR Notre Dame

Prediction Center:

We went 4-1 last week since Ohio State can't win at home, which brings the season total to 7-1. Bonus points for only being 4 points off of USC's total in their win. Only two games this week though.

Tennessee @ Florida - Florida 27, Tennessee 13

Too much defense for Tennessee to break through. IF they do somehow win, I will give temporary credit to Tennessee for being competent. But we all know that won't be happening.

Clemson @ Louisville - Clemson 24, Louisville 21

Game of the night, and what a game it will be. An almost virtual toss up on teams that could be on the verge of exposure. Clemson has killer defense that should be able to contain Lamar Jackson, but how much offense can Clemson truly put up? They got stiffled by a stiff Auburn, but Louisville has shown some cracks against Purdue and North Carolina, which are yes, above average offenses. I don't think Clemson goes on into the playoffs, but this game will be a statement game for them if they can steal one on the road. If Louisville makes it into a shootout, look for them to take the game at home.

Quack But Don't Break (Vs. Oregon)

Big Red Recap:

Let's start with some positives. Tanner Lee and the offense? Yes please. Any doubt of his abilities were nicely answered against Arkansas State. Great arm, great accuracy, a few interesting passes, but we'll let it slide for the first game. And no turnovers! It'll be a change of pace not to see Tanner scramble for a first down (there were a few times where he could have at least tried). But I'm glad to see he didn't try to force the ball against the Red Wolves. Tre Bryant looks amazing. I questioned why Ozigbo wasn't starting/ever in the game, but seeing Bryant get some nice runs answered that question. O-Line looked great in giving him some room to operate as well as mostly protecting Lee, a nice step in the right direction from them. And the receivers stepped up their game big time. We had question marks outside of Morgan and De'Mornay, but primarily Hoppes and Spielman stepped up to answer those big time as well as great catches from others (it helps when your QB can actually throw the ball)

And now for the negatives. While it was supposed to be close, it wasn't supposed to be THAT CLOSE. Yeesh. What happened to the defense? The run defense looks like they needed that game to shake off some rust, but the pass defense and tackling game is already in mid-season form (I'm saying that sarcastically by the way) Holy shitballs. Arkansas State was smart to go after the secondary, and they did no favors by not adjusting till the second half, only to unravel a bit in the 4th quarter. Almost 70 passes were attempted against Nebraska's secondary. Sure, we can say about a quarter to half of those were kick-out wide receiver bubble screens that Nebraska couldn't defend to save their life, but when the safeties are giving receivers 7-10 yards to work with at the line of scrimmage. why wouldn't you keep going back to the same play that kept getting 5-10 yards every single time except for the two actual stops, and one of the plays was actually holding, but whatever. We won't talk about the refs this time around (WHAT WAS THAT END OF THE FIRST HALF FIELD GOAL).

Point is, Arkansas State saw that Nebraska's secondary is still trash with this whole "bend don't break" and took complete advantage of that while the secondary made zero adjustments. If it ain't broke, don't fix it right? (someone tell that to Nebraska's defense for "bending" and never "breaking") The safeties need to be "choking up" on the line of scrimmage so to speak, more of a 3-5 yard cushion, because Arkansas State receivers were too wide open

The Big Red Breakdown:

Hoo wee. When I heard the game could be postponed or something because of the wildfires in Oregon, I had some relief (but still definitely prayers to those who are dealing with it). This is going to be a rough one. Nebraska is not ready to face Oregon on Week 2, especially on the road. If this was a Week 3 or 4 matchup, or maybe a home game again, I'd be a bit more confident. But nope. This will be an interesting game don't get me wrong, Nebraska is capable of keeping it close, but there are too many results where Nebraska is on the losing end of this stick. The fun part about this game is that it will most likely be a complete shootout. Neither team is playing respectable defense right now. The only saving grace for Nebraska's sake is that Oregon is a run-heavy offense with their top three running backs all being returners, the biggest of which being Heisman candidate Royce Freeman (no relation to the Falcons back). And that's good for Nebraska because their run defense is significantly better than their pass defense, but it isn't quite up to code this time around, so it could be susceptible to breaking against that heavy run. If not, Oregon can get some decent mileage out of abusing Nebraska's pass defense, despite their passing game not being spectacular.

