The Big Red Preview:
Alright we can calm down for that, coming out of a 9-4 season with some tight losses definitely stings considering Nebraska probably had their most talented roster since the Big 12 championship game (arguments can be made for the Big Ten championship contender in 2012) where Nebraska could have easily strung out 10 or 11 wins (looking at the tight loss to Wisconsin and wtf happened in Iowa, which would affect our bowl so I'm not counting Overratennesee). This year's roster is definitely a step down, but with a flash of potential, especially for next year, depending how it plays out part in thanks to the schedule. New QB, however he's only here for this year and he is serving a bridge role for Riley's prize boy Patrick O'Brien for next year. Tanner Lee will have some nice targets to throw to like Stanley Morgan and Demornay, and, uhh...Reimers? Ok so WR depth isn't as nice as it used to be, but fortunately Nebraska is stacked at RB between Ozigbo, Bryant, and Wilbon, et al. Let's just hope Lee takes care of the football and makes smart choices. He is the first true passing quarterback Nebraska has had in what, 7/8 years? (looking at Joe Ganz as our last good one, someone please correct me). So scrambling for a first down might not be a high priority in the playbook this year. But lord please let him be better at throwing the ball since he's supposed to be a passer unlike Tommy Armtoostrong.
What about the defense? They got a new ladies man to man the defense, and he's going with a 3-4 defense which apparently has risen questions, especially given the level of play Nebraska's linebackers has shown in the past. What's even more concerning though, is the lack of talent and depth in the secondary. Preseason injuries have hit the depth department, and Nate Gerry's graduation means they are left with Joshua Kalu as the "leader", and, well, he's not that great. Last year's secondary definitely stepped it up from their 2015 near league-worst shitshow edition, but there are still some credibility issues. Having a lack of experience in that area is something I'm not looking forward to and hoping it gets fixed quickly.
So let's look at the schedule briefly; meaning let's take a look at Nebraska's close-ish/key games and I'm circling 4/5 this year as toss ups:
@Oregon - Last year's win looked phenominal, until realizing that 1) Oregon could have won that game had they not gone for 2pt conversions after every single touchdown (seriously, you'd think after failing 2 or 3 in a row you'd get the message that it wouldn't work) 2) Oregon promptly fell off the face of the earth, finishing 4-8, which makes the close win look worse. This year Oregon seeks revenge on everyone that laughed at their miserable record, now loaded with more experience. To make things worse, this year's game is at Oregon. Depending how each team's first game goes, I don't like the way this is lining up. (Loss)
Vs. Wisconsin - Playing Wisconsin is frustrating. In the 5 games Nebraska has played against them since joining the Big Ten, they are 1-4, with the only win being a close win in Lincoln, their first meeting as Big Ten rivals in 2012. Wisconsin went on to promptly destroy Nebraska in back to back meetings, followed by two close wins, two years ago in Lincoln, and last year in Madison. Just once I would like to see Nebraska blow out Wisconsin, and this year it might happen. This year's game is in Lincoln, and Wisconsin has already taken their share of season ending injuries, and their QB is still an incompetent fuck. (Win)
Vs. Ohio State - Remember last year where Nebraska would be exposed when they had to travel TO Wisconsin AND Ohio State in back to back weeks after going 7-0? Well they play them back to back again, but this time in the luxury of Memorial Stadium. Ohio State looked sluggish against Indiana the other night, but I expect this one to not go too friendly in Nebraska's favor. (Loss)
@Penn State - When looking at the schedule a while ago, I liked where it was going with the only super major road bump being Ohio State, but being blessed Nebraska played them at home. Then I remembered Penn State got good. Like real good. Like national championship contender good. (Loss)
Vs. Iowa - Only putting this here for the sake of Iowa seems to always be troubling. I don't think Nebraska will have issues with them this year as most of whatever was left of their talent has gone, and it is at home. (Win)
So this puts Nebraska at 9-3 (woo!) with the potential to be as bad as 7-5, but as good as 11-1 MAYBE undefeated if Penn State shits the bricks of their expectations (or injuries). This always seems to be the range of Nebraska every year, the potential to be great, but not quite a shitshow if that potential doesn't break the right way. But also not a force to be reckoned with. Like no one is ever truly scared to play Nebraska unless it is in Lincoln.
Big Red Breakdown:
But the season starts today (hell yeah!) And while it will be weird attending my first Husker game not in the student section in four years, I'm looking forward to it. Arkansas State comes to town and truthfully, they could not be a better measuring stick of an opponent to start the season. Now they're not BYU "we have a good chance of beating you" good, but they play a very similar style to Oregon, just worse. Historically Arkansas State has been an offensive minded team, but these past few teams have really hit up the defense a bit, much in the way that Oregon suddenly got good at defense (not last year obviously). If Nebraska isn't careful, Arkansas State can punch one in. After a sluggish 0-3 start last year, a change in scheme (and probably playing in the Sun Belt) helped their offensive average by nearly a touchdown in the last 9 games, and they put up one of the better defenses in the nation as well (*cough Sun Belt cough*). This is why I say Arkansas State is more like a B-level Oregon. They play similarly in terms of quick hitting offenses, with underrated shut-down defenses. Which is great! Consdiering next week Nebraska plays Oregon, Arkansas State couldn't be a better season opener. Except Arkansas State plays in the Sun Belt conference.
Nebraska O vs Ark St D: Edge Nebraska. The question marks on Tanner Lee will quickly be answered, however the pressure that Ark St can apply could also worsen these question marks if Nebraska isn't careful.
Nebraska D vs Ark St O: Edge Nebraska. This soley depends on Nebraska's ability to not get gutted immediately. I expect Arkansas State to test the secondary as I'm fairly confident in the front 7 to hold the run as usual, and if they break, this could become an interesting game.
Special Teams: Make De'Mornay Great Again
Prediction: This game could get interesting. It will definitely be closer than what most people will think. Based on what I've seen with other Big Ten teams playing earlier, I can see Nebraska being tied or close after the first half, but then pulling away in the second once they've relaxed and know how their teams play out.
Nebraska 38, Arkansas State 24
The Rest of the World in College Football:
As I've done/attempted in the past, I will be doing some sort of ranking system, especially as I prepare for my impending data career. This year's edition however, I will try to create an actual regressional analysis to back this up. I've already started playing around with it by using last year's worth of data, and while it got half of the Top 10 in the Top 10 at least...the other half were .500 teams (yikes emoji). So this weekend I will be working on getting the last 5 year's worth of data to make the sample more credible and hopefully something can be inferred from that. In the meanwhile; let's see what other teams are doing this week:
Only two ranked v ranked matchups this week, but they're interesting to look at:
Michigan vs. Florida @AT&T Stadium: Michigan 24, Florida 10
Florida comes into this game with enough players suspended to field a full 11-man team, with subs. Conversely, we don't know much about the 11 that Michigan will be fielding themselves as their program got completely gutted by seniors and foolish players who think they're good enough to leave early. I still expect a low scoring affair due to the history of defenses, on top of these facts. Michigan also suffers a great loss by not having Butt, their Tight End. (I just wanted to make that joke)
Florida State vs. Alabama @Mercedes-Benz Not Superdome (Atlanta): Alabama 31, Florida State 28
Hoo wee. Hitting us hard with the 1 v 3 matchup on week 1. Florida State returns a nice young team that showed potential, while Alabama be Alabama on the heels of losing the national championship game. Florida State has a good chance to win here, so I'll cover my base with that statement, while Alabama gets a game-winning field goal.
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