Twas the Night Before a Bowl Game...

...when all through the stadium, not a creature was stirring. Except Mike Riley who gets his final shot of redemption for the year against UCLA. I was very critical earlier when I said at 5-7 Nebraska doesn't deserve to go to a bowl game and it's a nasty blow to what UCLA has done to go to a bowl game to play a team with such a shoddy record when they were close to going to the Pac-12 title game. All of that aside, there is a game tomorrow and everyone needs to deal with that fact. UCLA has dealt with injuries that could have perhaps gave them the extra boost to get into the title game, and Nebraska has dealt with Tommy Armstrong. Whichever is worse, you decide.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year - Part 2 (The Part People Care About)

Now the fun part! Let's go bowling folks. 41 times. This time I'll be competing straight up against my computer so there won't be any haters. But bowl games are tougher as they are just one and done, which means no home field, and all motivation. One team may want to be there to prove themselves, while the opponent may have gotten stuck there...A lot of close matchups (as bowl games should be) so most of these predictions go either way and are usually within a touchdown spread.

Editors Note: Last year's formula provided a 70% success rate against my 50% picking skillz

(Source: USA Today)


New Mexico Bowl: Arizona vs. New Mexico - Computer: Arizona 34-30. Me: Arizona 31-27

Much like most of these bowl games, it will be fairly competitive. New Mexico did have a nice season coming out of the Mountain West, but Arizona should be able to edge them.

Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs Utah - Computer: Utah 28-24. Me: BYU 31-30

One of the first truly close games of the bowl season comes to you courtesy of the battle of Utah...in Las Vegas. A great Utah defense versus a relentless offense. BYU with a small additional defensive edge however. This one I'll admit I was going back and forth with, but I'll fight my computer. (And lose)

Camellia Bowl: Ohio vs Appalachian State - Computer: Ohio 24-21. Me: App State 27-20

Both teams looked pretty damn good...unfortunately Ohio's was early in the season and App State came alive recently...gotta go with the hot hand on this one computer.

Cure Bowl: San Jose State vs Georgia State - Computer: SJSU 30-27. Me: SJSU 34-24

San Jose State has been playing meh ball all year, but so has Georgia State, and Georgia State is in a weaker conference...

New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech - Computer: Tech 34-31. Me: Tech 38-31

A slightly disappointing season for Louisiana Tech will get met with a solid season from Arkansas State (motivational factor alert!) Both teams know how to score points, so this one will be the first close shootout of the bowl season, but Louisiana Tech knows how to do it better. And small home field advantage.

Miami Beach Bowl: Western Kentucky vs South Florida - Computer: Kentucky 31-28. Me: Kentucky 41-31

Another potential shootout bowl with a small home field advantage favoring the Bulls, however Western Kentucky has been one of the most underrated teams all year long.

Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron vs Utah State - Computer: Akron 24-21. Me: Utah State 31-21

Interesting choice computer...mind you this is the same Utah State team who hung up 52 on Boise State and has stayed very competitive in all of their games. Akron doesn't have much going for them, but we'll see if my computer isn't blowing smoke.

Boca Raton Bowl: Temple vs Toledo - Computer: Temple 28-27. Me: Temple 27-24

Another very fun to watch matchup pits two teams that had really phenomenal seasons against each other. Sadly one has to win. Survey says that team will be Temple and that brutal defense. (Can't we just all give them medals? I guess that's what the bowl game in of itself is for...)

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State vs Northern Illinois - Computer: Boise 31-28. Me: Boise 31-28

Northern Illinois hasn't been the same since Jordan Lynch left, Boise State has seen better days themselves. Pity party bowl game! I'll take my computer on this one.

GoDaddy Bowl: Georgia Southern vs Bowling Green - Computer: Bowling 34-31. Me: Bowling 38-27

Georgia Southern is a great story, they transitioned after being an FCS powerhouse (much like Appalachian State has) to be a very solid mediocre FBS team, they got a great matchup against Bowling Green, who has also been a very underrated team. But the computer and I are taking the established FBS squad on this one. (Editors Note: Speaking of adjusting bowl games, Western Kentucky/Bowling Green would be a GREAT game to watch, mostly because they would just be flying down the field non stop. In turn, Georgia Southern/South Florida would still be a great matchup)

Bahamas Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs Western Michigan - Computer: Michigan 31-30. Me: Michigan 34-31

Damn, if Nebraska wasn't in the Big Ten, they maybe would've gone to the Bahamas. Not a bad reward for those non-major conference teams. In other news, this could either be a shootout or a runaway game for Western Michigan, who I must remind you, gave Michigan State a run for their money earlier in the year. (But then I'd have to see pictures of my Scarlet/Cheer friends and be utterly jealous that they got to travel there)

Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State vs Cincy - Computer: Cincy 30-27. Me: SDSU 34-27

Damn, if Nebraska wasn't in the Big Ten, they maybe would've gone to the Hawaiis. Not a bad reward for those non-major conference teams. In other news, this could either be a defensive stalemate or a runaway game for San Diego State, who I must remind you, gave no team a run for their money earlier in the year. They did win the Mountain West though. (But then I'd have to see pictures of my Scarlet/Cheer friends and be utterly jealous that they got to travel there)

St. Petersburg Bowl: Uconn vs Marshall - Computer: Uconn 21-17. Me: Marshall 27-15

Uconn has actually played some interesting games this year. They upset Houston to put a blemish on their record, almost got the best of Missouri in Missouri (pre-Missouri scandals), and they've been quietly one of the best defenses in the nation. Unfortunately, even though they allow less than 20, they hardly score 17 themselves...defense wins championships, but offense wins games. Just ask the 2006 Bears. (Or the Seahawks, the defense/special teams pretty much won them their Super Bowl against the Broncos, but against the Patriots their offense couldn't produce)

Sun Bowl: Miami vs Washington State - Computer: Miami 31-28. Me: Washington 45-38

Shootout! Miami has had a meh season, but shall never be terribly overlooked, whereas Washington State was very very very close to bringing it back together for a Pac-12 title run.

