Thus far, this has been the most complete game Nebraska has played this year. It still wasn't pretty by any means, but it's a start, right...?
So much for that touted defense Rutgers was supposed to have though. Again, this game was more on Tanner's inability to make consistent drives as he threw yet another pick six, leading the nation with 9 interceptions for the season. A little more than 2 per game on average is NOT good, especially considering he's also only thrown 7 TDs. You want more TD than INT buddy. However, he did good enough to get through Rutgers, which is nice because now Nebraska is undefeated and leading the Big Ten West with a .500 record. Woohoo!
The personnel arrangements also looked spectacular as Nebraska played a healthy mix of Wilbon, who actually did great, and Ozigbo, who also did great, as expected. With some sprinkles of whoever that third freshman was, I think the committee approach was a great way to keep each of them fresh and the defense guessing. Wilbon, being a smaller back, was able to find great holes that the line was creating, while Ozigbo just plows right through them.
And there's another point for the offensive line! Woo! Creating holes for the backs and giving Lee all the time in the world to throw his interceptions...really the only bad play all across the board on both sides of the ball came from Tanner on Saturday, and that's not the best news because the QB is easily the most important role on the team. We need to see more Arkansas State Tanner Lee, unless that version was a phony, then Nebraska has a mess on their hands. If Tanner is still seeing play time, then that has to ask some questions about Riley's supposed golden boy, Patrick O'Brien. Is Patrick somehow worse, or is he sincerely not ready? If he is worse, then why is Riley still recruiting? You can see where this domino effect is heading.
I'm still all aboard the "Keep Riley for a bit" train, although my faith in him and Tanner has been dwindling fairly quickly. Coach McDreamy has turned the defense around, so let's see if Mr. Nice Guy can turn the rest of the team around.
The Big Red Breakdown:
We got football on a Friday night folks, and no it's not whatever silly show that's being taken down from Netflix. We got a real life, hard fought game between two Big Ten teams that'll surely bring in those Friday night ratings of...uhh...Nebraska and Illinois? I'm all for experimentation of schedules and shit, but I'm glad the Big Ten figured out this would be a dud pretty quickly. How else am I going to get my disappointment on Saturday? Watch another team's disappointing season? Go to a bar? Look in the mirror?
Anyway, I'm trying to assess Illinois here, and it's pretty tough to get a read on them, because of one of their wins. They beat Western Kentucky pretty soundly a few weeks ago, which is surprising because Western Kentucky is usually one of the better G5 teams, and they returned mostly the same stack from last year's 11 win team. Which when you look at that, makes Illinois's win pretty impressive. But Western Kentucky in turn had to scrap up against Eastern Kentucky (FCS) and comeback against Ball State as their two wins on the season thus far...Illinois in turn got their ass handed to by South Florida, and haven't really played much prominence outside of those two games.
So I'm not sure how to assess Illinois. Preseason they seemed like a lock for Nebraska, early season more of a wait, hold on now. But now. Yeah. Based on both teams performances, I don't know. Which isn't good, remember the last time Nebraska went to Illinois? It really does just look like that Illinois is just there, and shouldn't pose much of a threat, but the last time we underrated a team with Illinois in their name, that didn't end quite too well now did it?
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs. Illinois D: Edge Nebraska. Until we see better promise out of Tanner Lee, I don't think I'll give Nebraska's offense anything higher than the edge
Nebraska D vs. Illinois O: Advantage Nebraska. I wish we kept track of an adjusted defense scoring in football that doesn't count any defensive touchdowns (pick sixes, fumble recoveries, etc) or special teams plays. Since the second half of Oregon, Nebraska has only "allowed" 17 points to opposing offenses (0 for one half of Oregon, 7 to Northern Illinois, and 10 to Rutgers), good for 6.8 points per game when adjusted (half of Oregon plus the two full games). Overall, Nebraska has "allowed" a modest 22 points per game, a full touchdown/extra point less than their actual average. Which means Nebraska is allowing an average of one defensive touchdown per game (Arkansas State punt return, 2 pick sixes from Northern Illinois, 1 pick six from Rutgers, which checks out). Illinois is not that special on offense, so the defense shouldn't have too much to worry about.
Special Teams: Needs to be a bit more special, maybe it's time to try out JD Spielman as full time returner
Prediction: Setting aside the black magic that happened last time Nebraska was here, this should be another fine game if everyone plays course. Including the black magic that happened last time, well who knows how many pick sixes Tanner throws. The last thing Nebraska needs to do is look ahead to the next two death weeks.
Nebraska 27, Illinois 17 (the scores reflects a closer game, but remember we need to account for one pick six. And yes I know that's the same score as last week shush.)
(If anyone is wondering the process I take with finding pictures as my "cover"; I usually just go with the most ridiculous one I haven't used through Google. Or relevancy if possible. Or both!)
The Rest of the Week in College Football:
I've somewhat given up on my other short term rankings that I normally do. Takes too much effort for my patience currently until I can think of another, easier way to incorporate a strength of schedule (maybe I'll have to resort to arbitrary numbers provided by ESPN, bleh). I am very content with how the regression is turning out, considering I just pull the offensive stats and defensive stats into Excel, combine and overwrite them on my master sheet that has the regression formula properly referenced, then bam. Takes no more than 10 minutes. Science yo.
