I have a love/hate relationship with losses like these. I knew Nebraska was more than likely going to lose, but I didn't expect it to be 42-14 by the end of the first half. Yeesh. Consequently, I did not expect Nebraska to make that furious of a comeback, ultimately to get my hopes up and quickly dash them. Le sigh.
I was expecting the Oregon game to be more of a 7-0, 7-7, 14-7, 14-14 etc etc type shootout, building up to the eventual 42-35 loss, but this was a tale of two Nebraska squads that I was hoping they would do away from this year. First half Husker's featured what was somewhat expected, a slightly competent offense, but an abysmal defense, as Oregon went up 42-14. Lee threw two interceptions in that first half, but that first pick was not his fault. Stanley has to catch that shit. Would that have prevented the ensuing touchdown? Maybe, Oregon only netted 14 points off turnovers compared to Nebraska's lone touchdown conversion. So the 42 that was put up might be a little inflated, because truthfully, aside from the pass defense that is always atrocious, Nebraska's defense played alright. And that showed up in the second half. From allowing 42 points, to pitching a complete half shutout against a high-octane Oregon offense, that is a hell of a turn around. Unfortunately, when the defense showed up, the offense decided to sputter after the first half of that third quarter, and Tanner Lee got exposed a little bit. Two of the four picks he ended up throwing were indeed his fault, one of them looked like it just went straight to the defender. Now again, let's not totally overreact, I still think Lee is a good quarterback in the right offense, but he did look like he was trying too hard toward the end which ultimately costed Nebraska the game.
What we SHOULD pick on, is the god damn defense. Oregon is a run-heavy team. Their top 3 running backs all RETURNED (Benoit rushed for 300 last year, Brooks-James almost netted 800, and Freeman got close to 1000, while being injured), Freeman is also seeking to have a Heisman campaign. The rush was expected, and proudly netted a modest 201. What bugs me, is how the hell does a run-heavy team still rip apart a secondary for 313 pass yards...IN THE FIRST HALF. Oregon has never been a pass-minded team, and to make matters worse, they only returned one starting receiver. HOW ARE THEY SO BAD UGH. Now again, they did a great job of tightening up in the second half. But that leads to the next question. While I appreciate these mid-game adjustments to the "bend dont break" mentality, why can't they just not break to begin with, and play like they did in the second half the entire game? I saw less cushions for the receivers and better ball tracking and tackling, WHY CAN'T THEY MAINTAIN THAT?!
The Big Red Breakdown:
Sigh. Again. I expected them to lose, but those kinds of games where they are close to victory and blow opportunities are frustrating. Fortunately for Nebraska, they get to take their frustrations out on Northern Illinois, in what should be Nebraska's easiest game on the schedule this year (Yeah I know, Rutgers and Purdue look competent this year! And depending how Illinois does tonight, we might lose to them! Woo!). Northern Illinois hasn't been relevant since their 10+ win campaigns with Jordan Lynch under center, and the trend should continue. I originally thought about not doing much research on them, but I get bored at work, and well, the research only confirmed what I figured, with a couple surprising notes.
Just at a glance, the 1-1 Huskies barely lost to Boston College, and squared away an FCS team. I'd say that is roughly average for a mediocre G5 team, so nothing surprising there. BUT, Northern Illinois is boasting a competent defense (or at least as competent as you can get for a G5 team). Primarily focusing on shutting down the pass however, which is unfortunate that Nebraska can't 100% abuse their slightly worse run defense due to the absence of Tre Bryant. So I'm expecting some tightness on that side of the ball for a bit, but nothing that Nebraska can't break out of based on what they have shown thus far. On the offensive side of the ball, Northern Illinois is fielding their backup-QB as well as lacking their main receiver. So maybe the secondary catches a break this time. Maybe.
The Matchup:
Nebraska O vs Northern Illinois D: Advantage Nebraska. Expect some early game struggles, especially without Tre Bryant. But once settled in, this should be a routine slaughter.
Nebraska D vs Northern Illinois O: Advantage Nebraska. Nothing fancy here, maybe this will be the game that the secondary regains their confidence.
Special Teams: More De'Mornay please
Prediction: (Below) Average G5 team coming into Lincoln with nothing too special about them going against a motivated Nebraska team that wants to regain their track into any potential Big Ten bids. Let's work on some fundamentals before Big Ten play pleaaaaassssseeee. The Big Ten schedule is looking tougher each week.