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Washington vs Southern Miss - Computer: Washington 27-24. Me: Miss 34-24

Remember when Southern Miss almost beat Nebraska? Yeah turns out they're actually not bad. Washington turning in another meh season as usual.

Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana vs Duke - Computer: Indiana 30-28. Me: Indiana 27-21

I'm saving myself by constantly saying "Oh close match up here!" as I prefaced earlier, a majority of these are. Just because I agree with my computer (or my computer agrees with me...*Twilight Zone*) doesn't mean that they'll be one sided. Anyway, Duke coming in hot with a bad season, Indiana coming in hot with a better-than-expected season. Points to the team that can run it farther!

Independence Bowl: Tulsa vs Virginia Tech - Computer: Tulsa 30-27. Me: Virginia Tech 27-20

Really computer? I mean, I still hate Virginia Tech as much as the next Husker fan, but really? Not on Beamer's farewell tour. I'll be a mad man if its right I guess...

Foster Farms Bowl: UCLA vs Nebraska - Computer: UCLA 31-28. Me: UCLA 34-30

As of right now I'll give Nebraska some shred of dignity of keeping it close against an overrated team, but stay tuned for details.

Military Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Navy - Computer: Pittsburgh 24-20. Me: Navy 34-24

Navy and Keenan Reynolds with a spectacular season, personally wish it could've gone better because I love it when small teams do great things, but oh well. To those about to rock Pitt, I salute you.

Quick Lane Bowl: Central Michigan vs Minnesota - Computer: Minnesota 24-21. Me: Minnesota 24-17

 Minnesota has had a struggling season, but they should be able to soundly put away Central Michigan

Armed Forces Bowl: California vs Air Force - Computer: California 28-24. Me: California 35-31

California got off to a really hot start with high QB prospect Jared Goff, then they got to the meat of their Pac-12 schedule. I had California taking this year as a step in the right direction and they definitely have done that to obtain relevancy within the Pac-12. A win here will confirm that (Assuming Goff doesn't jump to the NFL)

 Athletic Bowl: Baylor vs North Carolina - Computer: North Carolina 35-34. Me: North Carolina 45-31

This one was supposed to be a good game, but then Baylor got a million injuries that just slows down the team's fast paced offense. Baylor will take a back seat to the Tar Heels own high octane offense

Arizona Bowl: Nevada vs Colorado State - Computer: Nevada 27-24. Me: Nevada 24-20

Ironically no team from Arizona is playing, much like how Hawaii isn't in the Hawaii bowl. Either way this will be a close game contested by two programs that have fallen into mediocrity. And yet Nebraska still gets to play UCLA why again?

Texas Bowl: LSU vs Texas Tech - Computer: LSU 35-31. Me: LSU 38-27

And yet here we get a Texas team playing in the Texas Bowl. Texas Tech is still far and away from even being competitive against a stable LSU team. Fortunately, LSU has lost stability this season after starting 7-0, but then only winning 1 of their last 4 to finish 8-3, this may make for a close shootout, assuming LSU can find a way to score points again

Birmingham Bowl: Auburn vs Memphis - Computer: Memphis 35-27. Me: Memphis 38-20

Lol. I saw that Vegas has Auburn as a 2 point favorite. I'm not sure which Auburn team they're looking at (or which Memphis team they're looking at) but I'm seeing an Auburn team who almost (should have) lost to Jacksonville State, and a Memphis team who out-shot Ole Miss. Memphis would be the one "underdog" I'd ride to the casino and back

Belk Bowl: NC State vs Mississippi State - Computer: Mississippi 28-27. Me: Mississippi 31-24

Mississippi State may have been a one hit wonder, but Dak Prescott is still Dak Prescott, and well, being a one hit wonder is better than anything NC State can say

Music City Bowl: Texas A&M vs Louisville - Computer: A&M 27-24. Me: A&M 24-20

Some late QB controversy in A&M that could put some salt on this pick, but we'll stick tough with them as there are other players on a football team aside from the QB

Holiday Bowl: USC vs Wisconsin - Computer: USC 24-21. Me: USC 34-24

It was supposed to be USC's dream season with Kessler under center one last time, but their coach got drunk and made some interesting remarks. And on that day we learned that a drunk Sarkisian is a sober Pelini. And oh yea Joel Stave is still overrated AF.

Peach Bowl: Houston vs Florida State - Computer: Florida State 28-27. Me: Florida State 24-23

Houston had a spectacular season, hence the shot to take on usually-overrated-Florida State, and they will make a game of it. Unfortunately, I don't think the high flying Houston offense will be able to budge much against the Seminoles D.

Orange Bowl (Playoff Semi-Final): Oklahoma vs Clemson - Computer: Clemson 31-27. Me: Clemson 41-35

If there is one team that can stop Clemson it would be Oklahoma (and maybe Alabama, but one thing at a time). Since losing to Texas, Oklahoma has just absolutely ripped apart everyone they have played, because that is the appropriate response if you ever lose to Texas. But Clemson comes prepared to play, and Clemson is the one team you don't want to get into a shootout with. The dream season continues. This game will be what Ohio State/Alabama was last year. Probably.

Cotton Bowl (Playoff Semi-Final): Alabama vs Michigan State - Computer: Alabama 27-24. Me: Alabama 38-20 

Alabama is just too good and frankly Michigan State isn't 12-1 good. The Spartans are a bit undeserving of being in the playoff, but that's how the lay of the land works. But man wouldn't it be cool if they did win it all and Nebraska fans can be like "Hey, remember you guys have a -1 on your record."

Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs Tennessee - Computer: Northwestern 27-21. Me: Northwestern 24-17

I'll still never buy into Tennessee, and Northwestern is having a dream season of their own with a 10-win season

Citrus Bowl: Michigan vs Florida - Computer: Florida 24-21. Me: Michigan 20-17

Anybody like defenses? This is your game. Anybody like first year coaches somehow doing spectacular with their teams? This is your game. As much as I don't like giving Harbaugh a win, Florida's QB struggle will be the X factor.