Regression Rankings:
Fine, I guess we can have Central Florida included, but they've only played 2 games. Still not including actual win predictions as the Top 10 is still slated for over 15, but since that number is headed in the right direction, we should be good for official-ness next week. Nebraska is currently repping a solid 6.44 wins, so take that for what it is worth
* = Central Florida was technically #1 last week, the changes reflect the fact they were left off and not considered
1) Central Florida (New*)
2) Washington (-)
3) Wisconsin (Up 6)
4) Alabama (Up 15)
5) TCU (Up 2)
6) Penn State (Down 5)
7) Oklahoma (Up 1)
8) Virginia Tech (Up 8)
9) Minnesota (Up 5)
10) Oregon (Down 6)
11) Wake Forest (Down 5)
12) Miami (Up 3)
13) Clemson (Up 4)
14) UTSA (Up 4)
15) Kansas State (Up 5)
16) South Florida (New)
17) Oklahoma State (Down 12)
18) Duke (Down 6)
19) Texas Tech (Down 6)
20) West Virginia (Up 5)
21) Washington State (New)
22) Utah (-)
23) Auburn (New)
24) Arizona (Down 13)
25) Georgia (New)
...
85) Nebraska (Up 7)
...
95) Illinois
...
126) Georgia Southern (New)
127) Charlotte (Down 1**)
128) San Jose State (New)
129) UTEP (Up 1**)
130) East Carolina^ (Down 1**)
** = We can assume that Central Florida would not have been a Bottom 5 team. UTEP was last week's worst team, but at 129th, since Central Florida was omitted. So even though they are still at 129th, they moved up from not the worst team ever
^ = Because of Hurricane Irma and thus, a really fucked up American Conference schedule, East Carolina and Uconn played a game on Sunday that was not recognized by the site I get my data from, as it was originally supposed to be played in like late October. So it was not reflected. Hopefully next week it will be.
Should these rankings be reflective, here are the current championship match-ups!
Pac-12: Washington vs. Utah (North vs. South)
Big Ten: Wisconsin vs. Penn State (West vs. East)
SEC: Alabama vs. Georgia (West vs. East)
Big 12: TCU vs. Oklahoma (Top 2)
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest (Coastal vs. Atlantic)
Best G5 Team: UTSA
***Editors Note***: It has occurred to me on my way back from work that yes, Central Florida is indeed the best G5 team. However I still view it as a faux pas given their screwy schedule. I blame the Friday night game and having to put this up a day earlier as the fault in this. But the point my model is making still stands, no one is giving a shit about UTSA and they might be quietly having a good season.
SMH of the Week:
Boise State! Yall just got destroyed by Virginia at home. Not Virginia Tech, not West Virginia. Plain old Virginia. A natural force in the G5 picture and yall lose to one of the ACC's bottom bitch at home? SMH Boise State
Hero of the Week:
Syracuse! Despite the loss to LSU, they actually just opened a can of worms that I'll be getting into later. Why is this worthy of praise? Chaos is fun! Especially when it involves debunking potential overrated-ness in the SEC.
Over(rated)Watch:
#5 USC - Exposed. Yep. Let's bring it in folks. USC continues to struggle for whatever reason, and Darnold is just behind Tanner Lee for most interceptions in the nation. Not a list you want to be on, especially when one of the lists you were on was "Pre-Season Heisman Hype". They play Washington State Friday night in what will be a very fascinating game, and prime opportunity for more exposure. Or, prime opportunity to tell me to f off.
#7 Georgia - Being Watched Even More. Alright so here is where the SEC gets fun. Georgia's ranked lives now depend on themselves, Notre Dame, and fucking Syracuse. Why? Georgia just blew out Mississippi State, and yes, I know I said "if there's a blow out then we need to strongly consider that team". So why am I going back on my word? Because maybe Mississippi State wasn't as good as we once thought. Why? Because they blew out LSU, which at the time was super impressive. Now, not so much. Why? LSU almost lost to Syracuse. At home. So congrats LSU, you guys suck now. But that brings us full circle to Georgia to where now their only legitimate game thus far is a close win at Notre Dame. And well, I personally think Notre Dame is overrated. For the sake of Georgia, they better not be. Georgia plays Tennessee this week, so a loss or close win there spells trouble.
#12 Virginia Tech - Being Watched. Let's see how they handle Clemson...
#13 Auburn - Being Watched. Anything higher than 15 is anarchy I say! They play Mississippi State, so we're about to hear from one of these two teams
No one proved their worth from last week
Properly taken care of and being low-key watched: #24 Mississippi State, NR Florida State
Prediction Center:
Another 2-1 week since TCU learned to play offense, but still #winning, which means we are at 11-3 (3-0, 4-1, 2-1, 2-1) for the season. We're finally getting into some meatier games, which means I might not be #winning for long.
USC @ Washington State - USC 34, Washington State 31
Boy. It is really hard to not pick Washington State at home given how shitty USC has played this season. But this is also the type of game that I can see Washington State falling flat on their ass while Darnold returns to Heisman form. Should be a quality #Pac12AfterDark moment though
Mississippi State @ Auburn - Mississippi State 24, Auburn 14
Thank god Auburn still can't score on offense, otherwise this would be a bad look on a team that could be exposed for overrated-ness!
Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 27
Game of the night. Clemson has been quality, but VT is seeking that big win to put them in the ACC conversation, and at home. Does the inexperience of Clemson's offense on the road choke up? They looked good in Louisville.
No comments:
Post a Comment