Nebraska 45, Northern Illinois 16
The Rest of the World in College Football:
So as I mentioned in my last post, I have created a regression analysis that should be able to predict at the least, win totals for each team. It isn't ready for public viewing because there hasn't been enough games played to get an accurate sample size for each team due to weird bye weeks, that weird Week 0 week, and Hurricane Irma cancelling and moving a shit ton of games around. For example: currently, Air Force is the best team in the nation because they are 1-0 by virtue of beating VMI 62-0. They are projected to win 21.7 games this season. Find everything wrong with that statement, winner gets a cookie. On the other end of the spectrum, Charlotte is the worst team in the nation (which could be true), but they are projected to win -2.4 games
BUT. Of the teams that have played a couple games, I like the prediction that those teams are on. I usually still like to do 3 games as a good sample size when doing computer predictions such as this (the ones I've done in the past have also only been publicly released after about Week 3 or 4 for the same reason) I'll look at it after these sets of games and see if maybe they're ready for a release next time. To compliment this long-term forecast, I will also be bringing back my old, unscientific method, which is more for short-term game-by-game "Who's better than who?" forecasting to see if there are any conclusions or correlations and hoping I can build a case to get a job. (someone pls hire me)
SMH of the Week:
Ohio State! You're supposed to be national championship contenders and you let a fellow contender run away on your home turf? SMH Ohio State. Consider yourselves EXPOSED! Honorable mention to Stanford for thinking they can beat USC on the road. SMH Stanford
Hero of the Week:
This was a little disappointing in terms of picking my SMH and Hero, but for the Hero we will go with Clemson, despite almost slipping into an SMH. The defense completely proved Auburn's overrated offense, however they could not get going on offense themselves, but I'm attributing this to points for Auburn's DEFENSE. Their offense is still trash
Over(rated)Watch:
As I mentioned in last weeks post, another new section! Here we will be monitoring overrated teams and assess their worth in our society, and track to see if they aren't overrated after all!
#4. USC - Being Watched. I think USC is a good quality team, especially with top pick hopeful Darnold under the gun. Do I think they are Top 5, national championship contender good? That has yet to be seen. This week they play Texas, so the result of that game could either expose them or solidify their ranking.
#6. Washington - Being Watched. Much in the same fashion as USC. Personally I think the Pac-12 is very wide open with no clear winner, especially between USC, Washington and Oregon. There is enough parity for some upsets to where the Pac-12 champion will most likely be the one that is left out of the national championship, unless we get to see a clear run away. I do not think Washington is that run away this year. This week they play Fresno State, so unless it's a close game, I don't think we'll be seeing many answers on Washington's case.
#8. Ohio State - Exposed. Coming into the season, I knew Ohio State was NOT the best team in the Big Ten, I'm giving that honor to Penn State until they fuck up. Ohio State has struggled against Indiana, and just got whipped by Oklahoma...at home. They are currently not deserving of a Top 10 ranking. This week they play Army. Another bad or mediocre showing will prove my point.
#9. Oklahoma State - Being Watched. The Cowboys snuck into the Top 10 by virtue of beating bad opponents, as they should. However, this rock-em sock-em high flying offense has yet to be tested and I don't anticipate that test to come until Big 12 play. This week they play Pittsburgh, which is a leg up on the two teams they have beaten, but still nothing credible.
#11. Florida State - Unfortunate Circumstances. This is why I hate the AP voters. Florida State is still 11th because they haven't played since losing their star QB. Are they still a good team? Sure. But they should be ranked lower. It will unfortunately take a proper exposure for them to lose rank. But, if they can prove themselves with their backup, then maybe they can sneak off the list. They get NC State this week, so we shall see.
#16. Virginia Tech - Being Watched. I've never been high and mighty about any Virginia Tech team, and this one is no different. I thought about leaving them off the list this week, but thought "nah". Outside of West Virginia, they have a cake non conference schedule, so we'll need to wait till ACC play kicks in to assess the Hokies (they get East Carolina this week).
#23. Tennessee - Being Watched. This isn't because they're overrated, but since I've labeled others as "Being Watched", it is a fair assessment for the Vols as well. Anything higher than 20 is pure anarchy! They play Florida this week, so maybe they could buy themselves off the list next week
#24. UCLA - Being Watched. Same reason as Tennessee. And I just don't like them. They shouldn't have beaten Texas A&M, but whatever. They play Memphis this week
Properly taken care of, and being low-key watched: #15 Auburn, #19 Stanford, NR Notre Dame
Prediction Center:
We went 4-1 last week since Ohio State can't win at home, which brings the season total to 7-1. Bonus points for only being 4 points off of USC's total in their win. Only two games this week though.
Tennessee @ Florida - Florida 27, Tennessee 13
Too much defense for Tennessee to break through. IF they do somehow win, I will give temporary credit to Tennessee for being competent. But we all know that won't be happening.
Clemson @ Louisville - Clemson 24, Louisville 21
Game of the night, and what a game it will be. An almost virtual toss up on teams that could be on the verge of exposure. Clemson has killer defense that should be able to contain Lamar Jackson, but how much offense can Clemson truly put up? They got stiffled by a stiff Auburn, but Louisville has shown some cracks against Purdue and North Carolina, which are yes, above average offenses. I don't think Clemson goes on into the playoffs, but this game will be a statement game for them if they can steal one on the road. If Louisville makes it into a shootout, look for them to take the game at home.
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