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs Ohio State - Computer: Notre Dame 28-24. Me: Ohio State 35-27

Starting to get to the juicier bowl games. Ohio State should be contending for a national title, but reaming Notre Dame will have to do

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Iowa - Computer: Stanford 28-27. Me: Iowa 27-17

Bleh. Can both teams lose? Stanford is overrated and Iowa is a little bit too. Iowa should have beaten Michigan State because they play similar styles of football, except Iowa does it better (hence why Nebraska was able to beat Michigan State but lose to Iowa on the same field, sans-Armstrong throwing 4 INT) So I'll take the Hawkeyes in this battle of the birds. Oh and Stanford is still the Cardinals and Cardinals are gross.

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss - Computer: Oklahoma State 31-30. Me: Ole Miss 34-31

This one can easily be a shootout, or if Ole Miss shuts down Oklahoma State, a one sided blowout. Because we all know Big 12 teams can't play defense, sans-TCU

TaxSlayer Bowl: Penn State vs Georgia - Computer: Penn State 24-20. Me: Georgia 28-17

My computer might know something I don't, with Penn State being one of the better defensive teams in the nation and Georgia not being as hot as they used to be, but oh well projects are fun.

Liberty Bowl: Kansas State vs Arkansas - Computer: Kansas State 31-28. Me: Arkansas 38-30

Kansas State barely became bowl eligible, Arkansas had high expectations, and still have a couple solid wins under their belt, this one shouldn't be very close.

Alamo Bowl: Oregon vs TCU - Computer: TCU 38-34. Me: TCU 45-42

Outside of the playoff games, this will be one of the best games to watch. Two programs that were supposed to be in the national title hunt, got plagued with injuries, but whipped it back into shape. Grab some popcorn for this one.

Cactus Bowl: West Virginia vs Arizona State - Computer: Arizona 34-28. Me: Virginia 31-30

And the bowl season will end with a close, but not quite as compelling matchup, so why not fight my computer.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year - Part 1 (Recap and NFL Chatter)

I apologize for the lack of postings these past few weeks, you know, finals and such. When we last checked in, Nebraska somehow wound up going a pitiful 5-7 on a minimum 7-win schedule based off talent...and they're still going bowling. Bowl games are meant as a reward for teams who do well enough to keep playing some of the big boys, get a week off and go enjoy a nice and sunny place (unless you wind up going to Detroit or something). They're also really nice for the Akron's and the Central Michigan's of the world, those teams in the really non-important conferences who never get big recruits but they still turn out decent seasons, these bowl games are great for them to show the world that they can compete with the big boys.
But this year there was an issue. Ya see, the big hogs at corporate wanted more money in their pockets, so what do you think was the answer for more money and more TV time? More football. As a consumer, more football will never result in a complaint for me, but in order to give the consumers more football, they had to pick up a couple teams that were previously ineligible for a bowl game (You must be at least .500, 6 wins, 6-6, whatever, to be eligible for a bowl game). Which means that we might be watching some pretty lame games in theory (if a team couldn't manage to win at least half of their games this year, then naturally they must be bad, right?) Eh kinda. Here's a quick scoop of that (we'll break it down later, don't worry!):

Turkey Today, Hawkeye Tomorrow

The Big Red Throwdown:

Nebraska will be bowl eligible if they win against Iowa. People are happy to hear that. Why are people happy to hear that we even have the opportunity on the LAST GAME of the year? Just goes to show how shitty of a season Nebraska has had this year. Going from a projected worst-case 7-win team, to "holy crap we need to scrap together 3 straight wins, 2 of which against undefeated teams, just to pull up to .500". And Nebraska has actually delivered, which is great, I like a team with some spunk. Which is also good news for Mike Riley, because right now he only has one double digit loss (albeit to Purdue...) and is currently undefeated against ranked teams (Top 10 even for that matter). That sentence is probably the only thing that's renewing my faith in Riley as Nebraska looks into next year, but they got to get through the current task at hand and that is beating Iowa.
(Side Note: According to my data that's finally up to date, Nebraska is listed as the best team with a losing record based on competitiveness and how they played their schedule, including beating out some winning teams with cupcake schedules. So Mike Riley has that going for him too.)

Wait, you mean Nebraska needs to actually try against Iowa? Who would have ever thought that Iowa would be relevant this late in the season? The Huskers have certainly circled their calendars for this day since Iowa was 7-0, but this is absurd. Nebraska can stop TWO undefeated seasons from happening (someone fact check the last time that happened please). It is already satisfying to see that 1 behind Michigan State's record, especially after they knocked off Ohio State this past week, it would be great if Nebraska can do it to Iowa now too (would make up for seeing that 1 in front of Purdue's record right?)

And by all means, Nebraska has the power to pull this "upset" off. Iowa is a very similar team to Michigan State, decent QB play, a punishing run game, and a stiff defense (I'd say Iowa is better in those last two categories). But that's where Nebraska doesn't slouch; against teams with good running and decent defenses, they've proven themselves to be competitive in those games (Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan State sorta kinda). So while Iowa might be taking pride in the fact that they can plug in the next RB in the depth chart when one gets hurt, I'd say they better have been working on their air game if they want to win.

Nebraska O vs Iowa D: Edge Nebraska. Armstrong needs his A+ game, because any silly mistake, Iowa will capitalize on in an instant

Nebraska D vs Iowa O: Edge Nebraska. Bring on that run game Iowa, Nebraska can take it.

Special Teams: RIP Demornay, I'll probably give this one to Iowa unless they start using Stanely Morgan to return punts

Nebraska 27, Iowa 20

P.S It's going to be cold as balls at the game so bundle up!