If Tanner Lee isn't a one-game fluke machine however, Nebraska can actually maintain pace with Oregon for a bit. Oregon's defense had a minor scare against sub-optimal FCS foe Southern Utah, however they are much improved from their 4-8 campaign last year. Just about everyone on Oregon is out for blood and revenge. Nebraska needs to force some turnovers in order to keep the dream alive, otherwise I just see Oregon out-gassing Nebraska's porous defense in the end.

The Matchup:

Nebraska O vs. Oregon D: Edge Nebraska. Don't expect Oregon to stop Nebraska the entire day, the only way this goes bad for Nebraska is if Tanner Lee is a fluke and ends up hurting themselves in a game where nearly every possession has to end in a touchdown

Oregon O vs. Nebraska D: Advantage Oregon. The running attack will ultimately be too fast and too furious for Nebraska to keep up with through four quarters. And even if the run defense holds up, Oregon will certainly be looking to the air. The only way Nebraska's defense stays in this is if they force turnovers, or step up their game tremendously from last game. Miss a tackle against Arkansas State, and it'll cost you six more yards. Miss a tackle against Oregon, and it'll cost you six more points.

Special Teams: Actually looks good. Sans the botched return via fumble that threw everything off, the coverage looked good, the returns look good, and Lightbourn settled in nicely after getting his unexpected first year out of the way (Forever 27). Oregon is always speedy though, so the coverage needs to be on their A+ game.

Prediction: Oregon is just too good on offense against this not-quite-settled defense. The game being in Oregon does not help either. Nebraska probably gets one turnover, but a 7-point swing won't be enough. They will have to do more than that to stay competitive. Keep an eye on that point spread though (Oregon favored by 13 as of this post)

Oregon 53, Nebraska 43 (All the points!)

The Rest of the World in College Football:

This year on these weekly blogs, I'll be starting two and a half new segments: SMH/Hero of the Week, and Over(rated)watch. These segments will most likely go hand in hand, as SMH of the Week will focus on any team(s) completely blowing it, preferably against overrated teams/teams they should have beat. Hero of the Week will focus on any team exposing overrated teams (or just lulz in general). Over(rated)watch will be a list of teams who I personally (biased) think are overrated, and will just give a brief update on them. The Watch won't happen until next week so we can get another game of potential frauds or fraud exposure to happen.

SMH of the Week:

Texas A&M and Georgia Tech! They allowed a 34 and 14 point comeback in the fourth quarter, both against constantly overrated/mediocre teams in UCLA and Tennessee respectively. Texas A&M has considerably less excuse because 1) They allowed more points in the comeback and 2) A reason that the comeback brewed was because Texas A&M's starting QB went down, which explains why they only got 7 more points the rest of the way. But how in the hell does that explain your defense completely shutting down and letting this overrated turd in Josh Rosen suddenly walk all over you? Minor props to Rosen for staying vigilant and actually looking fairly competent in that fourth quarter comeback. Although supposedly one of his touchdowns was a YOLO Bomb so we won't give him all of the points. SMH Texas A&M.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech ran over Tennessee for 500 some yards and still lost. 1) Tennessee is always overrated, including the fact that the talent that was there last year is now gone. 2) If you know you're facing Georgia Tech, you know you will have to defend the triple option. There are three things that are certain in college football: Alabama in the championship, Nebraska never winning 10 games, and Georgia Tech will always run the triple option. YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN PREPARED FOR IT YET YOU STILL ALLOWED 500 SOME YARDS WTF AND MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO IT. Yes, the reason why Georgia Tech constantly runs it is because they have the athletes for it, but cmon man! At least keep it to a respectable 300 or something! BUT SOME FUCKING HOW, Georgia Tech STILL LOSES. SMH Georgia Tech.

Hero of the Week:

Maryland! Maryland went down to Texas and sacrificed their starting QB and one of their linebackers to defeat Texas on home field. Texas is still not back and won't be for a while!

Prediction Center:

I forgot West Virginia and Virginia Tech were playing on Monday as a ranked v ranked matchup. Oops. SMH Me. Oh well, we started 3-0 last week hitting Nebraska, Michigan, and Alabama.

