Let's start with some positives. Tanner Lee and the offense? Yes please. Any doubt of his abilities were nicely answered against Arkansas State. Great arm, great accuracy, a few interesting passes, but we'll let it slide for the first game. And no turnovers! It'll be a change of pace not to see Tanner scramble for a first down (there were a few times where he could have at least tried). But I'm glad to see he didn't try to force the ball against the Red Wolves. Tre Bryant looks amazing. I questioned why Ozigbo wasn't starting/ever in the game, but seeing Bryant get some nice runs answered that question. O-Line looked great in giving him some room to operate as well as mostly protecting Lee, a nice step in the right direction from them. And the receivers stepped up their game big time. We had question marks outside of Morgan and De'Mornay, but primarily Hoppes and Spielman stepped up to answer those big time as well as great catches from others (it helps when your QB can actually throw the ball)
And now for the negatives. While it was supposed to be close, it wasn't supposed to be THAT CLOSE. Yeesh. What happened to the defense? The run defense looks like they needed that game to shake off some rust, but the pass defense and tackling game is already in mid-season form (I'm saying that sarcastically by the way) Holy shitballs. Arkansas State was smart to go after the secondary, and they did no favors by not adjusting till the second half, only to unravel a bit in the 4th quarter. Almost 70 passes were attempted against Nebraska's secondary. Sure, we can say about a quarter to half of those were kick-out wide receiver bubble screens that Nebraska couldn't defend to save their life, but when the safeties are giving receivers 7-10 yards to work with at the line of scrimmage. why wouldn't you keep going back to the same play that kept getting 5-10 yards every single time except for the two actual stops, and one of the plays was actually holding, but whatever. We won't talk about the refs this time around (WHAT WAS THAT END OF THE FIRST HALF FIELD GOAL).
Point is, Arkansas State saw that Nebraska's secondary is still trash with this whole "bend don't break" and took complete advantage of that while the secondary made zero adjustments. If it ain't broke, don't fix it right? (someone tell that to Nebraska's defense for "bending" and never "breaking") The safeties need to be "choking up" on the line of scrimmage so to speak, more of a 3-5 yard cushion, because Arkansas State receivers were too wide open
The Big Red Breakdown:
Hoo wee. When I heard the game could be postponed or something because of the wildfires in Oregon, I had some relief (but still definitely prayers to those who are dealing with it). This is going to be a rough one. Nebraska is not ready to face Oregon on Week 2, especially on the road. If this was a Week 3 or 4 matchup, or maybe a home game again, I'd be a bit more confident. But nope. This will be an interesting game don't get me wrong, Nebraska is capable of keeping it close, but there are too many results where Nebraska is on the losing end of this stick. The fun part about this game is that it will most likely be a complete shootout. Neither team is playing respectable defense right now. The only saving grace for Nebraska's sake is that Oregon is a run-heavy offense with their top three running backs all being returners, the biggest of which being Heisman candidate Royce Freeman (no relation to the Falcons back). And that's good for Nebraska because their run defense is significantly better than their pass defense, but it isn't quite up to code this time around, so it could be susceptible to breaking against that heavy run. If not, Oregon can get some decent mileage out of abusing Nebraska's pass defense, despite their passing game not being spectacular.
If Tanner Lee isn't a one-game fluke machine however, Nebraska can actually maintain pace with Oregon for a bit. Oregon's defense had a minor scare against sub-optimal FCS foe Southern Utah, however they are much improved from their 4-8 campaign last year. Just about everyone on Oregon is out for blood and revenge. Nebraska needs to force some turnovers in order to keep the dream alive, otherwise I just see Oregon out-gassing Nebraska's porous defense in the end.
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs. Oregon D: Edge Nebraska. Don't expect Oregon to stop Nebraska the entire day, the only way this goes bad for Nebraska is if Tanner Lee is a fluke and ends up hurting themselves in a game where nearly every possession has to end in a touchdown
Oregon O vs. Nebraska D: Advantage Oregon. The running attack will ultimately be too fast and too furious for Nebraska to keep up with through four quarters. And even if the run defense holds up, Oregon will certainly be looking to the air. The only way Nebraska's defense stays in this is if they force turnovers, or step up their game tremendously from last game. Miss a tackle against Arkansas State, and it'll cost you six more yards. Miss a tackle against Oregon, and it'll cost you six more points.