The Rest of the Week in College Football:

Playoff Top 25:
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Iowa
5) Michigan State
6) Notre Dame
7) Baylor
8) Ohio State
9) Stanford
10) Michigan
11) Oklahoma State
12) Florida
13) Florida State
14) North Carolina
15) Navy
16) Northwestern
17) Oregon
18) Ole Miss
19) TCU
20) Washington State
21) Mississippi State
22) UCLA
23) Utah
24) Toledo
25) Temple

MY FINALLY UP TO DATE TOP 25:
1) Alabama
2) Florida
3) Notre Dame
4) Clemson
5) Ohio State
6) Iowa
7) Michigan State
8) Oklahoma
9) Stanford
10) Michigan
11) Baylor
12) Northwestern
13) North Carolina
14) Oklahoma State
15) Utah
16) UCLA
17) TCU
18) Texas A&M
19) LSU
20) Ole Miss
21) Temple
22) Western Kentucky
23) Georgia
24) Toledo
25) Wisconsin

So what does all of that mean for my opinions? Well in terms of the Top 4...(barring unforeseen losses)

-Clemson is in (barring a loss to South Carolina or North Carolina (ACC Champ game))
-SEC Champ is in, and there will ONLY BE ONE (Unless the SEC Champ has 2 losses, in which case there will be 0 SEC reps)
-Big 10 Champ is in (Sooo...Michigan State)
-Then it leaves the mess of Big 12 vs Notre Dame. If Oklahoma beats State (which it will), then Oklahoma steals it from Notre Dame no matter how deserving Notre Dame may be (because humans). In which case Notre Dame fans better be Florida State or Auburn fans and hope that they beat Florida or Alabama respectively giving the SEC champ 2 losses and have no SEC team in the playoffs (boy that'd be a sweet sight)

But it's also rivalry week so there are plenty of loaded games with implications to predict; so let's get to it!
Last Time: 3-2, Overall: 37-25

Baylor @ TCU - TCU 42, Baylor 34

TCU is healthy again while Baylor is not. Not much else to say here besides I'm sure TCU is upset at what happened last year that cost them a whole lot...

Ohio State @ Michigan - Ohio State 34, Michigan 27

I still can't believe the Buckeyes lost to a team that played two backup QBs...at home...against a team Nebraska beat haha. Anyway, I like what Harbaugh has done with Michigan, and via long shot technicalities, Michigan can still get into the Big Ten Championship game, but they need to win this one first, which well, sorry Harbaugh. Maybe next year.

Ole Miss @ Mississippi State - Miss 30, State 24

Second year in a row that this game will be a good one, not quite as good as last year, but still good enough to watch. Watch for Chad Kelly to keep airing it out over the not-so-great pass defense of the Bulldogs on their way to a Rebel victory

Florida State @ Florida - Not State 27, State 21

Florida hasn't been the same since it's star QB got caught doping, but they're still a solid team as a whole. Much more respectable than the Seminoles anyway.

Notre Dame @ Stanford - Notre Dame 38, Stanford 27

Remember when I said Cardinals were overrated? Yup.
(Not the bird though, the actual bird is adorable as heck)

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State - Not State 41, State 35

Couple weeks ago I had my money on State...eh not so much anymore. The Cowboys have shown vulnerability against Iowa State and eventually losing to Baylor. The Sooners have the ability to blow open those vulnerabilities.

Stuck in a Rut(gers)

Recap:

Remember when we all speculated that Mike Riley gets wins over Top 10 teams? Well last Saturday was good proof. It was an ugly win, and truthfully 9 times out of 10 Michigan State is winning that game, but once again, we take those. Down 13 going into the 4th quarter I had a good vibe claiming that "You know, given how each team has played, Nebraska might actually pull off the comeback". Then Michigan State killed 12 minutes of the 4th quarter and my hopes were quickly dashed, I'll admit it. And now here we are circling Black Friday as Nebraska is planning on stopping Iowa's parade as well.

Spoiler Alert! | Vs. Michigan State

Recap:

I don't know if anyone wants to read a recap of what happened at Purdue.

The Big Red Throwdown:

But the fact of the matter is, that what happened at Purdue, happened, and Nebraska fans need to live with that result. No matter how crappy the level of play was, that happened. As a result, hell is nearly breaking loose, but the good news is we can now say that we can't blame Armstrong for Nebraska's bad luck. It does boil down to the coaching staff and their attitudes. I almost want to pull up results from the Pelini era of times when we got blown out by a crappy opponent (Don't let the eventual 10 point loss fool you, you don't go down 42-16 against a Drew Brees less Purdue team, ever.) But I don't have time for that if you cannot tell. Articles are being published left and right about what the hell is going on Nebraska and clocks are already counting down and blah blah blah. Here's my bottom line: Eichorst needs to go, like now. But here we are, reports are bubbling that Eichorst is in the works of getting an extension. Uhh no. Fans, donors, boosters all want his ass gone, not sticking around more. Riley on the other hand, the leash is quickly getting shorter because you don't get blown out by Purdue, even if you're fielding a JV team (because Purdue themselves are a JV team). I'll give Riley another year if he can come out of this scrum alive (meaning he beats Rutgers and maybe one of Michigan State or Iowa) but if he loses to Rutgers next week, he needs to go. You can't have 8-9 win talent on a roster and lose to the two worst teams in the Big Ten, road game or not. Purdue and Rutgers can hardly fill stadiums, and half of the half filled stadiums are Nebraska fans anyway. I don't care if we beat State AND Iowa, if we lose to Rutgers that just can't happen in a season.

How to Save a Coaching Job (Or lose one against Purdue)

Recap:

Boy, another close Northwestern game with Nebraska on the losing end of this one. And of course everyone is still calling for heads to roll and what not. But let's look at this game closely. Losing by 2 at home to a formerly 5-0 team (albeit again Nebraska should be close to undefeated themselves) is still something to be looking up to for next year as they'll be keeping most of the same key parts as the team finally understands Riley's system. Here's what I liked about the Northwestern game, Nebraska honestly outplayed Northwestern for the majority of the game. Aside from 2 big QB scrambles, the defense kept Northwestern in check through the entire game (except for their last possession where it looked like the defense shit themselves). But they got a freakin safety. A SAFETY. Haven't seen great things like that from our defense in a while (or as one of my friends puts it, "since the war" that she has never been a part of). So why did they lose? Could we blame Armstrong as usual? Eh we could, he threw an extremely foolish pick-six. But our receivers had butterfingers for a pre-game snack so maybe its not entirely on Armstrong. But that question could be answered this Saturday...