Auburn @ Clemson - Clemson 37, Auburn 20

Christ when will Auburn learn. Sure they're better this year and not quite as overrated, but Clemson doesn't look like they miss Watson all that much

Georgia @ Notre Dame - Georgia 31, Notre Dame 27

The only saving grace is that Notre Dame is at home. Georgia is all around the better team in this one, but expect the Irish to pull some punches at home

Oklahoma @ Ohio State - Ohio State 41, Oklahoma 38

The matchup of the night goes to Oklahoma vs Ohio State. Baker Mayfield wants the Heisman, and Ohio State looked briefly sluggish against Indiana, but I'm sure home field advantage takes the edge in this game

Standford @ USC - USC 38, Stanford 24

Stanford still plays some nice, hard, D, but I'm not buying into their offense yet (but they hung 62 on Rice!) I think a lot of teams can do that. HOWEVER, USC did look groggy against a still respectable Western Michigan team. I'm going to buy into "USC hit a tough foe" over "USC is overrated!". At least just this one time.

Vs. Arkansas State

It's game day ladies and gents! That means it is time to bring this blog back (again). Now that I'm out of college, I should be able to dedicate some more time to this, and hopefully the greater time sink will reflect on the quality of the analysis here. Of course we have to start with the objectively biased analysis of why Nebraska will totally go undefeated and be the national champions (lol).

The Big Red Preview:

Alright we can calm down for that, coming out of a 9-4 season with some tight losses definitely stings considering Nebraska probably had their most talented roster since the Big 12 championship game (arguments can be made for the Big Ten championship contender in 2012) where Nebraska could have easily strung out 10 or 11 wins (looking at the tight loss to Wisconsin and wtf happened in Iowa, which would affect our bowl so I'm not counting Overratennesee). This year's roster is definitely a step down, but with a flash of potential, especially for next year, depending how it plays out part in thanks to the schedule. New QB, however he's only here for this year and he is serving a bridge role for Riley's prize boy Patrick O'Brien for next year. Tanner Lee will have some nice targets to throw to like Stanley Morgan and Demornay, and, uhh...Reimers? Ok so WR depth isn't as nice as it used to be, but fortunately Nebraska is stacked at RB between Ozigbo, Bryant, and Wilbon, et al. Let's just hope Lee takes care of the football and makes smart choices. He is the first true passing quarterback Nebraska has had in what, 7/8 years? (looking at Joe Ganz as our last good one, someone please correct me). So scrambling for a first down might not be a high priority in the playbook this year. But lord please let him be better at throwing the ball since he's supposed to be a passer unlike Tommy Armtoostrong.

What about the defense? They got a new ladies man to man the defense, and he's going with a 3-4 defense which apparently has risen questions, especially given the level of play Nebraska's linebackers has shown in the past. What's even more concerning though, is the lack of talent and depth in the secondary. Preseason injuries have hit the depth department, and Nate Gerry's graduation means they are left with Joshua Kalu as the "leader", and, well, he's not that great. Last year's secondary definitely stepped it up from their 2015 near league-worst shitshow edition, but there are still some credibility issues. Having a lack of experience in that area is something I'm not looking forward to and hoping it gets fixed quickly.

So let's look at the schedule briefly; meaning let's take a look at Nebraska's close-ish/key games and I'm circling 4/5 this year as toss ups:

@Oregon - Last year's win looked phenominal, until realizing that 1) Oregon could have won that game had they not gone for 2pt conversions after every single touchdown (seriously, you'd think after failing 2 or 3 in a row you'd get the message that it wouldn't work) 2) Oregon promptly fell off the face of the earth, finishing 4-8, which makes the close win look worse. This year Oregon seeks revenge on everyone that laughed at their miserable record, now loaded with more experience. To make things worse, this year's game is at Oregon. Depending how each team's first game goes, I don't like the way this is lining up. (Loss)

Vs. Wisconsin - Playing Wisconsin is frustrating. In the 5 games Nebraska has played against them since joining the Big Ten, they are 1-4, with the only win being a close win in Lincoln, their first meeting as Big Ten rivals in 2012. Wisconsin went on to promptly destroy Nebraska in back to back meetings, followed by two close wins, two years ago in Lincoln, and last year in Madison. Just once I would like to see Nebraska blow out Wisconsin, and this year it might happen. This year's game is in Lincoln, and Wisconsin has already taken their share of season ending injuries, and their QB is still an incompetent fuck. (Win)