Special Teams: Actually looks good. Sans the botched return via fumble that threw everything off, the coverage looked good, the returns look good, and Lightbourn settled in nicely after getting his unexpected first year out of the way (Forever 27). Oregon is always speedy though, so the coverage needs to be on their A+ game.
Prediction: Oregon is just too good on offense against this not-quite-settled defense. The game being in Oregon does not help either. Nebraska probably gets one turnover, but a 7-point swing won't be enough. They will have to do more than that to stay competitive. Keep an eye on that point spread though (Oregon favored by 13 as of this post)
Oregon 53, Nebraska 43 (All the points!)
The Rest of the World in College Football:
This year on these weekly blogs, I'll be starting two and a half new segments: SMH/Hero of the Week, and Over(rated)watch. These segments will most likely go hand in hand, as SMH of the Week will focus on any team(s) completely blowing it, preferably against overrated teams/teams they should have beat. Hero of the Week will focus on any team exposing overrated teams (or just lulz in general). Over(rated)watch will be a list of teams who I personally (biased) think are overrated, and will just give a brief update on them. The Watch won't happen until next week so we can get another game of potential frauds or fraud exposure to happen.
SMH of the Week:
Texas A&M and Georgia Tech! They allowed a 34 and 14 point comeback in the fourth quarter, both against constantly overrated/mediocre teams in UCLA and Tennessee respectively. Texas A&M has considerably less excuse because 1) They allowed more points in the comeback and 2) A reason that the comeback brewed was because Texas A&M's starting QB went down, which explains why they only got 7 more points the rest of the way. But how in the hell does that explain your defense completely shutting down and letting this overrated turd in Josh Rosen suddenly walk all over you? Minor props to Rosen for staying vigilant and actually looking fairly competent in that fourth quarter comeback. Although supposedly one of his touchdowns was a YOLO Bomb so we won't give him all of the points. SMH Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech ran over Tennessee for 500 some yards and still lost. 1) Tennessee is always overrated, including the fact that the talent that was there last year is now gone. 2) If you know you're facing Georgia Tech, you know you will have to defend the triple option. There are three things that are certain in college football: Alabama in the championship, Nebraska never winning 10 games, and Georgia Tech will always run the triple option. YOU SHOULD HAVE BEEN PREPARED FOR IT YET YOU STILL ALLOWED 500 SOME YARDS WTF AND MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO IT. Yes, the reason why Georgia Tech constantly runs it is because they have the athletes for it, but cmon man! At least keep it to a respectable 300 or something! BUT SOME FUCKING HOW, Georgia Tech STILL LOSES. SMH Georgia Tech.
Hero of the Week:
Maryland! Maryland went down to Texas and sacrificed their starting QB and one of their linebackers to defeat Texas on home field. Texas is still not back and won't be for a while!
Prediction Center:
I forgot West Virginia and Virginia Tech were playing on Monday as a ranked v ranked matchup. Oops. SMH Me. Oh well, we started 3-0 last week hitting Nebraska, Michigan, and Alabama.
Auburn @ Clemson - Clemson 37, Auburn 20
Christ when will Auburn learn. Sure they're better this year and not quite as overrated, but Clemson doesn't look like they miss Watson all that much
Georgia @ Notre Dame - Georgia 31, Notre Dame 27
The only saving grace is that Notre Dame is at home. Georgia is all around the better team in this one, but expect the Irish to pull some punches at home
Oklahoma @ Ohio State - Ohio State 41, Oklahoma 38
The matchup of the night goes to Oklahoma vs Ohio State. Baker Mayfield wants the Heisman, and Ohio State looked briefly sluggish against Indiana, but I'm sure home field advantage takes the edge in this game
Standford @ USC - USC 38, Stanford 24
Stanford still plays some nice, hard, D, but I'm not buying into their offense yet (but they hung 62 on Rice!) I think a lot of teams can do that. HOWEVER, USC did look groggy against a still respectable Western Michigan team. I'm going to buy into "USC hit a tough foe" over "USC is overrated!". At least just this one time.
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