What Direction is Nebraska Heading? (Northwestern apparently)

First I'm apologizing for that lame joke in the title. It's been a long week and couldn't think of anything better.
I'll also apologize that this post is coming out on a Saturday morning right before kickoff...again.
And further more, I apologize that despite it being my fall break this past weekend...along with the fact that this is coming out on a gameday morning, I actually don't have my data up to speed for this upcoming week. So this post is actually going to be very bland and more of a synopsis than a predictor (additionally also because there is also only one ranked matchup this week). But shout out to the AP Poll for recognizing Temple and Memphis finally.

Recap:

Wait. Nebraska won on the road? Against a decent opponent? And was nearly flawless? Well I'll be damned (and I should be damned since I had them losing)

(Ohhhh) We're Halfway There...And That Might Be Bad

Recap:

In short, Nebraska was highly competitive again, no glaring mistakes this time. The pass defense is improving, finally. The reason why I say finally is that it's halfway through the season, and NOW Nebraska is fixing the problem. Shouldn't this be something that should have been fixed after the first game? Sheesh.

Anyway, down 14-20 in the 4th quarter this happened:

Crowd went nuts. Then some old 90s Hip Hop song played, crowd went more nuts. Then Wisconsin drove down the field, crowd gets scared. Wisconsin proceeds to hit post on the field goal try, crowd resumes going nuts, only to have it fade away in the next drive after Nebraska fails to make a damn first down. And they kick the winning field goal this time. Roller coaster emotions man.

Its one of those things that I honestly can't explain, because truthfully Nebraska probably played pretty damn well, and losing the game was the net result of not having a seemingly healthy Pierson-El fielding punts (at least its looking like hes healthy...)

Don't Hit the Panic Button Yet | Vs. Wisconsin

Recap:

When it got to the 4th quarter and Nebraska was only up 13-0, I told myself "Yep they're in prime position to lose." First of all, who only puts up 13 points against one of the worst defenses in the nation? Second, how do you let an offense you've kept in check through three quarters to suddenly get going? Then the touchdown happened and I told my friends "Yep we're gonna lose" Proceeded to take a couple pillows to the face, but I had that coming given the fact I need to remain loosely neutral.


The Big Red Throwdown:

So here is Nebraska. Back to a game under .500 at 2-3. Coming into a season where I slated them at 9-3, and well they've hit their 3 allowed losses...2 too soon. Additionally, Northwestern and Iowa are looking hella scary to play (especially Northwestern, I'm already preparing for the beatdown they'll hand us) and Iowa could be a bigger challenge than once thought. There is a silver lining along with a great joke one of my friends made: "It's ok, Riley gets wins against Top 5 teams." So watch out Michigan State, Nebraska is here to spoil (not to mention the Spartans not looking quite as sharp as once thought but we'll get to that later) But that still shouldn't excuse the fact that Nebraska is 2 wins behind schedule and is looking to possibly not making it to the bowl season. So at the moment I have Nebraska at 7-5, given that Northwestern is going to kick our butts now, but in trade Minnesota looks winnable.

Blocking Out the (Illi)nois(e)

Recap:

Baby steps. The offense took a step back last Saturday, despite ripping up Southern Miss for 610 yards...but failed to pick up 20 more when they got to the red zone...5 times. The good news? The pass defense looked...passable. It wasn't as bad as it has been which is great for showing improvement - "But Southern Miss had 447 passing yards!" Well, they were quick (and smart) to abandon the run game, so all they did was basically throw it, not to take advantage of the weak pass defense (which I thought was surprising they didn't come out guns a blazing). The only miscues that the pass defense made was horrible tackling to allow big plays (which helped rack up some pass yards statistically speaking), but that is a staple of a Nebraska defense. So all in all, the score was honestly closer than what the game actually was, Nebraska was fairly outplaying Southern Miss. Except for when they pulled off the onside kick at the beginning of the fourth quarter. I totally called it but Nebraska didn't listen to me. Put me in coach (as the coach).

The Big Red Throwdown:

So with all of that still in mind, Nebraska stumbles into Big Ten play at 2-2, should be 3-1, could be 4-0. I'm not complaining, but the way Nebraska has been playing could make for a long Big Ten schedule. They open up Saturday against Illinois who has actually looked fairly threatening on offense...which could be a problem. Expect a shootout boys and girls.

Relax, Southern Miss is Next

(First of all this post is going to be REALLY LONG. So grab a snack and get cozy)

Before I get into any recaps, analysis or any other mumbo jumbo, we need to start with the fan base. You guys are why we can't have nice things. So ok Nebraska is 1-2 (should be 2-1 sure, and the way we lost Miami was pretty crummy, so there was a hope for 3-0) But people need to chill the f out. Sure I'm a bit upset at the way the season has started and the way it's gone with those two losses, but I'm a realistic fan. I'm that fan that will initially boo at what seemed to be a bad call from the ref, but when they show the replay I'll be like "Oh, ok, yea maybe he did get a bit of jersey" when the rest of the crowd will resume booing. I'm also realistic in the way that I expected the Miami game to be a loss (sure the first half was frustrating and the epic comeback was pretty epic) but everyone is making it seem like we should've beat Miami from the first minute. No. Nebraska did not match up well against Miami and they quickly exposed the weakness as such.

Forget About the U, It's All About the N

Recap vs South Alabama:

Well that looked better. Sure it was against a bad foe, but that's what bad foes are meant for, to work out the kinks before they get truly tested. The run game looked better...

The Big Red Throwdown:

...but it's not quite Miami better. And this is what I'm concerned about, among other things about Nebraska. The only saving grace I have to say is that Miami is similar to Nebraska in a lot of ways, which makes for this awesome rivalry. Speaking of rivalries, did you not go to the Miami game last year? Oh man, hands down on the top 3 of best Nebraska games you should've been at (The other two being "The Northwesterkatch" (Northwestern 2013) and Colorado 2008 (You know, when Henery broke the FG record followed shortly by Suh's pick-six in the last minute of the freaking game. Headaches for ages man)).