Vs. Ohio State - Remember last year where Nebraska would be exposed when they had to travel TO Wisconsin AND Ohio State in back to back weeks after going 7-0? Well they play them back to back again, but this time in the luxury of Memorial Stadium. Ohio State looked sluggish against Indiana the other night, but I expect this one to not go too friendly in Nebraska's favor. (Loss)

@Penn State - When looking at the schedule a while ago, I liked where it was going with the only super major road bump being Ohio State, but being blessed Nebraska played them at home. Then I remembered Penn State got good. Like real good. Like national championship contender good. (Loss)

Vs. Iowa - Only putting this here for the sake of Iowa seems to always be troubling. I don't think Nebraska will have issues with them this year as most of whatever was left of their talent has gone, and it is at home. (Win)

So this puts Nebraska at 9-3 (woo!) with the potential to be as bad as 7-5, but as good as 11-1 MAYBE undefeated if Penn State shits the bricks of their expectations (or injuries). This always seems to be the range of Nebraska every year, the potential to be great, but not quite a shitshow if that potential doesn't break the right way. But also not a force to be reckoned with. Like no one is ever truly scared to play Nebraska unless it is in Lincoln.

Big Red Breakdown:

But the season starts today (hell yeah!) And while it will be weird attending my first Husker game not in the student section in four years, I'm looking forward to it. Arkansas State comes to town and truthfully, they could not be a better measuring stick of an opponent to start the season. Now they're not BYU "we have a good chance of beating you" good, but they play a very similar style to Oregon, just worse. Historically Arkansas State has been an offensive minded team, but these past few teams have really hit up the defense a bit, much in the way that Oregon suddenly got good at defense (not last year obviously). If Nebraska isn't careful, Arkansas State can punch one in. After a sluggish 0-3 start last year, a change in scheme (and probably playing in the Sun Belt) helped their offensive average by nearly a touchdown in the last 9 games, and they put up one of the better defenses in the nation as well (*cough Sun Belt cough*). This is why I say Arkansas State is more like a B-level Oregon. They play similarly in terms of quick hitting offenses, with underrated shut-down defenses. Which is great! Consdiering next week Nebraska plays Oregon, Arkansas State couldn't be a better season opener. Except Arkansas State plays in the Sun Belt conference.

Nebraska O vs Ark St D: Edge Nebraska. The question marks on Tanner Lee will quickly be answered, however the pressure that Ark St can apply could also worsen these question marks if Nebraska isn't careful.

Nebraska D vs Ark St O: Edge Nebraska. This soley depends on Nebraska's ability to not get gutted immediately. I expect Arkansas State to test the secondary as I'm fairly confident in the front 7 to hold the run as usual, and if they break, this could become an interesting game.

Special Teams: Make De'Mornay Great Again

Prediction: This game could get interesting. It will definitely be closer than what most people will think. Based on what I've seen with other Big Ten teams playing earlier, I can see Nebraska being tied or close after the first half, but then pulling away in the second once they've relaxed and know how their teams play out.

Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 24

The Rest of the World in College Football:

As I've done/attempted in the past, I will be doing some sort of ranking system, especially as I prepare for my impending data career. This year's edition however, I will try to create an actual regressional analysis to back this up. I've already started playing around with it by using last year's worth of data, and while it got half of the Top 10 in the Top 10 at least...the other half were .500 teams (yikes emoji). So this weekend I will be working on getting the last 5 year's worth of data to make the sample more credible and hopefully something can be inferred from that. In the meanwhile; let's see what other teams are doing this week:

Only two ranked v ranked matchups this week, but they're interesting to look at:

Michigan vs. Florida @AT&T Stadium: Michigan 24, Florida 10

Florida comes into this game with enough players suspended to field a full 11-man team, with subs. Conversely, we don't know much about the 11 that Michigan will be fielding themselves as their program got completely gutted by seniors and foolish players who think they're good enough to leave early. I still expect a low scoring affair due to the history of defenses, on top of these facts. Michigan also suffers a great loss by not having Butt, their Tight End. (I just wanted to make that joke)

Florida State vs. Alabama @Mercedes-Benz Not Superdome (Atlanta): Alabama 31, Florida State 28

Hoo wee. Hitting us hard with the 1 v 3 matchup on week 1. Florida State returns a nice young team that showed potential, while Alabama be Alabama on the heels of losing the national championship game. Florida State has a good chance to win here, so I'll cover my base with that statement, while Alabama gets a game-winning field goal.