And I am fairly fortunate that I was able to watch the Miami game with some of my good friends, we had a hell of a time yelling and screaming and booing our asses off. Oh and people flipped out when they 1) Did the flashback Tunnel Walk and 2) This masterpiece (Image courtesy of Wall Street Journal)

Just simply because it was Miami. The team that Nebraska faced seemingly every damn year in a bowl game, including a few national championship bouts. But enough dwelling in the past, I say that Miami is very similar to Nebraska because of recent success as well...or lack of. Both of these programs have had high expectations, great talent, and post-season aspirations, but yet seem to fall short, thus putting their coaches on the hot seat to do better, one eventually getting fired (Take a wild guess folks)

But as my tagline/this weeks/Miami Week/the student section slogan says: (Source, Boneyard Twitter)

Nebraska's run game looked significantly better, but it isn't Miami ready. I liked that Newby was getting some more confidence in the running game, but the freshman that shined in the BYU game (Wilbon) hardly got any looks if any! The pass defense still smells so Kayaa will have a field day with that, the only hope is if they can score just as much and enter a shootout. Miami is favored by 3, and I will concur to that spread, sadly. It would be a big win though to counter the loss to BYU

Nebraska O vs. Miami D: Edge Miami. The run game will not last against Miami's front line, and that means they will have to rely on Armstrong's...arm. *shudders*. The good thing is the pass game is looking better under Riley. But I would still never put faith into Armstrong.

Nebraska D vs. Miami O: Edge Miami. Has anyone seen Nebraska's pass defense? Or lack of? Now look at the other side of the ball and bring in Brad Kayaa. Praying for a shootout because Nebraska will not stay competitive in the passing game.

Special Teams: This will actually be the first game where Nebraska will see a distinct difference in what kind of team they really are when they do not have Demornay (RIP).

Prediction: Miami 37, Nebraska 31. (Sorry)

The Rest of the Week in Football:

AP Top 25:
1) Ohio State (Not unanimous anymore...)
2) Alabama
3) TCU
4) Michigan State (Up 1, the win over Oregon is a great confidence booster as the Spartans might be more of an offensive team this year. Watch yourself Ohio State...)
5) Baylor (Down 1)
6) USC (Up 2)
7) Georgia (Up 3)
8) Notre Dame (Up 1, only a matter of time before injuries catch up to them, still overrated otherwise)
9) Florida State (Up 2)
10) UCLA (Up 3, still overrated)
11) Clemson (Up 1)
12) Oregon (Down 5)
13) LSU (Up 1)
14) Georgia Tech (Up 1)
15) Ole Miss (Up 2)
16) Oklahoma (Up 3, perhaps the talents of the Sooners are overrated with their struggle against Tennessee...or Tennessee honestly does deserve some credit)
17) Texas A&M (Down 1, still not 100% sold on the Aggies)
18) Auburn (Down 12, finally the AP voters have woken up and have placed the frauds to where they truly belong (maybe still a bit generous, the season is still young). I actually really wanted to see them lose last week to prove my point, but an overtime win is good enough)
19) BYU (NR, sure they play well, but two game winning hail marys isn't quite justifying a ranking entirely, but I'll bite for now. Not bad for a backup anyway I suppose)
20) Arizona (Up 2)
21) Utah (Up 3)
22) Missouri (Down 1)
23) Northwestern (NR, generous?)
24) Wisconsin (NR)
25) Oklahoma State (NR)
Dropped: Arkansas (Yikes...Toledo wasn't one of the 8 ranked teams they face), Boise State, Tennessee (Shouldn'tve been ranked), Mississippi State (Give them time...I still believe)
Trending: Temple (Hmm, they might be on to something), West Virginia, Toledo (Calm down AP voters), Kansas State, Houston, Florida

What to Watch for:

Last Week 7-1 (Mississippi State couldn't quite pull it off over LSU). Overall 10-4.

Auburn @ LSU - LSU 38, Auburn 20
Why oh why is Auburn still ranked...LSU by a mile. Also because LSU looked poised against Mississippi State.

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame - Georgia Tech 38, Notre Dame 34
Mm, highlight of the week. One of these teams will walk out of this game as a national contender, the other exposed as a fraud *cough Notre Dame cough*. A small fluke if they do pull off the upset.

Ole Miss @ Alabama - Ole Miss 41, Alabama 35
Jk lol this might be the highlight of the week. Who would have ever thought that Alabama's defense might not be enough? Well that's exactly what I am saying. Sure, Ole Miss has only lit up bad teams, but there is a lot of potential to shatter Alabama's defense, mostly because they specialize in run defense...well Ole Miss is getting it done through the air. Bama doesn't quite have enough offense to keep up so hope that their defense does stay with it.

BYU @ UCLA - BYU 31, UCLA 24
The bold prediction of the week...mostly because I can sleep better at night when Nebraska loses to an eventual quality team. And UCLA is overrated. Oh and BYU will win via Hail Mary.

Meanwhile...in the NFL:

Thurs Night: Broncos @ Chiefs - Chiefs 24, Broncos 20
The Broncos did not look so tough against a stout Raven's defense...the Chiefs aren't quite as stout...but they ripped apart the Texans and cost me fantasy points there. Chiefs with home field.

Sun Night: Seahawks @ Packers - Seahawks 24, Packers 21
Neither team looked particularly outstanding in their openers (Seahawks lost...Packers weren't putting away the Bad News Bears) and historically (aka the last two years) the Seahawks have had Rodgers number. Thankfully he isn't my fantasy QB this time around.

Mon Night Jets @ Colts - Colts 34, Jets 17
Colts with a quick fluke against the Bills, but the Bills are also contenders. The Jets meanwhile only beat up on the equally struggling Browns. Luck will be able to bring the air raid brigade Monday night.

Recap on BYU, Preview of South Alabama

Recap

Argh. Those sneaky Mormons. I figured it would be a close game, and frankly the way Nebraska was playing they deserved to lose, but it’s always heartbreaking to lose like that. Oh wait…*cue Northwestern feels*: 

Game Day vs. BYU

It's game day here at Memorial Stadium and there's no place like Nebraska!

The time has come. Ushering in a new era for the Huskers is Mike Riley, the chipper, seemingly-nice guy from Oregon State. Now while his record with the Beavers wasn't very great, he has a great track record of developing players to be NFL ready, which is something Nebraska needs if they want to be successful. They have the talent, but someone needs to whip them into shape of not being total goofballs about their game *cough Armstrong cough* and I think this is where Riley comes in. If he can turn Armstrong into a Sean Mannion, that'd be great. Or maybe turn the slew of RB's into Steven Jackson or Jaquizz Rodgers...you know turn the chumps into talent.

The Big Ten

As I was compiling the data for this one, there were A LOT of local commercials supporting Nebraska with the fight song playing in the background of the commercial and I may have shed a tear of nostalgia hype or two. Safe to say football season is coming quickly and I. AM. PUMPED.

But the story for the Big Ten is an interesting one. Defending national champions Ohio State came out of the blue last year, and they seem to have an endless supply of QBs as they look to defend their title (and they look extremely poised to do so). Meanwhile, Michigan State is behind them trying to upset that bid (the Spartans are more likely not national contenders, but if they can get Ohio State, they can be Big Ten champs at the least). And then there is a slew of average teams (8-9 wins) that can vie for the Big Ten West spot while hopefully getting cracks to upset either or both the Buckeyes and Spartans. Am I being generous for this division? For some teams perhaps, but it’s about time the Big Ten steps up all together.

The SEC

First of all, apologies for the delay on this article. I've been recently hired to be a RA for my University so training for that was pretty extraneous and time consuming, so I hardly had much time to get the data and break it down for the SEC. But finally here it is! Thank you for the patience, and with that being said, the school year is coming pretty quickly so I might be changing up how often/when I will be posting and about what. I'm thinking Fridays will be a preview for Nebraska football (because bias), as well as a tiny outlook for the slate on Saturday (Unless there is an interesting game on that Thursday, then I might post Thursday). Sunday will then be a recap as well as an update on my personal rankings based off of my formula. We'll figure it out, this will be an adventure for all of us, so I appreciate all of the support on this project! The post for the last preview, The Big Ten and the season overview, will be posted at some point, hopefully by next Sunday, but just know that it might not be on a Sunday, like this wasn't on a Sunday.

Pac-12 Preview

In the national scheme, the Pac-12 is a fairly overrated and underrated conference at the same time. I mean this in a slightly gentle way, meaning there are teams that are getting the wrong kind of attention. Which in turn, makes this a very balanced and interesting conference to watch. They have a national contender (Oregon) but a slew of everyone else that can knock out Oregon if the cards are played correctly. But this past week I’ve been sitting here listening to experts call Stanford and UCLA as major contenders for the Pac-12, and even national championship aspirations. What? UCLA first of all lost their already overrated QB (so glad he went to the Packers) so there’s a new guy in town who has seen some looks in games and he’s even worse than Hundley. And he’s in charge of an already mediocre offense. On the other hand, Stanford? Really? Some people are calling last year an off year, but I think that was an accurate representation of this Stanford squad. Really bad offense but they played tight D to keep them in games. The outlook for Stanford this year (which will be detailed later) is roughly the same.

And then here we have some underrated teams that could easily become the dark horse of the conference, much more so than UCLA or Stanford. I’m looking at you California and Utah, both of whom are returning key starters on their forte of the ball (Cali on offense, Utah on defense). Hell, even the Arizonas aren’t getting enough love, they have the power (and the schedule in some regard) to run the table. And let’s not forget, this is USC’s “peak year” as I like to call it. So enough chit-chat and let’s break down the favorites, the overrated, the underrated, and the mediocre.

The Big Twelve...Ten?...XII? Preview

There’s a bit of an identity crisis for the Big XII (minus II) as they have only ten teams and no more conference championship game, which to some critics was the reason why TCU was wrongfully left out of the playoffs last year. Merely because they blew a lead in a shootout with Baylor and ended up as co-champions, despite having one of the more flawless executions during games in the nation. Oh well. That’s just my take on that, I’ll get off my “TCU got screwed” soap box and get back to the matters at hand, and that’s cracking down the Big X this year. Some ADs want to see the return of twelve teams so they can have said championship game so they can have said winner be relevant in the national picutre. My response to that is maybe you should have more relevant teams? The problem with the Big XII-2 is that there is a hierarchy (as I’ll explain below) but any disruption of the hierarchy (*cough upsets cough*) would spoil any long-lasting post season play for the teams at the top. And in a conference like this where defense doesn’t really exist outside of TCU, it can, and will, happen. So let’s get to it:

Blog Notes!

Hey all. Thanks for all of the support I've gotten since the launch of this blog!

Just wanted to let you know a couple things:

1) The Twitter is now live! Follow @TheNumberGames for live reactions and updates on smaller posts because I'm going to try and not spam on Facebook!

2) This week's goal (other than working on the next preview) is to make this look pretty, so be on the look out for that!

Thank you again to everyone! I'm really looking forward to the progress of this!

All-Star Break Historical Spreads

These were the historical spreads I was referring to in making those MLB projections. See where your favorite team stacks up this past decade!

College Football Preview: The ACC

I cannot wait until Labor Day weekend. No, I'm not breaking out my awesome grilling techniques that I totally told myself I'd work on this summer (spoiler alert: I haven't been doing that).

College football returns on that weekend! More specifically on that Thursday with a couple interesting match-ups (I see you North Carolina v South Carolina, Harbaugh's debut with Michigan traveling against a chippy Utah squad, and TCU at Minnesota). So I figured it's time to break out some pre-season projections which I have quickly figured out is a lot harder to do as a college student with a part-time job doing this as a hobby than the people that do this for a living can. The reason why I say that is as I was doing my diggings for the ACC this week, I found out that there is some fairly limited projections on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive, so it's fairly hard to project something you're unfamiliar with (such as me with the ACC). I'm much more confident in my abilities to tell when a team is overrated or underrated AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES, than to tell how a team will perform if data for half of the team is fuzzy. But we're going to give this one hell of a shot, that's for sure:

MLB All-Star Break Projections

Ah the All-Star Break. Highlighted by the Home Run Derby and the Celebrity Softball game. Oh, and it’s also the time where the best players from each league duke it out to see which division will win home field advantage for the World Series. It makes me wonder though if there are any players from really bad teams that know they won’t be anywhere close to making the playoffs that will try their best to throw the game just to mess with any teams in their division that do have a shot at making it that far. Would that be bad sportsmanship? Probably. But sounds like something I would do. The AL holds the rights to host Game 7 as they beat the NL 6-3, but we need to now ask, what AL team would truly benefit from this? Aka, who will be playing in the World Series?

The other cool thing I like about the All-Star Break is that sometimes the team who is leading at the break, won’t when it matters at the end of the season. So that’s what I decided to look at to answer the question above. I took the last decade’s worth of data and took their splits from the All-Star Break to the end of the season (Took how many games they were over .500 and compared). The usual trend is that if a team is doing good at the break, they’ll likely be holding a similar record at the end of the season, if not taking their record to extreme heights (I.e, the Yankees, who have been dominant in the decade, average a +14 game split, going as high as +30. The amazing thing with the Yankees too is that even when they have been struggling as of late, their lowest split was +1. Plus freaking one. They didn’t make the playoffs that year but that’s still phenomenal given the other numbers in this set that I may post later) But of course it could work the other way too. Two numbers that stuck out were a -5 by the 2005 Padres and a -4 by the 2006 St. Louis team that shall never be named, both teams won the division with a negative split. Now yes I see having a split of -5 to +5 is actually average, but compared to the rest of the division winners, and even some of the runner-up teams, a split like that usually won’t get you anywhere.

Welcome to The Number Games!

Greetings everyone! Welcome to my blog, The Number Games, where the odds are always in your favor! (Can I say that? Totally saying that.) This blog will, for the most part, be a method of making my own predictions in the sports world, based off of numerical data that is out there (I’ll do a couple other random things I’m sure as different seasons come and go. And I may rant…a lot…about other random things…see below). People don’t know how much numbers can really tell the tale, so I’m hoping, being the number nerd that I am, I can create more exposure to this phenomena.

The Beginnings:

This whole idea has its grass roots in a cold, possibly haunted, dorm room in December 2013, my freshman year of college. Now December for college students usually mean finals. Well, I somehow lucked out and only had just two tests on the very last week and one massive project due at the second to last week. So naturally, as any college student would, I decided to do something else in those three and a half weeks! Ok, so that’s not exactly how it went down…I was unable to do my project with my roommate around because it involved watching a movie over and over again, and I wanted to be a good roommate and not annoy him with that, so I just did it when he was in class most of the afternoon (This sentence makes it sound like I never went to class, but don’t worry I did. They were mostly in the mornings that semester, which pro-tip to any high schoolers reading this; avoid morning classes at all costs, they stink. Like anything before 9:30, just don’t if you can, you’ll thank me later. See this blog can totally be about things other than sports!).

But this left my nights fairly open, like more open than what they normally were (my friends/floor-mates know what I’m talking about when I say that). So I needed to do something with my time to prevent going insane because I hate studying for tests more than a week in advance, let alone three weeks. So that’s when sports comes in and saves the day! That year in the college football world was the last year that the BCS would be used to determine who played in the national championship game. Everyone seemed to hate the BCS and the computers behind it, but I wanted to know why they’re getting rid of it in favor of a committee, because no matter what, whoever the “next team out” is, will be really, really pissed (See TCU last season, who ended up reaming a very good Ole Miss team in their bowl game, 42-3). So I decided to make my own system taking certain bits of data from every (yes, every) single game played from all (yes, again, all) 120 some teams to see if I can replicate and/or see what the numbers can really say, which made for a very effective use of my three weeks in between doing school work and other “college” things (In last season’s model TCU was #1 and should’ve bumped out Alabama, who actually rightfully lost to Ohio State in the “semi-final” but whatever). From this information I came up with a couple assumptions, some were right, but some still needed work, so I revamped my formulas for this past season and got some semi-better results (and actually did it in line with the season so I didn’t have to do 500 some games at one time), but by no means am I perfect.

Where We Are Today:

I got to thinking though, why should I just stick to college football? (Spoiler alert: The meat of this blog will be about college football…featuring the NFL!) Summer of 2014 was the FIFA World Cup so I decided to take a stab at the other football. Now there wasn’t too much data that could be manipulated with soccer, so some broad assumptions were made but we ended up with this:

https://twitter.com/rahmeenbzad/status/479083759157788674

Whoa. Happy coincidence? Yeah I thought so too. I wanted to launch this blog earlier in the summer but decided I should wait to see if I actually have something here as June seemed to be a very busy month in the sports world, instead of me just blowing smoke:

 https://twitter.com/rahmeenbzad/status/606195213019791360

(Yes, the Warriors needed 6 and Barcelona didn’t need extra time to handle Juventus, but I’ll chalk it up as wins anyway. BUT, if you’re going to sit here and tell me that with all of the bracket possibilities in the FIFA Women’s World Cup, that I got lucky with calling the fact that USA and Japan will be positioned exactly so they will only meet in the finals, and actually win their games to MEET in the finals, then you can stop reading. Actually don’t stop reading, I need all the attention I can get please. Alas no, I did not think that final would be that one-sided, then again no one really expected it either)

Well, that’s enough evidence for me, and this line will never be more relevant in life

 So please, join me as I make a fool/genius out of myself by ranting about a bunch of sports! It'll be slow as I'm just starting this up and need to get used to everything this has to offer and all the details, so this blog will also look very ugly for a while. But have no fear, I intend on making weekly posts (for now, we'll see how my mood is when college comes back around). ALSO there will be an accompanying Twitter account coming soon!

Expect the weeks leading up to the college football season to be about...you guessed it, college football previews.

Authors Note: I can't get the Twitter posts to physically show so you'll have to settle for the links. If someone knows how to do that, that would be appreciated!